NationStates Jolt Archive

So whats your opinion on this? It's becomming a fairly well-talked about subject and I'd like to know your opinions on it are.
I personally believe it will happen but something inside me doesn't want to believe it even though I know it's true.
Some people seem to say "it's all a sham to drive oil prices up" or some other reason but it really doesn't make sense to say it that way or it would have a lot more media coverage and most sites and documentaries are not government or large corporate projects.

(if you don't know what peak oil is www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net is a good place to learn about it, although there's a lot of information there so it may take a few hours to get through)

Sooner or later we will quit using oil, and start using some other form of energy. If we stop finding more oil in the ground, then the oil market will start reflecting that oil is a finite resource. Then the oil price will start increasing with the interest rate, and people will start using alternatives when the oil/gas/whatever price becomes higher than the cost of the best possible alternative. This might or might not happen, because maybe some alternative will become cheaper before we stop finding oil. In either case the market handles it just fine and the doomsday scenarios are not relevant.

I have read lots of books on the subject, currently reading Matthew Simmons' Twilight in the Desert, and I work for a service company within the energy industry. I took my engineering career specifically into the energy systems direction, because life promises to be so much fun. :p

I've known about this for years, yeah, we're fucked, but I'm getting myself a ringside seat. :D

I'm glad someone agrees with me Tactical Grace, I personally think we're screwed as well, but of course I don't really like it.
Ah Krakatao the problem in your arguement is that most oil alternatives require oil to be made or cost more energy to create than they give out or of course they cannot be scaled up to a global level.

Sooner or later we will quit using oil, and start using some other form of energy. If we stop finding more oil in the ground, then the oil market will start reflecting that oil is a finite resource. Then the oil price will start increasing with the interest rate, and people will start using alternatives when the oil/gas/whatever price becomes higher than the cost of the best possible alternative. This might or might not happen, because maybe some alternative will become cheaper before we stop finding oil. In either case the market handles it just fine and the doomsday scenarios are not relevant.

Cornucopian. :D

You can't just stop using oil. Industries that have been built around the fact that oil makes the world go around will need to retool. And these people will want to get their return on their investment in the current infrastructure before doing so, and will only dump it when it costs them a LOT of money.

And then, when you want to retool, the process takes YEARS. Not weeks. Not months. You read right - years.

What if the US economy crashes (which is highly likely) when production declines? Good luck trying to raise up the money necessary to make a smooth transition.

There will be a transition, yes. But will it be smooth? Unfortunately it probably won't.

What I'm most frustrated about is the fact that I didn't see this before. :headbang:

Of course, I'm 20 and am going to be seriously fracked over by this, but at least I'm used to not driving. :D

Some of the doomsday scenarios are a bit overblown. We're not going to be booted back to the Dark Ages. That is unless we get a new Little Ice Age or something like that. Unfortunately, that's a very real possibility - Watch The Day After Tomorrow for the reason why. Most of the science stays intact there (although, obviously it's stylised a bit - and wouldn't happen that quickly).

It's hard to say how badly we are hit, I mean oil is used in transportation or production or sometimes basic manufacture of a lot of everday goods such as cars, computers, food, clothes and plastics to name a few, a lot of people will probably die as a result and in a more pessimistic point of view we could actually be knocked back in levels of civilisation.

It's hard to say how badly we are hit, I mean oil is used in transportation or production or sometimes basic manufacture of a lot of everday goods such as cars, computers, food, clothes and plastics to name a few, a lot of people will probably die as a result and in a more pessimistic point of view we could actually be knocked back in levels of civilisation.
Well, there is no doubt that knocking out two of the pillars of the world's energy system will be devastating, but the problem is that the economic effects cause social and political effects, and those tend to inflict more damage. What will ultimately kill people, and I do see a downwards correction to the Earth's carrying capacity is inevitable, is the political response to the lack of energy, before the lack of energy itself is fully felt. Governments will not wait for revolution, poverty and starvation before issuing declarations of war. And energy resource conflicts can add tension to areas where there are water conflicts, for example.

It's going to be a mess, but a fun one. It's a rather sociopathic viewpoint, but if our civilisation is to decline and fall within my lifetime, I want to see it, and I do feel privileged to have the opportunity to witness it.

I suppose it might be interesting but I hope something like the draft doesn't get instituted...I dislike the idea of having to kill my fellow man to get out of something like that but I wouldn't fight a war that would only slow down the problem, because frankly it's over there is no alternative forms of energy for us, other form either rely too much on rare resources (solar power, nuclear, fuel cells) or they simply don't create enough energy (ethanol, hydrogen) in other words my opinion is simply to learn what you can and go with the flow because there isn't heck we can do...Whoopie

Looks like we'd be getting more nuclear power plants to compensate in the short term.
Means more Plutonium for terrorists to steal.

Actually I read somewhere it takes something like 10 years to build a high power nuclear power station and of course Uranium will begin to become harder and harder to get as the amount of energy availible falls...

Also www.peakoil.com is another good forum for discussions, but remember guys it won't be a crash but more of a mounting recession that slides further down as energy begins to run down to unacceptable levels the wars will of began by then too...

I'd hold off having kids at this point. We're all doomed to watch life slip back into the stone age, and the extinction of humanity within 100 years.

Reach the stars? HA! We'll be lucky to reach across an ocean in 100 years.

Also www.peakoil.com is another good forum for discussions, but remember guys it won't be a crash but more of a mounting recession that slides further down as energy begins to run down to unacceptable levels the wars will of began by then too...

