NationStates Jolt Archive

CNN: Romania isolates bird flu village

BUCHAREST, Romania (CNN) -- Romanian officials quarantined a Danube delta village of about 30 people Friday after three dead ducks there tested positive for bird flu -- the first such cases reported in the region.

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/07/birdflu.romania/index.html

If it jumps to humans, it will spread along the international roads and be through the Channel Tunnel in no time. :(

Well isn't that just wonderful...

I live in Romania. Trust me, there's no reason to panic.
At least, not yet.


Good news: no matter what, it will get me first.

Bird Flu honestly doesn't concern me very much.

Yes, I feel apprehension about the global ramifications a pandemic might cause...

...personally, however, I am not worried. Healthy adults in developed nations have next to nothing to fear from this virus.

It's the young, the elderly, the sick, and the malnourished who will be hit and hit hard. :(

If it's on the same scale as the 1918 epidemic, 150mil people could die. That's one in forty.

If it's on the same scale as the 1918 epidemic, 150mil people could die. That's one in forty.

And I'd bet $100 that 140 million of those people will be in China, India, SE Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

It's a frightful example of the problem of global poverty. :(

How deadly is this bird flu??

The 1918 flu virus has been linked to bird flu.

It did kill that many people, but two factors make it different.

The plus?
Is that living conditions and medical care has vastly improved in almost 100 years

The minus?
It is easier to travel both nationally and globally, so the chances of it spreading quicker and easier has 'improved' also.

How deadly is this bird flu??
Not very. H5N1 has been around a couple of years, and I don't think it has killed 100 people yet. Compare that to SARS.

Only thing is, SARS has a 15% kill ratio of those infected, H5N1 has one of 50%. The thing which makes it crap at the moment is, it is crap at infecting people. But it has been around for two years, spreading geographically and gathering genetic material. I don't think it's going to go away now.

CNN: Romania isolates bird flu village

BUCHAREST, Romania (CNN) -- Romanian officials quarantined a Danube delta village of about 30 people Friday after three dead ducks there tested positive for bird flu -- the first such cases reported in the region.

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/07/birdflu.romania/index.html

If it jumps to humans, it will spread along the international roads and be through the Channel Tunnel in no time. :(

Hooray Atlantic Ocean!

Hooray Atlantic Ocean!
*Salutes Canadian geese*

Hooray Atlantic Ocean!
Way to go on the it's ok it's over there attitude.....

*Salutes Canadian geese*
And aeroplanes and shipping and other migratory birds

I heard it was not able to jump to humans, yet.

I live in Romania and I don't think there's any reason to panic.
The virus is only transmitted from birds to humans, not among humans.
Comparing it to the virus that caused the 1918 epidemic is an exxageration.
The birds carrying the virus are migrating from China to the Danube Delta, that's how they got here.
Given what the local media has published so far, it seems that the authorities are in good control of the situation.
There were 3 ducks found ill in a small village near the port city of Tulcea and they were killed and all the people in the vicinty have been vaccined. The surrounding area has been quarantined.
Probably the worse thing that could happen is that the virus might spread among the animals inhabiting the Danube Delta and killing many protected species.
The Danube Delta region is rather isolated and uninhabited(after all, it's like a huge marsh).
There are mostly villages and small sized towns in the Tulcea county and a couple of port cities.
As long as the virus won't reach any industrial sized poultry farm, there's no reason to worry about mass spreading.
If anyone should worry, it's people that hunt birds suspect of having the virus.

it will be worse then the spanish flu of 1918.

in britain and other countries with free healthcare we're looking at 5-10%
in america probably a lot more

and in some countries it could be a huge death toll

we are looking at a death toll of hundreds of millions maybe even a billion.

thats a 6th of the worlds population.

the only country that can effectivly treat its population is switzerland.

france and america produce limited amounts, (america isn't shareing) so most supplies come from france and switzerland.

this means supplys are limited

so in most countries cases not even all essential medical staff are able to be treated.

this means that people will get ill and die and there won't be enough well people to help them.

this will be bad

I heard it was not able to jump to humans, yet.
Apparently you have no idea what you're talking about.

A very nice simple explanation
http://www.mabels.org.uk/bird-flu-virus.htm

American view
http://www.healthpolitics.com/program_transcript.asp?p=bird_flu&bhcp=1

Good up to date report from the scotsman and other links
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=2046982005

Information on pandemic flu
http://www.dh.gov.uk/PolicyAndGuidance/EmergencyPlanning/PandemicFlu/PandemicFluGeneralInformation/fs/en?CONTENT_ID=4111279&chk=wsMQCM

I heard it was not able to jump to humans, yet.

I believe the death toll amongst humans is about 60-100?

However, it is a known fact that it can jump from bird to human, the unknown fact is that whether it has worked out how to jump from human to human yet.

Pantycellen

The information you have given is the correct scenario, should this virus become Pandemic

There is however a difference between knowing the facts of what is happening and those that may happen.
Wide spread panic isn't what is needed, knowing the facts and being aware of them is.

