NationStates Jolt Archive


The Bird Flu...Are we screwed?

The Goa uld
18-11-2005, 05:48
Is it the next Spanish Flu that killed millions worldwide? Or is this all blown out of proportion?
AllCoolNamesAreTaken
18-11-2005, 05:51
Blown out of proportion. Unless you're 90, have AIDS, or have a severely weakened immune system.
Antikythera
18-11-2005, 05:57
yes.......the spanish influenxa killed mostly young adults, if you were between that ages of 15 and 26 you died
The Goa uld
18-11-2005, 06:01
yes.......the spanish influenxa killed mostly young adults, if you were between that ages of 15 and 26 you died
And that made the Spanish flu less dangerous why?
Rotovia-
18-11-2005, 06:02
Yes, assuming:
A person infected with human flue, became infected with bird flue and then the two viruses mutated and then that person passed it on.

You'd also be screwed if:
The Earth shifted on it's axis, began hurdling into the sun & collided with the moon.
Antikythera
18-11-2005, 06:21
And that made the Spanish flu less dangerous why?

"yes" in responce to the fact that the bird ful is being blow out of proportion

Blown out of proportion. Unless you're 90, have AIDS, or have a severely weakened immune system.
my other comment was in to this

sorry i should have been clearer
Secluded Islands
18-11-2005, 06:41
its a bird conspiracy. i think they are upset that we dont clean the bird baths often enough...
Rotovia-
18-11-2005, 06:49
its a bird conspiracy. i think they are upset that we dont clean the bird baths often enough...
Or that mine are empty and even when they're full my cats are normally hiding close by to kill the fuckers...
The Eliki
18-11-2005, 07:04
It's either blown way out of proportion by mainstream media, or we all need to start eating more beef.
Todeshallen
18-11-2005, 16:09
I died of SARs last year when it went into a huge epidemic and killed three-quarters of a million people in the UK.
Socan
18-11-2005, 16:16
i read in the daily sport if u get bird flu you turn into a seagull
I V Stalin
18-11-2005, 16:40
It's been estimated that in the UK, the worst case scenario is that 50000 people will die of bird flu. So that gives you a 0.01666...% chance of dying of it, at worst. You are more likely to be hit by a bus. PANIC, people, PANIC! Teh buses are going to take over teh world!!!!!11!!!!!1!!!1!111
Ahem.
It isn't going to be as bad as Spanish flu...that killed 18 million of a world population of about 2 billion...bird flu might get 5 million if it's lucky, and most of those will be in the far east.
Socan
19-11-2005, 00:41
People in the far east take all the shit dont they
Bolol
19-11-2005, 00:47
Yeah...these are the same guys that said SARS would be the death of us all. Worthy of note: SARS also came from Asia...hmm...
Eutrusca
19-11-2005, 00:48
Is it the next Spanish Flu that killed millions worldwide? Or is this all blown out of proportion?
No, it's not being blown out of proportion at all. Should the virus mutate to enable transmission between humans ( as opposed to just from birds to humans as it does now ), the death toll could easily be in the millions. So far, this mutation doesn't seem to have occured, but this is the same pattern several other flu pandemics have followed: first from animal to human, then picking up DNA from other viruses which are already passing from human to human, then virtually exploding into a pandemic.

To learn more, this would be a good starting point: http://avianflu.typepad.com/avianflu/
Eutrusca
19-11-2005, 00:49
It's either blown way out of proportion by mainstream media, or we all need to start eating more beef.
It cannot be transmitted through cooked food.
Eutrusca
19-11-2005, 00:50
Blown out of proportion. Unless you're 90, have AIDS, or have a severely weakened immune system.
Or have children, or are pregnant, or are just getting over another bug of some sort, or ... or ... or.
Bolol
19-11-2005, 00:58
It's either blown way out of proportion by mainstream media...

No...Really? News flash: The media blows everything out of proportion! Terry Shiavo, Michael Jackson, BRAD AND JENN!

I'd be more worried about contracting FOXDIE...And that's a FICTIONAL disease for God's sake!

...or we all need to start eating more beef.

I'm down with that. Know a good burger place?
Drunk commies deleted
19-11-2005, 01:04
The media may blow things out of proportion, but the WHO and similar organizations don't usually do so. They seem worried. We're statistically overdue for a flu epidemic, The last time a flu virus related to this one made the jump to humans alot of people died, modern air travel means a virus can spread very quickly, and viruses mutate fast. One viron infecting one cell produces many copies of itself, each one could carry a mutation that allows for fast human to human contagion. Multiply that by millions of virons in each infected person or bird and the odds of it becomming a human disease look pretty scary.

