NationStates Jolt Archive


Economic Trouble in Europe: Fact and Fiction

Neu Leonstein
03-12-2005, 02:23
I thought I'd clear up a few things about what we know as "Eurosclerosis"...the current issues with some European economies. I'll mainly refer to Germany, because that is what I know most about (indeed there are some pretty big differences between the French and the German model).

Fiction:
Germany has become uncompetitive in world trade.

Fact:
In 2004, Germany exported $893.3 billion worth of stuff. Primary goods exported were machinery, vehicles, chemicals, metals and manufactures. That's a trade surplus of more than 70 billion dollars.
Compare that with the US ($795 billion exports, trade deficit of almost $700 billion) and China ($583.1 billion exports, trade surplus of about $30 billion) and you'll notice that at least Germany is very competitive in world trade (and the trend has been going upwards in recent years, so it's not just a fluke).

Fiction:
Too much regulation is strangling EU firms.

Fact:
Not necessarily. It is true that many small and medium businesses are complaining about red tape - but recent changes and simplifications have not resulted in happier businesses.
Meanwhile, big corporations are making huge profits. The Dax Stock Exchange has won something like two thirds since 2001. And at the same time, all of them cut jobs (and get rewarded by even higher share prices).
Not that a lot of regulation would actually require them to do so...many firms in Germany get by quite well without it. If you actually look at the firms that announce job cuts, you will pretty much always find some stupid management mistake the year earlier.

Fiction:
It's "Socialism" that causes the current downturn.

Fact:
As a matter of fact, pretty much all indicators for the business community are great. It is remarkably easy these days to do business in Germany. There are huge subsidies for anyone who starts a business, or better still, moves into the new, modern industrial parks which are equipped with the absolute latest in infrastructure.
So why doesn't the economy boom? Because the people are too pessimistic. Consumer Confidence is very low and has been like that for years. People make money, but they save it because they think times are bad...and that makes it so.
There is literally no way to change people's minds on this bar some excellent economic results and finally some job security.

Fiction:
Taxes are too high in Germany.

Fact:
Nope.

Germany
http://www.worldwide-tax.com/germany/germany_tax.asp
Tax %++++++++Tax Base (EUR)
0++++++++++++Up to 7,664
15%++++++++++7,665-52,152
42%++++++++++52,153 and over
And Corporations pay a flat tax of 25%.

US
Taxable income++++++++The tax is+++++++++Plus a Rate of
7,300++++++++++++++++730.00+++++++++++15%
29,700+++++++++++++++4,090.00++++++++++25%
71,950+++++++++++++++14,652.50+++++++++28%
150,150++++++++++++++36,548.50+++++++++33%
326,450++++++++++++++94,727.50+++++++++35%
And Corporations pay 35% (plus something for the States I presume).

It is true that the highest bracket kicks in earlier in Germany, but on the other hand, this is still being reformed - and it is a little simpler. And as far as corporate taxes are concerned, the US has had one of the highest in the OECD for years.

Fiction:
Liberal Economic Policies would help the German economy.

Fact:
Well, that is kinda true, but not for the normal reasons. As you can see, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the system (although a few simplifications would still be a good idea), the problem is that consumer confidence suffers, and that corporations continue to sack thousands of workers - which of course doesn't exactly help confidence.
My hope is that sensible reforms will finally kick-start some more of the medium-sized businesses, which will begin to post good profits and employ people. That effect would then continue into consumer confidence and the whole mess could be cleared up.

Conclusion:
The problems Germany has are not like the problems Britain had before Thatcher. Pretty much all major industries have never been nationalised, and those that were have been privatised ages ago.
Radical reforms worked in Britain (although the exact amount of help they did is debatable) because Britain was much more regulated than Germany ever was.

It is therefore important to keep the differences in mind.

