NationStates Jolt Archive

The 12-nation eurozone saw growth of just 0.3% in the three months to June, down from 0.5% the previous quarter, for an annual rate of 1.2%.

Germany was a key culprit, registering zero growth for the period.
http://newssearch.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?scope=newsifs&tab=news&q=leave+euro

Previously, we've heard members of the Italian government discussing leaving the Euro.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4615741.stm

Both Holland and France voted against the EU Consititution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4602229.stm

There is massive "cheating" by member nations for financial gain.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4639097.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4680747.stm

And the Euro has seemingly hit it's peak with the US Dollar, and seems to be on a slow climb back to 1-1 parity:
(Since 01.01.01 -- 1684 days):
Average:0.94321
High: 1.19770
Low: 0.73150
Today's: 0.808520

France's government has cut its own growth forecast for the year to 2% from 2.5%, and some analysts are saying that even that figure is too optimistic.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4630147.stm

The German unemployment rate is 11.8%.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4493119.stm

Please vote if you THINK it will survive, not just that you WANT it to. :)

the idea that the Euro will simply go away is insane, its growing across the world , its revaluing like nothing on earth and many nations now keep their forex reserves in Euros instead of USD, theres even talk of basing oil on euros because of the shameless manipulation of the USD by the Bush administration for politcal gain. This being the sort of thing that the MPC in the Uk helps to stop.

the idea that the Euro will simply go away is insane, its growing across the world , its revaluing like nothing on earth and many nations now keep their forex reserves in Euros instead of USD, theres even talk of basing oil on euros because of the shameless manipulation of the USD by the Bush administration for politcal gain. This being the sort of thing that the MPC in the Uk helps to stop.

So you don't think that the currency may be in trouble in the future, should the price of oil not drop and it's larger economies don't pick up speed? And, how much faith will the Euro engender if it fails to grow further?

For example, it is no secret that the larger economies (Germany, France & Italy) have (for the first time) very large elderly populations which they must sustain with all the services they provide. In the 60s, there were at least 10 German workers for each "pensioner". Today it's less than 5. It may be 1.5 in twenty years...

Can the Euro survive in that environment?

I'm quite sure that it will survive, but I am not a fan of it, so would not be displeased if I were proven wrong.

This is really silly. Why would the Euro die? All the currencies have FIXED EXCHANGE RATES anyway, so the only real difference is what the coins and bills look like and where you can use them. I've found it rather useful not to have to go to a bank every time I travel. The only ones that have called for going back to the original currency in their country so far have either been idiots or racists.

Friggen right the Euro will survive, the American dollar is more likely to crash before the euro ever will.
-Chris

I think that the Euro will survive because the individual nations of the EU recognize that as far as international trade is concerned, they will all do better together than they could possibly do separately. That's not to say that they'll unite under a single constitution anytime soon, but remember--it's taken literally decades for the European Common Market to transform into the EU. These things take time.

The US dollar won't crash because there is simply more economic growth and less stagnation.

If anything it is more stable then the euro.

Opposition in particular Italy is growing against the euro and as all the empty promises brought nothing except a slow economy. The euro most likely will not survive, and will be trashed.

I dont see why it shouldnt. Poor growth in the Eurozone is not really to do with the Euro. In fact Ireland (which has adopted the Euro) has one of the highest economic growth rates in Europe. The Euro is a respected currency which foreign nations are beginning to buy alongside and in some cases instead of dollars.

I do not know if the euro will survive, but i hope it does not. I am anti-EU, and believe that, if the EU does not cease to exist, european nations will lose their national sovereignty, which would be bad.

Euro != EU

The Euro has a higher chance of crumbling than the currency of any other major economy. There are some vast disparities in the fiscal policies of the EU membership. It is still a new currency and an untried model. I believe it will not be long before the more productive countries get tired of propping up the less productive nations. It is probable that when the first one cuts loose the rest will fall out like rats from a sinking ship. With the two major economies stuck in neutral the other nations are going to be considering all of their options carefully if things don't improve.

I don't see how the return of national currencies will help to stop Europe's economic problems. But I'm not an expert. I hope the Euro survives, even if only because it saves us from having to change currencies every time I visit other countries.

