NationStates Jolt Archive

here is a problem for NS to chew on the great oil peak of the future how do you think it will be solved (if you have any ideas I think the world would like to hear them)

the easiest solution will be nuclear fission but I have serious doubts about the sensibility of getting Nuclear power for the whole world due to the expense and time spent building it

Links:
http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm (under Crash!)

ASCOP: http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html

EnergyBulletin.net

http://www.keepmedia.com/pubs/Newsweek/2002/09/30/311698/?extID=10047&data=world_oil_production

http://www.drydipstick.com/

I really have no idea how we can stop this from happening without managing to create fusion power (which hasn't been made yet so it isn't exactly reliable)

I don't believe we are in peak oil or gas. There are literally more deposits being discovered than ever before, and in more places. The thing is, these crudes are far heavier than the ones we are accustomed to, so peak oil is more accurately "peak light oil".

The petroleum industry of the future will be primarily devoted to these gigantic reserves; there will be some costs involved as we switch over to the ability to process the sulfurous crude, but at the same time new technology is enabling us to utilize what were once "garbage" hydrocarbons or unsuitable for oil production, like bitumen.

There's a ton of natural gas, more than there is oil. Personally, I feel the next stage of our energy sources will be comprised of natural gas, nuclear, and renewables which will replace oil and coal.

I could always drag that cold fission reactor out of the attic, see if thats any use to people

SNIP

so what about the heavy oil peak at our current rate won't we run out of places to find oil?

the problem with burning garbage isn't the pollution (that was fixed up long ago) its the fact that we are burning resources that we are using in great demand already

so what about the heavy oil peak at our current rate won't we run out of places to find oil?

We'll run "out" of light crudes but not heavy oil. The thing is, however, that these other sources require a higher price (around $30/boe) to be profitable.

That means there will be a higher base price for oil, but it will be more stable than it is now because those supplies are much larger and concentrated than sweet crude. I believe the current high oil price reflects some of that, along with the bottleneck in refining.

Plus, natural gas discoveries are far greater than ever, so a good deal of our oil production can possibly be replaced with natural gas.

so what about the heavy oil peak at our current rate won't we run out of places to find oil?

the problem with burning garbage isn't the pollution (that was fixed up long ago) its the fact that we are burning resources that we are using in great demand already
We need not burn garbage. We can convert it to oil and natural gas through thermodepolymerization (sp?)

Hydrogen fuel cell technology is coming along nicely, and with the huge reserves of natural gas that have yet to be exploited I don' think there much of a problem. atural gas can be burned for energy, one of the results of burning natural gas happens to be hydrogen, which can be processed through a Hydrogen Electric Fuel Cell to produce energy and water. By the time we run out of natural gas we can mine near solar space for a practically limitless supply of hydrogen.

the easiest solution will be nuclear fission but I have serious doubts about the sensibility of getting Nuclear power for the whole world due to the expense and time spent building it

There isn't enough fuel to power the reactors for more than about 40 years either if they have to supply the whole world. Fission alone won't cut it.

I really have no idea how we can stop this from happening without managing to create fusion power (which hasn't been made yet so it isn't exactly reliable)

Well.. the sun performs fusion quite nicely and will probably continue to do so long after mankind has become extinct :P Manmade fusion however has been promised to be delivered "in 50 years time" for.. 50 years now. So that is indeed not too likely either.

Using solar power efficiently would an option - the amount of energy hitting earth every second is *huge* and more than enough for us all.

I think that Hydrogen has potential and so does those fuel efficient Electric/Gasoline cars. The real thing is that we should start laying off of the SUVs and Hummers. Another nice focus is Mass Transit which has it's draw backs (like a union deciding that being payed like CEO's isn't enough).

I think that Hydrogen has potential and so does those fuel efficient Electric/Gasoline cars. The real thing is that we should start laying off of the SUVs and Hummers. Another nice focus is Mass Transit which has it's draw backs (like a union deciding that being payed like CEO's isn't enough).

Using solar power efficiently would an option - the amount of energy hitting earth every second is *huge* and more than enough for us all.

space wise it isn't hugely inefficient and space is not something we have

space wise it isn't hugely inefficient and space is not something we have

Sure we do - plenty of deserts and uninhabited but sunny places on this planet. You only need something the size of France to supply the whole planet.
Solarcollectors outside the earths atmosphere would be even more efficient - but that is getting a tad bit too scifi.