The fall in production? yeah, it's not supposed to be a steady decline. That is, IF we manage to avoid resource wars. I'd rank our chance of avoiding that as so-so.

The economic crash, on the other hand, is likely to happen much like the one in 1929... ie the stock market implodes, but not before oil prices soar through the roof (not too long after this, the stock markets will likely be closed to prevent complete and utter chaos).

My opinion - We're Fucked.

Honestly, we're totally fucked. Oil is used for everything from food production to gold refining and we're not ready for the withdrawl as oil becomes exponentially more expensive. Plus the ensuing resource wars probably won't be too much fun either.

If we had the political will - and enough time - we might be able to cushion the fall, but we don't and who knows how much time we have.

A subject rarely examined is the different grades of oil and the distillates obtained from refining. We have used up half the oil, and for the most part, it is the light sweet stuff we have used up. What's left is heavy grades, oil contaminated with sulphur, vanadium, and all sorts of stuff. Still great stuff if you want to surface a road, but the kerosene fraction? Forget it. Aviation fuel will get a re-run of what's been happening with petrol prices, on a compressed time-scale. And then actual physical shortage.

The other thing that results from this is the fact that refineries are generally designed to handle oil from specific sources, and this creates yet another political flashpoint. Thus the dregs of what's left from the final rounds of exploration, the oil from the Caspian, heavily contaminated with heavy metals, cannot be refined anywhere other than at a refinery built to handle it. Similarly the sulphur-laden oil of most of the Saudi fields. Similarly with the heavy oil of Venezuela.

Venezuela is a good illustration of this. Suppose Venezuela handed China a preferential export contract. Simply arranged for the export of its oil to a new refinery in China. This frees up lots of refinery capacity in the US. Can the US switch supplier? Well, no. Those refineries are now scrap metal. That capacity is gone.

You can imagine the economic devastation and political fallout from that. And all it takes is a trade agreement.

But no, to most people, one barrel of oil is identical to another, regardless of its origin. It is no exaggeration to say that this blindness to the complexity of the situation will kill people.

Let it come. It will be an incentive for the world economy to both use less oil, and find other sources. It's made steady progress since the oil shocks of the 70s and 80s, but we'll have to experience one or two more to get the alternative energy thing off the ground. And we may see some other weird things. I hear coal is making a comeback of sorts.

When the SHTF, I'm moving to france. I expect nuclear power to become even more prevalent, while oil is turned almost completely to the government(for military use, etc). There will be shortages, but hardly compared to the drought that will be in america.

Though I will have to move before a huge crash/depression/etc. Otherwise, I fear many might do what I'm doing, causing a huge real estate market growth, etc.

Peak oil as a concept is true. Peak oil as some sort of doomsday scenario is greatly exaggerated. Peak Oil means only that the "cheap oil" will be shortly gone. What this leaves us with is the expensive oil. I think the "expensive oil" is actually a good thing for America. When I say expensive oil, I am talking about the huge reserves of energy that North America has that have not been utilized because it would have cost 35-45 dollars a barrel. The two biggest reserves are coal and oil sands/shales.

Canada, alone, has enough oil reserves in oil sands to supply American oil needs for 40-50 years. Until now, the price of extracting this bounty has been too high. How could you even contemplate extracting 40$ a barrel oil when the world price was $20-$25? That is not the case any longer. The same math prevented the U.S. from utilizing oil shale and coal for gasoline production. It also costs in the $40 range. U.S. coal/oil shale reserves are enormous. Processing of oil shale and coal gassification are now financially attractive. Investment in these industries will be an enormous stimulus to our economy. The peaking of cheap oil from overseas will give us back our energy independence.

I see an oil future 10-20 years from now where the price has stabilized at around $45 a barrel, where the only country the U.S. imports oil from is Canada, where gasoline rarely rises above $2.25 a gallon, where the refining industry is more decentralized and secure, where the U.S. need fight no more ugly little oil wars.

Bring on peak oil.

Interesting, you DO know the Tar sands have been plagued by problems everytime they have been attempted? Also the main methods of extracting oil from tar sands uses natural gas, a resource that is also becoming more scarce, usually it takes almost equal energy put in to get oil out (compared to other forms), an EROI of only 1.5 if things run smoothly compared to oil at 30.
But ultimateply it doesn't matter if we switch from oil to gas to coal they're still fossil fuels that will run short within 50 years if they are turned into a major energy source, at the rate we use oil all of it would be gone in 30 years anyway.
Also peak oil is not the end of cheap oil it is the maximum sustained production possible, after peak oil there can only be decline in production and it WILL be permanent, this 'aint no 'oil shock' it's gonna become quite horrible, as the economy can no longer expand it will fall into recession and huge inflation will set in.

My opinion: We're fucked (someone else said that too. :p )

I simply don't see industry and government doing what it takes to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels before it's too late.

My biggest worry is food transportation costs...a food riot is an UGLY thing.

I don't know...I tend to think the whole thing is overblown, but then again, if anything can deal the knockout blow to modern civilization, this would be it. :(

We're rather screwed.
Just looking around I see a lot of petroleum based products:
The keyboard I'm typing away on, the lamp switches, parts of the fire extinguisher to my right, the table the monitor and keyboard are on, the computer casing, the chair I'm sitting in, the carpet my feet are resting on, the shoes my feet are resting in, and when I look out of the window, I see plenty of cars that use gasoline driving by outside...