NationStates Jolt Archive

Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1552092,00.html)

This reminds me of the great resource bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich (http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/People/julian_simon.html).

Would you put up $US10,000 (if you had it)?

They've resorted to betting? Wow...we've stooped to a whole new low here. I'm impressed.

They've resorted to betting? Wow...we've stooped to a whole new low here. I'm impressed.

:confused:
The Simon-Ehrlich bet was made 25 years ago...

I wouldn’t want to risk losing. The cycles of the Earth are far too random. I don’t gamble anyway.

I wouldn't bet in the first place. To do so is just pissing your money down the toilet, because right now both theories are just that, theories. Cooling down or heating up, it's much too random for me.

:confused:
The Simon-Ehrlich bet was made 25 years ago...

I was refering to the bet made by the Russians.

Haven't you watched the Day After Tomorrow? Global Warming brings about Global Cooling!

What happens if half of the world cools and the other half warms? What would be the terms and what are the odds?

I would make the bet. I've never bought into the global warming greenhouse gas myth. It is all an natural earth cycle called Glacial Pleuvial periods.

I was refering to the bet made by the Russians.

But that's exactly what I mean it's not a new bet. The Simon-Ehrlich bet is, to a certain degree, the same bet, with minor changes - doomsayer bets conditions on the planet will be worse, while skeptic bets they won't.

Haven't you watched the Day After Tomorrow? Global Warming brings about Global Cooling!

The Day After Tomorrow is perhaps one of the most inaccurate nonsense films from Hollywood in a long time. You realize that hollywood and science don't mix right?

Would sure be nice to have the money when the climate changes... :)

Yeah, we'll bet on cooling or warming, and then the earth will be hit by an asteroid or something else that will destroy us.

Well if things are to believed it's going to get a lot cooler across the whole of Europe. But hotter and dryer in the Amazon, effectivly killing the rain forest.

Whether or not the earth is warming or cooling is largely irrelevant. The question is whether humans are causing the majority of the effect, whatever it may be.

Yeah, we'll bet on cooling or warming, and then the earth will be hit by an asteroid or something else that will destroy us.

:D That sounds about right. Another VEI-8 volcanic eruption event could do the trick too (the Yellowstone Caldera is the currently tendy example, but there are others).

Whether or not the earth is warming or cooling is largely irrelevant. The question is whether humans are causing the majority of the effect, whatever it may be.

Volcanos contribute a lot to it, a lot more than humans.

Volcanos contribute a lot to it, a lot more than humans.Statements like those need sources.

Statements like those need sources.

Will these do? http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Volcanos%22+and+%22global+warming%22&btnG=Google+Search

well actually what you are getting confused about is the name

it should really be called global climate change

it will get colder in some areas (such as britain (there is a resonable chance the gulf stream will shut down as the mechanisms are interfeared with by changing climate so we will be like central greenland))

it will mean there will be deserts where much of the food is being grown but that relates to precipitation (water falling from the sky in various ways) rather then heat (the anartic and artic are both deserts)

so really your bet wouldn't work

but it is being caused at least in part by humans

but all in all we won't destroy the world

the worst that we will do is destroy all the civilations on the earth and possibly make it uninhabitable for humans

but thate would be very hard to do (i.e. as civilations collapse countries lash out with nukes and so on)

but at worst we will just destroy the majority of 'complex' life on earth but lots will survive

anything we can do to the world has already happend but worse (permian extinction over 90% of all species known died out due to a asteroid or comet hitting the earth at about the same time the decon traps in what is now siberia errupted (it produced enough lava to covour asia in a layer several metres deep)

The Day After Tomorrow is perhaps one of the most inaccurate nonsense films from Hollywood in a long time. You realize that hollywood and science don't mix right?

Actually hes right.

The Earths Atmosphere will heat up, causing the ice caps to melt, causing sea levels to rise. Then to even everything out, a huge cooling trend will begin, and the world will be thrown into a new ice age.

However this is not caused by man, this is natural.

Actually hes right.

The Earths Atmosphere will heat up, causing the ice caps to melt, causing sea levels to rise. Then to even everything out, a huge cooling trend will begin, and the world will be thrown into a new ice age.

However this is not caused by man, this is natural.
why would cooling begin?
Melting the ice caps would speed global warming because ice reflects sun light also there's a hell of a lot of green house gases trapped in siberia by ice. The only cooling that will happen is in Europe if the gulf stream stops.

why would cooling begin?
Melting the ice caps would speed global warming because ice reflects sun light also there's a hell of a lot of green house gases trapped in siberia by ice. The only cooling that will happen is in Europe if the gulf stream stops.

