NationStates Jolt Archive

Is global warming genuine?
Is it caused by human action or is it a natural climatic cycle?
Please cite your proof either way.

A new dawn is approaching. The same world that shapes us is shaped by us, and we are altering it in ways unforeseen. Few people seem to care about it one way or another right now. But they will care. An event unprecedented in the earth's history is on the crusp of occurence, and we will witness it in our lifetimes.

The modern world has brought with it threats of colossal proportion, horrific in their simplicity and monolithic nature. Our collective apathy is one of them.

i believe it is a natural cycle, but it has been brought forward by human action. it wasnt supposed to happen for another few hundred millenia, but it is here now, i believe

I was under the impression that pretty much everyone agreed that global warming is a reality. Conservatives merely try to argue that we are not at all at fault. If you ask me, it seems a bit hard to believe them, though. Considering that literally tons upon tons of greenhouse gasses are churned out into the atmosphere every year (a single ton of gas is obviously a lot), it seems likely that we are have something to do with it.

It's real, but humanity is not to blame. The sun is. MARS is experiencing global warming. Is Halliburton cooking something up on Mars? Are the Martians producing excess greenhouse gasses?

The Earth has been warming and cooling all through its history. Now is no different than any of those times. And I know that supposedly the 20th century is the warmest in the last millenium, but keep in mind that in the recent UN study the 11th through 19th centuries were measured with one system (tree ring samples) and the 20th with another (thermometers).

It's real, but humanity is not to blame. The sun is.

source?

Its the cows and pigs I tell ya! They're out to kill us! What's happening is, our natural gas is creating global warming. If we all stopped eating beans and greasy food, I think we'd see a big change in the way the Earth is going. Anyhow, its a natural cycle, but its not like we're helping it any.

Yeah, if it wasn't for the sun, this planet would be gigantic ice ball. Of course, global warming MUST be the suns fault....

It's real, but humanity is not to blame. The sun is. MARS is experiencing global warming. Is Halliburton cooking something up on Mars? Are the Martians producing excess greenhouse gasses?

The Earth has been warming and cooling all through its history. Now is no different than any of those times. And I know that supposedly the 20th century is the warmest in the last millenium, but keep in mind that in the recent UN study the 11th through 19th centuries were measured with one system (tree ring samples) and the 20th with another (thermometers).
I found this when I was looking for your source. Unrelated but funny anyway.

"Prior to joining President Bush's Council on Environmental Quality, Cooney was an oil industry lobbyist. On Tuesday, Exxon Mobil announced it had hired Cooney for as-yet-unspecified duties.

Environmentalists attacked Cooney after documents were published showing his alterations overruled language supplied by government scientists and downplayed a link between human activity and global warming."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/06/15/politics/main702084.shtml

Its the cows and pigs I tell ya! They're out to kill us! What's happening is, our natural gas is creating global warming. If we all stopped eating beans and greasy food, I think we'd see a big change in the way the Earth is going. Anyhow, its a natural cycle, but its not like we're helping it any.

Yeah, if it wasn't for the sun, this planet would be gigantic ice ball. Of course, global warming MUST be the suns fault....
We should all stare the sun down until it becomes intimidated.

We should all stare the sun down until it becomes intimidated.
Don't forget you're eye-protection, or we'll all get corneas/cateracts! :D

Global warming is something that no one can definitively say is happening or not happening. Even the most learned scientists whose job it is to study this topic full-time can't agree on the aspects surrounding it.

The truth is that the weather patterns and water levels around the world flutuate all the time. For every city or region that one can prove there is warming trends, you can find another that has actually cooled. The same goes for water levels... During our recorded history of temperature tracking, we have experienced many ups and downs regarding the average temperature of regions in the world. In the US, the average temperature today is less than 1.2 degrees warmer than it was almost 150 years ago...and actually almost a full degree cooler than it was 50 years ago. All in all, however, we are talking about the difference of a couple degrees....not the type of run for cover global warming that we get spoonfed on the nightly news, huh? But sure, there are regions that have experienced quite an increase in temperature...and what do you know, they are the areas with the largest populations growths! Wow, you mean more people = higher average temperatures?! Yes, they do.

Certainly we have to be conscious of damaging our planet...it is our home. However, the planet will adapt in it's own ways to protect itslef from our abuse. It is a living, breathing thing as well, and is much more well adapted to dealing with us, than we are with it.

