NationStates Jolt Archive

I watched a documentary about Socialism ("Heaven on Earth - A Think Tank Special", pretty right-wing but factual nonetheless) yesterday, and they concentrated heavily on China.
And since China has been all the rage the past few days on NS General, I thought I'd explain what I learned about Communism in China - and whether China is and will stay Communist still.

When Mao was finally victorious in 1949, and Chiang Kai-Chek (who was a rather fascist dictator) fled to start the country of Taiwan, the course that China would take was not fully formulated just yet.
One thing was clear though: Mao would develop his own version of Socialism, one distinct from Soviet Socialism. The army was to play a large part in it. Indeed, the Chinese revolution was not a people's revolution as such, it was more the victory of the Communist Army over the Nationalist one. These People's Armies were actually fully autonomous units, which built their own guns and ammunition, had their own factories - and the soldiers were also tradespeople at the same time.

Mao was a revolutionary and an intellectual. He believed that the core of the Socialist movement was its revolutionary nature, and without revolution, there would be stagnation - without the zeal, the "cause" being constantly reinforced, there would be corruption, selfishness and just generally a bad vibe. So from there came his theory of "continuous revolution".

A few years into his reign, Mao decided that things were going well (and they kinda were, as usual with Socialist countries shortly after revolution) and that the time for Socialism in China was pretty much over. He reckoned that productive capacity was so high that with a bit of extra push, China could finally eliminate scarcity and so reach Communism (the stateless, moneyless, oppression-free utopia). And that was how the "Great Leap Forward" was born.

In that time, Mao forecasted that China would produce more steel than Britain in a few years and all kinds of other things (which led to people having to give everything metal to the government etc). And the reforms were implemented quickly and often brutally. A new man had to be created for communism so the children were removed from the parents, the family unit was broken up. People would work many long hours and then go to communal kitchens were they would eat together with everyone else. They would only go home to sleep, and even that was collectivised in some places.
At the same time Mao (who was not a peasant) had the great idea that to increase food harvests, one simply had to plant the plants closer to one another and therefore increase production. So the peasant were forced to do that - with the effects of harvests failing and massive starvation.

So that didn't quite happen as Mao envisioned, and after a few years of terrible turmoil and mass starvation, more political oppression and so on, it was finally given up. But when he was older, another famous policy of his began.

Some people claim that the Cultural Revolution wasn't Mao's idea, but his wife's (a horrible, horrible witch/actress who hated everything establishment and conservative), but even then he obviously agreed with it. Remember those kids that had been taken away from their families? They came back now: as the brainwashed "Red Guards". The Cultural Revolution basically meant the destruction of the old days and everything that came with it - old values, traditions, culture, religion and all the rest of it. And the Red Guards were perfect for it. Angry teenagers whose rebellious tendencies were turned into an utter hatred for the past and a total love for Mao and the Communist Party.

And then Mao finally died. He had taken out all of his rivals as well as many of his friends, but the few that remained now began to struggle for power. The one that survived in the end was Deng Xiaoping.

Deng had a saying that used to make Mao almost choke with anger: "It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white - as long as it catches mice." He was a pragmatist, who would do whatever worked. After Mao's death, a few of the supposedly collectivised farmers in the countryside had begun to split apart their estates and were working for a little profit. When the local governour reported this to Deng, he decided to look whether it worked - and it did. Shortly after, all farms, and many small industries in China were being decollectivised. People would start to make contact with overseas clients and produce things for them - and that worked too. And so Deng Xiaoping decided to make that government policy.

This came at a similar time to Gorbachev's reforms in the USSR, and the push for political freedom there. And indeed, the new economic freedom also resulted in Chinese people ask for the rule of the one-party state to end. But Deng was not at all impressed. He crushed the protests brutally at Tiananmen Square, and that was that. He secured the rule of the Communist Party and was free to proceed with his reforms, with the goal of creating a "Socialist Market Economy" (not to be confused with the German "Social Market Economy") and the "Four Modernisations".

