NationStates Jolt Archive

Many people have told me that Bush is unpopular - because a poll told them so. I know quite a few people whose opinion one way or another about Bush hasn't changed since the first election (but what do I know - I'm never polled, and neither is anyone I know).

So, for those who love poll numbers, and think we should follow them as an indication of what people want the government to do:

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=19843

November 14, 2005
Americans Generally Favor Alito Appointment
Closer to Roberts than to Miers in popularity


by Lydia Saad


GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The American public generally supports President George W. Bush's third nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. By a 2-to-1 margin, 50% to 25%, Americans say the Senate should vote to confirm Judge Samuel Alito. Another 25% of Americans have no opinion about his confirmation -- not atypical for public attitudes about Supreme Court nominees.

This 50% support for Alito contrasts with the more restrained support received by the previous nominee, White House counsel Harriet Miers, before she withdrew her name amid growing controversy over her candidacy. In Gallup's initial reading on Miers, only 44% of Americans said she should be confirmed, while 36% disagreed.

Public support for Alito is only slightly less favorable than that for Judge John Roberts when Bush initially named him to succeed the retiring Justice O'Connor.

Reaction to Alito differs by party, although not overwhelmingly so. While the vast majority of Republicans (73%) favor Alito's confirmation, fewer than half of Democrats (40%) oppose it. In fact, by a 40% to 35% margin, only a slight plurality of Democrats oppose Alito's confirmation.

Listen to the people? What a dangerously radical idea. If we cared what the people thought, we'd have proportional representation.

Of course, you fail to cite the poll that notes that if Alito favors overturning Roe v Wade, Americans say he ought to be rejected around 60-40. And considering what he's written in the past, and how he's decided cases in the past, thinking he'd overturn Roe isn't much of a stretch.

Of course, you fail to cite the poll that notes that if Alito favors overturning Roe v Wade, Americans say he ought to be rejected around 60-40. And considering what he's written in the past, and how he's decided cases in the past, thinking he'd overturn Roe isn't much of a stretch.

Nothing in the poll about Roe. And considering that the Democrats and Republicans have both made the noise so loud about abortion (as though it were the only matter before the Supreme Court), it's not a secret. And they polled this way anyway.

If abortion is so popular, and you want it guaranteed, it's a simple matter to get a Constitutional amendment - that way, no matter who gets on the Supreme Court, it's set in stone.

With a popular idea at 60 percent or higher, it should be an easy walk to get such an amendment.

I think both parties should start legislating and stop using the judiciary to legislate.

snip
What a sneeky little survey ... they made a dependant anaylsis seem like an independant one in a lot of them

Very sneeky

BTW using a two variable dependant introduces more error when you try to take that line equation and turn it back into a single variable one

What a sneeky little survey ... they made a dependant anaylsis seem like an independant one in a lot of them

Very sneeky

BTW using a two variable dependant introduces more error when you try to take that line equation and turn it back into a single variable one


What do you mean?

What a sneeky little survey ... they made a dependant anaylsis seem like an independant one in a lot of them

Very sneeky

BTW using a two variable dependant introduces more error when you try to take that line equation and turn it back into a single variable one

Hey, it's Gallup. Who is going to question them?

I really liked the ABC News poll that was cited as the rock bottom Bush numbers a little over a week ago. Found out that their sample was 66 percent people who identified themselves as Democrats.

Would be more interesting to read polls and assign meaning to them if I knew EVERYTHING that went into it.

If abortion is so popular, and you want it guaranteed, it's a simple matter to get a Constitutional amendment - that way, no matter who gets on the Supreme Court, it's set in stone.

With a popular idea at 60 percent or higher, it should be an easy walk to get such an amendment.

I think both parties should start legislating and stop using the judiciary to legislate.
If abortion is so unpopular, why not get an amendment banning it? Because you know as well as I do that getting an amendment passed is damn near impossible, so we fight it out over shit like this instead.

Hey, it's Gallup. Who is going to question them?

I really liked the ABC News poll that was cited as the rock bottom Bush numbers a little over a week ago. Found out that their sample was 66 percent people who identified themselves as Democrats.