This arguement will go on forever...and even when it cools down again in it's natural cycle...we will argue about what we are doing to contribute to the Global Cooling and we are leading ourselves into another Ice Age (another natural cycle in the Earth's life). If you are interested in reading an educated and well researched cynic's thoughts...read Michael Crichton's State of Fear. Even if you just want to hear some theories from someone who has done a lot more research on the matter than any of us. In addition, there are loads of resources in the bibliography you can check out at your local library...it gets pretty interesting.

Sorry this turned out to be so long!

Global warming is something that no one can definitively say is happening or not happening. Even the most learned scientists whose job it is to study this topic full-time can agree on the aspects surrounding it.

The truth is that the weather patterns and water levels around the world flutuate all the time. For every city or region that one can prove there is warming trends, you can find another that has actually cooled. The same goes for water levels... During our recorded history of temperature tracking, we have experienced many ups and downs regarding the average temperature of regions in the world. In the US, the average temperature today is less than 1.2 degrees warmer than it was almost 150 years ago...and actually almost a full degree cooler than it was 50 years ago. All in all, however, we are talking about the difference of a couple degrees....not the type of run for cover global warming that we get spoonfed on the nightly news, huh? But sure, there are regions that have experienced quite an increase in temperature...and what do you know, they are the areas with the largest populations growths! Wow, you mean more people = higher average temperatures?! Yes, they do.

Certainly we have to be conscious of damaging our planet...it is our home. However, the planet will adapt in it's own ways to protect itslef from our abuse. It is a living, breathing thing as well, and is much more well adapted to dealing with us, than we are with it.

This arguement will go on forever...and even when it cools down again in it's natural cycle...we will argue about what we are doing to contribute to the Global Cooling and we are leading ourselves into another Ice Age (another natural cycle in the Earth's life). If you are interested in reading an educated and well researched cynic's thoughts...read Michael Crichton's State of Fear. Even if you just want to hear some theories from someone who has done a lot more research on the matter than any of us. In addition, there are loads of resources in the bibliography you can check out at your local library...it gets pretty interesting.

Sorry this turned out to be so long!

Sorry this turned out to be so long!
Congrats on your first post, mine was spam, much like my other ones, and this one too probably.

Anyhow, the thing is we don't really know much about global tempertatures from the past. You source cites up to 150 years ago, but I've read sources that cite 1960 as "normal" time. So there is obiously confusion within the scientific community about the validity of sources. But sense we know it was hot when the dinosaurs were around, and then it becane an Ice Age, I think global tempurature change can occur without man's help, and sometimes not even a giant space-rock. Albiet, the "scientific confusion" I speak is entirely centralized in the United States of America....:rolleyes:

Global warming is something that no one can definitively say is happening or not happening.

incorrect. there is a remarkable scientific consensus on the fact that it is.


In the US, the average temperature today is...actually almost a full degree cooler than it was 50 years ago.

that's just false


If you are interested in reading an educated and well researched cynic's thoughts...read Michael Crichton's State of Fear. Even if you just want to hear some theories from someone who has done a lot more research on the matter than any of us. In addition, there are loads of resources in the bibliography you can check out at your local library...it gets pretty interesting.

of course, what crichton doesn't tell you is that the global warming deniers haven't published anything relevant in a peer-reviewed science journal in over a decade. they have no case. they aren't engaged in science, but in public relations. but then again, michael crichton also believes in the ability to bend spoons (http://www.crichton-official.com/travels/travels_books.shtml) through the power of your mind. though i'm sure he holds that position for sound scientific reasons...

I found this when I was looking for your source. Unrelated but funny anyway.

"Prior to joining President Bush's Council on Environmental Quality, Cooney was an oil industry lobbyist. On Tuesday, Exxon Mobil announced it had hired Cooney for as-yet-unspecified duties.

Environmentalists attacked Cooney after documents were published showing his alterations overruled language supplied by government scientists and downplayed a link between human activity and global warming."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/06/15/politics/main702084.shtml

Interesting. I wonder how come the "published alterations document" isn't avaliable to support the allegations?...Oh wait I see...this is CBS!

Is global warming genuine?
Is it caused by human action or is it a natural climatic cycle?
Please cite your proof either way.
Personally, I think it is genuine, and that BOTH nature AND humans are the cause. :)

I haven't figured out how to "box" the quotes out yet, this is a different format for me...so please forgive the crude presentations that are sure to come in the future.

