NationStates Jolt Archive

i've been thinking about the inevitable election we'll be having in the next few months lately, and i can't figure it out. the polling data changes nearly daily, and although the liberals usually have a comfortable lead on the tories, the release of another scandelous bit of info near election day could conceivably tip the scale in steve harper's favour last minute, causing the conservative party to beat out the lib's by a seat or two, creating a conservative minority government.

the question is: then what? harper's proven himself to be rather strident on issues, and rather abraisive toward the other parties, so how'd he maintain a minority long enough to get any governing done? the lib's, obviously, wouldn't want to help, since they'd benefit most from his failure, and the NDP find a good many of his foreign policy and social ideas repugnant, so it'd be hard to keep them in any sort of alliance. would he turn to the bloc for support? because other than shared hatred of the liberal party, i'm not sure what they'd have in common...

and, as a follow up, would harpers failure to maintain a minority more than a few months further damage his credibility, and the credibility of his party, and if so how much? beacause frankly, while i don't like the conservative party or harper much at all (in fact, they both scare the crap out of me) i'm getting tired of the liberals thinking that governing this country is their birthright, and they're the only party that seems likely to get harper out of office any time soon.

While I am a Conservative, I do realize that if a Conservative Minority Government gets elected that it will not last long. It is simply that when you have that kind of situation the Conservatives differ on most issues with everyone else. This causes problems when you need the support of the other parties. I really hope he doesn't try and garner support in the Bloc. That would send chills up my spine. I think that the only good that could come out of the next election is a Conserative Majority Government, but that will never happen. I predict another less strong Liberal Minority Government. If the Liberals won a Majority I would have a Heart Attack and then go on a kiling rampage.

What I expect will happen, come election time, is another Liberal minority, with the liberals just barely getting on top. Harper's ideas seem enough to drive people who voted Liberal to vote, NDP/Green/other, while the 'conservative' base will be retained. If the Liberals can't get a minority, it will be an Alliance minority, and I think Harper will have trouble keeping that up. I think that if a conservative minority does fail, Harper's image and credibility will plummet

Could someone enlighten me as to who Harper is? I thought I had figured out that he was the Conservative party leader, but some of these posts throw that into question. Thanks.

Olara']Could someone enlighten me as to who Harper is?Harper is Bush's lapdog. Need more about him?

BTW the Conservative will never have a majority government, not in a hundred years. If Harper got elected, it'll be a very shaky minority gov't like Joe Clark's PC gov't back in the 80s.

Harper is Bush's lapdog. Need more about him?

BTW the Conservative will never have a majority government, not in a hundred years. If Harper got elected, it'll be a very shaky minority gov't like Joe Clark back in the 70s.
Clark "lead" Canada in 1980.

Clark "lead" Canada in 1980.fixed ;)

While I am a Conservative, I do realize that if a Conservative Minority Government gets elected that it will not last long. It is simply that when you have that kind of situation the Conservatives differ on most issues with everyone else. This causes problems when you need the support of the other parties. I really hope he doesn't try and garner support in the Bloc. That would send chills up my spine. I think that the only good that could come out of the next election is a Conserative Majority Government, but that will never happen. I predict another less strong Liberal Minority Government. If the Liberals won a Majority I would have a Heart Attack and then go on a kiling rampage.

well, i'm in alberta as well, so you want some company on that rampage? i'm thinking another, weaker liberal minority would be the ideal, but i have to agree, paul martin doing whatever he wants to and not having to be held accountable to anyone is pretty much a nightmare. harper would be just as bad/worse, but martin wouldn't be pretty. plus, if a tory and an ndp supporter went on a politically-motivated rampage together, maybe it could heal some of the political rifts in this country. now, let's find somebody from quebec and bring him along. canadians of diverse opinion, from different regions, united in their distaste for the post-gomery liberal party. inspiring, isn't it?

well, i'm in alberta as well, so you want some company on that rampage? i'm thinking another, weaker liberal minority would be the ideal, but i have to agree, paul martin doing whatever he wants to and not having to be held accountable to anyone is pretty much a nightmare. harper would be just as bad/worse, but martin wouldn't be pretty. plus, if a tory and an ndp supporter went on a politically-motivated rampage together, maybe it could heal some of the political rifts in this country. now, let's find somebody from quebec and bring him along. canadians of diverse opinion, from different regions, united in their distaste for the post-gomery liberal party. inspiring, isn't it?