And the Euro has seemingly hit it's peak with the US Dollar, and seems to be on a slow climb back to 1-1 parity:
(Since 01.01.01 -- 1684 days):
Average:0.94321
High: 1.19770
Low: 0.73150
Today's: 0.808520

Err, thats recent? I hardly doubt it.

Today's:1.2434
High:1.3667

http://www.x-rates.com/

The Euro is doing fine against the Dollar.

I don't see how the return of national currencies will help to stop Europe's economic problems. But I'm not an expert. I hope the Euro survives, even if only because it saves us from having to change currencies every time I visit other countries.
That's precisely why I think it will survive. Systems of greater connectedness and higher communication rarely regress into systems of less connectedness and communication. There may be difficulties at first while everyone adjusts, but in the end, the greater complexity is generally beneficial. Businesses and multinationals want the Euro to survive and thrive because it simplifies their business model--they don't have to worry about currency exchanges and whether or not they're losing money on inventory from country to country. In the long run, this is going to work out for the EU as a whole, even if a few people are itchy right now.

This is really silly. Why would the Euro die?

Did you read any of the links I posted? The Euro has a lot going against it at this time, most notably very slow growth, citizens pissed off about higher prices, and high unemployment. Couple that with a government that has to translate amongst 25 languages (more or less) and is not Federal in nature, and I'm amazed it is working as well as it has. But then, it's still early. America's Articles of Confederation worked for awhile, too.

All the currencies have FIXED EXCHANGE RATES anyway, so the only real difference is what the coins and bills look like and where you can use them. I've found it rather useful not to have to go to a bank every time I travel. The only ones that have called for going back to the original currency in their country so far have either been idiots or racists.

So you're all for the merger of the USD & the Euro, right? ;)

Friggen right the Euro will survive, the American dollar is more likely to crash before the euro ever will.
-Chris

Given the world economy, the dollar crashing would take the Euro with it. It's possible for example, for Austria to re-introduce the Shilling or France the Franc. No one is going to accept a "New England New Dollar" or "Dixie Dollar".

Friggen right the Euro will survive, the American dollar is more likely to crash before the euro ever will.
-Chris

I'd have to disagree. The European economy is weaker on all fronts than the US, has stagnant population growth combined with an aging population, it's members are running huge deficits year after year, the costs of social welfare are becoming uncontrollable except through higer taxes (which just worsens the situation), and Europe isn't attracting new hiring from both international and national sources. Unless they change, they will collapse.

Err, thats recent? I hardly doubt it.

Today's:1.2434
High:1.3667

http://www.x-rates.com/

The Euro is doing fine against the Dollar.

:confused: Er? :confused: You're aware that we posted the same numbers, right? You're doing EUR to USD, I did USD to EUR.

Go to: http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory
(type in 01/01/01 to today)

If one does EUR to USD, one gets:
Today: 1.24680
Average (1685 days): 1.08363
High: 1.36670
Low: 0.83440

...look familiar? :D

Hmm, 25 yes, 3 nay, says enough. Nice anti EU try with this topic (again) btw. :rolleyes:
You can also ask: will the $ or the £ survive regarding the fact that even the oil will be paid in € in the future. Well that is what the producers want.

Are you talking about the Euro or the EU. Sorry, got confused with all the "translating into 25 languages" stuff. I don't think money needs translating. We all can understand when money talks - dirty commies as we may be. And that aging population thingy again... our population wouldn't be aging if we ditched the Euro..?

Hmm, 25 yes, 3 nay, says enough. Nice anti EU try with this topic (again) btw. :rolleyes:
You can also ask: will the $ or the £ survive regarding the fact that even the oil will be paid in € in the future. Well that is what the producers want.

Not for a while. The Euro has too much downside to it for commodities exporters to chain prices to it; they could lose a fortune if a nation backs out or the Eurozone economies sink in to recession from stagnation.

Are you talking about the Euro or the EU. Sorry, got confused with all the "translating into 25 languages" stuff. I don't think money needs translating. We all can understand when money talks - dirty commies as we may be. And that aging population thingy again... our population wouldn't be aging if we ditched the Euro..?

No, aging population down the economy and would be bad for any European currency; the Euro's only at risk because it's the currency at the time of the problem.

It will stick I'm sure of that. As long as America never switches over to it I couldn't care one way or another though.