Maybe it will all blow over, but we should have contingency plans in place in case it doesn't.
Avika
19-11-2005, 01:27
The media blows lots of stuff out of proportion. SARS was supposed to kill us all. Oooops. The terrorists were supposed to kill all of our troops in Iraq. Less than 2500 out of how many hundred thousand that have been there? Afghanistan was supposed to be this place where democracy was impossible. A few months later and they were wrong. I doubt a single disease which hasn't even mutated into a human to human disease would finish the job small pox and HIV so far have failed and those are far deadlier. Even Ebola has human-human capabilities and not even that has done any damage in the US. Heck, the liberals were saying that Bush would kill us all with many, many invasions. It's hypocritical once you realize that these are the same idiots calling him a moron. Either he's an evil genious or a moron. Can't have it both ways.
Raharna
19-11-2005, 01:37
It's blown out of proportion ... take it from a biochemistry student.
Kevlanakia
19-11-2005, 01:54
Yes, assuming:
A person infected with human flue, became infected with bird flue and then the two viruses mutated and then that person passed it on.

Huh?
Amerigo
19-11-2005, 02:01
Actually, its the coming apocalypse... I mean come on...

The avian flu pandemic... riots... hurricanes... terrorists... It's the coming of the end.
Eutrusca
19-11-2005, 02:37
It's blown out of proportion ... take it from a biochemistry student.
Get a degree in virology and genetics and I might take your word for it. :)
Mindlab-Deliverance
19-11-2005, 20:01
The infuenza virus in a virus that can mutate very fast. It's a bit to early to say but it could be very deadly.
I guess it will mutate into a virus that goes from one man to the other. But researchers will get a vaccin till then. (I hope)
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 15:51
Blown out of proportion. Unless you're 90, have AIDS, or have a severely weakened immune system.

Actually bird flu turns the immune system against the victim so a strong immune system is NOT a defence.
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 15:54
Actually bird flu turns the immune system against the victim so a strong immune system is NOT a defence.
Which may go a long way toward explaining the widespread concern, yes?
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 15:56
It's been estimated that in the UK, the worst case scenario is that 50000 people will die of bird flu. So that gives you a 0.01666...% chance of dying of it, at worst. You are more likely to be hit by a bus. PANIC, people, PANIC! Teh buses are going to take over teh world!!!!!11!!!!!1!!!1!111
Ahem.
It isn't going to be as bad as Spanish flu...that killed 18 million of a world population of about 2 billion...bird flu might get 5 million if it's lucky, and most of those will be in the far east.

Actually the highest estimate for the UK is 15 times that, 750,000. That's about 1 in 80.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 15:58
Which may go a long way toward explaining the widespread concern, yes?

Yup, although I think it all depends on which strain mutates. The most dangerous would act like that but some of the less dangerous ones work conventionally.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:00
Out of interest, can anyone remember what the WHO's reaction was about SARS?
Secluded Islands
20-11-2005, 16:01
Actually the highest estimate for the UK is 15 times that, 750,000. That's about 1 in 80.

1 in 80?? geez
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:02
Yup, although I think it all depends on which strain mutates. The most dangerous would act like that but some of the less dangerous ones work conventionally.
So it's more than a double-threat? God, I hope those geneticists and virologists know what they're doing! :eek:
The Jovian Moons
20-11-2005, 16:02
Repent sinners the end is near! Also end of the world t-shirts are just $19.95, and the world is just fine t-shirts are half off! Buy two armagedon coffe mugs and get a third one free! Order now, before its too late!
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:03
1 in 80?? geez
The hard way to implement "population control." :(
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:04
Repent sinners the end is near! Also end of the world t-shirts are just $19.95, and the world is just fine t-shirts are half off! Buy two armagedon coffe mugs and get a third one free! Order now, before its too late!
You need to start a career as a marketer! :p
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:05
So it's more than a double-threat? God, I hope those geneticists and virologists know what they're doing! :eek:

While I'm no expert I think the odds of two different strains mutating into human-transmittable form are pretty slim. We already have some stocks of Tamiflu to treat those who catch it. They will be able to produce a vaccine but there's no point in doing so until we see which strain mutates.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:06
1 in 80?? geez

That is the very top estimate. It'll probably be lower, especially if we're lucky and it's a weak form of the virus that mutates.
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:06
While I'm no expert I think the odds of two different strains mutating into human-transmittable form are pretty slim. We already have some stocks of Tamiflu to treat those who catch it. They will be able to produce a vaccine but there's no point in doing so until we see which strain mutates.
Well, that affair with the SARS virus doesn't exactly encourage confidence. :(
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:07
Repent sinners the end is near! Also end of the world t-shirts are just $19.95, and the world is just fine t-shirts are half off! Buy two armagedon coffe mugs and get a third one free! Order now, before its too late!