I read an article about this in Fortune magazine the other day. It's still debated by geologists about exactly when the peak is, but no one would deny that increased consumption will make supplies tight, peak or no peak. I see any solution market-based, not government-based, and willl most likely be a mix of new and existing technologies.
The article did contain tips, however, on how to profit from any future oil-triggered recession. Invest in currencies that have few people and many natural resources, like Canadian dollars, and avoid those long on people with few natural resources, like the yen. Oil stocks should obviously go off the charts, but also agribuisinesses, benefitting from higher food prices.

Sure we do - plenty of deserts and uninhabited but sunny places on this planet. You only need something the size of France to supply the whole planet.
Solarcollectors outside the earths atmosphere would be even more efficient - but that is getting a tad bit too scifi.

costs allot of energy to make and the energy will be oil!

There isn't enough fuel to power the reactors for more than about 40 years either if they have to supply the whole world. Fission alone won't cut it.


Not true. We know there's more uranium than that present on the planet Earth. Ever wonder why the core is molten? Quick hint, it has next to nothing to do with the force of gravity *I refer you to Kelvin's Fallacy, if it interests you in the least*

What scientists assume is that the core remains molten because of uranium, and that that means there's a shit-ton of it somewhere. The nice thing about fission reactors is that using them, scientists think we can pull CO2 out of the air and bond it to Hydrogen to make Hydrocarbons to use as feul.

Not true. We know there's more uranium than that present on the planet Earth.

We also know there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Yet planning your finances to take that into account would be quite silly...

*If* that uranium is there, we cannot get to it yet. Even if we could it would require more energy to actually get it then it yields. Maybe that will be less of a problem in the future, but that is a gamble.

And of course- it would still be a finite resource.

So, let's take the theory of the core being made of molten uranium for fact, then we still have one major hurdle to overcome: there are no tools or plans for mining the core of the planet. As for now, it's a product of someone's imagination. So forget about that "shitload of uranium that's bound to be somewhere." While there's sure to be some truth to the 'Peak Oil' theory, I don't wanna bet my money on its truthfulness as a whole. Sure, there are things that confirm this theory, but also many that contradict it. It's a matter of using your head and common sense. However, predictions are in 2007 demand will permanently outstrip supply. Food for thought.

The theory says that peak oil (and gas will happen a while later) means the maximum production capacity is reached and from there there's one way: down. While there are new oil discoveries daily, there nowhere as big as the findings in the 50's and 60's. Mind, the world uses give or take a million 85 million barrels of oil a day, so a 500 million barrel field means shit, so to say, at present. The finder will make a fortune no doubt, but the world only has 5.8 days to enjoy this startling finding. It takes a lot longer to pump it up, but if you had the means to extract 85 mbpd with one amazing machine, then it only takes 128 hours and then the field's empty. Simple math does the trick here.

Next thing is natural gas. While I'm sure there's plenty of the stuff left, but remember: if natural gas becomes an oil substitute, you can count on surges in price as well. It's not that hard to imagine what'll happen when you start relying on one single natural resource. And besides, you can't make plastic or any other oil based synthetic material from natural gas. It's impossible. Oh, and the thing I heard the other day about melting different kinds of plastic together and then make oil out of it? Bullshit. Different kinds of plastics have different melting temperatures, density and other specific properties. A has a melting temp of 320°C and B melts at 120°C, then B is cooking while the other is still solid. Forget this lame-ass theory based on a lot of nothing.

Hybrid cars and hydrogen. While both are very promising and work in reality, you must take into account hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a source. It takes energy to create it, unlike oil which just squirts from the ground. The problems around the cells can all be solved of course, that's just a matter of time. But as for now, with the stubborn attitude of the politicians, oil industry and car industry, I don't see any major changes on this particular part in the coming years. As long as oil remains a profitable resource, it will be extracted from oil shales, tarsands or what-have-you. Fission is, to speak in II or NS terms: future tech. Forty years ago scientists said that fusion was possible within forty years, and what do you know? We did it! But it took more energy to bring about the fusion than what the fusion actually produced. That too is a steep one.

Bottom line: More oil doesn't solve the problem.

here is a problem for NS to chew on the great oil peak of the future how do you think it will be solved (if you have any ideas I think the world would like to hear them)
Maybe if we're lucky, Peak Oil will save us from frying ourselves with global warming. :p

To be serious, of course there will be a point eventually where oil becomes impractical/runs out, but I don't know when that will be, or how to deal with it.