NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzside4460047oct08,0,7027154.story?coll=ny-business-headlines
Despite Katrina ripping the Gulf Coast apart, only 35,000 jobs were lost. This either means a.) the Labor Department needs to fire its statisticians, or b.) Gulf Coast refuggees were absorbed quickly into their new homes. I heard economists say that at least 400,000 jobs would be lost.
Keep in mind that this is only one month after Katrina. Usually, hurricanes are a net benefit to the economy, creating more jobs and demand for building supplies as reconstruction begins. New Orleans is heavily damaged, both by wind and by having a month's worth of filthy water. Imagine the reconstruction needed for that.

Or it means that enough jobs were created in other sectors to make up for the job losses from Katrina, or most likely, the Katrina statistics aren't in yet because of the massive nature of the damage.

Or they could be fudging the numbers again--it wouldn't be the first time.

My point is that there are any number of reasons that the job number could be what it is being reported as right now.

Or it means that enough jobs were created in other sectors to make up for the job losses from Katrina, or most likely, the Katrina statistics aren't in yet because of the massive nature of the damage.

Or they could be fudging the numbers again--it wouldn't be the first time.

My point is that there are any number of reasons that the job number could be what it is being reported as right now.
That's true. However, I'm inclined to believe that the impact was not as bad because of the recent momentum in the labor market. It's very tight for employers to hire right now. Any increase in the pool of unemployed will be snatched quickly by eager employers. It's a seller's market in the job market.

bump

They lie.

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzside4460047oct08,0,7027154.story?coll=ny-business-headlines
Despite Katrina ripping the Gulf Coast apart, only 35,000 jobs were lost. This either means a.) the Labor Department needs to fire its statisticians, or b.) Gulf Coast refuggees were absorbed quickly into their new homes. or c.) that many of the people who were impacted by Katrina were unemployed anyway, or d.) they haven't yet begun the process of looking for a new job.

There were also considerable upward revisions in the July/Aug numbers; this leads me to believe that a strong September payroll number offset much of the Katrina losses. Dont forget that there were 32,000 temporary help jobs created by the DOL, along with 10,000+ in cleanup crews during the first few weeks.

Plus, workers for many major corporations did not lose their jobs, and still recieved pay while they wern't working. Overall, I think that this report makes sense, and points to strong growth outside of the affected areas.

It's interesting how pessimistic we are tonight.

It's interesting how pessimistic we are tonight.

Actually, looking deeper in to the report shows that it was an overall good month for hiring, especially in IT and Professional/Technical services. There was also an encouragingly strong amount of growth in several manufacturing sectors as well.

Actually, looking deeper in to the report shows that it was an overall good month for hiring, especially in IT and Professional/Technical services. There was also an encouragingly strong amount of growth in several manufacturing sectors as well.
I know. I find it a bit hard to be pessimistic myself. I have my ideas why some people are, but it's best not to voice them. If I do, the conversation turns pointless.

I know. I find it a bit hard to be pessimistic myself. I have my ideas why some people are, but it's best not to voice them. If I do, the conversation turns pointless.

Much like some people point to a single indicator as proof of a point of view they already hold. It cuts all ways.

Much like some people point to a single indicator as proof of a point of view they already hold. It cuts all ways.
Your point?

Government issued statistics are full of shit, do you really believe that, another bogus statistic said that the crime rate was going down, and another said the number of teens becoming pregnant was falling. Where in the hell do you get someone to believe that...wait...*people who still support the war in Iraq is the war on terror* :rolleyes: probably them.

Government issued statistics are full of shit, do you really believe that, another bogus statistic said that the crime rate was going down, and another said the number of teens becoming pregnant was falling. Where in the hell do you get someone to believe that...wait...*people who still support the war in Iraq is the war on terror* :rolleyes: probably them.
Gotta love your enthusiasm.

