NationStates Jolt Archive

This is a blog I found out of Iraq. This Iraqi says alot of how his country is doing. I know this is from March of this year. But in my eyes this is a promising sign. So what in your opinions will Iraq look like in 20 years?


http://democracyiniraq.blogspot.com/2005/03/2-years.html

Not Found

The requested URL was not found on this server. Please visit the Blogger homepage or the Blogger Knowledge Base for further assistance.

See? :(

See? :(

It works for me. Try the link again.

Works for me. Awesome perspective, very insightful!

Thanks for posting it.

Although I don't really think that the existence of "hope" is enough justification to say that the war was okay, it's nice to hear from someone there for a change.
And the way it was handled remains a disgrace in either way.

I'm not one of those who advocate the US leaving Iraq, for a number of reasons, the most pressing of which is that civil war would follow, and that doesn't serve anyone's purpose.

But as for your question, the debate about the constitution and federalism, the tension between ethnic groups (it would be good to know what group Husayn belongs to), and the unequal distribution of oil and other resources in the country lead me to only one conclusion:

In 20 years, there won't be an Iraq.
There'll be Kurdistan, which may or may not have been destroyed by Turkey.
There will be the Shia region, and whether that joins Iran depends on how Iranian politics develop.
And there'll be "Iraq", the Sunni areas with next to no oil, lots of Islamism and a good portion of "The Americans destroyed our country!". Make of that what you will.

In 20 years, there won't be an Iraq.
There'll be Kurdistan, which may or may not have been destroyed by Turkey.
There will be the Shia region, and whether that joins Iran depends on how Iranian politics develop.
And there'll be "Iraq", the Sunni areas with next to no oil, lots of Islamism and a good portion of "The Americans destroyed our country!". Make of that what you will.


Do you seriously think the US would let the country dissolve? I would doubt it. But time will tell. I think in my opinion there prosperity will sway the region over to democracy myself. I know it looks like a huge mistake if you read the westren papers. But If these people have hope I think thats the biggest factor. If they loose hope, then is when I will concede that the union will fail.

But If these people have hope I think thats the biggest factor. If they loose hope, then is when I will concede that the union will fail.
Always gotta be careful though: He is only one guy. I'm pretty sure there are plenty of people in Iraq who lost their hope, perhaps because they lost family etc.
It would be great if there were any reliable opinion polls...but the place being a war zone, I guess no one wants to do them.

I have hope I won't die of a gunshot wound, that doesn't mean I'm ok with you shooting at me...

Always gotta be careful though: He is only one guy.
It would be great if there were any reliable opinion polls...but the place being a war zone, I guess no one wants to do them.


Here is an article about opinion polls i found searching. Maybe this will shed some light. A bit long though.

http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=1466

Not Found

The requested URL was not found on this server. Please visit the Blogger homepage or the Blogger Knowledge Base for further assistance.
See? :(
It is obviously showing the common belief that Iraq will have dissapeared in 20 years from now. No one will be able to find it, though we will agree that it probably exists somewhere that we aren't looking right now.

Maybe this will shed some light. A bit long though.
Awesome! This is debating-gold :D

Whoa.

Remember, it's only one oppnion (OPPNION) out of how many millions of Iraqi's?
I know an Iraqi who says what's going on now, and the future of Iraq is just total BS. And I'm inclined to agree.

Of course, none of us can predict the future, so none of us can really say or argue anything effectivly about the future of Iraq because they're shoulder deep in the crap that's been piled into the area. Just watch and wait for them to clean some of the mess up before anyone can predict how Iraq wll turn out.

Of course we could just nuke the whole area... or better yet, nuke the world. We'd solve all of lifes problems that way.

Ha. The Iraqis I'm around are glad the US is in Iraq.
Then again, go ahead and say that they don't really represent Iraqis. After all, I'm only on a base that only has 25,000 Iraqis on it, compared with 85 Americans.

Ha. The Iraqis I'm around are glad the US is in Iraq.
Then again, go ahead and say that they don't really represent Iraqis. After all, I'm only on a base that only has 25,000 Iraqis on it, compared with 85 Americans.


Well I think its very difficult for people to understand what is really going on. The westren media tends to slant towards a negative view. However in my home we watch ALOT of Arabic tv programming. They are actually debating the pros and cons on a regular basis. In my opinion I believe that alot of Muslim/Arabic peoples are hoping for a good outcome. They know in there hearts that if it works out in Iraq they can hope for a change in the country they are in.

Well I think its very difficult for people to understand what is really going on. The westren media tends to slant towards a negative view. However in my home we watch ALOT of Arabic tv programming. They are actually debating the pros and cons on a regular basis. In my opinion I believe that alot of Muslim/Arabic peoples are hoping for a good outcome. They know in there hearts that if it works out in Iraq they can hope for a change in the country they are in.