The four modernisations are still the priorities of the Chinese government today. In order to remain powerful and independent, the areas of agriculture, industry, science and technology, and the military would be modernised and improved.

So does that mean that the Communist Party is no longer Communist? I don't really think so - I think the long term goal of the communist utopia is still alive. But rather than force it as Mao did, Deng and his successors are quite happy to wait for it, and in the meantime create a system that will make the journey there as pleasant and workable as possible.

So what do you think about the Chinese Government today? What do you think will be its future?
And how do you think these past experiences will shape China's foreign policy over the next fifty or hundred years?

I think we should destroy them before they get to powerful.

I think we should destroy them before they get to powerful.
And why is that?

The goverment overexagerated Communism in the 50's to get patriat Americans. (Eg. McCartyism). The general American theorem of "Communist is evil, all who doesn't oppose communism is evil" is simply not true. It led to many mistakes. Seriously, Communist China is an economically progressive nation, (70% of your possetions are probably made in China). They aren't harming anyone, why would anyone want to destroy. It would creat a serious rise in prices of common items.

Peace on Earth

And why is that?

I disagree that we should "destroy them", but I do think that there is a moderate chance that there will be serious conflict between china and the west before too many years go by.

It's difficult for me to pin down a war where China was pushing for expansion in the past, but most of China's history consists of it's native groups violently vying for control of the Chinese homeland. Now that their power has been consolidated and stabilized, and their economy is growing into a beast that needs to be fed as badly as the US economy...the situation is ripe for conflict.

I may be in the minority when I say that an "economic war" with China could be almost as damaging as a " conventional shooting war". How hard would it be for them to wreak some longterm havoc with the US economy??? Not hard at all. To me, that is the real chinese threat.

So what do you think about the Chinese Government today? What do you think will be its future?

And how do you think these past experiences will shape China's foreign policy over the next fifty or hundred years?
China is as China always has been: insular, ethnocentric, and totalitarian. Chances are this will not change in the forseeable future. China has, however, largely adopted the capitalist economic model because they are realists and know that it works because it harnesses basic human motivations. Perhaps they will aslo adopt a modified form of democracy, although I doubt it, but they will most likely always be insualr and ethnocentric.

China is as China always has been: insular, ethnocentric, and totalitarian. Chances are this will not change in the forseeable future. China has, however, largely adopted the capitalist economic model because they are realists and know that it works because it harnesses basic human motivations. Perhaps they will aslo adopt a modified form of democracy, although I doubt it, but they will most likely always be insualr and ethnocentric.

Funny. Most of the Chinese people I know welcome foreign expertise in building up their country. As far as Asian countries go, mainland China is in many ways currently less ethnocentric than its neighbours.

This whole idea of the 'threat' of China or 'managing China's rise' is absolutely repugnant. Why should the U.S. be as presumptuous as to curtail the growth and development of another country?

As someone who has family there, has visited there a few times, and speaks the language, I feel that China and the West are no more on the verge of conflict than the Japan and the West were in the 1960s through the 1980s. All of the rhetoric about the threat posed by China is purely political and aimed at papering over the fact that our economy has failed to evolve and become more competitive.

It's difficult for me to pin down a war where China was pushing for expansion in the past...
There were some incidents...for example China tried to invade both India and Vietnam in its early Communist times, but with relatively little success. They did however wield great influence with Socialist countries in Africa and Latin America in Mao's later days.

Now that their power has been consolidated and stabilized, and their economy is growing into a beast that needs to be fed as badly as the US economy...the situation is ripe for conflict.
Only for resources, and it is the nature of Capitalism that the one with more money ends up with the goods in such a case.
Other than that, the two are helping each other, and the trade between them is really mutually beneficial.

I may be in the minority when I say that an "economic war" with China could be almost as damaging as a " conventional shooting war". How hard would it be for them to wreak some longterm havoc with the US economy??? Not hard at all. To me, that is the real chinese threat.
What do you mean by "economic war" though? If you're talking about the Chinese outbidding the US on an oil contract or something, well that's fair game.
A true "war" would simply be the Chinese Reserve Bank destroying the US Dollar (which they could do today if they felt like it) - but as a result having to float their currency and their financial system probably collapsing.

