NationStates Jolt Archive


Sobering thoughts on America by a conservative....

Globes R Us
27-09-2005, 06:24
America is Running Out of Time

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

George W. Bush will go down in history as the president who fiddled while America lost its superpower status.

Bush used deceit and hysteria to lead America into a war that is bleeding the US economically, militarily, and diplomatically. The war is being fought with hundreds of billions of dollars borrowed from foreigners. The war is bleeding the military of troops and commitments. The war has ended the US claim to moral leadership and exposed the US as a reckless and aggressive power.

Focused on a concocted "war on terrorism," the Bush administration diverted money from the New Orleans levees to Iraq, with the consequence that the US now has a $100 billion rebuild bill on top of the war bill.

The US is so short of troops that neoconservatives are advocating the use of foreign mercenaries paid with US citizenship.

US efforts to isolate Iran have been blocked by Russia and China, nuclear powers that Bush cannot bully.

The Iraqi war has three beneficiaries: (1) al Qaeda, (2) Iran and (3) US war industries and Bush-Cheney cronies who receive no-bid contracts.

Everyone else is a loser.

The war has bestowed on al Qaeda recruits, prestige, and a training ground.

The war has allied Iran with Iraq's Shi'ite majority.

The war has brought soaring profits to the military industries and the firms with reconstruction contracts at the expense of 20,000 US military casualties and tens of thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties.

The Republican Party is a loser, because its hidebound support for the war is isolating the party from public opinion.

The Democratic Party is a loser, because its cowardly acquiescence in a war that is opposed by the majority of its members is making the party irrelevant.

The latest polls show that a majority of Americans believe the US cannot win against the Iraq insurgency. The majority support withdrawal and the redirection of war spending to rebuilding New Orleans. Despite the clarity of the public's wishes, the Republican Party continues to support the unpopular war.

With the exceptions of Reps. Cynthia McKinney and John Conyers, Democrats fled the scene of the Sept. 24 antiwar rally in Washington DC. The cynical Democrats are apparently owned by the same interest groups that own the Republicans and are refusing the mantle of majority party that the electorate is offering to the party that will end the war.

The Bush administration is churning out red ink in excess of $1 trillion annually. The federal budget deficit is approaching $500 billion. The US trade deficit is approaching $700 billion.

The budget deficit is being financed by foreigners, primarily Asians who now hold enough US government debt to exercise power over US interest rates and the value of the dollar whenever they decide to use the power that Bush has placed in their hands.

The trade deficit is being financed by turning over the ownership of US assets and future income streams to foreigners, making Americans forever poorer from the loss of accumulated wealth.

For the time being, China is willing to accumulate US assets as a way of taking over our consumer markets, attracting US manufacturing industry with cheap labor subsidized by artificial currency values, and gaining our technology. China's strategy is to over-value the US dollar in order to encourage the transfer of US economic capabilities to China. China's strategy gives artificial value to the dollar and keeps US interest rates at an artificial low.

The values of US stocks, bonds, and real estate depend on the support that Asians' economic strategies provide the dollar and US interest rates. As Asia achieves its goal of preeminence in manufacturing, innovation, and product development, the strategy will change. Once China completes its acquisition of US capabilities, it will no longer have a reason to support the dollar.

When the dollar goes, it will affect costs, profits, interest rates and living standards in dramatic ways. Costs and interest rates will soar, and profits, living standards, equity values, bond prices and real estate will plummet.

These unpleasant events await only Asia's decision to curtail its support for US red ink. That will happen when this support no longer serves Asia's interest.

When Asia pulls the plug on the dollar, the US government will find that monetary and fiscal policy are powerless to offset the consequences.

Compared to US budget and trade deficits, terrorists are a minor concern. The greatest danger that the US faces is the dollar's loss of reserve currency role. This would be an impoverishing event, one from which the US would not recover.

An intelligent government sincerely concerned with homeland security would find a way to halt the global labor arbitrage that is stripping the American economy of high value-added jobs and manufacturing capability, thereby causing the US trade deficit to explode. The loss of tax base that results when US companies outsource jobs and relocate production abroad makes it ever more difficult to balance a budget strained by war, natural disasters, and demographic impact on Social Security and Medicare.

Global labor arbitrage is rapidly dismantling the ladders of upward mobility and thereby endangering American political stability. This threat is far greater than any Osama bin Laden can mount.

Time is running out for Republicans and Democrats to escape from the distraction of a pointless war and to focus on the real threats that endanger the United States of America.