Any comments?
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 02:38
I know little on the detail of Germany's economic situation (well except the trade surplus bit, that I knew :p), though what you post here seems to be correct. Germany also has a sizable portion of the Fortune 500 companies, which is a good indication of its economic strength. Its inflation is also not as bad as what it is made out to be (perhaps due to poor consumer confidence discouraging spending?). What I will enquire though is what about its high unemployment?
Emosewa Rebu
03-12-2005, 02:42
Maybe I'm just unobservant *coughdrunkcough* but wasn't that all about germany. And europe has a few more countries therethan.

OK... I made up the word "therethan", but you should be able to work out what it is supposed to mean.
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 02:48
Maybe I'm just unobservant *coughdrunkcough* but wasn't that all about germany. And europe has a few more countries therethan.

OK... I made up the word "therethan", but you should be able to work out what it is supposed to mean.
He may be merely beginning with Germany.

Given that Germany is Europe's most powerful economy, he may also wish to point out that its not as crippled as many presume.The title of the thread is fine.
Neu Leonstein
03-12-2005, 02:51
Its inflation is also not as bad as what it is made out to be (perhaps due to poor consumer confidence discouraging spending?).
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/11/11/germany.inflation.reut/
Actually, inflation has been relatively low in Germany. There was a time when the Euro was introduced, and now with the Oil Prices, but compared to the Euro Zone, Germany does pretty well.
And now the ECB is finally stepping in (should've done that ages ago - either you have targets or you don't, but if you do, you gotta stick to them).

Baribas Summary (pdf-file) (http://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/applis/www/RechEco.nsf/0/4449033D041B16BBC1256FB3004D0967/$File/EcoFlash096_english.pdf?OpenElement)


What I will enquire though is what about its high unemployment?
Well, there is no doubting that unemployment is at high levels. But my point is that this is not caused so much by "Socialism" or the welfare state as it is by the low consumer confidence meaning that the Medium-Sized Business will not employ people - there have been repeated cuts in employee-protection as part of the "Agenda 2010", but that hasn't really shown great effect.
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 02:54
Well, there is no doubting that unemployment is at high levels. But my point is that this is not caused so much by "Socialism" or the welfare state as it is by the low consumer confidence meaning that the Medium-Sized Business will not employ people - there have been repeated cuts in employee-protection as part of the "Agenda 2010", but that hasn't really shown great effect.
Indeed. Whilst low consumer confidence helps keep the inflation low, it also decreases economic growth and thus allows unemployment to increase.

If anything, the Euro has brought stability, not taken it away.
Neu Leonstein
03-12-2005, 02:54
And europe has a few more countries therethan.
Yeah, it kinda has. :p

But when you say "Europe" in this context, you're talking primarily Eurozone nations normally. France has a situation that is a little closer to the Atlee-Legacy in Britain because many industries there have a lot of nationalised parts.
The Benelux Countries are actually doing fairly well. Italy is a basketcase - but it's not that important.

And Scandinavia is very successful with its policies, so there's no Eurosclerosis there.
Vetalia
03-12-2005, 03:16
I think one of the main problems facing Germany is how much of its workforce is employed in manufacturing; in the global economy it is becoming cost inefficent to have large numbers of workers in the manufacturing sector relative to the service sector; if they are able to successfully shift their economy to high-productivity, low cost manufacturing while simultaneously attracting service sector jobs, they should be in excellent shape. This would maintain their strong exports and allow exporters to compete better with lower cost Asian and developing world companies. Germany has some strong underlying attributes to it, but they need to capitalize on them and ease in to a recentering of their economy.
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 03:17
I think one of the main problems facing Germany is how much of its workforce is employed in manufacturing; in the global economy it is becoming cost inefficent to have large numbers of workers in the manufacturing sector relative to the service sector; if they are able to successfully shift their economy to high-productivity, low cost manufacturing while simultaneously attracting service sector jobs, they should be in excellent shape. This would maintain their strong exports and allow exporters to compete better with lower cost Asian and developing world companies. Germany has some strong underlying attributes to it, but they need to capitalize on them and ease in to a recentering of their economy.
Indeed. Britain realised this soon enough, and its economy is in a relatively good state. I think Germany will make the right moves. :)
Emosewa Rebu
03-12-2005, 03:32
Given that Germany is Europe's most powerful economy, he may also wish to point out that its not as crippled as many presume.The title of the thread is fine.

