NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8371

Expert says bird flu has killed 300 people in China

A respected Japanese scientist, who works with the World Health Organization, says 300 people have died of H5N1 bird flu in China, including seven cases caused by human-to-human transmission.

He says he was given the information in confidence by Chinese colleagues who have been threatened with arrest if they disclosed the extent of the problem.

The allegations, which he revealed at a meeting in Germany, contrast sharply with China’s official position. It reports three confirmed cases of H5N1 in people: a boy in Hunan province who recovered, and two women who died in Anhui province, the latest of which was announced on Thursday. There may be another probable case in Hunan.

But Masato Tashiro, head of virology at Tokyo’s National Institute of Infectious Disease – a WHO-collaborating centre for bird flu – told the meeting of virologists in Marburg, Germany, on 19 November that “we have been systematically deceived”. His comments were reported in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

He told the stunned meeting, called to mark the retirement of a senior German virologist, that there have been “several dozen” outbreaks in people, 300 confirmed deaths and 3000 people placed in isolation with suspected cases.

Doesn't suprise me at all. Remember how SARS spread all around Asia and China was mysteriously unaffected?

They should really get their act together and stop playing games. That threat is serious. Then again, that's what usually happens in a dictatorship, is it not?

watch out for the crazy BIRD FLU, or media death sickness TWO now with a sickness spread by tasty fowl.

IT may kill 0.0001% of the population and more people may be killed by killer bees or stomach acid in the world but watch out, we are doomed...

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b383/DrkHelmet/makesign1.jpg

Yeah, well, I don't give much about the whole media hype. Threats here, threats there, we're all gonna die, blabla.

Then again, I do recall this little thing called the Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed more people than the Great War.

watch out for the crazy BIRD FLU, or media death sickness TWO now with a sickness spread by tasty fowl.

IT may kill 0.0001% of the population and more people may be killed by killer bees or stomach acid in the world but watch out, we are doomed...

you're so batshit insane! Can we keep him as a jester? Please, mods who will eventually DEAT your trollish ass?

Then again, I do recall this little thing called the Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed more people than the Great War.
That's one way of saying it. I think it's more effective to say that the number of deaths was about 50 million. Some people react to the numbers better than the comparative. So yeah. Either way...we're ripe for a pandemic (the last one being in the 70s, no?)...and it could be extreme.

Great, this means that my cutting out my weekly deep kiss with a random wild bird isn't going to be enough to protect me...I still have a life to live, dammit!

you're so batshit insane! Can we keep him as a jester? Please, mods who will eventually DEAT your trollish ass?


wtf? how is what I said insane? THis is a media BS. Your chances of getting birdflu are less than getting stuck by a fowl while in a airplane...

You will NOT get birdflu.

watch out for the crazy BIRD FLU, or media death sickness TWO now with a sickness spread by tasty fowl.

IT may kill 0.0001% of the population and more people may be killed by killer bees or stomach acid in the world but watch out, we are doomed...

You know, some people seem to really underestimate the possible consequences of a plague. I'm not saying that this bird flu is necessarily going to be the next big plague and kill millions of people, but the fact is that a virus could very well do that. Just think of how many people get the 'common cold' every year. Now imagine if even 50% of all those people died. That would be around 30 million people dead in a year, in the U.S. alone. That's like the entire population of Canada.

Thankfully, really deadly diseases don't tend to proliferate like rhinoviruses do.

However, viruses do have the potential to be very, very deadly, especially with today's rapid transport and jam-packed cities.

Now, I'm not saying that people should start panicking about this or anything, but they should as least keep an eye on the situation. It would be better to overestimate a possible plague virus than underestimate it.

wtf? how is what I said insane? THis is a media BS. Your chances of getting birdflu are less than getting stuck by a fowl while in a airplane...

You will NOT get birdflu.

I don't think I will. Doesn't mean you're not crazy for dismissing the threat so lightly

wtf? how is what I said insane? THis is a media BS. Your chances of getting birdflu are less than getting stuck by a fowl while in a airplane...

You will NOT get birdflu.
No, you will not get birdflu if the proper precautions are taken on a global scale...including the millions of birds that have been culled, and monitoring of all cases.

There is a difference between blindly saying, "it's all BS" and actually dealing with a situation proactively.

That's one way of saying it. I think it's more effective to say that the number of deaths was about 50 million. Some people react to the numbers better than the comparative. So yeah. Either way...we're ripe for a pandemic (the last one being in the 70s, no?)...and it could be extreme.
THX, and yes, true.

