NationStates Jolt Archive

Coincidence?

Don't they like...vote during the day?

Don't they like...vote during the day?
No, silly! Of course they don't! Otherwise everyone'd see who they voted for! That's why they vote at night.
...but that full moon does create quite a few problems, indeed..

Don't they like...vote during the day?Voting stopped 5 hours ago... ;)

No idea, but the thought that a thatcherian candidate takes over in Germany, acountry with one of the best welfare programme s in Europe frightens me....What if she start a neo-conservative fasion in Europe all over again?

No idea, but the thought that a thatcherian candidate takes over in Germany, acountry with one of the best welfare programme s in Europe frightens me....What if she start a neo-conservative fasion in Europe all over again?
The big political joke is that although her coalition partner got it's first two digit result in a long time, she doesn't have the seats to become chancellor, so she'll have to look for something else.
The CDU started off with a simple majority when early elections were first planned, but now the CDU and FDP together don't have enough! :D

I don't think she'll be chancellor at all. The left has a larger majority. Now if only the FDP were true modern liberals and not the classic liberal, neo-liberal bullshit that they are.... The SDP would have a very strong majority.

No idea, but the thought that a thatcherian candidate takes over in Germany, acountry with one of the best welfare programme s in Europe frightens me....What if she start a neo-conservative fasion in Europe all over again?
That's what's to be seen. I just combined a "Oh no! Lemmings" - uh... "German General Elections" and two "Full Moon" threads.
I hope she won't. As for sleepless nights - hope it doesn't get so bad this night
:D

I don't think she'll be chancellor at all. The left has a larger majority. Now if only the FDP were true modern liberals and not the classic liberal, neo-liberal bullshit that they are.... The SDP would have a very strong majority.There won't be any coalition with the Linkspartei. That's one thing all others agree on.

well I think that old Oscar will grab the chance and cause a lot of chaos. There is also the prospect of a cdu-spd coalition, though the last time that happened it was 40 years ago and it did not end well

well I think that old Oscar will grab the chance and cause a lot of chaos. There is also the prospect of a cdu-spd coalition, though the last time that happened it was 40 years ago and it did not end wellIt went well while they were at it though...
Anyway, there isn't that much that Oscar and Gregor can do as opposition. In they end, they're not part of the government and any power would have to be gained in the Bundesrat.

It went well while they were at it though...
Anyway, there isn't that much that Oscar and Gregor can do as opposition. In they end, they're not part of the government and any power would have to be gained in the Bundesrat.
Yeah but they are in some sort of a political position of power, since both cdu and sdp are looking for political allies, and as far as I remember the Linkhspartei is more powerful than the Greens

Coincidence?

Ynghai! Ia! Ia! Cthulhu! Ftahgn! Ia! Ia! Yog-Shohoth!

Yeah but they are in some sort of a political position of power, since both cdu and sdp are looking for political allies, and as far as I remember the Linkhspartei is more powerful than the GreensUm... there will be no coalition with the Linkspartei as in there will be no coalition with the Linkspartei. That's the only thing that's clear so far. And the Linkspartei may have more seats than the Greens, but the FDP has more seats than the Linke. They could have more seats and it wouldn't make a difference.

So guys, after seeing the official (predicted) results that are out at the moment, who do we think will end up in government?

I honestly don't know who to put my money on. As has already been pointed out the left/right blocks are both incapable of forming a majority without stealing the smaller coalition partner from the other side. Will the FDP join the SPD? Or are the Greens more likely to go right?

I can't see the FDP supporting Schroder after all the recent claims of stagnation etc unless he can offer them something remarkable. This would upset the Greens who have already been having doubts about the wisdom of the last coalition which caused some serious internal rifts & it is also worth considering that their recent manifesto was more leftie than previously (although that could have been an electoral strategy to try and hold off the new Left Party alliance.)

Similarly, the leftward switch makes it hard to see how the Greens can join with the CDU/CSU and FDP, particularly given the anti-American conflicts within their party & Merkel's more pro-Atlantic attitudes. Again, the Greens could be bribed, but it seems unlikely to me that the conservatives would be willing to offer them a better deal than the SPD can/have done over the last government - Iraq won't be too far from the minds of the Greens atm.