Fair enough, but if germany's the best I will have to tell my government to get the economy moving. By which I mean, go to bed and sleep til the afternoon and forget about it.
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 03:37
Fair enough, but if germany's the best I will have to tell my government to get the economy moving. By which I mean, go to bed and sleep til the afternoon and forget about it.
Germany is one of the world's most powerful economies, let alone the EU's. Which would be your country?
Emosewa Rebu
03-12-2005, 03:55
Germany is one of the world's most powerful economies, let alone the EU's. Which would be your country?

The UK.
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 03:58
The UK.
In terms of inflation and employment the UK is indeed better off. In terms of productivity, exports, corporate wealth and so on, Germany has an advantage. Germany's actual economy is seen as the most powerful in Europe, even if not the healthiest.
Emosewa Rebu
03-12-2005, 04:03
In terms of inflation and employment the UK is indeed better off. In terms of productivity, exports, corporate wealth and so on, Germany has an advantage. Germany's actual economy is seen as the most powerful in Europe, even if not the healthiest.

OK. I love making people think I made an intelligent point when actually... uh... I mean, yes, like I said...
Neu Leonstein
03-12-2005, 04:07
The UK.
UK
GDP (purchasing power parity): $1.782 trillion (2004 est.)
GDP - real growth rate: 3.2% (2004 est.)
GDP - per capita: purchasing power parity - $29,600 (2004 est.)

Unemployment rate: 4.8% (2004 est.)
Population below poverty line: 17% (2002 est.)
Exports: $347.2 billion
Imports: $439.4 billion

Inflation rate (consumer prices): 1.4% (2004 est.)

Germany
GDP (purchasing power parity): $2.362 trillion (2004 est.)
GDP - real growth rate: 1.7% (2004 est.)
GDP - per capita: purchasing power parity - $28,700 (2004 est.)

Unemployment rate: 10.6% (2004 est.)
Population below poverty line: NA

Inflation rate (consumer prices): 1.6% (2004 est.)
All figures from CIA Factbook.

It may not be healthy, but it's still substantially bigger than the UK. True however that the UK's economy is growing faster...but if Germany hasn't gotten its act together in twenty years, then we deserve no better.

Unemployment is the main thing, but what I'm trying to argue is that it is not simply a case of too much Government involvement in the economy causing it.
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 04:10
Which is precisely what I meant. :) Germany is currently the largest and most powerful EU economy, even if others are healthier.
Neu Leonstein
03-12-2005, 04:17
And I found this article about the former East Germany ($400 billion Euros a year are being transferred from the West to the East...not all that much success so far).
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,373639,00.html
only about 60 percent of eastern Germans capable of gainful employment are in fact employed. The average unemployment rate in the region tops 18 percent. According to the Institute for Economic Research in Halle, eastern Germany is short of about 2 million jobs;
migration away from the East continues unabated, especially among young people. According to the Dohnanyi report, "eastern Germany is threatened by a dramatic aging of the population and a dangerous loss of especially well-trained workers and its creative force";
the economy in the new German states has been growing more slowly than in the West for years. The catch-up process has stalled, leading to an ever-widening gap between East and West;
the East lacks medium-sized businesses when compared with the western standard. Companies in the East are generally too small and short on capital;
the costs of reunification consume four percent of the gross domestic product annually. But because economic growth falls short of this figure, aid to the East is eroding the West's economic base;
billions in aid and subsidization policies are no longer effective. Without a "change in course," according to the report, the "need for West-East transfers of funds can even be expected to increase in the future."
Europa Maxima
03-12-2005, 04:19
And I found this article about the former East Germany ($400 billion Euros a year are being transferred from the West to the East...not all that much success so far).
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,373639,00.html
I can imagine this being a source of problems for the German economy. Many forget that part of now reunified Germany was once under Communist control.
Quagmus
03-12-2005, 12:23
I can imagine this being a source of problems for the German economy. Many forget that part of now reunified Germany was once under Communist control.