No, aging population down the economy and would be bad for any European currency; the Euro's only at risk because it's the currency at the time of the problem.
A-ha. So no matter what we used as a currency, we are screwed. I thought you had issues with Euro.

*it's all right Euro, my precious, it wasn't personal - strokes a crispy 20 Euro note lovingly*

Are you talking about the Euro or the EU. Sorry, got confused with all the "translating into 25 languages" stuff. I don't think money needs translating. We all can understand when money talks - dirty commies as we may be. And that aging population thingy again... our population wouldn't be aging if we ditched the Euro..?

All of my points are that the EU is weaken in dealing with the Euro because, lacking a federal constitution, it has more hurdles to jump than the US (or Russia or Japan or... )

Yes, they will still be aging. But Brussels can't tell Berlin to cut back on entitlements, now can it?

Hmm, 25 yes, 3 nay, says enough. Nice anti EU try with this topic (again) btw. :rolleyes:
You can also ask: will the $ or the £ survive regarding the fact that even the oil will be paid in € in the future. Well that is what the producers want.

(If you cared to check, I'm not one of the No votes...)

Again? I wasn't aware I had a prior one... care to link? :p

Oil is but one commodity. If OPEC (which are NOT the only oil producers, BTW) want to adopt it for pricing, fine. The Euro has survived (and the pound, yen, and the rouble, et al) while it was the dollar, too.

What's the point? I'm asking about actual things that effect the Euro. You're pointing out something that has not only not yet happened, but is a change in counting methodology only.

All of my points are that the EU is weaken in dealing with the Euro because, lacking a federal constitution, it has more hurdles to jump than the US (or Russia or Japan or... )

Got that. I thought one of the fundamental principles of the Union - namely that of free movement of capital - was supposed to lower those hurdles, but I have been known to be wrong before.

I think that the Euro will survive because the individual nations of the EU recognize that as far as international trade is concerned, they will all do better together than they could possibly do separately. That's not to say that they'll unite under a single constitution anytime soon, but remember--it's taken literally decades for the European Common Market to transform into the EU. These things take time.

I agree. The EU just has too much potential for it not to work. The inevitable problems will simply be an incentive for the nations to make sensible legal and financial compromises and force it to work. The Euro will survive, but problems remain in the near-term.

1. It is extremely expensive to move your economy back to another currency, and Italy is in no state to afford it.

2. If the Euro isn't worth more than the Dollar anymore, then I applaud it because it gives our exporters better deals, and the Dollar was kept artificially low (for exactly that reason) during the past year or two anyways.

3. For the average person the Euro has brought, on the whole, much good. It is a lot easier to travel, and to shop internationally.

4. The people in Italy who actually ask for leaving the Euro are populists, who as always blame domestic trouble on someone else, in this case the Euro. No basis for it.

5. Slow economic growth (and it's not going to go like that forever) doesn't make a currency any less powerful, especially considering the huge amounts of money that US investors can make in Europe right now (Hedge Fonds anyone?).

6. Oh, and about Hedge Funds...Italy would be bloody well owned by them now if they hadn't had the Euro.

Unfortunately no, the Euro will not survive, but the reason it will not is not obvious. The euro is being sold as a stabilizing fixed-exchange-rate system, but what they don't tell you is that the world has seen them collapse time after time because by their very nature, they become the source of economic disruption. At some point, monitary authorities will be forced to defend fixed rates that do not reflect economic fundamentals. Once this occurs, the downward spiral begins to appear in other sector of the economy beside the foreign exchange, such as inflation and employment making collapse inevitable.

Did you read any of the links I posted? The Euro has a lot going against it at this time, most notably very slow growth, citizens pissed off about higher prices, and high unemployment. Couple that with a government that has to translate amongst 25 languages (more or less) and is not Federal in nature, and I'm amazed it is working as well as it has. But then, it's still early. America's Articles of Confederation worked for awhile, too.
You realise that the Euro is a currency, and the EU is a free trade organisation with a human rights agreement tacked on. EU != European Government, it doesnt regulate individual nations' fiscal policy and no one in the EU wants a Federal superstate.

Another thing, strong currency != strong economy. The yen is about 219 to the Pound Sterling, and yet Japan in the 2nd most powerful economy in the world. A depreciating exchange rate actually helps exports, and a growing exchange rate hurts them.