It doesn't "catch mice", so I don't think real antagonism is really going to be shown in the near future.

Bump

Keep in mind Chinese communism did alot of good, the ultimate failing of the Party to control Mao was it's one weakness.

To the ones who dismiss that the threat of China is politically motivated,

What about nuclear and missile proliferation from China to terrorist states such as NoKo and Pakistan?

What about nuclear and missile proliferation from China to terrorist states such as NoKo and Pakistan?
Hmmm...wasn't it a straight swap between the DPRK and Pakistan - Korean Missiles vs Pakistani Nuke-Knowledge?

Of course that begs the question where those two got the stuff from in the first place...but I'm sure you can find some info about that (remember to only post the links though, you don't have to quote the whole article).

Well the whole idea of using a proxy to proliferate to another proxy was to evade direct accusations.

You may buy it, but I don't.

Well the whole idea of using a proxy to proliferate to another proxy was to evade direct accusations.

You may buy it, but I don't.
Hey, I believe there is a case to be made for something fishy going on (although I'm not entirely sure what China would gain from it yet), but a Google Search didn't return any meaningful info on China giving nuclear technology to Pakistan (I found one line in one article (http://www.thebulletin.org/article_nn.php?art_ofn=jf02norris)), nor about China giving missiles to the DPRK (the No Dong being a modified Scud).

To the ones who dismiss that the threat of China is politically motivated,

What about nuclear and missile proliferation from China to terrorist states such as NoKo and Pakistan?
Where did you get that idea from?

It's rather surprising as China is the one bringing the pressure to bear on the North to disarm. North Korea listens to China, not the United States.

When Mao was finally victorious in 1949, and Chiang Kai-Chek (who was a rather fascist dictator) fled to start the country of Taiwan, the course that China would take was not fully formulated just yet.
One thing was clear though: Mao would develop his own version of Socialism, one distinct from Soviet Socialism. The army was to play a large part in it. Indeed, the Chinese revolution was not a people's revolution as such, it was more the victory of the Communist Army over the Nationalist one. These People's Armies were actually fully autonomous units, which built their own guns and ammunition, had their own factories - and the soldiers were also tradespeople at the same time. Probably worth noting that all of this equipment was pretty much utter crap. Mao only managed to field huge armies through massive donations and weaponry supplied by the Russians, without whom Mao and the CCCP could never have dreamed of winning.

Mao was a revolutionary and an intellectual. He believed that the core of the Socialist movement was its revolutionary nature, and without revolution, there would be stagnation - without the zeal, the "cause" being constantly reinforced, there would be corruption, selfishness and just generally a bad vibe. So from there came his theory of "continuous revolution". Lets not forget Mao's gargantuan system of brutal control. By enacting "continuous revolution", he could keep any potential challengers emasculated and quell even mild dissent with horrible efficiency. Thus maintaining his iron grip on power, Mao's primary goal.

A few years into his reign, Mao decided that things were going well (and they kinda were, as usual with Socialist countries shortly after revolution) and that the time for Socialism in China was pretty much over. He reckoned that productive capacity was so high that with a bit of extra push, China could finally eliminate scarcity and so reach Communism (the stateless, moneyless, oppression-free utopia). And that was how the "Great Leap Forward" was born. Mao didn't give a rat's ass about China being an "oppression-free utopia". The Great Leap was not done out of some lofty idealistic dream for a purely communist state. His primary goal was obtaining the Nuclear Bomb and a massive re-armament through Soviet donation in order to achieve his insane "Superpower Program". He hoped to achieve this by giving away China's desparately-needed food to the Russians.

So that didn't quite happen as Mao envisioned, and after a few years of terrible turmoil and mass starvation, more political oppression and so on, it was finally given up. Well to be a little more accurate, Mao was forced to give up his program. He didn't really care about the people who suffered. He never forgave those who stopped him, such as President Lin and his revenge was to come in the brutal form of the Cultural Revolution.