In a way, unified Germany might bee seen as a model of expanded europe. With the western part paying for the development of the eastern, I mean. I believe this source of problems is developing into a source of oppurtunities though.

Btw, what are your thoughts on the lisbon strategy? eu becoming the most competitive community in the world 2010?
The Similized world
03-12-2005, 12:39
I can imagine this being a source of problems for the German economy. Many forget that part of now reunified Germany was once under Communist control.
For example, I was talking to a German couple I know who told me about an old powerplant in east GErmany.. Before the unification, that powerplant enployed most of the city they lived in, around 25000 people... After the unification, the same powerplant now employs a few hundred.

Things like that are a tiny bit hard to compensate for. Downsizing 98-99% of the people in an area naturally results in a itsy bitsy strain on the economy. Especially when that horrorstory isn't unique at all.
Neu Leonstein
03-12-2005, 13:15
Btw, what are your thoughts on the lisbon strategy? eu becoming the most competitive community in the world 2010?
Great if it works. I hope so.
They should drop the agricultural subsidies though.

Before the unification, that powerplant enployed most of the city they lived in, around 25000 people... After the unification, the same powerplant now employs a few hundred.
That's the kind of thing Communism does. In Communism, everyone has a job. A bit of bad planning means that everyone's just sitting around all day, but hey, at least they have a job.
They didn't handle the unification all that well (put Politics before Economics), and so big West German Firms would come in and started making everything efficient the nasty way. That's what started it all there.
The Similized world
03-12-2005, 13:31
Great if it works. I hope so.
They should drop the agricultural subsidies though.

That's the kind of thing Communism does. In Communism, everyone has a job. A bit of bad planning means that everyone's just sitting around all day, but hey, at least they have a job.
They didn't handle the unification all that well (put Politics before Economics), and so big West German Firms would come in and started making everything efficient the nasty way. That's what started it all there.
No argument, on both observations.

I simply wanted to illustrate how completely & utterly fucked up the situation was, because many - until a few years ago, myself included - don't realize just how monumentally everything has changed, and how fast it happened.

I also agree that the unification wasn't handled very well, but I don't really know how it could have been handled better. Stalling the process would most likely have resulted in a much bigger impact on the economy, and probably would have caused much greater civil unrest... As far as I can tell, it was very much a "damned if they did, damned if they didn't" situation.

Originally I wanted the rest of the EU to help the process along more than we did (we hardly did anything but criticise), but that's hardly Germany's fault.
Portu Cale MK3
03-12-2005, 13:50
Half of the US growth is due to innovation.

Thing is, Europe isn't spending enough on innovation, nor is what it spends now productive enough.

Most of our industrial and agricultural base kicks ass, but that doesn't generate neither employment nor added value. Want to put blame on someone? Blame all those that were unable to push the Lisbon Strategy ahead.


PS: Curiously, should we drop a ton of agricultural subsidies, and put them into R&D, we would win alot more in the long run
The Similized world
03-12-2005, 13:54
Half of the US growth is due to innovation.

Thing is, Europe isn't spending enough on innovation, nor is what it spends now productive enough.

Most of our industrial and agricultural base kicks ass, but that doesn't generate neither employment nor added value. Want to put blame on someone? Blame all those that were unable to push the Lisbon Strategy ahead.


