NationStates Jolt Archive


How dependent is the world on the US economy and export products?

Sumamba Buwhan
06-08-2005, 19:34
What would happen if the US economy collapsed for whatever reason? How would it effect other markets? What products could others in the rest of the world no longer get?
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 19:39
20% of the world's goods and services would vanish, trillions of dollars in expertise would vanish, the world's largest stock markets, corporations, and investments would vanish, demand for all commodities would plummet, the world financial system would collapse. Asia, Europe, and South America would collapse, Canada would be dead, and international corporations would collapse. The Internet would die I could go on for pages about its effects.

A permanent worldwide depression would occur, because the US economy drives the world economically, technologically, and industrially. We are the world's biggest banker, lender, borrower, consumer, and producer of goods.

Effectively, an almost endless world depression and Dark Age would occur.
Seosavists
06-08-2005, 19:43
The Internet would die I could go on for pages about its effects.

A permanent worldwide depression would occur, because the US economy drives the world economically, technologically, and industrially. We are the world's biggest banker, lender, borrower, consumer, and producer of goods.

Effectively, an almost endless world depression and Dark Age would occur.
The Internet wouldn't die! There probably would be a worldwide depression but defintely not permanent and there wouldn't be a dark age.


And there would be no products that the world could no longer get, that can't be gotten with a different brand name somewhere else or made somewhere else
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 19:49
The Internet wouldn't die! There probably would be a worldwide depression but defintely not permanent and there wouldn't be a dark age.

The United States is the modern Roman Empire; all powerful, technologically dominant, and the world's biggest economy. Rome was miniscule compared to the United States, and it's fall led to the Dark Ages. America's fall would lead to an even bigger one; there just wouldn't be the money to keep up research in other countries anymore. Our universities would be gone, with their quality disappeared as well.

The Internet would die; the US builds the overwhelming majority of software, hardware (like the servers to run it), hosts the most websites, and is the dominant producer, maintainer and layer of the fiber-optic cable worldwide.
US telecoms are gone, so maintenance is gone, and no more software is produced because the US tech industry is the main producer of Internet and general computer software. The Internet would stagnate and slowly die as lines were uprooted for copper, servers aged and failed, and the remaining software was used up.

But starting those facilities costs money, which comes from companies whose revenues are primarily from the US and its partners (who have long since collapsed); there wouldn't be the money nor the financial system to start new facilities.
LazyHippies
06-08-2005, 19:55
The US isnt important to the economy of the world because of its exports, its important because of its imports. The US is one of the greatest consumers in the world. Without US money buying up foreign goods, the global economy would collapse as well. There arent any products that would no longer be available, but the money no longer flowing from the US to buy foreign goods would be a big blow to the world economy.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 19:58
The US isnt important to the economy of the world because of its exports, its important because of its imports. The US is one of the greatest consumers in the world. Without US money buying up foreign goods, the global economy would collapse as well. There arent any products that would no longer be available, but the money no longer flowing from the US to buy foreign goods would be a big blow to the world economy.

We export the things that drive the new economy, like almost all of the world's software, computers, mobile phones, fiber-optics, and semiconductors. The primary export the world would lose, however, is our technological expertise.
Seosavists
06-08-2005, 19:59
The United States is the modern Roman Empire; all powerful, technologically dominant, and the world's biggest economy. Rome was miniscule compared to the United States, and it's fall led to the Dark Ages. America's fall would lead to an even bigger one; there just wouldn't be the money to keep up research in other countries anymore. Our universities would be gone, with their quality disappeared as well.

The Internet would die; the US builds the overwhelming majority of software, hardware (like the servers to run it), hosts the most websites, and is the dominant producer, maintainer and layer of the fiber-optic cable worldwide.
US telecoms are gone, so maintenance is gone, and no more software is produced because the US tech industry is the main producer of Internet and general computer software. The Internet would stagnate and slowly die as lines were uprooted for copper, servers aged and failed, and the remaining software was used up.