Ok, one thing missing from this debate. Now most of the employees that were displaced are still on there employers job rolls. Because of the timing of when the data was taken vs the disaster. The employers did not have enough time to report the layoffs, terminations. So check the next report to see the full impact. Another thing to realise that the area affected had higher than average unemployment. Just something to think about. The government reports I dont think intend to lie. They are right on alot of the times. If they are not then its due to human error. Also reports are reports they can be interpeted many ways and dont always take into account every bit of information.

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzside4460047oct08,0,7027154.story?coll=ny-business-headlines
Despite Katrina ripping the Gulf Coast apart, only 35,000 jobs were lost. This either means a.) the Labor Department needs to fire its statisticians, or b.) Gulf Coast refuggees were absorbed quickly into their new homes. I heard economists say that at least 400,000 jobs would be lost.
Keep in mind that this is only one month after Katrina. Usually, hurricanes are a net benefit to the economy, creating more jobs and demand for building supplies as reconstruction begins. New Orleans is heavily damaged, both by wind and by having a month's worth of filthy water. Imagine the reconstruction needed for that.
Weren't people also saying there'd be 10 000 dead?
Seems to me the usual over-reacting, reporting the worst-case scenario crap that happens every time there's a disaster.

Ok, one thing missing from this debate. Now most of the employees that were displaced are still on there employers job rolls. Because of the timing of when the data was taken vs the disaster. The employers did not have enough time to report the layoffs, terminations. So check the next report to see the full impact. Another thing to realise that the area affected had higher than average unemployment. Just something to think about. The government reports I dont think intend to lie. They are right on alot of the times. If they are not then its due to human error. Also reports are reports they can be interpeted many ways and dont always take into account every bit of information.
I don't know what the statistical discrepency is in regards to payroll terminations. But I am not too concerned about the unemployment rate already there factoring into this report. You see, I said that 400,000 may be lost because that's about how many jobs were in the New Orleans area in the first place.
And I personally believe that many of those that lost jobs were reabsorbed into a job of some form for two reasons. One, large numbers of people were on the move, and together. 100,000+ reffuggeess moved to Houston alone. Their services are overwhelmed. So, the refuggees would have to compensate.
Secondly, there has been an altruistic outpouring. It may not seem like it'd make a big difference, but perhaps it has. The biggest private employer in the US, Wal-Mart, for example, promised anyone from the Gulf Coast to be hired on the spot if they are looking for a job. Maybe other employers followed their lead.

It has little to do with the actual katrina refugees.

It was EXPECTED that 180K people would lose their jobs in Sept thanks to the hurricanes.

However, as you can see the numbers are much lower...August employment figures were also rounded up.

What this means is that apart from the jobs lost due to the hurricanes, the economy is very strong and made up for a large portion of the hurricane job loss.

Hurricanes are NOT a net benefit to the economy. If the hurricanes did not happen, in all likelihood there would have been a NET GAIN of 150K jobs in Sept.

Hurricanes are NOT a net benefit to the economy. If the hurricanes did not happen, in all likelihood there would have been a NET GAIN of 150K jobs in Sept.

Yes, they are. Not immediately, but in the long run as thousands of new jobs are created in industries related to the rebuilding of the area. The influx of federal aid will also spur growth, and the accelerated consumption of inventories will result in larger rebuilds, boosting GDP. Overall, after the initial damage, we will see a solid amount of benefit from these hurricanes.

Government issued statistics are full of shit, do you really believe that, another bogus statistic said that the crime rate was going down, and another said the number of teens becoming pregnant was falling. Where in the hell do you get someone to believe that...wait...*people who still support the war in Iraq is the war on terror* :rolleyes: probably them.

Well, I guess all of those 22 million jobs created by Clinton are bullshit too, along with all of the economic gains in GDP, productivity, inflation, real earnings, and industrial production as well. Wow, that puts one hell of a dent in his record...or wait, is it only those eeevviilll Republicans who would make these statistics up?