I live in Australia, and Indonesia has already had cases. Given the lousy job our customs folks do, we get Indonesian fisherman landing on our Northern islands. If they bring one infected chicken or duck, we're in trouble.

China to stop using human flu drug on poultry
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7565

China has confirmed reports that Chinese poultry farmers have been using the human anti-flu drug amantadine in poultry, which can cause drug-resistant strains of the virus to develop. It says it will stop the practice.

But the controls will be too late for the “Z” strain of the H5N1 virus that has spread through southeast Asia. That strain, which has so far killed 54 people and which health officials fear might develop into a human pandemic, is already resistant to the drug.

I should make it clear - my point is not that we'll all be dead by next weekend. :rolleyes:

My point is that the virus has left the markets of SE Asia and become endemic in the world's migratory bird populations. It spread all over China a few months ago, then Siberia, Kazakhstan, and now it appears in Eastern Europe. Which means, it's not going away. It may not adapt to human-to-human transmission this year or the next, but it will remain a sword dangling over our heads for a long time to come.

Bird Flu honestly doesn't concern me very much.

Yes, I feel apprehension about the global ramifications a pandemic might cause...

...personally, however, I am not worried. Healthy adults in developed nations have next to nothing to fear from this virus.

It's the young, the elderly, the sick, and the malnourished who will be hit and hit hard. :(
Then it just has to be a CIA plot! :eek:

I don't suppose anyone remembers how we were supposed to tremble in fear over the West Nile virus? I'm hardly going to worry over another virus despite what some alarmists try to claim.

I don't suppose anyone remembers how we were supposed to tremble in fear over the West Nile virus? I'm hardly going to worry over another virus despite what some alarmists try to claim.

The 1918 Spanish flu and the current bird flu are very similar.
1918 Spanish flu killed 50 million, so you can't be complacent.

Bird Flu honestly doesn't concern me very much.

Yes, I feel apprehension about the global ramifications a pandemic might cause...

...personally, however, I am not worried. Healthy adults in developed nations have next to nothing to fear from this virus.

It's the young, the elderly, the sick, and the malnourished who will be hit and hit hard. :(
Ahh, actually the 1918 pandemic killed a lot of healthy fit people. The strength of it was pretty devestating. So don't think cause you're young you'd be able to survive it. That bird 'flu jumped straight from birds to humans, which was thought to be impossible and was the reason it was so bad. Several thousand times stronger than ordinary 'flu.
As for this new 'flu could be even worse. Ordinary 'flu has a death rate something less than 1% but if this bird 'flu ever did cross over, some scientists are warning of a death rate upwards of 50%. That's pretty scary shit.

Of course I think the media is (as usual) totally over-reacting. There's been less than 60 confirmed deaths in 8 years now, and as far as I'm aware, all of them were from direct contact with infected birds. It's good that governments are recognising that it could become a serious threat and starting to mobilise but bad the amount of scare-mongering that's going on in the media over it.

I live in Romania.

Damn, thats tough luck! Was there once for what are among the worst two weeks of my life. So, working on the Great Escape, I guess?


Good news: no matter what, it will get me first.

Yeah, living in Romania will do that to you -- hope for an early grave. ;)

1918 killer flu 'came from birds'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4308872.stm

"Bird Flu" Similar to Deadly 1918 Flu, Gene Study Finds
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/10/1005_051005_bird_flu_2.html

Hooray Atlantic Ocean!
Oceans can't protect us. Ever hear of airlines? They come to every major American city from virtually every nation on earth every day carrying thousands of people. If only a very small percentage of those people arriving are infected we'll see outbreaks all over the country in a few short days.

Then it just has to be a CIA plot! :eek:

Clearly not. The Illuminati! The greys! The Men in Black! The CIA are mere pawns of the greater threat the illuminati pose. Fear the NWO! feeeeeeear!


I should stop playing Deus Ex...


I had heard, I think from the BBC, that when the virus does adapt, it will become "significantly" less fatal to humans... is this true? If so, do we have to worry? the cold infects billions a year, but doesn't make headlines causing hysteria...

All I hear from the experts is "it could infect x many" not "it could kill x many"

I had heard, I think from the BBC, that when the virus does adapt, it will become "significantly" less fatal to humans... is this true? If so, do we have to worry? the cold infects billions a year, but doesn't make headlines causing hysteria...

All I hear from the experts is "it could infect x many" not "it could kill x many"
The local paper said WHO estimates of a death rate of up to 55% and from 5 to 150 million deaths (low number if recognised and treated immediately and the lowest kill rate, high number if left to spread and the highest kill rate).

The local paper said WHO estimates of a death rate of up to 55% and from 5 to 150 million deaths (low number if recognised and treated immediately and the lowest kill rate, high number if left to spread and the highest kill rate).
Well, there's almost six billion of us, so even if 150 million die it won't really make a dent.

<SNIP>
I had heard, I think from the BBC, that when the virus does adapt, it will become "significantly" less fatal to humans... is this true? If so, do we have to worry? the cold infects billions a year, but doesn't make headlines causing hysteria...