So what do you think about the Chinese Government today? What do you think will be its future? And how do you think these past experiences will shape China's foreign policy over the next fifty or hundred years? I hope God they never regress into the horrific nightmare that was Mao's reign. I don't like the current Chinese goverment at all, but that's due to a hatred of fascist totalitarianism. I think the future holds some serious problems, a likely economic collapse, a violent revolution and a new, weaker, perhaps even divided China.

Mao didn't give a rat's ass about China being an "oppression-free utopia". The Great Leap was not done out of some lofty idealistic dream for a purely communist state. His primary goal was obtaining the Nuclear Bomb and a massive re-armament through Soviet donation in order to achieve his insane "Superpower Program". He hoped to achieve this by giving away China's desparately-needed food to the Russians.
I can live with the rest of your points, but I would ask you to prove this one.
This is the very first time I heard this hypothesis, and I have read plenty that was very critical (and rightly so) of Mao's reign - but to claim that he was not a communist ideologue with the goal of implementing communism is rich indeed.
Yes the Nuclear Bomb was important, yes some of the scarce food was exported to the USSR and other countries - but you'll have to do something to support your claim that Mao was not interested in the implementation of Marxist-Leninist theory.

I can live with the rest of your points, but I would ask you to prove this one. This is the very first time I heard this hypothesis, and I have read plenty that was very critical (and rightly so) of Mao's reign - but to claim that he was not a communist ideologue with the goal of implementing communism is rich indeed. Well, firstly, as a fellow Leftist I think you'll have to concede that what Mao was implimenting was hardly communism.

Secondly, yes Mao was interested in perpetuating the CCCP and some of his ideals had similarities to Marxist philosophy, but in reality, most were merely there to allow maximum control to the government and squeeze every penny from the citizens of China to fill the government's coffers. Also, Mao's idea of a "utopia" was hardly one which could be shared with the masses, ever hear of his famous quote?

"Half of China may well have to die in the Leap"

Mao also avidly supported a "Red Asia", which would of course defer to China as it's leader. Mao supported Communism because it was a means by which he could achieve and maintain power over others, it was convienient to him. He was hardly a rabid Marxist fundamentalist, as his period with the Nationalists and his frequent purges attest to

Yes the Nuclear Bomb was important, yes some of the scarce food was exported to the USSR and other countries A LOT of the scarce food was exported, this was also part of Mao's campaign to appear sympathetic to the world, thus gain more trust, money and, most importantly, power. It worked on retards like Jean-Paul Sartre.

So what do you think about the Chinese Government today? What do you think will be its future?
And how do you think these past experiences will shape China's foreign policy over the next fifty or hundred years?

China is not quite a police state. Tianenmen Square. Tibet. Forced abortion. Hundreds of thousands political prisoners. All in the name of communism. In reality, they've managed to replace an emperor and court mandarins with a heirarchy of party nomenclatura and bureaucrats who are about as communist as Bill Gates-to create a workers paradise.
They are predatory capitalists. One example is the American steel industry. A few years ago they dumped steel on the world market and lowered the price so much that they drove out the competition. Now the price of steel is going up.
The future will be coming to grips with their doublethink. They need to pick a path-communism or capitalism. I'm betting on capitalism. The reason isdemographic-the one child per family rule. There will be less workers, wages and the standard of living will rise. I think China will transform into a more capitalist democracy within the next 50-100 years but it will always be a very restrictive society.

Here's a collation of what China said and what they did

http://www.nci.org/i/ib12997.htm

To explain Chinese proliferation, I need to expose many canards that are being taken as facts.

For ex take the canard that Pakistan has indigeneous nuke capability. This is a lie that has been kept alive. Pakis until 98 could not even make a crankshaft. Pl refer to Stephen Cohen's book on Pakistan. Even now they cannot make locomotive engines. They imported train engines from China and they could not even repair them and had to call in Chinese technicians to repair them. Their scientific output is laughable at best. The Phds they have produced since independance is less than 300. Allah is great, but I am sorry, I don't believe in this Paki indigeneous capacity nonsense. They begged and borrowed and stole and managed to get some crude low tonnage nukes and thats it. Nothing else. The bigger ones that Pakistan exploded in Chagai following Indian tests on May 98 (Pokhran II) were directly imported from China.