The problem with this topic, is there is massive amounts of data out there, all of which can be skewed to mean several different things depending on what type of argument you want to present. From types of instruments used, to conditions when readings were made, to who made them and what their opinions/motives were when they were taking them (by motives, of course, I mean who was paying them to conduct the study).

And Soviet...for being one to quote sources and reliable publications...if "That's just false" works as a counter-point...then "No it's not."

And Soviet...for being one to quote sources and reliable publications...if "That's just false" works as a counter-point...then "No it's not."

fair enough. how about the ipcc report (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/056.htm):



http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/images/fig2-7.gif

...oh, and of course Michael Crichton uses a lot of sources to favor his stories. I understand that, he writes Fiction....but that does not mean that I do:

United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) can provide you with as many temp charts as you would like to peruse from as far back as 1826.

giss.nasa.gov will give you a worldwide view dating back to as far as 1700's in many cases.

I do believe these are fairly respected scientific communities, and they tend to show the same as I had suggested my opinion to be: that we certainly have a warming trend currently, but that in a large picture scenario...we are not experiencing an abnormal warming pattern. In addition...the trends indicate that the areas with significant population increases, make up the regions with any significant temperature variances.

Regardless of anyone's opinion on this matter...it is nice to find a spot where interesting people talk about interesting things...so thanks.

Free Soviets,

Thanks for getting my sense of humor the right way...I never mean to come off the wrong way. Thanks for the link...although when I bring it up what you specifically copied, it is hard to make out. It does show an increase on a global scale, but I 1) cannot make out the far left...is it in Celsius (I would assume that it is)...I doubt they would go to that type of trouble for a F graph showing less than a degree variance. But 2) the thing that I can't make out...is that it shows this graph, but only in relative to 1961-1990 according to the legend...

The Max Planck instutute for meteorology did a year long study on climate change. They let Europe's most powerful weather computers calculate their climate model for a year to discover what we're in for. The most likely outcome is a 30 to 40 cm increase in ocean level, total melting of the ice caps during Summer, and a shift of climate zones. This model has proven accurate when comparing predicted results of the past centuries with what actually happened. It also showed that the Earth's temperature was increasing faster than in the past millions of years.
The results of this study confirm my belief that, while global warming is to some degree cyclic, human influence is speeding that cycle beyond anything this planet has witnessed.

Well, at least we're stopping the onset of another Ice Age. I hate the cold. Break out the tequilla and bikinis, the world's going to be a beach! :cool:

Well, at least we're stopping the onset of another Ice Age. I hate the cold. Break out the tequilla and bikinis, the world's going to be a beach! :cool:I'm almost looking forward to having a beach next to my University. But sadly, that means that I'd have to go scuba diving to see my grandparents.

how about the ipcc report (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/056.htm):

Thanks for the link Free Soviets :)

I'll admit that the reason for my starting this thread was the fact that I just finished State of Fear and realized that I had, up to that point never seen any concrete info for or against (never took the effort to look either), and was curious to see how many people assumed that global warming was real because they saw stuff on the TV news about it.

Well, at least we're stopping the onset of another Ice Age. I hate the cold. Break out the tequilla and bikinis, the world's going to be a beach! :cool:

Some people have all the luck. Us over here in western Europe will get colder as the Earth warms up due interruption of the Golf stream that keeps us nice and warm compared to Canada (same latitude).

Some people have all the luck. Us over here in western Europe will get colder as the Earth warms up due interruption of the Golf stream that keeps us nice and warm compared to Canada (same latitude).
I hope that the global climate change doesn't effect Finland while I'm over here then, I'm not as lucky as you think! :p And I'll have to scuba to visit my family also, but, hey, new hobby.

I hope that the global climate change doesn't effect Finland while I'm over here then, I'm not as lucky as you think! :p And I'll have to scuba to visit my family also, but, hey, new hobby.
That's it, find the silver lining ;)

I hope that the global climate change doesn't effect Finland while I'm over here then, I'm not as lucky as you think! :p And I'll have to scuba to visit my family also, but, hey, new hobby.
Don't worry, the Baltic was supposed to rise higher than average, I think ;)

...
If you are interested in reading an educated and well researched cynic's thoughts...read Michael Crichton's State of Fear. Even if you just want to hear some theories from someone who has done a lot more research on the matter than any of us. In addition, there are loads of resources in the bibliography you can check out at your local library...it gets pretty interesting.

