NationStates Jolt Archive

Please vote and post
all the choices that apply
to your views.

Assuming that
President Fidel Castro of Cuba
born August 13,1926, 79 years old
dies in power, as seems most probable
despite recent small sporadic
anti government protests, economic problems,
a housing crisis and power blackouts.

And assuming his designated successor
the Minister of the Armed Forces
Raul Castro born June 3,1931,
74 years old, Fidel's brother
and his successors establish
some form of governing council.

How do you see Cuba changing
after Castro dies?

Do you think their will be a military coup
that will lead the nation towards democratic
elections and changes?

Anti government protests that will lead
to democratic changes?

Democratic reforms by Fidel Castro's
successors or a continuation of Fidel's
successors in power long term?

How do you think the Cuban economy will change,
will it change to a capitalist economy,
a mixed socialist, capitalist economy,
or will it have a socialist economy?

Post and vote all your diffrent possible views
of what you think might happen in Cuba after
Fidel Castro dies.

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My personal view if Cuba changes,
just think of all the American, Cuban American,
European and other nations businesses that
will open businesses in Cuba.

Employing millions of Cubans
earning and spending money.

All the houses and buildings that
need paint and repair, all the
houses that need to be constructed
to meet current demand.

All the service businesses that
need to be created.

The infrastructure that
needs to be improved.

I think Cuba will have a Strong or Powerhouse economy
within 5 to 10 years, and will start out strong.

I was going to mention Raul. :) I just wonder who'll end up in charge him or the army.

Raul is a drunk. He's totally incompetent. Cuba is definitely going back to a capitalism system after Castro dies. Raul will be exiled or killed in a coup.

Next time I see a thread about Fidel and Cuba, I'll expect haikus, dammit.

Whoever it is, it won't be the Miami exile community, which means they'll continue to piss and moan down here.

What I'm curious to see is if all the Cubans who are in the US because of Castro will move back there when he dies.

I think that they've had enough with 1 Castro and won't really want another (I'm assuming Raul is Fidel's brother?). If Raul becomes dictator and doesn't attempt to make any reforms then I wouldn't be surprised if the Cuban people remove him from power. If the country establishes a democracy and starts making friendly overtures to the US, then we'd most definitely lift our embargo and Cuba would probably end up being very well-off. I don't really see them as having a powerhouse economy, but still being fairly economically strong.

Think About i think itll be what it was before Castro a rich island paradise you will soon be able to spend a week in cuba for vacation like you can on any other carribbean island

When I was down in the keys I met a guy who told me that there are lots of German companies down there waiting for Castro to die. I have no doubt that it will turn into a capitalist country, hopefully a libertarian one at that, but that's too much to hope for. It will probably end up a corrupt millitary dictatorship that rules over a flood of foriegn investments that come in after the economy opens up. Or it will end up with a cloned U.S. government that won't last long. Cuba could be an economic powderkeg if they adopt free market economics, but if they turn to more keynesian economics(which I have little doubt they will) their economy will end up as yet another Latin failure.

You may vote on all poll questions that
fit your views none will be considered contradictory
except for 4, 5, and 6 on what kind of economy Cuba
will have long term.

Colodia,

And what is it that you want
next time you see a thread on
Fidel and Cuba?

Haikus Dammit,
excuse my english
but what is haikus dammit?

Expect a friendly diplomatic telegram
from me some time soon on other matters
of importance to both our governments
Colodia.

I think Castro, being a smart individual, already has a plan in place for how, when and who will rule Cuba. If his long, untoppled and reasonably successful rule is any indicator, this plan is unlikely to fail. Of course we have no idea what this plan is, it could be anything from democratization to having one of his most trusted lieutenants hold power.

If the economy changes, it will be mixed. There will be more private enterprise on a small scale, and more foreign investment. Socialist elements won't just disappear though - they will keep free, universal healthcare, and free education, and probably nationalized transport systems and such.