All I'm trying to stress here is that the world as a whole shouldn't take any chances on this one, especially if you look at how crowded most countries have become in the last 80 years.

And yes, the next pandemic is way overdue. Just like the next Big One in SF...

Hey, look on the bright side! If you get it, there is a 50% chance you will live! :)

Hey, look on the bright side! If you get it, there is a 50% chance you will live! :)
That's only true for certain segments of the population. That percentage changes depending on your age and the state of your regular health.

And that's not a great percentage:)

Hey, look on the bright side! If you get it, there is a 50% chance you will live! :)
Knowing just my luck (and the state of my lungs) I will definitely belong to the other 50%...

No, you will not get birdflu if the proper precautions are taken on a global scale...including the millions of birds that have been culled, and monitoring of all cases.

There is a difference between blindly saying, "it's all BS" and actually dealing with a situation proactively.

I think that China's claim that they have a program to vaccinate 16 billion poultry in the next month or so is a logistical impossibility.

That said, the problem raised by the article is not so much the flu, but the dishonesty of the Chinese government in reporting these outbreaks accurately - up until now, there were no reported cases of human to human transmission anywhere in the world - and now we have several in one country. Knowing this sort of information on time is extremely important.

Once you pass a few thousand infected people in a metropolitan area, you're not stopping the outbreak in humans.

I don't think I will. Doesn't mean you're not crazy for dismissing the threat so lightly


ummm its not a threat, its some garbage you have seen on CNN. SARS and birdflu, watch out...

News flash, if we do have a flu pandemic its going to be drug resistant flu. OR maybe something like legionnaire virus that will kill the sick and old. Its not going to be the blackplague, people are not going to drop in the streets and monks are not going to be running around "yelling bring out the dead" A pandemic will kill the poor, the old and the sick. It will strain society but not bring it down.

Not bloody bird flu, I mean seriously are you worried about this media created BS plague?

I think that China's claim that they have a program to vaccinate 16 billion poultry in the next month or so is a logistical impossibility.

That said, the problem raised by the article is not so much the flu, but the dishonesty of the Chinese government in reporting these outbreaks accurately - up until now, there were no reported cases of human to human transmission anywhere in the world - and now we have several in one country. Knowing this sort of information on time is extremely important.

Once you pass a few thousand infected people in a metropolitan area, you're not stopping the outbreak in humans.
Agreed. I think it became clear when SARS broke out that the 'all clear' signal from China was bullshit. And that would be fine, if it did not directly impact the rest of us. Live in la-la-land if you'd like, China...but seal your borders and make sure only you get infected.

Haha, we're all screwed. :)

Seriously though, these things are always a tempest in a teapot. And even if it becomes the worst pandemic in history, well, it's not all bad. At least we'll get affordable housing out of it.

What I find odd, is that recently there was a report that some 25-30 million homes in the US that could possibly contain asbestos (and I would assume given the ubiqutous nature of W.R. Grace chemicals, Canada too). That to me, at least, seems a far more pressing concern than the fact that we are "due" for a global pandemic. Better 'flu than mesothelioma.

ummm its not a threat, its some garbage you have seen on CNN. SARS and birdflu, watch out...

News flash, if we do have a flu pandemic its going to be drug resistant flu. OR maybe something like legionnaire virus that will kill the sick and old. Its not going to be the blackplague, people are not going to drop in the streets and monks are not going to be running around "yelling bring out the dead" A pandemic will kill the poor, the old and the sick. It will strain society but not bring it down.

Not bloody bird flu, I mean seriously are you worried about this media created BS plague?

of course it's a threat.

ummm its not a threat, its some garbage you have seen on CNN. SARS and birdflu, watch out... SARS was a huge problem. Canada was hit hard...that was no 'garbage you've seen on CNN'. Health workers were dropping like flies. It is precisely because that threat was taken seriously that they were able to CONTAIN it.

I won't bother with the rest...you're being silly.

Haha, we're all screwed. :)

Seriously though, these things are always a tempest in a teapot. And even if it becomes the worst pandemic in history, well, it's not all bad. At least we'll get affordable housing out of it.

What I find odd, is that recently there was a report that some 25-30 million homes in the US that could possibly contain asbestos (and I would assume given the ubiqutous nature of W.R. Grace chemicals, Canada too). That to me, at least, seems a far more pressing concern than the fact that we are "due" for a global pandemic. Better 'flu than mesothelioma.