Following India's tests, we detected big convoys of trucks plying across the Karakoram highway. It was speculated that nukes/nuke parts were being transferred.

This can be confirmed since AQKhan's centrifuges never really gave weapons grade stuff. Libyans tried it for years and failed. Iranians also failed.

And the biggest joke is NoKo capability. They recently got transfer of tech from Chinese for...hold your breath...bicycle technology. Their scientific and technological capacity is even more laughable than Pakis...so u can imagine where the NoKoreans stand with respect to indigeneous missile and nuclear capability.

Lol and the funny part is that the NoDong missiles that NoKo gave to Pakis were already nuclear capable. I wonder how the NoKoreans could mate and test nukes that they did not have at that point. And even more funnier is that Pakis could not help gloating that they had a nuke capable missile ready to be launched on India (before even they did the obligatory "testing" and repainting and rechristening the missile with a muslim invaders name).

Fact is that both the missile and the nuke were Chinese and hence compatible and was already tested by the Chinese and there was no need for the Pakis and the NoKoreans to test it seperately.

And it is not like the US did not know this. They were well aware of all this proliferation. They even have satellite pics of the C-130 (US given) planes of Pakistan flying stuff to NoKo (which made refuellin stops in China, btw).

NERVUN
It's rather surprising as China is the one bringing the pressure to bear on the North to disarm. North Korea listens to China, not the United States.

Oh Lord. And why would not dear leader listen to Chi-comms when it is the Chi-comms that keep him in power.

The Chinese move is to get US to evacuate from S.Korea and concede that the far east (and eventually including Japan) is China's sphere of influence.

Proliferation to a rogue state is actually a good tactic if you view it purely from tactical point of view. you are not held directly responsible, but u hold the cards.

Hey, I believe there is a case to be made for something fishy going on (although I'm not entirely sure what China would gain from it yet)

You see, the Chinese know that India is the long term competitor to them. In terms of inherent potential even Japan do not come close to the kind of competition that we will be to them in the future.

So in this race, it helps to get as much headstart as possible.

India is currently spending an inordinate amount of time, energy and money in responding to the security threat posed by Pakistan. And everytime we look like getting an unassailable upper hand with which we can thoroughly deter Paki adventurism, they get propped up by Chinese proliferation.

As early as 62 (following Chinese invasion of India and India's defeat and subsequent occupation of Indian land by the Chinese), Pakis have been in cahoots with China. They donated Shakhsgam valley of Kashmir to China which enabled the Chinese to build the Karakoram highway linking China and Pakistan.

Emboldened by this apparent Chinese support, Pakis invaded India in 65, and would have wrested Kashmir but for some bold strategies by the army which quickly opened another front and went upto Lahore.

And then 71 happened and with the loss of Bangladesh and the heavy defeat, many Indians thought that Paki belligerence will come to an end. It actually was for more than a decade until the Chinese proliferated nukes to Pakistan.

Emboldened by this, Pakistan let loose terrorism on India. India could not respond by invading Pakistan because of the nuclear blackmail. So we have been enduring a vicious terrorism for close to two decades now with more than 50,000 dead. Two divisions tied down in Kashmir and billions have been spent in the upkeep of the state. For ex, just a day in Siachen alone (the world's highest battlefield) costs us millions a day. A soldier dies every other day in Siachen. More than 2000 soldiers have died there and not one to a bullet or enemy action. All this because of the Chinese posture and the Karakoram highway and the threat it poses.

Thus, India is kept occupied responding to the Pakistani security threat instead of focussing on socio-economic improvements. And every time we seem to pull away from Pakistan in military capability terms, the Chinese give Pakis something which changes the equilibrium and forces us to keep spending. Witness the latest cruise missile Babur that the Chinese gave and was "tested" by Pakistan.

This is what the Chinese gain.