Did you read any of the links I posted? The Euro has a lot going against it at this time, most notably very slow growth, citizens pissed off about higher prices, and high unemployment. Couple that with a government that has to translate amongst 25 languages (more or less) and is not Federal in nature, and I'm amazed it is working as well as it has. But then, it's still early. America's Articles of Confederation worked for awhile, too. I have no clue why you think European economics has that much to do with the Euro. The high unemployment has little to do with the Euro, so does the slow growth (the only thing the Euro affects currently is EXPORTS, and Germany is doing well in those DESPITE the high Euro). The languages have NOTHING in the slightest to do with the Euro, especially the fact that not all EU countries have the Euro. You're confusing things, it seems.

So you're all for the merger of the USD & the Euro, right? ;)Please explain to me where I hinted anything of the sort.

:headbang: Unfortunally it will survive...

:headbang: Unfortunally it will survive...

I don't see the disadvantages... it made my life a whole lot easier.

:headbang: Unfortunally it will survive...And where, pray tell, are you from?

The European Union should be turned back into the European Common Market. That way we can stop Brussel's from interfering with national sovereignty.

Well personally I think its evil and just another tool the EU is using to bring us all under the control of a sprawling wasteful bureaucracy.

The European Union should be turned back into the European Common Market. That way we can stop Brussel's from interfering with national sovereignty.

No way.
The Common Market didn't allow people from all EU countries to work and reside in any member country they choose. I greatly appreciate that right and put it to good use.

The US dollar won't crash because there is simply more economic growth and less stagnation.

If anything it is more stable then the euro.

Opposition in particular Italy is growing against the euro and as all the empty promises brought nothing except a slow economy. The euro most likely will not survive, and will be trashed.
Economic growth or stagnation have no direct influence on the existence of a currency. Otherwise the Doller or Pound Sterling would long have vanished, during their countrie's times of economic depression.

Nowadays the value of a currency does not even reflect the states' economic situation, because currencies have become a commodity like any other - and are subject to intense speculations. Anyone remember the attacks on the Dollar and Pound in the past decade? Banks all aover the world had to work together in an effort to keep these currencies stable.

As to the Euro, it has a great asset, as it is independent of direct political influence. This is a legacy of the German Mark, as Germany would only agree to the Euro, if this kind of independence, which worked exceedingly well for the Mark, was taken on. The result is that a lot of countries, where the governments were used to manipulate the currency and interest rates for their own agendas, can't suddenly mask economic shortcomings, by changing interest rates. Thus the opposition of Berlusconi to the Euro. Both the Pound and the Dollar are under the direct or indirect but close influence of the respective governments.

Thirdly, to take a currency out of the Euro is not impossible, although this possibility has not been forseen and no provisions were made for such a case. It is not, however , expressedly forbidden in any contract. If a Euro-country were to decide to return it would not only mean going back to their own coins and notes but to completely leave the fixed Euro exchange system, which predates the Euro (as a common currency) by several years. The new (old) currency would then have to be judged by the country's economic performance, the trust bankers worldwide would have to have in the currency and speculation interests. In the current situation, practically all single European currencies would lose out. This climate might change, but the longer the Euro exists, the more difficult it would be to re-establish an independent currency. Also, this process would cost an enormous amount of money.

So, in short, leaving the Euro is not an option any country will seriously contemplate.

The European Union should be turned back into the European Common Market. That way we can stop Brussel's from interfering with national sovereignty.

Exactly. I refuse to acknowledge any authority shown by a group of people my nation did not elect. The EU is a disgrace.

The European Union should be turned back into the European Common Market. That way we can stop Brussel's from interfering with national sovereignty.No it shouldn't. :D

At a cursory glance, the euro is the same now as it was a couple of years ago:

£1 = 1.45530 Euro

Whereas the dollar has weakened significantly:

£1 = 1.81434

we don´t need the euro....lets change directly to the dollar....

we don´t need the euro....lets change directly to the dollar....
All I have to say to that is:
And where, pray tell, are you from?

Exactly. I refuse to acknowledge any authority shown by a group of people my nation did not elect. The EU is a disgrace.
Like the Queen and the other royals, for example?