PS: Curiously, should we drop a ton of agricultural subsidies, and put them into R&D, we would win alot more in the long run
Curious as it seems, that is actually the reason the EU politicians thinks the EU is such a great idea. It's the whole point of the excersize.
Lotus Puppy
03-12-2005, 17:07
There's certainly a difference between European economies, but one characteristic that's dragging them down is their extensive social safety net. It worked when Germany first introduced it over a hundred years ago because of a growing population and subsequent investments, but now with a giant age gap, it can't work. Taxes will march higher as deficits do, and even then, the increased tax rates may not be enough to cover them. The best solution would be to lessen this safety net, or better yet, eliminate it. Other than that, the only other way is to lessen immigration limits, but many Europeans would find that solution utterly unacceptable.
The Holy Womble
03-12-2005, 18:01
Fact:
In 2004, Germany exported $893.3 billion worth of stuff. Primary goods exported were machinery, vehicles, chemicals, metals and manufactures. That's a trade surplus of more than 70 billion dollars.
Compare that with the US ($795 billion exports, trade deficit of almost $700 billion) and China ($583.1 billion exports, trade surplus of about $30 billion) and you'll notice that at least Germany is very competitive in world trade (and the trend has been going upwards in recent years, so it's not just a fluke).
The comparison is not fair as the US has its own domestic market of immense capacity to satisfy. Besides, the argument that is usually made is not that Germany has become completely incompetitive, but that it is becoming less and less competitive.

In addition, if we're talking about trends, have a look at the following (http://www.economist.com/countries/Germany/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Data) fact sheet. There is a clear and steady decline in the per capita GDP growth, to the point of there being a negative growth in 2003. Same with the budget balance- it's gone from positive into negative- that considering that Germany does not fund any ventures as costly as the Iraq war and only has a minor share in major peacekeeping missions. In fact, Germany boasts the lowest GDP growth in the whole of the EU since the mid-90s.

Finally, the volume of export or even the export-import balance does not in and of itself indicate competitiveness. A country can make more profit from less export volume if the labour costs aren't high- and in Germany labour costs are, frankly, outrageous.



Fiction:
It's "Socialism" that causes the current downturn.

Fact:
As a matter of fact, pretty much all indicators for the business community are great. It is remarkably easy these days to do business in Germany. There are huge subsidies for anyone who starts a business, or better still, moves into the new, modern industrial parks which are equipped with the absolute latest in infrastructure.
And yet they fail to keep the manufacturers from fleeing to Poland and the Czech Republic, where the labour is cheap.

Plus The Economist (http://www.economist.com/countries/Germany/profile.cfm?folder=Profile%2DEconomic%20Structure) points out the following:

...Extensive social protection and a high tax wedge on labour income reduced the incentive to work, and high non-wage labour costs, rigid employment protection and persistently weak domestic demand depressed the demand for labour... In addition, the system of wage negotiations has led to compressed wage scales, particularly at the lower end, depressing the demand for low-skilled workers.


So why doesn't the economy boom? Because the people are too pessimistic. Consumer Confidence is very low and has been like that for years. People make money, but they save it because they think times are bad...and that makes it so.
There is literally no way to change people's minds on this bar some excellent economic results and finally some job security.
Well, duh! There's no way to change people's minds while the reality out the window doesn't make them feel secure enough. Consumer confidence is not a psychological thing, it is a factor of the state of the economy.


Fiction:
Taxes are too high in Germany.

Fact:
Nope.

Germany
http://www.worldwide-tax.com/germany/germany_tax.asp
Tax %++++++++Tax Base (EUR)
0++++++++++++Up to 7,664
15%++++++++++7,665-52,152
42%++++++++++52,153 and over
And Corporations pay a flat tax of 25%.

Not so fast (http://www.economist.com/countries/Germany/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-FactSheet)

