NationStates Jolt Archive

I stated in a previous threat that the universe is infinitely large and vast beyond our comprehension. In my mind that tells me that it is a statistical fact that there is another intelligent race out there.

But enough about what I think. Are there other intelligent beings out there? Or did humanity get really, really lucky?

First I'd like to know if there's any intelligent life in here. :)

I stated in a previous threat that the universe is infinitely large and vast beyond our comprehension. In my mind that tells me that it is a statistical fact that there is another intelligent race out there.
How does it do that? We have insufficient data on which to base a conclusion, or even on which to base a valid statistical probability (a sample of nine planets in a galaxy of hundreds of millions is meaningless).

I stated in a previous threat that the universe is infinitely large and vast beyond our comprehension. In my mind that tells me that it is a statistical fact that there is another intelligent race out there.

But enough about what I think. Are there other intelligent beings out there? Or did humanity get really, really lucky?
I suspect that other life in the universe is far more common than most think. Statistically, it's highly unlikely that we'll ever get to meet them, but wouldn't that cause an enormous shift in most people's attitudes! Wow! :)

[what Arthur C. Clarke said]

Absolutely. I think that somewhere out there, there is probably some kind of life that is possessed of something approximating "intelligence" as we understand it. Do I think they visit Earth in flying saucers, abduct rednecks and draw pictures in corn fields? Unlikely.

How does it do that? We have insufficient data on which to base a conclusion, or even on which to base a valid statistical probability (a sample of nine planets in a galaxy of hundreds of millions is meaningless).

Hundreds of billions actually, if our calculations are correct.

Billions and billions of stars, even more planets. To me that tells me that it would be the greatest longshot in history if there were no other sentient life forms out there (equivalent to say...getting hit by lightning 5 times in one day)

The universe isn't infinite. If you accept the Big Bang theory, which I'm assuming most do, then it can't be - if it started out from a point with a finite radius (the singularity) then no matter how much it expands it will still be finite - it's like trying to count to infinity; it can never be reached.

That being said, given the rate of expansion, the time it's been going on for, the number of stars and planets out there etc., the universe is still bloody big, and therefore I consider it quite likely that there are other life forms (intelligent or otherwise) out there.

Statistics tells us there are no aliens.
Of all the polls ever held, none of the respondants ever said they were alien. So with 95% certainty we can say there's at most 3% aliens. And that's assuming a random sample of all inhabitants of the universe.
Ok, so admittedly it breaks down there; unless we are alone. But still. Statistics don't lie. Statisticians do!

Anyway. the US has a large number of illegal aliens, I'm told. Mostly from Mexico.

The universe isn't infinite. If you accept the Big Bang theory, which I'm assuming most do, then it can't be - if it started out from a point with a finite radius (the singularity) then no matter how much it expands it will still be finite - it's like trying to count to infinity; it can never be reached.

You're right, nothing is truly infinite.

Our galaxy has billions of stars, and our universe has billions of galaxies. There are even theories of parallel universes. But that doesn't make it infinite...just really, really fucking big.

You're right, nothing is truly infinite.

Our galaxy has billions of stars, and our universe has billions of galaxies. There are even theories of parallel universes. But that doesn't make it infinite...just really, really fucking big.

Hehe, precisely. Which is why, depite my annoying pedantics and general nit pickery, I still reckon there's someone besides us :D

Are there other intelligent beings out there?

Would you call things like God, Allah, JHWH and so on aliens - not being evolved on earth and all ?

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a tad unlikely.

Now, keep in mind, these figures represent the Milky Way alone.

Imagine the number if the entire universe was taken into consideration.
The number would be astronomically huge, and to me, a certainty.

Considering the scope of the universe and the amount of time it's existed, I am willing to bet that aliens probably exist.

Considering the scope of the universe and the amount of time it's existed, I am willing to bet that aliens probably exist.


Read my post above.

I can prove it, in an extremely poor, amatuerish way.

You're right, nothing is truly infinite.

You appear to be claiming that infinity is not truly infinite, and is thus finite. Are you sure you want to stick with this answer?

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a tad unlikely.

Now, keep in mind, these figures represent the Milky Way alone.

Imagine the number if the entire universe was taken into consideration.
The number would be astronomically huge, and to me, a certainty.

I bestow upon thee, a cookie.

*Hands Backwoodssquatch a Bolol Nuclear Cookie Mk. 2*

For your excellent analysis.

Do I think they visit Earth in flying saucers, abduct rednecks and draw pictures in corn fields? Unlikely.

Surely any species smart enough to build intergalactic or even interstellar craft would do what all decent Earth nerds do: order takeaway pizza and download internet porn.

You appear to be claiming that infinity is not truly infinite, and is thus finite. Are you sure you want to stick with this answer?

Okay, okay...I was talking about something physical. Nothing physical (that I can think of) is infinite.

Numbers...numbers are infinite. They just keep going and going...like a coke'd out Energizer Bunny...

But they are not physical, they are simply a law of nature.

I stated in a previous threat
You threatening us now? ;)

...that the universe is infinitely large and vast beyond our comprehension. In my mind that tells me that it is a statistical fact that there is another intelligent race out there.

But enough about what I think. Are there other intelligent beings out there? Or did humanity get really, really lucky?
If the set of mutations that allowed for our 'intelligence' happened only once, and there is no reason to assume it couldn't, then somebody has to be the 'special one' to get it. Might as well be us.

Statistics doesn't make facts, although it can be facts.

You threatening us now? ;)

Sorry..."thread"...

I bestow upon thee, a cookie.

*Hands Backwoodssquatch a Bolol Nuclear Cookie Mk. 2*

For your excellent analysis.
What? BackwoodsSquatches simply picked a number out of the air and used it repeatedly. If he'd picked a bigger number, we'd have trillions of aliens; if he'd picked a smaller number, we'd have none. How is this an 'excellent analysis'? It's damn near synonymous with the 'we can't explain everything, so God did it' argument.

I'm sorry, I appear to be going through a male equivalent of a period. That came out angrier than I meant it.

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

<snippity McSnippits>

Time to rethink your math...

0.1% of 250,000,000,000 is 250,000,000. You are correct.
0.1% of 250,000,000 is 250,000. You are correct.
0.001% of 250,000 is not 25,000. It is 2.5.
0.001% of 2.5 is 0.000025. If you lost track, this is the number of civilizations that can traverse interstellar space effectively.
0.001% of 0.000025 is 0.00000000025. This is the chance (according to his numbers) that an alien civilization has visited Earth.

So, there is a 1 in 4 billion chance of an interstellar race from the Milky Way having visited earth.

Also, there is a 1 in 40,000 chance that a race such as that even exists in the Milky Way, according to those averages at least.

You lose at mathematics.

What? BackwoodsSquatches simply picked a number out of the air and used it repeatedly. If he'd picked a bigger number, we'd have trillions of aliens; if he'd picked a smaller number, we'd have none. How is this an 'excellent analysis'? It's damn near synonymous with the 'we can't explain everything, so God did it' argument.

I'm sorry, I appear to be going through a male equivalent of a period. That came out angrier than I meant it.

Longton needs a hug. *hugz*


You lose at mathematics.

So do I, yeesh...

This is why psysicist is not in my career plans...

Longton needs a hug. *hugz*
*feels up*

I feel dirty...