And didn't you have the chance to vote for the European parliament? Weren't the British representatives in the different committees sent by your government which your nation selected by voting for it?

Back to the line and don't return unless you've got a valid argument (and there are some :) )

You realise that the Euro is a currency, and the EU is a free trade organisation with a human rights agreement tacked on. EU != European Government, it doesnt regulate individual nations' fiscal policy and no one in the EU wants a Federal superstate.

Yep.
No, it doesn't regulate the individual country's fiscal policies. And that's the reason why it's a problem.
How will the Euro cope with the "greying" of Germany in 10-15 years, when the number of workers supporting pensioners decreases massively? The US and Japan don't have the population graph that Western Europe does. US/Japan have more of a pyramid, with there being more young folks in the workplace. Places like Austria have an upside down pyramid, and even France is almost a "stick".
Consider that. The Euro is based on the performance of the member country's economies. EU nations have much more subsidization and benefits to their citizens to pay than either Japan or (even less!) the US. If the big economies are drowning in payouts, how can the Euro remain strong?

I disagree: you can't say no one. *Some* out there do, though I confess I have no idea what the % of the populace that might be. Maybe 10%; maybe more or less.

Another thing, strong currency != strong economy. The yen is about 219 to the Pound Sterling, and yet Japan in the 2nd most powerful economy in the world. A depreciating exchange rate actually helps exports, and a growing exchange rate hurts them.

The Yen, the Dollar, and every other currency I can think of are under the control of a federalized country. The Euro is not... and so it has weaknesses that are starting to appear, and IMHO will probably sharpen. It's simply not as agile a currency.

My prediction? Within 3 years, the Euro and the Dollar will be back at 1:1.

At a cursory glance, the euro is the same now as it was a couple of years ago:

£1 = 1.45530 Euro

Whereas the dollar has weakened significantly:

£1 = 1.81434

Um... I recall the Pound being at these levels, and higher ($2 to 1#) in the late 70s and early 80s...

Yep.
No, it doesn't regulate the individual country's fiscal policies. And that's the reason why it's a problem.
How will the Euro cope with the "greying" of Germany in 10-15 years, when the number of workers supporting pensioners decreases massively? The US and Japan don't have the population graph that Western Europe does. US/Japan have more of a pyramid, with there being more young folks in the workplace. Places like Austria have an upside down pyramid, and even France is almost a "stick".
Consider that. The Euro is based on the performance of the member country's economies. EU nations have much more subsidization and benefits to their citizens to pay than either Japan or (even less!) the US. If the big economies are drowning in payouts, how can the Euro remain strong?
Those are questions for individual national governments, not for the EU. As you say, they all have wildly different problems. There is no need for, nor is there any benefit in a centralised fiscal policy.

I disagree: you can't say no one. *Some* out there do, though I confess I have no idea what the % of the populace that might be. Maybe 10%; maybe more or less.
When you consider that several nations failed to ratify the EU Constitution which doesnt actually say very much, I dont think there's much chance of a superstate. A lot of nations arent even in the Euro yet.

The Yen, the Dollar, and every other currency I can think of are under the control of a federalized country.
How about the pound sterling?

The Euro is not... and so it has weaknesses that are starting to appear, and IMHO will probably sharpen. It's simply not as agile a currency.

My prediction? Within 3 years, the Euro and the Dollar will be back at 1:1.
Yes, again do you realise that the strength of a currency is largely irrelevent? Bigger != better.

I have no clue why you think European economics has that much to do with the Euro. The high unemployment has little to do with the Euro, so does the slow growth (the only thing the Euro affects currently is EXPORTS, and Germany is doing well in those DESPITE the high Euro). The languages have NOTHING in the slightest to do with the Euro, especially the fact that not all EU countries have the Euro. You're confusing things, it seems.

You're kidding right? Economics *governs* currency! If your country (or in this case, trade union) have economic problems, the currency declines.
Take the US for instance: cheap imports, an overheated housing market, more expensive fuel and low interest rates all combined to weaken the dollar, along with the initiatives of the governement. Even a cold winter effects the economy (and currency!).

I refered to the languages to point out an issue the EU has that Japan, the US, Russia et al do not: you need a consensus to do anything among disparate countries. Further, you have a lot more overhead in doing it. Not too many Polish to Portugese translators out there. :D

Please explain to me where I hinted anything of the sort.