The federal corporation tax rate is 25%, with local taxes pushing the total tax burden on companies up to 38%.
The Similized world
03-12-2005, 20:39
There's certainly a difference between European economies, but one characteristic that's dragging them down is their extensive social safety net. It worked when Germany first introduced it over a hundred years ago because of a growing population and subsequent investments, but now with a giant age gap, it can't work. Taxes will march higher as deficits do, and even then, the increased tax rates may not be enough to cover them. The best solution would be to lessen this safety net, or better yet, eliminate it.
Not true in general. In fact, the opposite is the case. In the more socialist-inclined EU nations, eliminating the welfare systems would deliver a staggering blow to the economy, because people would stop spending money.
And, the economy of the EU nations are - to a much, much larger extent than the American - based on a highly educated population. Removing or just significantly degrading the welfare systems would completely undermine that. Been there, done that. It was a catastrophy.
Other than that, the only other way is to lessen immigration limits, but many Europeans would find that solution utterly unacceptable.
You aren't european, are you? Or is it just because you're incredibly xenophobic & nothing short of a full stop on immigration could ever satisfy you?
Whatever, the last several years, the lot of the EU nations have closed their borders significantly, and it gets more extreme every single year. It's gotten to the point that parties who doesn't make a point of restricting immigration further, can't get elected at all in many of our countries.
Quagmus
03-12-2005, 20:51
..... Removing or just significantly degrading the welfare systems would completely undermine that. Been there, done that. It was a catastrophy.
.....
Thatcher and Reagan. A catastrophy indeed.
Europa Maxima
04-12-2005, 01:42
In a way, unified Germany might bee seen as a model of expanded europe. With the western part paying for the development of the eastern, I mean. I believe this source of problems is developing into a source of oppurtunities though.

Btw, what are your thoughts on the lisbon strategy? eu becoming the most competitive community in the world 2010?
In the start it will be a rough ride, but eventually the EU economy will smoothen out and become powerful. Yet being the most competitive by 2010? I doubt it. At least, not without considerable more spending on technological research.
Europa Maxima
04-12-2005, 01:42
Thatcher and Reagan. A catastrophy indeed.
Yet without Thatcher, would the UK not still be a manufacturing economy as opposed to being a service one, the main reason its still so powerful?
Vetalia
04-12-2005, 01:45
Thatcher and Reagan. A catastrophy indeed.

The US economy roared under Reagan; inflation was tamed, the stock market rallied, and unemployment plunged while payrolls soared. He had the longest expansion in US history until the 1990's, which were a continuation of many of his policies combined with fiscal discipline under the Clinton administration.
Quagmus
04-12-2005, 02:05
Yet without Thatcher, would the UK not still be a manufacturing economy as opposed to being a service one, the main reason its still so powerful?
Couldn't say. Was that entirely her doing?
Ravenshrike
04-12-2005, 02:07
Fact: Without large amounts of continued immigration/birthrate, Europe is fucked in the long run, even by it's own forecasts. By 2030-2050, France will be majority muslim.

Fact: America has the same problem with Medicare, SocSec, and that new perscription drug plan which will make the rest of our spending look like chump change pretty fucking soon.
Europa Maxima
04-12-2005, 02:10
Fact: Without large amounts of continued immigration/birthrate, Europe is fucked in the long run, even by it's own forecasts. By 2030-2050, France will be majority muslim.

Fact: America has the same problem with Medicare, SocSec, and that new perscription drug plan which will make the rest of our spending look like chump change pretty fucking soon.
Europe has a low birth rate, not a negative one. Only Russia has a negative birth rate. Any such predictions, whilst alarming, are exaggerated. Hopefully we will fix our birth rate problem soon.
Quagmus
04-12-2005, 02:13
The US economy roared under Reagan; inflation was tamed, the stock market rallied, and unemployment plunged while payrolls soared. He had the longest expansion in US history until the 1990's, which were a continuation of many of his policies combined with fiscal discipline under the Clinton administration.
An epic description. Was the expansion not somewhat hollow though? The foundations seem a bit shaky of late.
Quagmus
04-12-2005, 02:14
Fact: Without large amounts of continued immigration/birthrate, Europe is fucked in the long run, even by it's own forecasts. By 2030-2050, France will be majority muslim.


That leaves Europe fucked how?
Vetalia
04-12-2005, 02:19
An epic description. Was the expansion not somewhat hollow though? The foundations seem a bit shaky of late.

It's nothing compared to what it was before the 1980's. Even at the highest level of the 2001 recession, unemployment hit no higher than 6.3%, which was the lowest unemployment peak since BLS data was collected in the late 1940's. Productivity soared to record levels, and job growth in the service sector was outstanding.