That was the feeling I was getting when my dad got back from Iraq. The people want a good outcome and I will bet that they will have a good outcome and Iraq will be a shining light.

That was the feeling I was getting when my dad got back from Iraq. The people want a good outcome and I will bet that they will have a good outcome and Iraq will be a shining light.

If you dont mind me asking. What is it your dad did over there? US military? If so what branch?

If you dont mind me asking. What is it your dad did over there? US military? If so what branch?

US Military yes. United States Air Force Reserve.

He flew supplies and people into Baghdad.

US Military yes. United States Air Force Reserve.

He flew supplies and people into Baghdad.

Ahh good. Was in the army myself. Not this GW though.

Ahh good. Was in the army myself. Not this GW though.

My Dad was in the 1st one as well.

Anyway, I'm glad we are back in Iraq and I am glad that the people have hope. This mission will succeed.

God Bless our troops serving overseas.

Just found this little bit out of Morocco. 150k protest against the Jihadist in Iraq. Apparently they killed two Moroccan citizens. Regular Muslims are upset as you can imagine. But this is another story you will not read in the front page of westren papers.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/196D6094-57D6-4C6F-89A8-AB10546BA548.htm

Just found this little bit out of Morocco. 150k protest against the Jihadist in Iraq. Apparently they killed two Moroccan citizens. Regular Muslims are upset as you can imagine. But this is another story you will not read in the front page of westren papers.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/196D6094-57D6-4C6F-89A8-AB10546BA548.htm

Well well well..

Now this is indeed interesting. Looks like opinion is turning AGAINST the insurgents/terrorists/rebels.

Looks like opinion is turning AGAINST the insurgents/terrorists/rebels.
You sound surprised...?

I want to see the person who enjoys being blown up - regardless of who does it. Ultimately most Iraqis don't have a problem with the occupation because of some moral issues, but because it was done so badly - "bomb the shit out of the place, the rest will sort itself out".
Of course people get angry when there is no security to protect their homes, businesses and families - but that doesn't mean they switch allegiances.

Well I think its very difficult for people to understand what is really going on. The westren media tends to slant towards a negative view. However in my home we watch ALOT of Arabic tv programming. They are actually debating the pros and cons on a regular basis. In my opinion I believe that alot of Muslim/Arabic peoples are hoping for a good outcome. They know in there hearts that if it works out in Iraq they can hope for a change in the country they are in.
I would agree. Cause that seems to be the case around here. Except that a lot of the Iraqis around here seem to be having some trouble comprehending why anyone would hate Bush who they see as a hero.
It probably has something to do with their culture or history or something.

This just goes to show how wrong Bush's critiques are in regards to the middle east.
They said democracy would not take hold in Iraq. But the fact is that it has. Only becuase of the actions that Bush has taken.
I read a lot of history and I have to dispute the liberal claims that the middle east has always been a land of war and dictatorships. The fact is that about 4 millenia ago, the middle east was peaceful and the people there were governed by democratic governments. This only changed in the 1 millenium BC when the king of Uruk ousted his own city state's elected assembly and started conquering the neighboring city states. He became the middle east's first despot. But before him, the middle east was governed by a long line of democratic governments. The people elected councils who made laws on their behalf. And for a long time, even the kings of the city states, had to legitimize their own rule through an election by all the adult members of the city state.
See, the middle east was originally a democratic society. And after several millenia, democracy is returning to region at last.
If you look at the ancient history of almost every place on earth, you will find that those places were initially governed by some form of democratic government. History and anthropology have proven Bush's assertion that Democracy is a universal human value that all human populations strive for.
I am currently reading a book about the history of India and it states that in the very beginning, the kings of the various Indian states could not rule unless they were elected by their respective peoples. Even Harrapa and Mohenjo-Daro were ruled after this fashion. And the Kings had to listen to elected councils or assemblies that were chosen by the people.

But the actual history of the middle east is often neglected by all the naysayers who hope that Iraq will collapse or that Iraq has always been a dictatorship. Fact is that they are wrong on both counts.

http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/

An alternative view on Iraq...from a young girl's perspective.

Here is an article about opinion polls i found searching. Maybe this will shed some light. A bit long though.

http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=1466


Oh yes. An opinion poll by a group the name "Iraqi Center for Development and International Dialogue" that does not clearly show

a) who conducted the polling
b) how the polling was conducted
c) accuracy statements.

What DO you find? It's leader and spokesperson is named Mehdi Hafedh.

Now where do I remember that name from?