People are idoits. They see some sexy media spalsh on tv and think its going to affect them. No its not morons. Stuff like the quote above is. Drug resistant viruses are. But since you dont see it on cnn.
derrr

Haha, we're all screwed. :)

Seriously though, these things are always a tempest in a teapot. And even if it becomes the worst pandemic in history, well, it's not all bad. At least we'll get affordable housing out of it.

What I find odd, is that recently there was a report that some 25-30 million homes in the US that could possibly contain asbestos (and I would assume given the ubiqutous nature of W.R. Grace chemicals, Canada too). That to me, at least, seems a far more pressing concern than the fact that we are "due" for a global pandemic. Better 'flu than mesothelioma.

Or consider that we could save a lot of people by getting that radon out of your home...

Radon Risk for Lung Cancer Back in the Spotlight
Second Leading Cause of Lung Cancer in US
Article date: 2005/02/09

A recent study in BMJ (Vol. 330, No. 7485: 223-228) serves as a potent reminder that smoking isn't the only factor doctors and patients should consider when discussing lung cancer risk. European researchers report that exposure to radon gas in the home accounts for about 9% of lung cancer deaths and about 2% of overall cancer deaths in Europe.

SARS was a huge problem. Canada was hit hard...that was no 'garbage you've seen on CNN'. Health workers were dropping like flies. It is precisely because that threat was taken seriously that they were able to CONTAIN it.

I won't bother with the rest...you're being silly.

Droping like flies? what? WE had like what three nurses die?

More health workers are affected by drug resisted viruses or slipping on bloody wet floors in the hospitals. Get a grip. :rolleyes:

:headbang:

People are idoits. They see some sexy media spalsh on tv and think its going to affect them. No its not morons. Stuff like the quote above is. Drug resistant viruses are. But since you dont see it on cnn.
derrr
:D
Yeah, ok then.

People are idoits. They see some sexy media spalsh on tv and think its going to affect them. No its not morons. Stuff like the quote above is. Drug resistant viruses are. But since you dont see it on cnn.
derrr

who are you to call anyone stupid?

You can't queue health threats up and hope the ones you don't like will wait their turn

Assuming it even is real, what ya gonna do? Can't develop a vaccine until we know the structure of the virus. Quarrentine would be inefficient, and wholesale wildfowl slaughter would be just as inefficient. So don't worry bout what you can't change until you can. Start a new thread in 6 months, when we can actually say something useful about it.

Droping like flies? what? WE had like what three nurses die?

More health workers are affected by drug resisted viruses or slipping on bloody wet floors in the hospitals. Get a grip. :rolleyes:

:headbang:
There were just over 300 people in Toronto that were infected with SARS, with 38 deaths. The reason it was so damn problematic is it was airborne. Like the flu. People were quarantined, and extreme measures were used to stop it from spreading. Had people, like yourself, simply hid their heads in the sand, it could not have been contained, and would have been much worse.

The point is...better to overreact to something like this, then underreact.

who are you to call anyone stupid?

You can't queue health threats up and hope the ones you don't like will wait their turn


Sure you can lol.

Since the bigger threat can be a million other things. Such as tramua (walking down the street and getting hit by a car)

We should treat the more serious threats and not run around like chicken with its head cut off. But chicken culls are still a good idea, just incase.

The people who take "bird flu" really seriously are the same people who worry about earthquakes or some random event striking you.

I mean seriously we have much more pressing issues to deal with than a media created "plague" like bird flu. :headbang:

We should treat the more serious threats and not run around like chicken with its head cut off. But chicken culls are still a good idea, just incase.


right. so you are now admitting that something needs to be done about the bird flu threat?

There were just over 300 people in Toronto that were infected with SARS, with 38 deaths. The reason it was so damn problematic is it was airborne. Like the flu. People were quarantined, and extreme measures were used to stop it from spreading. Had people, like yourself, simply hid their heads in the sand, it could not have been contained, and would have been much worse.

The point is...better to overreact to something like this, then underreact.

Who many people die from legionnaire virus a year? How many people die of food poisoning.

The worst damage from sars came from the perception from people like you, that your gonna get sars in TO, stay away, stay away....

right. so you are now admitting that something needs to be done about the bird flu threat?

wow did I ever say we shouldnt do anything? No I stated people who worry about it are knuckleheads. Worry about AIDS or cancer...

People are idoits. They see some sexy media spalsh on tv and think its going to affect them. No its not morons. Stuff like the quote above is. Drug resistant viruses are. But since you dont see it on cnn.
derrr

You know, more than just CNN is talking about the potential problems of this bird flu. Hell, I've never even seen CNN, I first learned about it from National Geographic.

wow did I ever say we shouldnt do anything? No I stated people who worry about it are knuckleheads. Worry about AIDS or cancer...
And when did anyone say they weren't worried about those things. You are making some pretty wild assumptions. Why don't you not. Hmmm?