There were people hurt by this; manufacturing lost many jobs (but only in the low-skill, high cost sectors) and real wages were stagnant while salaries climbed. There were also problems with a widening income gap, but overall things improved considerably.
Quagmus
04-12-2005, 02:21
It's nothing compared to what it was before the 1980's. Even at the highest level of the 2001 recession, unemployment hit no higher than 6.3%, which was the lowest unemployment peak since BLS data was collected in the late 1940's. Productivity soared to record levels, and job growth in the service sector was outstanding.

There were people hurt by this; manufacturing lost many jobs (but only in the low-skill, high cost sectors) and real wages were stagnant while salaries climbed. There were also problems with a widening income gap, but overall things improved considerably.
OK, I'll take your word for it. Withdrawn.
Neu Leonstein
04-12-2005, 02:24
Let me start by noting that the Economist, as the Wall Street Journal, has never been a great fan of anything that's not full-on free-market. They seldomly say something nice about Germany.

Besides, the argument that is usually made is not that Germany has become completely incompetitive, but that it is becoming less and less competitive.
Indeed, yet exports have been booming in the past few years. Domestic demand is ridiculously low, it was the exports that kept the country afloat, with new records year after year.

There is a clear and steady decline in the per capita GDP growth, to the point of there being a negative growth in 2003.
I'm not going to deny that things sucked the past few years. But in 2004, it was positive again (although not exactly great). But as I said, you can't blame the health of big business for it, because that is going great.
The past two years have seen a few great changes in legislation that have not yet shown real effect. Looking at figures from 2003 is of relatively little value then.

Same with the budget balance- it's gone from positive into negative- that considering that Germany does not fund any ventures as costly as the Iraq war and only has a minor share in major peacekeeping missions.
Blame it on the Social Security Blowout - they have initiated reforms, but until the economy picks up, they have their difficulties with simply cutting payments while 10% of people don't have a job.
On this page (http://www.dbresearch.de/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwkey=u1255320) you see what the German government spends all the money on, and here you see some comments (http://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/cln_01/nn_12742/EN/Federal__Budget/1000007.html).
And if you really care, here is the current 86-page report of the Federal Government on how things are going. (pdf-file (http://www.bundesregierung.de/Anlage637835/Economic_Report_2005.pdf)) Lots of graphs and diagrams.

Well, duh! There's no way to change people's minds while the reality out the window doesn't make them feel secure enough. Consumer confidence is not a psychological thing, it is a factor of the state of the economy.
Meh, I've done enough economics to know that this is an argument that we won't be having today. Suffice to say that right now it is low consumer confidence that keeps the economy down and vice versa. A vicious circle.

The federal corporation tax rate is 25%, with local taxes pushing the total tax burden on companies up to 38%.
Not in the various new zones that they started, and with heaps of cuts for anyone who locates into them.

Fact of the matter is that business did great, and the economy boomed while these various interferences were intact earlier.
The Reunification, as well as some effects of Globalisation hurt the economy, and the collapse of the Eastern economy seriously cut into consumer confidence - and that was the final straw. While some of the problems were already around before, they were nowhere near as pronounced as they have been now.
And time and time again, when the various research institutes do their studies, businesses don't say "There is too much red tape, and we pay too much tax!", they say "We'll wait until Domestic Demand picks up again. If we expand, we won't be able to sell it all anyways.".
Vetalia
04-12-2005, 02:25
OK, I'll take your word for it. Withdrawn.

If you were really interested, I could show you the data. But unless you're really in to pages of statistics and reports (like me :eek:), it would be mind bogglingly dull.
Quagmus
04-12-2005, 02:31
If you were really interested, I could show you the data. But unless you're really in to pages of statistics and reports (like me :eek:), it would be mind bogglingly dull.
I am really interested, and into statistics an reports. Let me get back to you on that. This Evil forum is taking enough of my precious study time as it is. Get thee behind me Satan! (but thanx)