The other major touted option is the "grand coalition". This certainly isn't quite as much a disaster as is being predicted as too much infighting will just lead to more elections a year or two later. It is hard to imagine, however, that the SPD would make things this easy for Merkel & certainly Schroder would find it impossible to work under her (I believe). At the moment GS seems to be firmly in control of his party although his position could weaken depending on how long the negotiations take. There is also an argument, certainly being pushed by the SPD currently, that the left actually has the mandate as although they are unlikely to have the largest single party, between them they will have more than fifty percent of the vote. I find it hard to imagine this argument winning out in the short term although it may come into play if no agreement is forthcoming:

The President is almost certain to nominate the leader of the largest block for Chancellor. The German assembly can reject this choice, however, and at later stages may actually hold their own "mini election" where the person with the most votes, majority or otherwise, becomes Chancellor. It is at this point where the SPD/Green/Left "majority" could come into their own. This scenario is, though, quite a way down the line & would only come into effect if the horsetrading comes to nothing.

The final possiblity that I can see involves a large U-turn for the left. Both the SPD and the Left alliance have already publicly stated that they will not go into government together. Certainly Schroder hates them with a passion although I'm not sure that the Greens would be too keen either. This could only really come off if GS can keep his party firmly behind him & will go to any lengths to keep out Merkel. It is all the more unlikely as the right have gained some ground in this election & the electorate may be a little bemused to see the givernment move further to the left.

Basically, I don't know where they're going. I would personally like to see the Left try to work with the SPD - for years the SPD were weakening themselves by their antagonism with the PDS (the semi-reformed E. German Communists) and this is slowly changing, albeit only at a regional level so far. I have to admit that this scenario is pretty unlikely in the short term.

I feel quite cut off from news as my German isn't what it could be so am looking for suggestions.

Anyone got a different analysis? Prepared to have a guess at where the government will eventually come from? (apologies for rambling...!)

Anyone got a different analysis? Prepared to have a guess at where the government will eventually come from? (apologies for rambling...!)No it's pretty good.
Recent events though: Stoiber no longer rules out a "Schwampel" Coalition (from the German words Ampel, meaning traffic light and representing the SPD as red, the FDP as yellow, and the Greens as green; and the word Schwarz meaning black, referring to the political color associated with the CDU) This one would include the CDU, FDP, and Greens. But Stoiber hasn't really got that much to say in CDU politics since he managed to lose the last election.

Thanks.
Well, that certainly seems to be the first port of call now. My feeling is that there will be some difficult diplomacy trying to win the opponent's "traditional" partner whilst holding on to your own.
There are just too many uncertainties about how the Greens and the FDP are feeling at the moment to be sure what will come out of it all. I would hazard a guess that the FDP are keener to be in government than the Greens, but who knows?!

Thanks.
Well, that certainly seems to be the first port of call now. My feeling is that there will be some difficult diplomacy trying to win the opponent's "traditional" partner whilst holding on to your own.
There are just too many uncertainties about how the Greens and the FDP are feeling at the moment to be sure what will come out of it all. I would hazard a guess that the FDP are keener to be in government than the Greens, but who knows?!The Greens have already prepared for warming the opposition benches. The main candidates have already been getting the followers ready for it with their speeches.

Ynghai! Ia! Ia! Cthulhu! Ftahgn! Ia! Ia! Yog-Shohoth!
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

Don't they like...vote during the day?

No, silly! Of course they don't! Otherwise everyone'd see who they voted for! That's why they vote at night.
...but that full moon does create quite a few problems, indeed..

well yes, that's one of the reasons. the major reason though is people like me. i am very paranoid and i'm a dark-loving creature, i fear the bright and shiny world, and you cannot put upon me the burden to have to go out into the sun in order to fulfil my democratic duties.

the country of wagner, nietzsche etc. cannot stand up in the sun, we have the inborn need to creep around in the dark..creatures of the night..

but then you all knew that, right?