The current alternative is solar variation (which is what the scientists involved in the OP expect - their claim is that the upcomming period decreased sunspot activity will result in lower temperatures.)

Volcanic activity, mentioned by several posters above, could also result in significant cooling.

Will these do? http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Volcanos%22+and+%22global+warming%22&btnG=Google+SearchDid you bother looking at them? Half of them are credible sources that refute that volcanoes have a lasting effect:
While volcanos can certainly have a large effect on climate, their effects are transient.Third one down: "Human Activity and Global Warming"

also ( :p )
Did you mean to search for: "Volcanoes" and "global warming" (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Volcanoes%22+and+%22global+warming%22&spell=1) Which pumps out way more that support my hypothesis that they don't have as much of an influence, which I'd like to attribute to the fact that "volcanoes" is the correct spelling.

Did you bother looking at them? Half of them are credible sources that refute that volcanoes have a lasting effect:.

Yes, one should be fair and balanced.

I'd bet that because the world could just warm up a tiny bit (smaller than a degree) which it has been doing for awhile so.....I win where's my money?

Yes, one should be fair and balanced.One? I dunno, I looked at a lot of them and most of the ones I saw had something about "volcanoes not having a major influence". I don't like basing my opinion on only one source, if I can help it.
The fact that most of the ones that spelled volcanoes correctly had a slightly different balance (in favor of my hypothesis) strengthened my belief that volcanoes not having much of an influence is the scientifically sounder statement. And I read the names of the sites too. I trust things like
www.polymath-systems.com/pubpol/globwarm.html
www.livescience.com/
more than
www.gaspig.com/volcano.htm
www.mrp3.com/bobf/global_warming.html
www.youthnoise.com/link/hp081505

hasn't anyone seen the docu-drama made by the BBC about Yellowstone eruption?

http://www.solcomhouse.com/yellowstone.htm

(the super volcanoes around the world map will scare you if your in the u.s)

more stuff from the BBC (trusted source)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes_script.shtml

super volcano world affects:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/article.shtml

and even a game:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/game.shtml

why would cooling begin?

Because the Earths Climate has to adjust itself or it is completely out of balance. It would happen naturally, because of gases from space and the Earths atmosphere.

hasn't anyone seen the docu-drama made by the BBC about Yellowstone eruption?

http://www.solcomhouse.com/yellowstone.htm

(the super volcanoes around the world map will scare you if your in the u.s)
Yeah but
1. nothing can be done but plan to evacuate
2. It might not happen for 1000 years or more.
EDIT: 3. the docu-drama shows the worst possible eruption.

Because the Earths Climate has to adjust itself or it is completely out of balance. It would happen naturally, because of gases from space and the Earths atmosphere.
I still don't understand, why would the world have to stop from going out of balance? I'll admit that I have absolutly no qualifications on well anything :D I'm still in school but that doesn't sound right to me and I'm pretty sure the world has gone "out of balance" before and taken thousands if not alot more years to get "back in balance".

Yeah but
1. nothing can be done but plan to evacuate
2. It might not happen for 1000 years or more.
EDIT: 3. the docu-drama shows the worst possible eruption.

4) 1+2=your point?

I wouldn't bet against them because the earth can take on different stances to combat whatever is happening to the climate.. and we cannot really predict it. Global warming is happening, but to say the ONLY conclusion of global warming is the heating up of our climate would be wrong. I'm pretty sure once we reach degrees above what is naturally normal the balance will sway in whatever direction it must, although it might be extreme.

4) 1+2=your point?
5) In theory, if we detonated a nuke underground at the site large enough to cause mini-eruptions from said super colcano we could postpone a major eruption at the site for quite a while.

I still don't understand, why would the world have to stop from going out of balance? I'll admit that I have absolutly no qualifications on well anything :D I'm still in school but that doesn't sound right to me and I'm pretty sure the world has gone "out of balance" before and taken thousands if not alot more years to get "back in balance".

Yes it would take a long time, but it will happen, it will have to, and this cooling trend will occur, during the 4th Ice Age, when it will continuly get colder, until it gets too cold, when it starts to heat up again, at which point the Ice Age will finish, and the process will repeat itself.

But what we don't know is when it will happen, and how long it will last.

Bump