If you think that Crichton's book is educated and well researched, you should probably check those two link:

Micheal Crichton's State of Confussion (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=74)

Micheal Crichton's State of Confussion II: Return of the Science (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=76)

This has already been mentioned, but nobody really bothered to comment on it, so I'm going to bring it up again...

At the very least, the "global warming is happening" group has some sort of logical/statistical/scientific evidence of their position, whereas the "global warming is a lie" group has based their arguments on the accusation of fear-mongering and the idea that if it were really caused by CO2 and other such gases it would be bad for business, so of course it can't really be happening.

Just thought it would be worth bringing up again.

Sincerely,

Number III

Some people have all the luck. Us over here in western Europe will get colder as the Earth warms up due interruption of the Golf stream that keeps us nice and warm compared to Canada (same latitude).

Trust me (I'm Canadian): Global warming is really a strategy fabricated by Canadian imperialists to conquer the world! GWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!

Sincerely,

Number III

global warming exists
but it should really be called global climate change

this means that the weather will change but also shows that it won't just get warmer

for example britain if it gets much more warmer will get colder, this will be due to the fact the gulf stream could switch off due to the ice caps melting

this would result in britain getting cold, very cold (greenland type cold)

Global warming? one of my favourite subjects.

There is an observed cycle of warming and cooling of the planet. we are coming up to one now. people say that it is happening faster this time around. the previous times it happened it happened in under 200 years. this one has already been brewing for more than 100 years.

think. Mt St Helens churned out MILLIONS of tonnes of Sulphur Dioxide when it erupted. in fact all volcanoes churn out millions of tonnes of this gas per year.

Sulphur Dioxide is, i believe, something like 10 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than Carbon Dioxide.

This 'we are ruining the planet' is scaremongering. it is another symptom of humanities total arrogance. we have been on this planet for the blink of an eye. Dinosaur farts had more effect on greehouse gas levels than we have had.

Whilst climate change is indeed occuring we are not to blame. we want to blame ourselves for a feeling of racial superiority.

Mt St Helens churned out MILLIONS of tonnes of Sulphur Dioxide when it erupted. in fact all volcanoes churn out millions of tonnes of this gas per year.

Sulphur Dioxide is, i believe, something like 10 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than Carbon Dioxide.

actually, volcanic SO2 is a rather efficient cooling factor - when SO2 is injected high into the atmosphere it combines with water vapor to form a haze and can be responsible for significant short-term cooling if the eruption is big enough.

and humans put out approximately 4 times as much SO2 per year as volcanos, but volcanic emissions are more efficient at causing cooling because eruptions put it at higher altitudes than human emissions. see the relevant section of the ipcc report (http://www.pnl.gov/aisu/pubs/eemw/papers/ipccreports/workinggroup1/175.htm).

actually, volcanic SO2 is a rather efficient cooling factor - when SO2 is injected high into the atmosphere it combines with water vapor to form a haze and can be responsible for significant short-term cooling if the eruption is big enough.

and humans put out approximately 4 times as much SO2 per year as volcanos, but volcanic emissions are more efficient at causing cooling because eruptions put it at higher altitudes than human emissions. see the relevant section of the ipcc report (http://www.pnl.gov/aisu/pubs/eemw/papers/ipccreports/workinggroup1/175.htm).

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=452079&page=2&highlight=global+warming

plenty of links by me on the last page, and I show where the money is coming from on a site another poster submitted as evidence against Global Climate Change.

Predictably, the thread goes dead at that point...

Interesting. I wonder how come the "published alterations document" isn't avaliable to support the allegations?...Oh wait I see...this is CBS!
You're a freak...
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Philip_A._Cooney
http://thinkprogress.org/2005/06/14/exxon-mobil-hires-ex-official-who-doctored-global-warming-documents/
http://archive.salon.com/politics/war_room/2005/06/13/cooney/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4075986.stm
http://www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/2869/1/249?TopicID=1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Cooney
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8137646/
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1656017,00.html

You're a freak...
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Philip_A._Cooney
http://thinkprogress.org/2005/06/14/exxon-mobil-hires-ex-official-who-doctored-global-warming-documents/
http://archive.salon.com/politics/war_room/2005/06/13/cooney/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4075986.stm
http://www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/2869/1/249?TopicID=1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Cooney
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8137646/
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1656017,00.html

Any questions?

Some people have all the luck. Us over here in western Europe will get colder as the Earth warms up due interruption of the Golf stream that keeps us nice and warm compared to Canada (same latitude).

London, as I understand it, is on about the same latitude as Vladivostok.

Any questions?