But starting those facilities costs money, which comes from companies whose revenues are primarily from the US and its partners (who have long since collapsed); there wouldn't be the money nor the financial system to start new facilities.
The roman empires fall led to the dark ages because it was all centralised in rome. Why would wires be uprooted for copper!? most copper doesn't come from the US. Why wouldn't there be money to research, there's plenty of money in Europe. Others can easily take there place because while you're the dominent in the things you mentioned you're not the only and without the competition from America the internet (and other things you stated) would leave a huge gap for the now relitively small companies to exploit and make themselves amazingly rich, thus helping get out of the depression caused by the american crash.
LazyHippies
06-08-2005, 20:02
The United States is the modern Roman Empire; all powerful, technologically dominant, and the world's biggest economy. Rome was miniscule compared to the United States, and it's fall led to the Dark Ages. America's fall would lead to an even bigger one; there just wouldn't be the money to keep up research in other countries anymore. Our universities would be gone, with their quality disappeared as well.

The Internet would die; the US builds the overwhelming majority of software, hardware (like the servers to run it), hosts the most websites, and is the dominant producer, maintainer and layer of the fiber-optic cable worldwide.
US telecoms are gone, so maintenance is gone, and no more software is produced because the US tech industry is the main producer of Internet and general computer software. The Internet would stagnate and slowly die as lines were uprooted for copper, servers aged and failed, and the remaining software was used up.

But starting those facilities costs money, which comes from companies whose revenues are primarily from the US and its partners (who have long since collapsed); there wouldn't be the money nor the financial system to start new facilities.


The question was what would happen if the US economy collapsed, not if the US were destroyed. The scenario you propose is an unrealistic view of what an economic collapse is all about. An economic collapse does not mean every corporation suddenly ceases to exist, every individual stops working, universities disappear, and all of those other doomsday scenarios you made up. Look at other nations that have had economic collapses for an idea of what a realistic economic collapse is all about. The US economy its self collapsed once in the last hundred years and it didnt resemble the doomsday scenario you mention.
Seosavists
06-08-2005, 20:02
We export the things that drive the new economy, like almost all of the world's software, computers, mobile phones, fiber-optics, and semiconductors. The primary export the world would lose, however, is our technological expertise.
but you aren't the only country making them. You can't even get mobile phones made in America in most places in Europe.(I think)
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:04
The question was what would happen if the US economy collapsed, not if the US were destroyed. The scenario you propose is an unrealistic view of what an economic collapse is all about. An economic collapse does not mean every corporation suddenly ceases to exist, every individual stops working, universities disappear, and all of those other doomsday scenarios you made up. Look at other nations that have had economic collapses for an idea of what a realistic economic collapse is all about. The US economy its self collapsed once in the last hundred years and it didnt resemble the doomsday scenario you mention.

Well, it was probably a miswording and misreading of the question; collapse implies total destruction to me. If it's only a US depression, then the effects would be much less severe, but still a worldwide depression would be in order.

This is more like the doomsday scenario of the total destruction of the US (by war, for example or total collapse)
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:06
but you aren't the only country making them. You can't even get mobile phones made in America in most places in Europe.(I think)

But we make the components for those phones, and supply much of the satellite and tower infrastructure for them. If the US totally collapses, these also collapse; after all, many companies run their networks from the US or Europe, and both would collapse if the US was destroyed.
CSW
06-08-2005, 20:07
Well, it was probably a miswording and misreading of the question; collapse implies total destruction to me. If it's only a US depression, then the effects would be much less severe, but still a worldwide depression would be in order.

This is more like the doomsday scenario of the total destruction of the US (by war, for example or total collapse)
The world economy would most likely take a drastic hit, for a bit anyway, until it begins to stabilize back out, most likely focused around the chinese/indians and the EU.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:09
The world economy would most likely take a drastic hit, for a bit anyway, until it begins to stabilize back out, most likely focused around the chinese/indians and the EU.

If there was only a depression things would eventually right themselves; if there was total obliteration, there would be no recovery for many years, even hundreds or thousands.

