The Nazz
19-09-2005, 19:56
We aren't nearly done with the hurricane season yet. From Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html):
RITA TO STRIKE FLORIDA KEYS AS CAT 2
GALVESTON IN CENTER OF STRIKE ZONE SATURDAY AS SOLID CAT 3
Although not official, Tropical Storm Rita is absolutely of Hurricane intensity at this time. Satellite imagery indicates that strong convection has wrapped completely around the center -- and an inner eye wall has already formed. The next RECON will reach the storm this afternoon, but imagery over the past 2 hours indicates it is a VERY solid CAT 1 hurricane. The storm is located near 23N/76W and is moving WNW at 10Kts.
The models continue to show Rita passing through the Florida Straits, and the Florida Keys will likely take the brunt of the storm -- probably as a CAT 2 hurricane.
The GFS and indeed all the global models continue to show Rita reaching the north Texas coast Saturday -- and while over the Gulf of Mexico, should develop a strong upper level anticyclone that will only increase the probability that RITA will reach Major Hurricane intensity by Wednesday as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Ship and surface reports indicate the wind field around the storm is increasing, especially in the northern semi-circle, and this increases the chances of sustained gale force winds affecting southern Florida from near West Palm Beach southward, with gusts to hurricane force likely from Ft. Lauderdale south across Dade county. Sustained hurricane force winds are expected across the Keys with the peak storm conditions in SE Florida in about 24 hours, and across the Keys in the 24-36 hour time frame.
All the models are showing what the GFS has been indicating for 6 model runs in a row -- the ridge over the southern U.S. will have it's western edge erode sooner than originally thought, and this will allow the storm to turn NW Thursday.
At this time - the far upper coast coast - near Galveston - appears to have the highest landfall probability on Saturday.
HOWEVER -- with recent model trends -- a turn sooner rather than later could lead to a landfall along the coast of Louisiana.
I got the very edge of the rain this morning on my way to work, and I'm tempted to go ahead and fill up on the way home this evening in case there's another slowdown in gas production--prices haven't retreated much in the last couple of weeks and who knows where they'll go from here--$3.50 a gallon?
RITA TO STRIKE FLORIDA KEYS AS CAT 2
GALVESTON IN CENTER OF STRIKE ZONE SATURDAY AS SOLID CAT 3
Although not official, Tropical Storm Rita is absolutely of Hurricane intensity at this time. Satellite imagery indicates that strong convection has wrapped completely around the center -- and an inner eye wall has already formed. The next RECON will reach the storm this afternoon, but imagery over the past 2 hours indicates it is a VERY solid CAT 1 hurricane. The storm is located near 23N/76W and is moving WNW at 10Kts.
The models continue to show Rita passing through the Florida Straits, and the Florida Keys will likely take the brunt of the storm -- probably as a CAT 2 hurricane.
The GFS and indeed all the global models continue to show Rita reaching the north Texas coast Saturday -- and while over the Gulf of Mexico, should develop a strong upper level anticyclone that will only increase the probability that RITA will reach Major Hurricane intensity by Wednesday as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Ship and surface reports indicate the wind field around the storm is increasing, especially in the northern semi-circle, and this increases the chances of sustained gale force winds affecting southern Florida from near West Palm Beach southward, with gusts to hurricane force likely from Ft. Lauderdale south across Dade county. Sustained hurricane force winds are expected across the Keys with the peak storm conditions in SE Florida in about 24 hours, and across the Keys in the 24-36 hour time frame.
All the models are showing what the GFS has been indicating for 6 model runs in a row -- the ridge over the southern U.S. will have it's western edge erode sooner than originally thought, and this will allow the storm to turn NW Thursday.
At this time - the far upper coast coast - near Galveston - appears to have the highest landfall probability on Saturday.
HOWEVER -- with recent model trends -- a turn sooner rather than later could lead to a landfall along the coast of Louisiana.
I got the very edge of the rain this morning on my way to work, and I'm tempted to go ahead and fill up on the way home this evening in case there's another slowdown in gas production--prices haven't retreated much in the last couple of weeks and who knows where they'll go from here--$3.50 a gallon?