Yep, So you supprot the NDP where are you from? My guess is Redmonton...Err, I mean Edmonton. Anyways, I would enjoy some company on my Rampage although I might do it in Ottwa rather that here in Southern Alberta. I think Parliament would be a good start. We'd leave the Conservatives alone and if you come along I guess we can spare the NDP. The other parties are fair game, barring a fifth party get's any seats.

Yep, So you supprot the NDP where are you from? My guess is Redmonton...Err, I mean Edmonton. Anyways, I would enjoy some company on my Rampage although I might do it in Ottwa rather that here in Southern Alberta. I think Parliament would be a good start. We'd leave the Conservatives alone and if you come along I guess we can spare the NDP. The other parties are fair game, barring a fifth party get's any seats.

edmonton's exactly right. and are you sure you want to make me that offer? because if we kill all the liberal politicians, i think more of the liberal voter's'd vote for my guys rather than yours. and yeah, ottowa'd be the best place to start.

edmonton's exactly right. and are you sure you want to make me that offer? because if we kill all the liberal politicians, i think more of the liberal voter's'd vote for my guys rather than yours. and yeah, ottowa'd be the best place to start.

I don't know I think a lot of the Liberal Voters are just as scared as the NDP as they are of the Conservatives. Hence, They vote Liberal. I think that most Fiscal Conservatives in the Liberal Party would vote Conservative. For some reason I think the Corporate Liberal Sponsors would also vote Conservative. Perhaps most would switch to NDP, but I think the Conservatives would still have a higher percentage.

I don't know I think a lot of the Liberal Voters are just as scared as the NDP as they are of the Conservatives. Hence, They vote Liberal. I think that most Fiscal Conservatives in the Liberal Party would vote Conservative. For some reason I think the Corporate Liberal Sponsors would also vote Conservative. Perhaps most would switch to NDP, but I think the Conservatives would still have a higher percentage.

Paul Martin has always been fiscally conservative. Remember how he brought in all those balanced budgets year after year by cutting health and education? But, he is socially progressive, because most Canadians don't want to be 'like the States', i.e. more right-wing than we already are. The old PC party was like that, which was why they were able to actually win a federal election now and again.

The trouble for the right began when the Reform Party showed up, with its conservative fiscal agenda and conservative social agenda. This caused the vote for the Canadian right to split into two camps, the socially progesssive and the socially conservative. This was bad for all conservatives because it split the vote, and weakened both parties. Many old PC voters, watching their party crumble, jumped ship to the Liberals because the Liberals were showing themselves to be fiscally conservative.

Then the two conservative parties joined. Unfortunately for the right, the socially conservative camp won, and Canadians were faced with three options: the Conservatives (fiscally and socially conservative), the Liberals (fiscally conservative and socially progressive), and the NDP (socially and fiscally progressive).

Hopefully this clarifies why the Liberals have done so well since Preston Manning came about. It has nothing to do with the NDP, except that thanks to the machinations of the right, an NDP budget passed through the House of Commons. Yeah Bill C-43!

A conservative minorty would last about as long as Milli Vanilli's careers.

A Liberal minorty, after all, has the advantage that two of the other three sitting parties tend towards liberal preferences on many issues. I mean, the Bloq may be seperatists, but Quebecers are probably the most liberal canadians as a group. So the Liberals have options on finding backing.

The Alliance? Under Mr. Lets_got_to_Iraq_with_our_good_buddy_GW?


Well, he can move into Sussex Street, but I wouldn't bother unpacking....

does nobody have any idea how the tories COULD make it work?

does nobody have any idea how the tories COULD make it work?Become Liberal.

Not as facetious as it sounds. GoG sort of nailed it. The Liberals have managed to take over the fiscally conservative position, leaving the primary differentiation between the two the social issues. For those, the Conservatives are simply on the wrong side of the fence from most Canadians.

Scandal and Gomery aside, the Liberals have been regularly cutting taxes and services provided, which is the basic conservative fiscal line. The conservatives only response to this so far is to try to harp on the scandal, in hopes to show the Canadian public that their fiscal responsibility is better than the Liberals. Unfortunately, their fiscal responsibility has to be a lot better in order to make up for their social agenda -- and they've got to do so despite the shadows of Mulrooney and Clark hanging over their heads.

Meanwhile, the Gomery report came out at just the right time to scare the wimps that are afraid of a Christmas election. This gives the Liberals time to get out the other half of the report, and use that to further distance themselves from the scandal, a "that was then, this is now," type of deal, once they can show that they are and have been making changes to prevent that sort of thing.

I'm actually predicting that the Liberals will win by a small majority at this point, unless the Green party does a great job in their campaign and is able to split the liberal vote enough to allow enough conservatives in to maintain the Liberal minority.