NationStates Jolt Archive

Ok, the year 2006 is a commin and I want to see what people think will happen in the Off-Year elections for the Senate.

Currently Bush's approval rating has hit 30-40%, the biggest low in US history, bar none (NIXON had higher approval ratings during the Watergate Scandal!), but Congress is in the same boat with straight out 30%.

Which party will win, Democrats, Republicans?

Or will a third party like the Greens shock us with a voter revolution and send one of the current power parties the way of the Whigs?

Or will a third party like the Greens shock us with a voter revolution and send one of the current power parties the way of the Whigs?
LOL! It will be a cold day in Crawford, TX...:D

Olara']LOL! It will be a cold day in Crawford, TX...:D

Hey, I can dream can't I?:)

Ok, the year 2006 is a commin and I want to see what people think will happen in the Off-Year elections for the Senate.

Currently Bush's approval rating has hit 30-40%, the biggest low in US history, bar none (NIXON had higher approval ratings during the Watergate Scandal!), but Congress is in the same boat with straight out 30%.

Which party will win, Democrats, Republicans?

Or will a third party like the Greens shock us with a voter revolution and send one of the current power parties the way of the Whigs?

Who's up and where? (i'm lazy today)

According to this poll (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/poll20051109.pdf) (warning pdf file), which was reported on Daily Kos, it seems that there's a big anti-incumbent feel right now.
In the 2006 election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?

Deserves to be reelected 37 (49)
Give new person a chance 51 (34)
The bracketed numbers are trend lines, so the trend is toward anti-incumbency. The Republicans will be defending more seats, so that could translate into net gains for the Democrats. I say could because we're a long way off from the elections. Also, there's something to say for the Democrats having taken a beating in the south last election--we don't have as many difficult seats to hold anymore. Bill Nelson in Florida will walk all over Catherine Harris if she gets the nod from the Republicans. That'll just be ugly. I also currently like Democratic chances for a pickup in Pennsylvania with Rick Santorum mired in the 30s against Casey.

But we're a long way off. I'd personally like to see an anti-incumbent fervor sweep the country for more than partisan reasons--we need to shake things up a bit every so often just to get new crooks in who don't know the game as well as the old crooks.

Hey, I can dream can't I?:)
I think a surge in third party Senators qualifies as a bit beyond what dreaming can do.

Anyway, I don't even know which Senators from where are up for re-election, and I think that has a lot to do with it. People have been dissatisfied with Presidents in the past, and people are always dissatisfied with Congress. That doesn't always translate into individual Congresspeople/Senators getting voted out, however. For instance, I think neither Roberts nor Brownback (the Senators from my state) are in danger of being voted out anytime soon.

Bump

There's going to be little change, simply because people aren't anymore satisfied with the Democrats than they are with the Republicans. The incumbent advantage is so huge that there is no chance a third party will get in, and no strong challengers to topple incumbents. Things are probably going to be little changed, or at most a Democrat will gain a seat or two.

Olara']I think a surge in third party Senators qualifies as a bit beyond what dreaming can do.
Maybe if we could somehow prove that the Democrat and Republican candidates were in bed with each other recently? As in literally in bed with each other. People really don't get excited about a good sex scandal anymore, but maybe if we could convince the Democrats that their candidate now has Republican Cooties (and vice-versa) it would work.

I don't know which party gets more tired of their Senators acting like the opposition party, the Republicans or the Democrats. Depends on where you look--people at the Daily Kos are always complaining about DINOs and those at the Free Republic are always complaining about RINOs, and yet both sides always manage to get out and vote for their candidates, no matter how much they bitch.

What I wouldn't give for the 90's! When our worst political worry was about which jew-intern was having sex with the president this week, and which mayor was caught smoking crack with a hooker on the bed.

Ok, the year 2006 is a commin and I want to see what people think will happen in the Off-Year elections for the Senate.

Currently Bush's approval rating has hit 30-40%, the biggest low in US history, bar none (NIXON had higher approval ratings during the Watergate Scandal!), but Congress is in the same boat with straight out 30%.

Which party will win, Democrats, Republicans?

Or will a third party like the Greens shock us with a voter revolution and send one of the current power parties the way of the Whigs?

None, for I intend to incite the Second Civil War well before the 2006 elections.

bump

Republican senators that might have a difficult time if they run again in 2006
Rick Santorum, PA: 45% approval, 48% disapproval
Mike DeWine, OH: 45%, 43%
Bill Frist, TX: 49%, 45%

Democratic senators that might have a difficult time if they run in 2006
Mark Dayton, MN: 44% approval, 46% disapproval
whoever replaces Jon Corzine, NJ

The other 28 won't be competitive except where the incumbent resigns, dies, or retires. There's also the possibility that another incumbent senator could end up in some scandal or something to make reelection more difficult.

source: http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/100USSenators1005SortbyNetApproval.htm

edit: The other senators with low approval ratings would run in 2008 or 2010 so they're a nonissue here

48% Democrat
52 Republican
3% Green

I know DeWine's gonna have a bit of trouble, due to his involvement in the Gang of 14 deal. Lots of conservatives pissed off about that.

I am expecting Dakota to be a close race.

Republicans in Danger:

-Rick Santorum
-Mike DeWine

Democrats in Danger:

-Mark Dayton (though I don't think he's running this time round).
-Hillary Clinton (I have a feeling she'll come unstuck at some point).

Happy Independants:

-Bernie Sanders (who'll be the first socialist elected for the Senate).

If Hillary had or has any ambition to become US President i dont thinkshe coul get away with losing now even if the next Us election is in 4 years.