*frantically applies to every organised religion in the area confessing for many sins*
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:08
*frantically applies to every organised religion in the area confessing for many sins*
Hehehe! Let me know if it works. I'll be an equal opportunity religionist too! :D
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:10
Well, that affair with the SARS virus doesn't exactly encourage confidence. :(

What did the WHO predict when SARS was around? Were they expecting it to be a pandemic? I was too young to take it in at the time.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:18
Hehehe! Let me know if it works. I'll be an equal opportunity religionist too! :D

Dear Sir/Madam

I am writing to confirm that I accept Jesus/God/G_d/Vishnu/Allah/the Buddha/the Flying Spaghetti Monster/the chief Jedi [delete as applicable] as my personal saviour.

I hereby confess to all my sins except the ones that nobody ever found out about.

Yours in gibbering panic
Randomlittleisland
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:23
What did the WHO predict when SARS was around? Were they expecting it to be a pandemic? I was too young to take it in at the time.
As I recall, there was considerable confusion about what was to be done. Turned out to be a false alarm, but didn't exactly inspire confidence.
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:24
Dear Sir/Madam

I am writing to confirm that I accept Jesus/God/G_d/Vishnu/Allah/the Buddha/the Flying Spaghetti Monster/the chief Jedi [delete as applicable] as my personal saviour.

I hereby confess to all my sins except the ones that nobody ever found out about.

Yours in gibbering panic
Randomlittleisland
ROFLMAO! Um ... can I borrow that? :D
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:27
ROFLMAO! Um ... can I borrow that? :D

You're experiencing a sudden spiritual revelation too huh? What a coincidence...:p
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:28
You're experiencing a sudden spiritual revelation too huh? What a coincidence...:p
Heh! As we use to say in Vietnam, "There are no atheists in foxholes!" :D
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:34
Heh! As we use to say in Vietnam, "There are no atheists in foxholes!" :D

No no no. This time it's the birds, not the foxes. A better saying would be 'There are no atheists up trees.';)
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:36
No no no. This time it's the birds, not the foxes. A better saying would be 'There are no atheists up trees.';)
No, but there's a bird up yours! LOL!

[ For the uninformed, that's from an old Smothers Brothers comdey routine. ]
Muesilania
20-11-2005, 16:38
Yes, assuming:
A person infected with human flue, became infected with bird flue and then the two viruses mutated and then that person passed it on.

You'd also be screwed if:
The Earth shifted on it's axis, began hurdling into the sun & collided with the moon.

LMAO! :D

I think this has been blown out of proportion.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 16:41
No, but there's a bird up yours! LOL!

[ For the uninformed, that's from an old Smothers Brothers comdey routine. ]

I always wondered where it came from. I've never actually heard of the Smothers Brothers before so I'm guessing they never made it over the Atlantic.
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 16:52
I always wondered where it came from. I've never actually heard of the Smothers Brothers before so I'm guessing they never made it over the Atlantic.
They were the first to propose the actual solution to the Vietnam War: "Just say we won and come home!" :D
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 17:06
They were the first to propose the actual solution to the Vietnam War: "Just say we won and come home!" :D

ROFL!!!
Snorklenork
20-11-2005, 17:15
One nobel prize winner (who won the prize for determining that flu is carried by birds, he also worked on the team that determined that the cold virus has an aparently non-mutating section), said that the chances of bird flu mutating into a human-transmissable form is very very low. Basically, as someone else in the thread said, it has to infect someone who has ordinary flu and then cross over. He claimed in the past 50 years there must have been millions of situations where this could have occured, yet it didn't, for some reason. So the chances of some bird flu outbreak in humans is very low.

However, he did say that the chances that some other virus becomes a pandemic like the Spanish flu is nearly 100%. Therefore, we should not prepare for a specific virus pandemic, but for a general one.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 17:20
However, he did say that the chances that some other virus becomes a pandemic like the Spanish flu is nearly 100%. Therefore, we should not prepare for a specific virus pandemic, but for a general one.

What kind of time-scale is he talking about?
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 17:23
LMAO! :D

I think this has been blown out of proportion.
That happened to me once. Fortunately I was able to rise to the occasion! :D
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 17:24
What kind of time-scale is he talking about?
Weeks.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 17:26
Weeks.

:confused:
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 17:30
:confused:
Weeks for the mutated virus to spread wordwide. I don't know how long it would take for the virus to mutate; I don't think anyone knows that.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 17:31
However, he did say that the chances that some other virus becomes a pandemic like the Spanish flu is nearly 100%. Therefore, we should not prepare for a specific virus pandemic, but for a general one.

I'm fed up of all the indecision over which virus is going to wipe out the human race. I think we need to hold a pop-idol type competition, called 'Virus-Idol', judged by Simon Cowell and Kelly Osbourne.
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 17:32
Weeks for the mutated virus to spread wordwide. I don't know how long it would take for the virus to mutate; I don't think anyone knows that.