You know, more than just CNN is talking about the potential problems of this bird flu. Hell, I've never even seen CNN, I first learned about it from National Geographic.
Apparently to this person, CNN is the only channel available:rolleyes:

wow did I ever say we shouldnt do anything? No I stated people who worry about it are knuckleheads. Worry about AIDS or cancer...

If you're not worried about something, you don't take or plan counter measures.

Man, you are so fucking stupid. And grammar is your friend. Use it well.

If you're not worried about something, you don't take or plan counter measures.

Man, you are so ********. And grammar is your friend. Use it well.
Don't waste your time insulting this poster. Take a look at other recent posts...it's not worth it. Methinks baiting is at play.

Don't waste your time insulting this poster. Take a look at other recent posts...it's not worth it. Methinks baiting is at play.

You're probably right.

If you're not worried about something, you don't take or plan counter measures.

Man, you are so fucking stupid. And grammar is your friend. Use it well.
:rolleyes:

I am not worried about it at all. Nor should you be. It is media generated BS, on cnn or not...

And crying about grammer usally means your arguement is BS.

Why are YOU, the guy behind the keyboard worried about something that will NOT affect you? Because you rely on the media to make your decisions/judgements for you. Your not going to get bird flu, nor is anyone you know going to get it.

YA im stupid...

There, HMW, he's admitted it at last. Let's let it drop.

:rolleyes:

I am not worried about it at all. Nor should you be. It is media generated BS, on cnn or not...

And crying about grammer usally means your arguement is BS.

Why are YOU, the guy behind the keyboard worried about something that will NOT affect you? Because you rely on the media to make your decisions/judgements for you. Your not going to get bird flu, nor is anyone you know going to get it.

YA im stupid...

How do you know it won't affect me? (Directly or indirectly)

And I'm picking on your grammar because it's annoying to try and decipher your meaning. Good grammar keeps things from being confusing.

There, HMW, he's admitted it at last. Let's let it drop.

As of...now:)

As of...now:)


:rolleyes: ITs not baiting when you have the better arguement buddy

Why are YOU, the guy behind the keyboard worried about something that will NOT affect you? Because you rely on the media to make your decisions/judgements for you. Your not going to get bird flu, nor is anyone you know going to get it.

If by 'media' you mean 'what biologists are thinking on the matter', then yeah, it's probably a good idea to listen to what they're saying. And if they're saying that bird flu could be troublesome, it's probably a good idea to keep an eye on it.

Really though, even your ordinary, everyday flu kills 20 000 to 40 000 people per year in the U.S., and infects a helluva lot more.

(statistics taken from WrongDiagnosis.com (http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/stats.htm))

Tis better to be safe than sorry. As in, I would rather that governments take reactionary, overkill precautions against an illness that is unlikely to become a serious problem, than die from an illness that could have easily been neutered earlier. The modern world is no more immune from a 'plague' than any other. Arrogance, of course, is a bigger killer than bird flu will ever be.

:rolleyes: ITs not baiting when you have the better arguement buddy

But what you're doing is trolling, and what everyone else needs to do, including you, is calm down and stay civil.

Tis better to be safe than sorry. As in, I would rather that governments take reactionary, overkill precautions against an illness that is unlikely to become a serious problem, than die from an illness that could have easily been neutered earlier. The modern world is no more immune from a 'plague' than any other. Arrogance, of course, is a bigger killer than bird flu will ever be.

It's more susceptible now than ever. More travel, faster travel, people more densely packed, generally lower ability to contain people.

It's more susceptible now than ever. More travel, faster travel, people more densely packed, generally lower ability to contain people.

Seriously! I've been saying for years that we're setting ourselves up for things to go badly if the 'right' virus came along. Y'know, something with a decent gestation period before symptoms show and highly virulent would do the trick. You could infect hundreds before even knowing you were sick.

Seriously! I've been saying for years that we're setting ourselves up for things to go badly if the 'right' virus came along. Y'know, something with a decent gestation period before symptoms show and highly virulent would do the trick. You could infect hundreds before even knowing you were sick.

Yes, that's a pretty scary thought

Yes, that's a pretty scary thought

Hopefully, nothing quite like that will ever happen. However, this flu business is quite possibly a candidate for something similar (don't most flus only cause symptoms after they stop being infectious?) It could just blow over and not be much of anything, but it's a pretty big risk to take if we just ignore it, in case it is something dangerous.