Originally Posted by Laerod: (post #5)
"The only ones that have called for going back to the original currency in their country so far have either been idiots or racists."

So logically you should be all for an "Atlantic Dollar", combining the Euro with the American and Canadian currencies. Imagine how useful that would be!

Those are questions for individual national governments, not for the EU. As you say, they all have wildly different problems. There is no need for, nor is there any benefit in a centralised fiscal policy.

You're fooling yourself if you really don't believe the the Euro wouldn't be strengthened if the EU had a federal consititution. Imagine the economic jumpstart *alone* if the EU could standardize the workweek and pension benefits. We're talking billions of Euros every year just for the French to work 40 hours and the Germans to get a few Euros less entitlements. (Just examples... not to pick on any country specifically.)

When you consider that several nations failed to ratify the EU Constitution which doesnt actually say very much, I dont think there's much chance of a superstate. A lot of nations arent even in the Euro yet.


Two outright voted against it, because the Constitution proposed was a poorly written hack job. The UK refused to even vote. It went in to insane detail on farm subsidies, but failed utterly to set up even basic entities. How can one call Article I-22 even remotely logical? A 2.5 year Presidency? How would somebody get ANYTHING done?!?
I can read the American Constitution in one sitting. Ditto the Polish one. The EU takes longer than a Tolstoy novel!

How about the pound sterling?

How about it? As I understand it, the UK is a soverign country and doesn't rely on the Canadian economy to peg the pound. (Or vice versa... the entitlements of some pensioner in Glasgow don't effect the CAN$...)

Yes, again do you realise that the strength of a currency is largely irrelevent? Bigger != better. [/QUOTE]

I'm pointing out that I believe the Euro has crested and will now work it's way back to 1:1 parity. I'm also saying that I don't see it lasting in it's current form for more than a decade or so, as the strain of the member economies will bash it's value.

You're kidding right? Economics *governs* currency! If your country (or in this case, trade union) have economic problems, the currency declines.
Take the US for instance: cheap imports, an overheated housing market, more expensive fuel and low interest rates all combined to weaken the dollar, along with the initiatives of the governement. Even a cold winter effects the economy (and currency!).

But a weak currency also fosters export and thus the economy. In 2000 we had a very low Euro and a relatively well running economy here in Germany.

But a weak currency also fosters export and thus the economy. In 2000 we had a very low Euro and a relatively well running economy here in Germany.

It *can* foster exports. The US has made this move, but then screwed up and has to pay all these fines because of illegal tarrifs. It's not a 1-1 proposition.

2000 isn't the best gauge, IMHO. The world economy was running high at that point (recall the dot.com bubble?) and the Euro wasn't even in circulation. In spring 2001, I was still using Shillings in Vienna...

Yep.
No, it doesn't regulate the individual country's fiscal policies. And that's the reason why it's a problem.
How will the Euro cope with the "greying" of Germany in 10-15 years, when the number of workers supporting pensioners decreases massively? The US and Japan don't have the population graph that Western Europe does. US/Japan have more of a pyramid, with there being more young folks in the workplace. Places like Austria have an upside down pyramid, and even France is almost a "stick".
Consider that. The Euro is based on the performance of the member country's economies. EU nations have much more subsidization and benefits to their citizens to pay than either Japan or (even less!) the US. If the big economies are drowning in payouts, how can the Euro remain strong?

I disagree: you can't say no one. *Some* out there do, though I confess I have no idea what the % of the populace that might be. Maybe 10%; maybe more or less.



The Yen, the Dollar, and every other currency I can think of are under the control of a federalized country. The Euro is not... and so it has weaknesses that are starting to appear, and IMHO will probably sharpen. It's simply not as agile a currency.

My prediction? Within 3 years, the Euro and the Dollar will be back at 1:1.

My prediction: Within 5 years, the US economy will be crippled as a result of soaring oil prices. The US Fed will have been bankrupted. Transportation networks will be crippled as a result of permanent oil shortage.

The US economy is a house of cards, and everything's pointing to collapse.

There are alot of countrys getting to the UN and Poland got there last year and the Euro will survive.

I thought East Timor got to the UN last.

Yeah, I'm an ass...