Regardless, Cuba's not gonna magically adopt US style capitalism and government when Castro kicks it, period. The exile community will not magically reappear in Cuba and oversee a "golden age," either. Things might change, but things might stay exactly the same as well. My hope is that wherever Cuba goes, the death of Castro will cleanse some of the bad blood between the US and Cuba, and ushers in a more normalized relationship.

I am thinking of creating one more thread
on Fidel and Cuba and Cuban Americans,
so you will need alot of
Haikus dammit, whatever that is.

La Habana Cuba

Think About i think itll be what it was before Castro a rich island paradise you will soon be able to spend a week in cuba for vacation like you can on any other carribbean island
Except ones with unstable governments. Who votes for Cuba turning into next Haiti?

Except ones with unstable governments. Who votes for Cuba turning into next Haiti?
Hey, that's what it was before Castro came along. Won't say he's a nice guy, but he's far and away better than the Batista gov't was. I see another 3rd world island that only makes the news when the regime changes.

Is there a Miami after Castro's downfall?



by Manuel Cereijo



This is a question in the minds of many people. There are all kinds of predictions about how many Cuban-Americans will be returning to Cuba once the Castro regime is over and a democratic and capitalistic Cuba is born again. The downfall of the regime is now very close.



Actually, is very difficult to make such predictions because it depends on such factors as when it happens, how it happens, and the psychological and emotional impact on the Miami Cuban population. However, there is no question that a substantial amount of persons will return to Cuba. Another substantial amount will do business in Cuba as well as in the USA.



Possibly, there will be a floating population between Cuba and Florida, and between US and Cuba, via Miami, where native Americans and Cuban Americans will go back and forth as tourists, businessmen, visitors, and this flow will create a more dynamic economy in Miami.



The economic recuperation of Cuba should be fast and it will bring an extraordinary growth in the economy, not only of South Florida, but the State as a whole. All activities related to the economic development of Cuba will be related to import/export, services, manufacturing, construction, technology transfer, and tourism. The USA-mainly Florida-and Cuba will develop a mutual and beneficial economic relationship.



Also, based on the declining production and deterioration of existing industries in Cuba, a new industrial environment will be developed that will restructure existing manufacturing companies, attract new manufacturing companies, and stimulate the creation of new companies. Cuba, because of its geography, and its strategic geographical location, will be effective in developing and establishing high tech companies, especially those that manufactures products of high cost and small size and weight.



The types of information and assistance needed are likely to vary also. However, the assistance will have to come from Florida, not only on parts, raw materials, and equipment, but also on technology transfer. Our Institutions of higher education will play a vital role in the future of Cuba. In the new Cuba there must be the ability of adapting to change, in acquiring new knowledge, in accommodating technology, and in adjusting to new management process.





When success is achieved, Cuba should move into those areas of specialization in which she can do best. Of course, the USA will maintain an absolute lead in overall technology, and therefore Cuba will depend on technology transfer from Florida in order to sustain economic growth and global competitiveness.



The transfer of technology from Florida to Cuba’s economic activities would be in a form essentially noncompetitive with activities in Florida and, further, will complement Florida activities. In such cases, these transfers will benefit Cuba, the private firms, and the Florida economy at large.



The establishment of an effective and competitive manufacturing process that implements the development of complex high technology products will have to be done in close cooperation with the technical organizations in Florida. Perhaps, for very complex products and processes only after the first manufacturing plant is successful in the USA, should the plant be established in Cuba.



The entire infrastructure of Cuba will have to be totally revamped and constructed. Electrical energy, telecommunications, housing, transportation, water and sanitation, health related industries. Where are the expertise and the resources? They are in Miami, and in Florida in general.



Yes, definitive there will be a Miami-and Florida-after Castro. In fact, there will be an even more successful and ebullient Miami, and Florida, with a completely restructured economy; different from the existing one, but larger and better.



The fall of Castro, which is close, will be fortunate, not only for Cuba, but also for Florida, and the United States.

Everybody is stupid amounts of optimistic arn't they. I can already feel the puppet governors and coup de'tats

I can hope that the US doesn't directly involve itself in Cuba's affairs, except only to offer advice, and to make new offers that will get rid of the tension that's existed between both nations for the last few decades. It would be nice if the animousity were dropped already, but it doesn't look like that'll happen til Castro's gone.

