Eutrusca
16-12-2005, 16:34
COMMENTARY: Palestinian politics impacts far more than just Palestine, or even just the new State's relationship with Isreal, and seems to become more Byzantine by the day. Now it seems that a younger generation who are, if anything, even more "anti-Zionist" are challenging the hegemony of Fatah leader and President Mahmoud Abbas in an effort to move Fatah more in their direction. Wheels within wheels within wheels. What do you think will be the impact of this development on Middle Eastern stability?
Palestinian Chief Threatens to Quit
Over Rival Fatah Slate (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/16/international/middleeast/16mideast.html?th&emc=th)
By STEVEN ERLANGER
Published: December 16, 2005
JERUSALEM, Dec. 15 - The divisions in the main Palestinian faction, Fatah, broke sharply into the open on Thursday, as the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, threatened to resign unless a rival slate of younger Fatah members for the Jan. 25 legislative elections was withdrawn, Palestinian officials said.
The apparent split in Fatah is likely to hurt its performance and help its main rival, the Islamic militant group Hamas, which is fielding candidates in legislative elections for the first time.
Palestinians voted Thursday in a fourth round of municipal elections in which Hamas candidates are also running. In surveys of people leaving the polls in major West Bank cities, Hamas was doing very well, apparently set to take control of Nablus, Al Bireh and possibly Jenin, while Fatah was holding Ramallah.
Hamas won about 68 percent of the seats in Nablus, compared with Fatah's 16 percent, according to the Palestinian Center of Policy and Survey Research, and 53 percent of the seats in Al Bireh, compared with Fatah's 27 percent. Jenin appeared to give Hamas only a slight edge. Hebron and Gaza will vote in another round.
The rival slate for the January elections, registered just before a midnight Wednesday deadline, is led by Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the second intifada who is serving five consecutive life sentences in an Israeli prison.
Mr. Barghouti, 46, a popular symbol of younger Palestinian resistance to Israel, is also the leader of the official Fatah slate - a compromise made by Mr. Abbas in a vain effort to avoid the current split.
But more important, other major Fatah leaders in their 40's have joined Mr. Barghouti's slate - most vividly Muhammad Dahlan, a power in Gaza who coordinated the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza for Mr. Abbas, and Jibril Rajoub, a power in the West Bank who has been a security adviser to Mr. Abbas.
Mr. Abbas spoke by telephone during the night to Mr. Barghouti, who agreed to further discussions and reportedly said he did not want to be the agent of Fatah's collapse.
Mr. Barghouti's challenge is reminiscent of his tactics a year ago, when he vowed to run for president against Mr. Abbas from jail, then changed his mind in return for promises of political change.
But there has been little political change under Mr. Abbas, who has remained loyal to older leaders close to Yasir Arafat, who died a year ago.
The Barghouti slate, known as Al Mustaqbal, or The Future, is dominated by younger members of Fatah who grew up in the Palestinian territories under Israeli rule and who did not go into exile with Mr. Arafat.
Many have been Israeli prisoners, most speak Hebrew and they have been critics of the older associates of Mr. Arafat who returned with him from Tunisia in 1994, including Mr. Abbas and the current prime minister, Ahmed Qurei.
The slate includes allies of Mr. Barghouti like Qadura Fares, a minister in the Palestinian government; the Palestinian minister for prisoner affairs, Sufian Abu Zaida; and a wanted militant with the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, Nasser Jouma.
Negotiations were under way on Thursday to rework Fatah's slate of 66 candidates to put more younger members of the Barghouti list in higher positions, to improve their chances of election.
The parliamentary elections are the first since 1996. Half the 132 seats will be allocated from these party lists and half from constituency elections. Voters will cast one vote for a party list and another for a local candidate of their choice.
The number of seats assigned to each party will depend on its percentage of the party list vote, and the seats will be filled from the top of the list down.
More than 400 candidates registered for the constituency voting and 12 lists were registered, including a technocratic independent list headed by the Palestinian finance minister, Salam Fayyad, and Hanan Ashrawi, a legislator and educator.