I have one: in the thread you linked to you were making repeated requests for anyone who was doubtful of global warming to post their arguments. Now that several people have done so in this thread, do you intend to actually answer them, or just continue to hand out reading material?

I have one: in the thread you linked to you were making repeated requests for anyone who was doubtful of global warming to post their arguments. Now that several people have done so in this thread, do you intend to actually answer them, or just continue to hand out reading material?

No, I asked for supported arguments, not unsupported, contradictory to current scientific knowledge assertions.

People are generally saying:

Previous stuff (like volcanoes, cow farts, magical pink unicorns,) also contributes to global warming(greenhouse effect,) so people aren't having an effect.


The thing is that weather patterns and cycles are all caused by attributable phenomena that science generally already knows about. Solar cycles. Ocean currents. Volcanic activity. Wildfires. Cosmic Radiation. Exposed rock at fault lines sucking up CO2. Deforestation. Albedo shifts. Distance from the sun. Earth's magnetic aura. Smoke from bongs. The methane and CO2 emitted by animals.

Global weather patterns are shifting in ways that, even with known contributors already factored in, point to anthropogenic forcing.

Or:
It's too early to tell!

Only in the way that it's too early to tell if you're going to hit a wheelchair-bound kid with your speeding car. Sure, he might get out of the way. Sure you might be able to swerve and miss him...but isn't it kinda smart to apply the brakes just a litte?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager

Global Warming is a Pascal's Wager.

If global warming is real and we do something about it, then Hooray we saved the Earth.
If global warming is not real and we do something about it, then we spent some bucks, but have probably improved the environment in some other way. So minor hooray.
If global warming is not real and we don't do anything about it, nothing and nothing still equals nothing.
BUT if global warming is real and we don't do anything about it then DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION..... ARGHHHHH!!
Seriously, that bad is so bad, that I wouldn't think we'd want to see what it is like. Therefore doing something about it and maybe saving the Earth is what should be done, whether it is real or not, doesn't really matter because that no action is so bad.

My personal opinion on this is that what info I have personally inspected (and understood) seems rather suspect, I have seen on both sides of the argument conclusions which don't appear to be supported by the accompanying (sp?) data.

None of this changes the fact that we should make an effort to reduce pollution, since even if we aren't causing/contributing to global warming a reduction of pollutants is a good idea.


Global Warming is a Pascal's Wager.

If global warming is real and we do something about it, then Hooray we saved the Earth.
If global warming is not real and we do something about it, then we spent some bucks, but have probably improved the environment in some other way. So minor hooray.
If global warming is not real and we don't do anything about it, nothing and nothing still equals nothing.
BUT if global warming is real and we don't do anything about it then DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION..... ARGHHHHH!!
Seriously, that bad is so bad, that I wouldn't think we'd want to see what it is like. Therefore doing something about it and maybe saving the Earth is what should be done, whether it is real or not, doesn't really matter because that no action is so bad.
As he points out it can't hurt

BUT if global warming is real and we don't do anything about it then DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION..... ARGHHHHH!!
But is global warming a bad fenomenon? I mean, 1000 years ago, back when Greenland was green, the temepratures were a few degrees higher than today, and yet no disasters happened and the Gulf Stream didn't stop flowing. That period was even called the Medieval Climatic Optimum or something like that, until all this talk about global warming began and its name was changed.

But is global warming a bad fenomenon? I mean, 1000 years ago, back when Greenland was green, the temepratures were a few degrees higher than today, and yet no disasters happened and the Gulf Stream didn't stop flowing. That period was even called the Medieval Climatic Optimum or something like that, until all this talk about global warming began and its name was changed.

Not as many people were living on the coast then, and no one who kept weather records lived on the Gulf Coast. Therefore far less wearther-based tragedy has come down to us.

no one who kept weather records lived on the Gulf Coast. Therefore far less wearther-based tragedy has come down to us.
Actually, this only prooves nobody recorded anything, not that there were tragedies or not. In the end, the climate change's effects are not known. There will certainly be positive effects (that's why that period was called the Medieval Climate Optimum) and there will also be some negative ones, but nobody can say for sure if the overall trend will be positive or negative. All I can say for now is that maybe more people will die because of the hurricanes in the Carribean and fewer people will die of frostbite in Siberia.

As he points out it can't hurt
It can hurt the economy. You may ask yourself if the money spent changing to a 'greener' economy couldn't be spent in a more usefull way... by helping the developing nations, for example.