As for the government of Cuba after Castro passes, it's a good possibility that the US will directly involve itself in Cuba's foreign affairs, as well as the turn to democracy, though I'm not sure how the people of Cuba would react to it.

But judging by the way the U.S. has involved itself in almost every election or government change in South America, I'd vote they'll install one of their own into power. Raul is far too left to keep the power, he runs no middle ground. Castro has done a lot of good for his country, all be it there has been a lot of bad as well but if the U.S. would let up a bit on the embargos than much of their problems could at least be helped. I mean seriously folks, the embargos are childish really. The U.S. government was just angry that their hand picked Batista was ousted and that they couldn't vacation anymore in Cuba. Granted Castro was childish back. It was all a bunch of hogwash that should have been cleared up years ago. I dunno, maybe I'm just jaded and cynical.

But judging by the way the U.S. has involved itself in almost every election or government change in South America, I'd vote they'll install one of their own into power. Raul is far too left to keep the power, he runs no middle ground. Castro has done a lot of good for his country, all be it there has been a lot of bad as well but if the U.S. would let up a bit on the embargos than much of their problems could at least be helped. I mean seriously folks, the embargos are childish really. The U.S. government was just angry that their hand picked Batista was ousted and that they couldn't vacation anymore in Cuba. Granted Castro was childish back. It was all a bunch of hogwash that should have been cleared up years ago. I dunno, maybe I'm just jaded and cynical.

Ha, your exactly right about most of that.

Castro has done some good, but its nearing high time to end his career on a good point to. Though this seems unlikely so I have to go for when he dies.

Casto dies/killed/removed. US takes keen intrest on who has power, if they like they will remove the embargo and flood cuba with business deals and offers on the condition that they forget communism. Prompted by this and foreign markets, the new government opens itself up and experiences a massive boom. The old strong, but poor nation now becomes wealthy and powerful. Chances are the US will send billions in aid for X amount of years. Until Cuba becomes dependable and adopts its own system, but leaves communism behind.

Also I'd expect a left-wing government of the US to do this and maybe go as far as to apologize infront of the entire world for past events and in itself open up and lose the whole secrecy thing the US is notorious for.

Cuba could be an economic powderkeg if they adopt free market economics, but if they turn to more keynesian economics(which I have little doubt they will) their economy will end up as yet another Latin failure.

I'm sorry here but Keynesian economics is simply the old school style of economics when they assumed sticky prices, which are empirically relevant. A lot of economies fail not because of Keynesian economics but because they free up there countries to quickly and don't have the capacity to handle the global economic environment. Cuba can have the most involved socialist government it wants, but without Castro it will need help to sort out its institutional structure, as without that people wont have the appropriate incentives to give the country a strong economic base.

Keynesian economics is actually still followed in a lot of practical policy in the USA and my home country New Zealand so I wouldn't go throwing around the title of a rather broad school of thought to explain the possible problems for a newly democratic nation

in a multy choice poll,
if I had more options to offer,
even though 10 options are alot.

1. A military coup that leads
the nation towards democratic elections
and changes.


2. Fidel Castro's successors will rule
long term.

3. Anti government protests will lead
to democratic changes

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4. I see Cuba with A Capitalist economy
long term.

5. Cuba will have a Powerhouse economy
long term.

6. Cuba will have a Strong Economy
long term.

7. Cuba will have a Good economy
long term.

8. Cuba will have a Fair economy
long term.

9. Cuba will have a Poor economy
long term.

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10. Cuba will have a good size middle class
long term.

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11. I see Cuba with a mixed Socialist,
Capitalist economy long term.

12. I see Cuba with a Socialist economy
long term.

13. I see Cuba with a Socialist economy
short term.

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14. CUba's governing elite, part of new
rich capitalist class, not controlling
government.

15. Cuba's governing elite, part of new
rich Capitalist class, controlling government.

16. Castro's successors need some form
of international presure to democratise
political process.

It'll go quietly left-wing capitalist.