All I hear from the experts is "it could infect x many" not "it could kill x many"

Significantly less fatal to humans than what?
If you mean less fatal than it is to the infected birds, then possibly, it has been found that most infected birds die.

Koroka

Before you rest on your laurels too much perhaps you should listen to the news.
CBS reported last night that there had been a flock of chickens destroyed in Delaware.

http://www.healthcentral.com/newsdetail/408/1503576.html

There have also been flocks destroyed from as far back as Feb. 2004

Well, there's almost six billion of us, so even if 150 million die it won't really make a dent.

Unless of course it's your whole family and neighbourhood?

The figure are 'small' compared to world population, the consequences could be catastrophic to many countries or areas.

Unless of course it's your whole family and neighbourhood?

The figure are 'small' compared to world population, the consequences could be catastrophic to many countries or areas.
I'm not very fond of my neighbors, so my neighborhood doesn't really matter to me. My family being wiped out would suck, but I'd get over it. Plus there's the inheritance to cheer me up.

i was reading a bit about the 918-19 epidemic just now

there are several suggested reasons why it was so bad.

the troops returning to every nook and cranny of the western world at the end of ww1 spread the contagion faster than ever before.

there were no good treatments for the flu at the time. the most used drugs were aspirin and opiates (to lower fever and supress coughs)

asprin was a fairly new "miracle drug" whose fever lowering properties were just being discovered. so when one person took aspirin and his fever lowered, he thought he was OK and went back to work, church, school, etc or perhaps even took this new miracle drug to friends and family who didnt have it yet thus spreading the flu even more

most contagious diseases were treated at home. when they could get doctors to go from house to house..... what a great way to spread disease.

aspirin is no longer used to treat colds and the flu because it causes rhys syndrom in younger people--a cause of death in itself. while the syndrome is rare, if everyone is taking aspirin to treat flu symptoms there would be millions of extra cases.

today we understand the spread of contagious disease much better and we have some actual treatments for the flu.

im not particularily worried.

I'm not very fond of my neighbors, so my neighborhood doesn't really matter to me. My family being wiped out would suck, but I'd get over it. Plus there's the inheritance to cheer me up.

And then there's the small problem of the predicted 50% fatality rate with bird flu. Only 50% you know ...

I'm not very fond of my neighbors, so my neighborhood doesn't really matter to me. My family being wiped out would suck, but I'd get over it. Plus there's the inheritance to cheer me up.

Wasn't referring to your personal family or neighbourhood, but it's heart warming to realsie that you are so caring.

Ashmoria

As I said before, there isn't a need to panic, there is a need to be aware of what is going on.

Well, there's almost six billion of us, so even if 150 million die it won't really make a dent.As I said, that's one in 40, which could mean several people you know, even in the Western world. 5 millions deaths would still be a large number, though less damaging.

Wasn't referring to your personal family or neighbourhood, but it's heart warming to realsie that you are so caring.

Ashmoria

As I said before, there isn't a need to panic, there is a need to be aware of what is going on.
exactly

and of course i was only speaking about myself and my own risk. this thing could decimate india and africa. overcrowded conditions, poor nutrition, not much medical care, quite the recipe for epidemic.

I think the thing is that none of us should be complacent and think that it's JUST going to be third world countries or that 'we' aren't going to get and 'we' aren't going to die if we get it.

It's been almost fifty years now since the last 'flu' eppidemic, I would wagrer that a great many posters here haven't even suffered from flu at all (even though they believe that their nasty cold was).

I think the thing is that none of us should be complacent and think that it's JUST going to be third world countries or that 'we' aren't going to get and 'we' aren't going to die if we get it.

It's been almost fifty years now since the last 'flu' eppidemic, I would wagrer that a great many posters here haven't even suffered from flu at all (even though they believe that their nasty cold was).
The National Health Service here in the UK would collapse, no doubt about it.

SARS could be effectively treated by waiting for the patient's immune system to kill the virus, and then, as it ran out of control and killed the patient, crush it with powerful immuno-supressant drugs.

Stuff like that can only be done when there are relatively few people affected. Once the number of sufferers exceeds the surge capacity of hospital facilities, the full kill ratio is felt. Bird Flu has a stunning kill ratio, you don't have to be a starving African to fall victim to it, but is absolutely useless at infecting people. If that property changes, which is far more likely if it becomes permanently established in the environment, then the wealth gap will cease to offer protection.

I think the thing is that none of us should be complacent and think that it's JUST going to be third world countries or that 'we' aren't going to get and 'we' aren't going to die if we get it.

It's been almost fifty years now since the last 'flu' eppidemic, I would wagrer that a great many posters here haven't even suffered from flu at all (even though they believe that their nasty cold was).
im 48 and im pretty sure i have never had the flu. i know many people who claim they had the flu but i think they had a bad cold. i dont think i know anyone who had the flu for real.

mostly i think its utterly out of my hands so its useless for me to worry about it.

which is different from ignoring it.