Paul Craig Roberts has held a number of academic appointments and has contributed to numerous scholarly publications. He served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. His graduate economics education was at the University of Virginia, the University of California at Berkeley, and Oxford University. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions. He can be reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com
Melkor Unchained
27-09-2005, 06:30
Pretty good; I actually happen to agree with a lot of this, which isn't something I have the luxury of doing very often on these forums. I think there might be a little bit of speculationi n there about the Asian markets: I think we're slightly better off economically than many people think: China's growth relative to ours is certainly a lot but they're not quite there yet and budget defecits can be a good thing, if you know what you're doing. Sadly, it doesn't look like we do anymore.
Belator
27-09-2005, 06:32
Ugh. Bush was not in charge of New Orlean's levees, that was the mayor's job.
Santa Barbara
27-09-2005, 06:34
Yep, pretty sobering. Now if only all these anti-war people were anti-war when I was, then we wouldn't have gone in. But noo, there was widespread support because people allowed themselves to be manipulated with mindless rallying cries alluding to 9/11, babble about WMDs and the vague notion that invasion is actually an act of pure defense.
Non Aligned States
27-09-2005, 06:39
Ugh. Bush was not in charge of New Orlean's levees, that was the mayor's job.

Without Federal funds, what was he going to do to fix the levees? Hold charity bake sales to raise money?
Hobovillia
27-09-2005, 06:42
Yep, pretty sobering. Now if only all these anti-war people were anti-war when I was, then we wouldn't have gone in. But noo, there was widespread support because people allowed themselves to be manipulated with mindless rallying cries alluding to 9/11, babble about WMDs and the vague notion that invasion is actually an act of pure defense.
I have to say, when I heard about the World Trade Centre attacks(This makes me sound like a dick) I felt you guys got what was coming for you after being a "Super-power" for so long, you only have to goto other countrys to see, America has one of the worst reputations.
Globes R Us
27-09-2005, 06:45
I have to say, when I heard about the World Trade Centre attacks(This makes me sound like a dick) I felt you guys got what was coming for you after being a "Super-power" for so long, you only have to goto other countrys to see, America has one of the worst reputations.

NO! America has been resented in many Muslim countries for its ignorance of their problems and adding to them but nothing, nothing justified 9/11.
Santa Barbara
27-09-2005, 06:45
I have to say, when I heard about the World Trade Centre attacks(This makes me sound like a dick) I felt you guys got what was coming for you after being a "Super-power" for so long, you only have to goto other countrys to see, America has one of the worst reputations.

It does make you sound like a dick, the ultra nationalists here will flame you for that too. But I understand where you're coming from, frankly it's a bit surprising how much we meddled in the Middle East and other places while avoiding a response.
Hobovillia
27-09-2005, 06:49
It does make you sound like a dick, the ultra nationalists here will flame you for that too. But I understand where you're coming from, frankly it's a bit surprising how much we meddled in the Middle East and other places while avoiding a response.

And also even though they were over a 1000 years ago, believe it or not, the so-called "Holy Cursades*", they are still having effect, with resentment towards Christanity and of course we know the U.S. is a major Christian nation...*starts rambling on about how screwed up religion is*
Atheistic Heathenism
27-09-2005, 06:49
The threat posed by the Chinese economy is somewhat overrated. China may be experiencing "rapid" growth, but the vast majority of Chinese are desperately poor, and living in third world conditions. Chinese manufacturing capabilities may be impressive in their ability to produce large volumes of product for low low prices, but it relies upon virtual slave labor. Chinese technology is at best, a shoddy copy of our own. Yada yada yada, the government of China is playing the smoke and mirrors game. Kind of lost interest in writing lol.
Globes R Us
27-09-2005, 06:52
Pretty good; I actually happen to agree with a lot of this, which isn't something I have the luxury of doing very often on these forums. I think there might be a little bit of speculationi n there about the Asian markets: I think we're slightly better off economically than many people think: China's growth relative to ours is certainly a lot but they're not quite there yet and budget defecits can be a good thing, if you know what you're doing. Sadly, it doesn't look like we do anymore.

We must all hope and pray that the next president foregoes the chest thumping of foreign adventures and concentrates on domestic policies.
As you say, I think the plight of the US is a bit overdone but unless some dynamic action is taken during the next 5/10 years, this 'prediction' could come horribly true.
Atheistic Heathenism
27-09-2005, 06:54
Trying to stop people from bombing us, by bombing them, because they bombed us is stunningly ironic.

My thoughts on the "war on terror."
Mariehamn
27-09-2005, 08:12
Actually, the threat posed by the Chinese economy is a political balancing act. America can't do anything in the region to upset China, and maintain their goals, if the men in the White House continue to have corporate ties and interests. Asia fueling deficits, as well as other countries, is also a problem. Children at McDonalds must have their happy mean toys ya know, and SUVs needs gas. Why did America invade Iraq, and not Saudi Arabia or Iran, who are the biggest oil producers in the region, and whose oil profits are leaking to terrorist groups?