Ah, thank you. I was getting worried there.:)
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 17:39
Ah, thank you. I was getting worried there.:)
Sometimes, it's good to be worried.

It's good to the the King too, but that's another comedy routine. :D
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 18:21
Sometimes, it's good to be worried.

It's good to the the King too, but that's another comedy routine. :D

*smiles nervously, nods and backs slowly away, carefully avoiding eye-contact*
Eutrusca
20-11-2005, 18:23
*smiles nervously, nods and backs slowly away, carefully avoiding eye-contact*
Mwahahahaha! [ throws chicken pot-pies in your general direction ] :D
Randomlittleisland
20-11-2005, 18:50
Mwahahahaha! [ throws chicken pot-pies in your general direction ] :D

*jumps into the air in slow-motion, performs a triple backflip and eats a chicken pot-pie*

Is that the best you've got.:p
Snorklenork
21-11-2005, 07:05
What kind of time-scale is he talking about?
He didn't say. The problem is it's very unpredictable, like asteriods hitting the Earth the occurance is very irregular. There were three pandemics in the last century, one in 1918, one in the 1950s and one in the 1960s. So the error bound on any point estimate would be quite large, maybe 50 years or more.

I'm fed up of all the indecision over which virus is going to wipe out the human race. I think we need to hold a pop-idol type competition, called 'Virus-Idol', judged by Simon Cowell and Kelly Osbourne.
Well, it wouldn't wipe out the human race. The 1918 virus only killed about 1% to 2% of those it infected.


Here's the transcript of the debate on Insight on Australia's SBS:link (http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/trans.php?transid=956)

And if you'd rather watch the actual programme go here (http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/mmarchive.php?archive=1&artmon=10&arty=2005) and select the links under October 18.
Marquette Fleurs
21-11-2005, 07:09
it could be bad but it is 1 in a hundred that it will kill more than 2 hundred people. If it is that bad we are looking at 10-50,000 deaths....My brother works for FEMA
Demented Hamsters
21-11-2005, 09:26
I read a good article the other day about the bird flu and the media's (over)reaction.
It pointed out some of the recent 'epidemics' we've gone through.

Like Y2K - remember the planes falling from the skies, the power grid failing completely, the nuclear missiles being activated and launched? God knows how we managed to get through that!

What about Mad Cow Disease? In 1995 the British health authorities estimated 10 000 000 would die in Britain alone from it. In 1998 this was revised to 1 000 000. In 2002 it was revised again.
To 32.
So far just 17 have died, which is 5 less than the number of Beef farmers who killed themselves during the scare due to stress and having lost everything.

Then there was SARs, which was going to kill millions. It wasted 600 and something worldwide. In Hong Kong, it killed 299, with most coming from one apartment building where they were infected due to a lousy poorly-maintained sewage system. 299 out of 7 000 000 ain't that much. Prob not much more than the numbers who die here each year from the common 'flu.
Yet the scare totally screwed the economy here. Thousands fled. Schools + nearly all public facilities shut down.

Now we have the 'worst killer' since the last one. 150 000 000 could die! So far in 7 years it's been 64, all of whom got it from direct contact with live birds. Cooking chicken kills the virus incidently.
Maybe it's just coincidence, but the only supplier of Tamiflu in the US has as one of it's major shareholders Donald Rumsfield. Stocks in this company have increased 800% since the scare started.
Le Tirane
21-11-2005, 15:20
guess it will mutate into a virus that goes from one man to the other. But researchers will get a vaccin till then. (I hope)
Thye could only get a vaccine after the virus had stopped mutating which would be after almost all of are dedad

My opinion this isn't good i'm going north if this happenes (i'm from saskatchewan which has way 2 many birds)
New Historia
21-11-2005, 15:29
Is it the next Spanish Flu that killed millions worldwide? Or is this all blown out of proportion?


ummmm....yes!

Assuming you're a bird!
Zorpbuggery
22-11-2005, 12:02
No disease can truly wipe out the human race: either it's so infectous and lethal that it kills its victims instantly and is buried with its first victiom, or its so slow our immune systems will de able to cope. Anything in between is just like the Black Death: nasty, but nothing that quarantine can't solve.
HandToHandGunFights
22-11-2005, 15:18
It's been blown completely out of proportion at this stage the only way you get bird flu is if you went out and hugged a turkey that had been on holidays in malaysia
Eutrusca
22-11-2005, 15:22
*jumps into the air in slow-motion, performs a triple backflip and eats a chicken pot-pie*

Is that the best you've got.:p
Uh ... no, but I reserve the "best I've got" for those who really, REALLY piss me off, like pedophiles and rapists and the sort. Trust me, you do not want to be in that crowd! Mwahahahaha! :D