My prediction: Within 5 years, the US economy will be crippled as a result of soaring oil prices. The US Fed will have been bankrupted. Transportation networks will be crippled as a result of permanent oil shortage.

The US economy is a house of cards, and everything's pointing to collapse.

*chuckle* Thanks for the laugh. :D

First, if the US collapses, the world is going with it.

Second, what do you see the price of oil being at in 5 years, and why woudn't that hurt China, Japan, the EU and everyone else?!?

Third, what's going to bankrupt the Fed? It only sets interest rates! :rolleyes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_reserve#Roles_and_responsibilities

Fourth, what networks? Most rail in the US is electric, and cities are starting to deploy hybrid taxis. Other than that, you have the US highway system and the airlines.

The fuel arguement is much worse for EU economies than the US, since most European countries tax the bejesus out of fuel... and how often does one see a tax recinded? :(

2000 isn't the best gauge, IMHO. The world economy was running high at that point (recall the dot.com bubble?) and the Euro wasn't even in circulation. In spring 2001, I was still using Shillings in Vienna...
The Euro wasn't in circulation as notes and coins, but the Euro has been the currency of the participating countries since 1 January 1999. So in effect the Euro has been in existence for over 6 years. So all those saying that the Euro will crumble within 5-10 years of its existence have only another 3 1/2 years for that to happen. I personally think that this is highly unlikely.

W€ll, I hat€ th€ €uro. I'm not being sarcastic, just having fun, I really do hate it, even if it is convenient.

America is the biggest user still and China's just signed some really important oil deal hasn't it, so it's less likely to have a problem...?

W€ll, I hat€ th€ €uro. I'm not being sarcastic, just having fun, I really do hate it, even if it is convenient.
Just out of interest; why? Why would someone hate something as mundane as money? Do you hate the idea it's used by all (the filthy whore theorem), or because it killed your beautiful national currency (the bitter revenge theorem)?

Well, living in Britain, it hasn't phased out my beautiful currency. I doubt it will any more after the German dislike and the Italian discussions.

I guess it is a tragic waste of hate, so I dislike it, I suppose. For "symbol of E.U. juggernaut" reasons.

Well, living in Britain, it hasn't phased out my beautiful currency. I doubt it will any more after the German dislike and the Italian discussions.

I guess it is a tragic waste of hate, so I dislike it, I suppose. For "symbol of E.U. juggernaut" reasons.German dislike? JSPR
The BILD doesn't speak for Germany, no matter how much it claims it does.

h€lp

I was referring to the German poll, in which 56% of people said they did not want it.

I was referring to the German poll, in which 56% of people said they did not want it.Source it.

Well, with a currency as old as the Pound, I can see why people are hesitant to switch to Euro. It's not that bad really, trust me. I far prefered the looks of Finnish Markka, but Euro is better in bed. You might be surprised... So I'll put you under 'bitter revenge' then?

I'm afraid Italian discussions won't change anything - they never do. German dislike might, although I have to say I have missed that completely (well, the Ossies are disliking everything, but they don't count, do they?).

Edit: hmmm... why was I posting under Great Void earlier there...?

HERE IT IS!!! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4082610.stm

It says under the photo of the €

Me thinks Laerod should watch the news more. :)

German dislike? JSPR
The BILD doesn't speak for Germany, no matter how much it claims it does.

Also, what does that actually mean?

HERE IT IS!!! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4082610.stm
Well, look at that. It really does say 56% of the Germans want the D-mark back. To be honest, I thought you said earlier that 56% didn't want it in the first place.

56%, hmmm. Another good point why representative democracy is good. "Never let the hoi polloi decide" is what I always say. ;)

That's why I don't have referendUMS in my countries on nationstates. Because I think that the hoi polloi are generally reactionary scummers, not because I like the euro.

Maybe I am one...?

Me thinks Laerod should watch the news more. :)

Wouldn't matter. In another thread, he's convinced that the EU is the reason why there has been peace in Europe since 1945. :rolleyes:

Maybe Germany not invading everyone is the reason for that?

Me thinks Laerod should watch the news more. :)Doesn't say who made the poll... ;)
On a side note, I watch the Tagesschau on a daily basis

Wouldn't matter. In another thread, he's convinced that the EU is the reason why there has been peace in Europe since 1945. :rolleyes:
Peace between France and Germany. ;)

It does say, Stern magazine.