Mr. Fares told Israeli radio on Thursday that Mr. Abbas and his allies had rejected the results of Fatah primaries and "arranged for themselves places at the top of the list in an unacceptable manner," which he compared to "the old system of masters and slaves."
He predicted that the two Fatah groups would join forces in a coalition government.
But some Palestinian analysts viewed the Barghouti move as a tactic to force changes on Mr. Abbas and predicted that a single Fatah list would result.
"I think it's a negotiating tactic to alter the Fatah list," said Khaled Duzdar, an analyst at the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information. "At least I hope so. But it's also an important moment, displaying the sharp conflicts inside Fatah. A year after Arafat died, nothing has changed - there's a focus on personalities, no political reform, no security reform or law enforcement, no reinvigoration of the apparatus - only promises."
This challenge is aimed at Mr. Abbas, Mr. Duzdar said. "Barghouti is not alone," he said. "There are a lot of younger people on the outside who see the old guard is still dominating Fatah. They thought they would have a part in the current government, but didn't, and they want a serious partnership in the coming government."
"The whole Fatah movement" is at stake, he added. The political confusion, financial mismanagement and the failure to rein in militant groups, including Fatah's Al Aksa brigades, "only helps Hamas" and will help Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the Israeli elections March 28, he said.
In a poll of Palestinians finished Dec. 8, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found Fatah receiving about 50 percent of the vote and Hamas 32 percent, with a 3 percentage point margin of error.
About 62 percent of those polled expressed satisfaction with Mr. Abbas's performance, but a large percentage also favored Mr. Barghouti as a potential vice president or prime minister.
The Bush administration is trying to help Mr. Abbas by pressing Israel to deliver on promises to ease movement out of Gaza for goods and people, including an Israeli-monitored bus service between Gaza and the West Bank that was supposed to start on Thursday.
The Israeli defense minister, Shaul Mofaz, said the service would be delayed beyond next week because of the Palestinian rocket attacks aimed at Israel from Gaza and because of the suicide bombing in Netanya last week, which killed five people.
One of four Qassam rockets fired from Gaza on Thursday landed in an industrial zone on the outskirts of Ashkelon, the Israeli city.
American officials have pushed Israel not to delay the bus convoys, which were arranged after the intervention of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Palestinian Chief Threatens to Quit
Over Rival Fatah Slate (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/16/international/middleeast/16mideast.html?th&emc=th)
By STEVEN ERLANGER
Published: December 16, 2005
JERUSALEM, Dec. 15 - The divisions in the main Palestinian faction, Fatah, broke sharply into the open on Thursday, as the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, threatened to resign unless a rival slate of younger Fatah members for the Jan. 25 legislative elections was withdrawn, Palestinian officials said.
The apparent split in Fatah is likely to hurt its performance and help its main rival, the Islamic militant group Hamas, which is fielding candidates in legislative elections for the first time.
Palestinians voted Thursday in a fourth round of municipal elections in which Hamas candidates are also running. In surveys of people leaving the polls in major West Bank cities, Hamas was doing very well, apparently set to take control of Nablus, Al Bireh and possibly Jenin, while Fatah was holding Ramallah.
Hamas won about 68 percent of the seats in Nablus, compared with Fatah's 16 percent, according to the Palestinian Center of Policy and Survey Research, and 53 percent of the seats in Al Bireh, compared with Fatah's 27 percent. Jenin appeared to give Hamas only a slight edge. Hebron and Gaza will vote in another round.
The rival slate for the January elections, registered just before a midnight Wednesday deadline, is led by Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the second intifada who is serving five consecutive life sentences in an Israeli prison.
Mr. Barghouti, 46, a popular symbol of younger Palestinian resistance to Israel, is also the leader of the official Fatah slate - a compromise made by Mr. Abbas in a vain effort to avoid the current split.
But more important, other major Fatah leaders in their 40's have joined Mr. Barghouti's slate - most vividly Muhammad Dahlan, a power in Gaza who coordinated the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza for Mr. Abbas, and Jibril Rajoub, a power in the West Bank who has been a security adviser to Mr. Abbas.