However, Iraq is a better target to start a war in, than say, Vietnam, with almost no resources that are easier to control. There is a reason why the Coalition secured oil wells before a majority of cities, and not just because their environmentalists.

And America's reputation is not THAT bad. I'm living in the Baltic States, and while people are kinda pissed about America not liberating the Soviet Satillite states because they were just down right scared of the Communist Ruskies, its mainly the government non-Americans don't like, and not the citizens.
Melkor Unchained
27-09-2005, 09:04
We must all hope and pray that the next president foregoes the chest thumping of foreign adventures and concentrates on domestic policies.
I find it interesting as to how many people have no idea what neoconservatism is about or where it came from, now that you bring this up. I agree with what youre saying and I'm not accusing you of ignorance, but I'd like to take this opportunity to point out a few things about neocons and the 'Republicans' that follow them.

Neoconservatism got its start in the '60s [!] when a prominent group of political theorists [many of them Jewish] broke with the Democratic party for their stance on Palestine. The movement has its roots dating as far back to the formation of the New Left in the '50s but I consider the nomination of George McGovern in 1972 as being the key defining moment in Neoconservative formation.

As a result of these vews, Neocons have always been hawkish on foreign policy, but you can definately tell they share a lot of spending ideas with the Democrats. Say what you will about the social conservatism of the present regime, you can't deny that they're very fiscally liberal and pro big-government like their Democratic [!] predecessors.

Neoconservatism, if it is allowed to continue without challenge, will lead this nation to ruin in an alarmingly rapid and violent fashion.

As you say, I think the plight of the US is a bit overdone but unless some dynamic action is taken during the next 5/10 years, this 'prediction' could come horribly true.
I agree completely. We need to get back into the game in a big way.
Laerod
27-09-2005, 09:13
Ugh. Bush was not in charge of New Orlean's levees, that was the mayor's job.While it is doubtful that the money would have made the difference, Mayor Nagin was not responsible for the cutting of NATIONAL funds.
Ariddia
27-09-2005, 12:35
That was written by a conservative? Damn. For once, I have to applaud a conservative for his intelligence and insight into the major problems the US is faced with.
Laerod
27-09-2005, 12:48
And also even though they were over a 1000 years ago, believe it or not, the so-called "Holy Cursades*", they are still having effect, with resentment towards Christanity and of course we know the U.S. is a major Christian nation...*starts rambling on about how screwed up religion is*The real funny thing about the Crusades is that the Muslims won...
Eutrusca
27-09-2005, 12:51
The greatest danger that the US faces is the dollar's loss of reserve currency role. This would be an impoverishing event, one from which the US would not recover.
This article, while pessimistic in the extreme, makes a number of valid points. The portion I quoted above, however, is not one of them. The US has been counted "down and out" many, many times: the War of 1812, the Great Depression, the loss of US military secrets to the Soviet Union ... the list is long. Pessimists have always said "This will destroy the US," yet we're still here, alive and kicking.

I forget who said, "Betting against America has always been a losing proposition," but whomever he was, he should be awarded a medal.
Eli
27-09-2005, 13:05
yeah Roberts is an isolationist big time. His policies would be, balance the budget by eliminating Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, and any other spending program. Implement a tariff system to stop the flood of inexpensive foreign mainly Asian goods, demanded by consumers go to a parking lot at WalMart some day. Ignore any and all suffering that may cause and yell at the top of your lungs 'get a job lowlife'.


But yeah he is an isolationist bordering on Anti-Semitic.
Non Aligned States
27-09-2005, 13:09
The real funny thing about the Crusades is that the Muslims won...

Piss poor logistics by the Crusaders that did them in didn't they? I heard that it even ended up with King Richard (or was it someone else), taking a city and ending up getting stuck in a siege with practically no supplies.

Although it didn't do anything to stop the looting, pillaging and killing if memory serves.


But yeah he is an isolationist bordering on Anti-Semitic.

How does being isolationist equate to being Anti-Semitic? Xenophobic I could have understood, but Anti-semitic?
Eutrusca
27-09-2005, 13:10
yeah Roberts is an isolationist big time. His policies would be, balance the budget by eliminating Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, and any other spending program. Implement a tariff system to stop the flood of inexpensive foreign mainly Asian goods, demanded by consumers go to a parking lot at WalMart some day. Ignore any and all suffering that may cause and yell at the top of your lungs 'get a job lowlife'.

But yeah he is an isolationist bordering on Anti-Semitic.
Some proof of this assertion would be nice, don't you think? :)
Lacadaemon
27-09-2005, 13:41
Well, i don't know if rebuilding NO is such a good idea. It's only going to get wiped out again. They should relocate it.

Also, this should tell people finally that there is a housing bubble.