NationStates Jolt Archive

Was reading this:
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/12/05/051206001434.cz1ycjxs.html

and noticed this:

Bird flu has affected 130 people in Asia, with 69 of those cases being fatal.

Under the same catastrophic scenario, the epidemic will turn into a pandemic in just several weeks, spreading first in Asia before reaching Europe and the American continent 50 days later.

At the end of week six, Americans will see 722,000 pandemic cases in the United States, by week nine -- 37.4 million, by week 12 -- 90.8 million, and by the end of week 16, 92.2 million cases, according to Leavitt.

What they don't do in the article is a calculation that I felt compelled to do: if the mortality rate matches the current mortality rate in Asia, we'll have 50 million dead in the US by week 16 - if we assume that we'll have some medical care that cuts the death rate in half, that's still 25 million dead.

We're talking about extreme changes here. Chaos. Instability. Mass panic.

if the mortality rate matches the current mortality rate in Asia
I think that would be unlikely. The advanced health services of developed countries should be more effective at identifying cases and beginning treatment early.

I continue to hold to my opinion that healthy adult-aged people in developed western countries have NOTHING to worry about.

You ever see the South Park episode with the "White-man's cure for SARS"??

Soup, Sprite, Day-Quil.

It's kinda like that....

Now older people and children on the other hand. :(

I think that would be unlikely. The advanced health services of developed countries should be more effective at identifying cases and beginning treatment early.
Let's assume we're ten times better at treating cases.

That's still 5 million dead.

i still don't see what there is to panic about when its something you can't do anything about and have no control over (contracting the disease)

so mass panic would be stupid (then again, people are stupid aren't they), but i can understand worrying

i still don't see what there is to panic about when its something you can't do anything about and have no control over (contracting the disease)

so mass panic would be stupid (then again, people are stupid aren't they), but i can understand worry.

As soon as the hospitals fill up, and they have to turn people away, the panic will start.

People panicked in New Orleans. Governments have told their constituents that "the government will always be there to help".

When that promise isn't kept, things get ugly.

Please don't get suckered into this avian flu nonsense. Whatever happened to SARS?

It is very likely that this story has been blown up by media and groups with interest in the drug companies (leading to panic buying, profits and stock rise).

It could also be a distraction technique to divert voter's attention from other Western government PR disasters such as the invasion of Iraq, the looming energy crisis, andsoforth.

Perspective - malaria kills around 5000 per day, but the solution to that was to ban DDT (the most effective eradication method) and stifle research into treatment/cure, not to mention the continued lack of reasonably-priced (or better free) distribution. 3rd world countries are primarily affected, Western one aren't, no profits..

Obtain a better purchase

As soon as the hospitals fill up, and they have to turn people away, the panic will start.

People panicked in New Orleans. Governments have told their constituents that "the government will always be there to help".

When that promise isn't kept, things get ugly.
but rationally speaking, what is there to panic about? either you contract it or you don't - panicking will do nothing at all either way!

then again, my mistake is thinking people are rational :rolleyes:

DO NOT PANIC YOU WILL NOT DIE!!

If Im right, then yay Im right.

If Im wrong you aint gonna bitch at me.

Seriously. Its a virus. We cant cure it. If you get infected, its up to you to fight it. So stop worrying.

I continue to hold to my opinion that healthy adult-aged people in developed western countries have NOTHING to worry about.You might want to look up what sort of people died of the spanish flu. Hint: it mostly weren't the elderly and the young.

Please don't get suckered into this avian flu nonsense. Whatever happened to SARS?SARS was stopped dead in its tracks because the WHO made a really big deal about it.
You'd rather they'd have waited to see if it would turn into a real pandemic before they did something? I'd rather they're too cautious than too lax.

Let's assume we're ten times better at treating cases.

That's still 5 million dead.
That's still under 2% of the population.
Firstly - currently, you will only contract a human form of the 'bird-flu' virus (H5N1) if you work in close contact with poultry. And just 130 people have been affected in Asia, by which I mean Southeastern Asia and China, which has a combined population of almost 2 billion people. 130 people in a population of 2 billion is less than 0.00001%. The H5N1 virus hasn't mutated into a form that can be passed from human to human. I think that's an important point. Also, it is unlikely that it will mutate into such a form, certainly in the near future.
Furthermore, governments have already taken precautions in an effort to stop the virus spreading to their own countries. In other words, stop worrying. You won't catch it. The mortality rate for a developed country is likely to be about 1 in 250 (the UK government estimated 5 million people would be affected, and 20,000 would die). And most of those will be those who are immuno-compromised (ie. HIV/AIDS patients, the elderly, and the young) or work in high risk environments (ie. health care workers).
You aren't going to die. Not of bird flu, anyway.

I'm saying, and I think that the other experts are saying, that when it does go human to human, there will be nearly 100 million sick in the US alone in a very short period of time. More than can be handled by any Western country's health care system.

A lot of people will die, and it will induce mass panic.

I'm saying, and I think that the other experts are saying, that when it does go human to human, there will be nearly 100 million sick in the US alone in a very short period of time. More than can be handled by any Western country's health care system.

A lot of people will die, and it will induce mass panic.
Meh. If it does, that's a good thing. The world is overpopulated by a factor of about 200% anyway.

Meh. If it does, that's a good thing. The world is overpopulated by a factor of about 200% anyway.

Agreed...thin out the herd a little. :eek:

I think there's little point in speculating until the human form emerges and we discover how virulent it is. If it's like SARS, we (that is, The West) won't have much of a problem. If it's like Ebola, we'll (almost) all die. There's a big difference between the two.

You might want to look up what sort of people died of the spanish flu. Hint: it mostly weren't the elderly and the young.
Extra hint: It was mainly young men who had just returned from one of the most devastating wars in history. Is it any surprise they were susceptible to disease?

Most likely it won't mutate into a form that can be passed from human to human before the end of the flu season, but it could someday if it remains in the avian population. Our best home is that once it mutates to produce a vaccine. Though current technology is cumbersome and not capable of producing enough vaccine. The government has to give companies money to develope new technology. All the companies should switch to a cell line based system instead of an egg based system. The goverment needs to encourage the production of excess vaccine in the non-pandemic years by garentteeing to buy so much, so that there will be enough during the pandemic years.

It's quite possible we could contain it like SARS, but there is no garenttee. I think we got lucky with SARS. If we don't have enough vaccine and we fail to contain it then there is no way our medical system can handle it. It doesn't matter that our medical care is more advanced. There will not be enough antivirals, hosiptal beds, doctors, etc. We won't be much better off then a third world country. The only thing we have in our advantage is that our medical care has kept most of us relatively healthy up to this point, so that hopefully we will be a little healthier before the virus strikes us then some of the people in Asia.

Extra hint: It was mainly young men who had just returned from one of the most devastating wars in history.Most people died in countries that weren't even part of the war, so I don't quite see how that can be the case..