Aah, Deutsche Lektions coming back to me.


The Euro will remain. It's much more stable then the dollar. Financial USA lives at the mercy of China.

Aah, Deutsche Lektions coming back to me.


The Euro will remain. It's much more stable then the dollar. Financial USA lives at the mercy of China.

Yeah, bloody Chinks :p

It does say, Stern magazine.No it doesn't. The article is about Stern. There's nothing about where the poll is from. All it says is "a recent poll".

Just as long as Britain keeps the pound, I'm not fussed.

Well, look at that. It really does say 56% of the Germans want the D-mark back. To be honest, I thought you said earlier that 56% didn't want it in the first place.

56%, hmmm. Another good point why representative democracy is good. "Never let the hoi polloi decide" is what I always say. ;)
Strange, in a recent Sueddeutsche Zeitung poll (that's one of the quality newspapers) it said that although 70% of Germans think that prices rose after the introduction, this is blamed mostly on the owners of shops. According to this poll 60% of Germans were in favour of the Euro, if you just count the below 50 ones this rises to nearly 80%.

I was personally against monetary union and the Euro, as I always thought that with the Mark we have the most stable currency in Europe, but I have to admit I like the Euro. Austria, Italy and France are not far away (and I can even use Euro in most parts of Switzerland), so the Euro makes my life much easier. But when we visit my in-laws in Britain, the whole exchange crap has to be gone trough.

Opinions change month to month, this article is a little bit old.

Opinions change month to month, this article is a little bit old.still doesn't state the source of the poll

Laerod, it was by Stern magazine http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/geldanlage/index.html?id=541210&q=560deutsche%20mark

Wouldn't matter. In another thread, he's convinced that the EU is the reason why there has been peace in Europe since 1945. :rolleyes:

err, surely the creation of organisations such as the EU, UN and NATO have been the main stabilising factors in Europe? I don't see where the argument is...

err, surely the creation of organisations such as the EU, UN and NATO have been the main stabilising factors in Europe? I don't see where the argument is...
Welcome to NS.

Should the euro survive? Most definitly. The euro is not to blame for Europe's slowdown, but individual governments. Some nations, like Spain and Ireland, are actually doing very well.
Will it survive? I don't think it will unless it is institutionalized by a constitution. Politicians of France, Germany, and Italy will try to shift blame from themselves, and find a scapegoat. They picked the euro. None of the big three are following the stability and growth pact, which basically makes fiscal policy in the eurozone a nightmare. I have even heard that many in Italy want a return to the lira. Imagine if that happens.

The Euro will remain. It's much more stable then the dollar. Financial USA lives at the mercy of China.
Well, the way economics has shown itself to work is that every economy is at the mercy of every other economy (the powerful ones atleast). The cascade effect of Japans economic issues spilled over into Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and was barely halted before impacting the US. Lets say that the US economy collapses. We are a nation that buys lots of things from China. Suddenly, China has lots to sell and no one to buy. Their economy collapses. Europe sells large ammounts to the US as well. Also, many US companies have branches in Europe. These failing would then drag down Europe. When one powerful economy fails, it has its impacts. It was said that if the US sneezes, the world gets the flu. Today it is more complex. If the US, EU (all the involved countries which I don't feel like listing right now), Japan, China, Australia, Korea, Brazil and to some extent Argentina collapse and proper reactions no put in place fast enough, the cascade will impact nearly everyone.

The Euro will remain. It's much more stable then the dollar. Financial USA lives at the mercy of China.
You got that the other way around. Financial USA is big in keeping China afloat. Consumer USA, on the other hand, is very dependent on China. Now, financial USA sees the dollar weakening. But remember, there are so many dollars out there, and China depends on the dollar, more than any currency, to survive. Until recently, the yuan was even dollar pegged.
The euro, so far, is an unwanted currency. It's only valuable because there are so few left, and as we saw, there was excess speculation anyhow. In any case, the euro doesn't need to be wanted. That's the job of European goods. Either situation is neither good nor bad, but rather, it is different. Ultimatly, currency means little, unless one is talking about inflation.

Just as long as Britain keeps the pound, I'm not fussed.


The British pound is such lovely money. :p