Oh yes! This is also the name of the US-installed Iraqi Minister of Planning and Development Cooperation and head of the Iraqi Strategic Review Board (http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=112409) back in the old CPA days!

Now that's just a coincidence right?

What are the odds that a good friend of the current administration would end up still running a well-funded political entity in Iraq and would be spewing rosy numbers just before an election? Are we so forgetfull that we all fogot the incident after the elections last year where a falsely inflated turnout number was given by a minister of the CPA to boost the prevailing viewpoint that it was a huge success, only to have the real numbers come in over 10% lower a few days later?


And how accurate do his numbers look? I mean - if we're gonna trust his poll?

He projected 88% voter turnout for the October Referendum
the actual number? 63% (http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7E5F90A5-81F1-4F9B-95C3-884E0E4CB81C.htm)



Oh yeah! This is a poll to believe in!!!


Or to wipe your ass with.


I'm going with the latter....

snip
....

So who would you trust a poll from? The UN? Iran? Al Jazeera? Saddam loyalist? Who....?

So who would you trust a poll from? The UN? Iran? Al Jazeera? Saddam loyalist? Who....?
He makes a good point though...I didn't check, but if what he says is right, then the guy who did the poll had a vested interest in its results. Would you trust the Democratic Party Leadership to conduct a poll on how opinions are in the US?

You don't have to go to extremes and ask Saddamites, but Al-Jazeera for example would be nice. They've so far been fairly neutral, and at any rate they should reflect the opinions of the Iraqis, who as Whittier put it "all see Bush as a hero"...

He makes a good point though...I didn't check, but if what he says is right, then the guy who did the poll had a vested interest in its results. Would you trust the Democratic Party Leadership to conduct a poll on how opinions are in the US?

You don't have to go to extremes and ask Saddamites, but Al-Jazeera for example would be nice. They've so far been fairly neutral, and at any rate they should reflect the opinions of the Iraqis, who as Whittier put it "all see Bush as a hero"...

Well I do see his and your points. But then who would be an absolute neutral party? AlJazeera clearly wouldnt be in my eyes. They say and post things different in Arabic at times than on there English site. Really other than a poll conducted by ones self could someone really get an unbiased opinion.

Wonders if it would hurt to mention that half the Iraqis here were members of Saddam's army before they joined the new one.

Their are various media outlets in Iraq. Not just Al Jazeera. I've counted about 50 so far. But that was because I got tired of counting channels and trying to find english ones. Plenty of russian channels though. And a couple in German. I did find one British sports channel but I'm not much for watching sports though.
Ironically, for every sports channel they have, they have like 10 porn channels. So much for Iraqis being such highly moral people we are supposed to think they are.

So who would you trust a poll from? The UN? Iran? Al Jazeera? Saddam loyalist? Who....?


Frankly, I'm not sure that a fair poll could be done in Iraq right now. Going door to door across a suitale cross-section of the country would require armed escort. and showing up at someone's door with a bunch of guys holding weapons and you get the answers people think YOU want.

Phone polling?

The phone networks are still in horrid shape except for the mobile phone industry, and so you can at best try and get a cross-section of Iraqis above a certain income level as the poorer famillies in outlying areas are not likely to have such a service.

Now, if you have studied statistics at all you come to realize that proper polling is one side of the coin. Writing proper questions is the other. this is why reputable sources state the exact questions asked and show per-question responses and how they correlate.

So when I read the statement from those results in the article to the effect that : "84 percent expressed their support for women's rights", I have to ask what the hell that means?

I know what most North Americans or Europeans would take that to mean, but what does it mean in Iraq? And how does that contradict the degradation of womens rights in the new draft Constitution as compared to the laws on the books during Saddam's reign?

So I ask myself, what was the question?

Was the question "Do you support women's rights for freedom of dress, employment, education, and the ability to divorce their husband and keep the kids?"

Or was it "Do you support legislation giving women the full rights as defined by almighty Allah in the Quran as interpreted by your village's crusty old zealot?"

Somehow I think that answers to these two questions mean very different things, but both could then be touted as support for women's rights.

So what the hell does that number really mean for the women of Iraq?



Look. I'm not saying that it IS a bogus poll. I'm just saying that one number in it was proven completely wrong (voter turnout was off by 25%!), that the group who sponsored it seems likely to have ties to the CPA and hence the administration (sorry, but who else would get access to a major US newspaper and be able to show credentials to be taken seriously unless those credentials were issued from Washington or London), and that neccessary statements about the methodology used for this poll that are needed for us to evaluate possible built-in bias are completely missing.


So I take it with a grain of salt.

A big grain.


Something in the "can't throw it very far" category.