Would be more interesting to read polls and assign meaning to them if I knew EVERYTHING that went into it.
I do ... but its more misrepresentation then actual survey errors

If abortion is so unpopular, why not get an amendment banning it? Because you know as well as I do that getting an amendment passed is damn near impossible, so we fight it out over shit like this instead.

If 2/3rds of the people want an abortion, it should be easy to get an amendment specifically protecting it. No problem.

It's not impossible - it's just that people don't want to do the work required. They would rather roll the dice with a justice they "think" will vote their way.

That completely corrupts the intention behind the judiciary.

I do ... but its more misrepresentation then actual survey errors

You almost never hear about the sample composition.

What do you mean?
Here is a hint the survey was taken with two (and in places three)
And you are suposed to find the error and which is less (the stats)

(In sucession)

Judge Roberts acception
myers attempt
Then alto's nomination

The third is depended on comparison of the first two and their relation

But they perport it as a one (alto yes or no) ... that introduces error in your line fit

I wish I had more of their data so I could break down your SSError PVal and R^2 for you but they dont provide me enough info to really get into it

Anyways later (I am sure I made errors in my explination ...Ill attempt to take care of it after I get done teaching my course)

Here is a hint the survey was taken with two (and in places three)
And you are suposed to find the error and which is less (the stats)

(In sucession)

Judge Roberts acception
myers attempt
Then alto's nomination

The third is depended on comparison of the first two and their relation

But they perport it as a one (alto yes or no) ... that introduces error in your line fit

I wish I had more of their data so I could break down your SSError PVal and R^2 for you but they dont provide me enough info to really get into it

Anyways later (I am sure I made errors in my explination ...Ill attempt to take care of it after I get done teaching my course)


oh ok *wanders off slightly less AND slightly more confused*

Listen to the people? What a dangerously radical idea. If we cared what the people thought, we'd have proportional representation.

pfft the government can't even put through a nominee without it getting rejected. Think how much weaker the government would be under PR ;)

Here is a hint the survey was taken with two (and in places three)
And you are suposed to find the error and which is less (the stats)

(In sucession)

Judge Roberts acception
myers attempt
Then alto's nomination

The third is depended on comparison of the first two and their relation

But they perport it as a one (alto yes or no) ... that introduces error in your line fit

I wish I had more of their data so I could break down your SSError PVal and R^2 for you but they dont provide me enough info to really get into it

Anyways later (I am sure I made errors in my explination ...Ill attempt to take care of it after I get done teaching my course)


Part of the reason that the Kerry Campaign was so amazed by the election results was that they had total faith in the polls - faith in statistics and projections.

You can be fooled by polls and statistics - the more you believe in them and the more you want to believe in them, the further you're willing to go to ignore obvious errors (sampling or otherwise).

polls are absolute and utter bullshit in substance, but useful tools for manipulators over simpletons.

I've never been polled either, but I've seen people taking polls.
You've seen them too. Remember? Did they appear as if they could get a different job at the top of an escalator?
Will some of them also be working as elves and Santa come holiday season?

A poll has never influenced my decision before. Its only made me look harder at something..

Part of the reason that the Kerry Campaign was so amazed by the election results was that they had total faith in the polls - faith in statistics and projections.

You can be fooled by polls and statistics - the more you believe in them and the more you want to believe in them, the further you're willing to go to ignore obvious errors (sampling or otherwise).
Yup but if you know how to interpret them and recognize accuracy they can be an amazing tool to gauge perdicted values

Weather that be in a political envyronment or engeneering

polls are absolute and utter bullshit in substance, but useful tools for manipulators over simpletons.

I've never been polled either, but I've seen people taking polls.
You've seen them too. Remember? Did they appear as if they could get a different job at the top of an escalator?
Will some of them also be working as elves and Santa come holiday season?

A poll has never influenced my decision before. Its only made me look harder at something..
Maybe not directly but regression is used in almost every science field known to man

Just about your whole life was derived in some way by stats and sampling polls

You choose to only see the obvious signs of their influance on you and in some of their simpelist forms