Mr. Abbas spoke by telephone during the night to Mr. Barghouti, who agreed to further discussions and reportedly said he did not want to be the agent of Fatah's collapse.
Mr. Barghouti's challenge is reminiscent of his tactics a year ago, when he vowed to run for president against Mr. Abbas from jail, then changed his mind in return for promises of political change.
But there has been little political change under Mr. Abbas, who has remained loyal to older leaders close to Yasir Arafat, who died a year ago.
The Barghouti slate, known as Al Mustaqbal, or The Future, is dominated by younger members of Fatah who grew up in the Palestinian territories under Israeli rule and who did not go into exile with Mr. Arafat.
Many have been Israeli prisoners, most speak Hebrew and they have been critics of the older associates of Mr. Arafat who returned with him from Tunisia in 1994, including Mr. Abbas and the current prime minister, Ahmed Qurei.
The slate includes allies of Mr. Barghouti like Qadura Fares, a minister in the Palestinian government; the Palestinian minister for prisoner affairs, Sufian Abu Zaida; and a wanted militant with the Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, Nasser Jouma.
Negotiations were under way on Thursday to rework Fatah's slate of 66 candidates to put more younger members of the Barghouti list in higher positions, to improve their chances of election.
The parliamentary elections are the first since 1996. Half the 132 seats will be allocated from these party lists and half from constituency elections. Voters will cast one vote for a party list and another for a local candidate of their choice.
The number of seats assigned to each party will depend on its percentage of the party list vote, and the seats will be filled from the top of the list down.
More than 400 candidates registered for the constituency voting and 12 lists were registered, including a technocratic independent list headed by the Palestinian finance minister, Salam Fayyad, and Hanan Ashrawi, a legislator and educator.
Mr. Fares told Israeli radio on Thursday that Mr. Abbas and his allies had rejected the results of Fatah primaries and "arranged for themselves places at the top of the list in an unacceptable manner," which he compared to "the old system of masters and slaves."
He predicted that the two Fatah groups would join forces in a coalition government.
But some Palestinian analysts viewed the Barghouti move as a tactic to force changes on Mr. Abbas and predicted that a single Fatah list would result.
"I think it's a negotiating tactic to alter the Fatah list," said Khaled Duzdar, an analyst at the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information. "At least I hope so. But it's also an important moment, displaying the sharp conflicts inside Fatah. A year after Arafat died, nothing has changed - there's a focus on personalities, no political reform, no security reform or law enforcement, no reinvigoration of the apparatus - only promises."
This challenge is aimed at Mr. Abbas, Mr. Duzdar said. "Barghouti is not alone," he said. "There are a lot of younger people on the outside who see the old guard is still dominating Fatah. They thought they would have a part in the current government, but didn't, and they want a serious partnership in the coming government."
"The whole Fatah movement" is at stake, he added. The political confusion, financial mismanagement and the failure to rein in militant groups, including Fatah's Al Aksa brigades, "only helps Hamas" and will help Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the Israeli elections March 28, he said.
In a poll of Palestinians finished Dec. 8, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found Fatah receiving about 50 percent of the vote and Hamas 32 percent, with a 3 percentage point margin of error.
About 62 percent of those polled expressed satisfaction with Mr. Abbas's performance, but a large percentage also favored Mr. Barghouti as a potential vice president or prime minister.
The Bush administration is trying to help Mr. Abbas by pressing Israel to deliver on promises to ease movement out of Gaza for goods and people, including an Israeli-monitored bus service between Gaza and the West Bank that was supposed to start on Thursday.
The Israeli defense minister, Shaul Mofaz, said the service would be delayed beyond next week because of the Palestinian rocket attacks aimed at Israel from Gaza and because of the suicide bombing in Netanya last week, which killed five people.
One of four Qassam rockets fired from Gaza on Thursday landed in an industrial zone on the outskirts of Ashkelon, the Israeli city.
American officials have pushed Israel not to delay the bus convoys, which were arranged after the intervention of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.