China, India, and the EU's economies are totally dependent on US purchases of their products and our investments in them. They would go down as bad or worse than us.
Seosavists
06-08-2005, 20:13
But we make the components for those phones, and supply much of the satellite and tower infrastructure for them. If the US totally collapses, these also collapse; after all, many companies run their networks from the US or Europe, and both would collapse if the US was destroyed.Again they are not the only companies, the towers wouldn't suddenly disappear and neither would the sattellites, they would be sold or in the case of complete destruction of the US they would be gotten for free. In Ireland we have no american networks and the towers wheren't set up by americans here at least.

I don't think the components are made in America.(not sure though but if you're going to make it that far away you might as well do it somewhere where it's cheaper.)
CSW
06-08-2005, 20:14
If there was only a depression things would eventually right themselves; if there was total obliteration, there would be no recovery for many years, even hundreds or thousands.

China, India, and the EU's economies are totally dependent on US purchases of their products and our investments in them. They would go down as bad or worse than us.
No, they wouldn't, and no, they aren't. The emerging markets would begin to take up slack, and things would start to normalize again after a few years or so. A thousand years is enough time to rebuild the unites states from the ground up at least 50 times.
Oxwana
06-08-2005, 20:14
20% of the world's goods and services would vanish, trillions of dollars in expertise would vanish, the world's largest stock markets, corporations, and investments would vanish, demand for all commodities would plummet, the world financial system would collapse. Asia, Europe, and South America would collapse, Canada would be dead, and international corporations would collapse. The Internet would die I could go on for pages about its effects.

A permanent worldwide depression would occur, because the US economy drives the world economically, technologically, and industrially. We are the world's biggest banker, lender, borrower, consumer, and producer of goods.

Effectively, an almost endless world depression and Dark Age would occur.Um, no.
It would shake things up, to be sure, if the US economy collapsed, but we'd survive. The world would adapt and move on. Canada would not be dead.
Seriously man, go soak your head.
LazyHippies
06-08-2005, 20:17
We export the things that drive the new economy, like almost all of the world's software, computers, mobile phones, fiber-optics, and semiconductors. The primary export the world would lose, however, is our technological expertise.

Actually, Finnish company Nokia is the leading mobile phone provider in the world. semi-conductors and computers are also produced in other parts of the world.

Something else to think about is that, if you have ever worked for a high technology company in the US, then you must have noticed the large number of foreign nationals employed by US companies. These people are in the US because they can make more money in the US than in their home country. Some go on to earn their citizenship, some do not. In any case, whether they became citizens or not, when the US economy collapses and they find themselves without a job, don't you think they will head back home, taking all their knowledge and experience with them?

There would certainly be a worldwide recession and in some areas a depression if the US economy collapsed. It would be exceedingly difficult to make up for the sudden loss of the world's biggest consumer. But the rest of the world would recover, it wouldnt lead to any dark ages.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:17
No, they wouldn't, and no, they aren't. The emerging markets would begin to take up slack, and things would start to normalize again after a few years or so. A thousand years is enough time to rebuild the unites states from the ground up at least 50 times.

Not if the US totally collapses. A total collapse means everything falls apart; the military might either dissolve or form in to bands of men defending groups of their families, with then end result being anarchy. The government doesn't exist, so infrastructure decays and our cities become unlivable. People would be reduced to survival.

Emerging markets are only emerging because of US and European investment; that growth isn't internal but is primed by foreign companies investing in these nations. With their money cut off, their economy grinds to a halt and reverses itself.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:19
Actually, Finnish company Nokia is the leading mobile phone provider in the world. semi-conductors and computers are also produced in other parts of the world.

Something else to think about is that, if you have ever worked for a high technology company in the US, then you must have noticed the large number of foreign nationals employed by US companies. These people are in the US because they can make more money in the US than in their home country. Some go on to earn their citizenship, some do not. In any case, whether they became citizens or not, when the US economy collapses and they find themselves without a job, don't you think they will head back home, taking all their knowledge and experience with them?

There would certainly be a worldwide recession and in some areas a depression if the US economy collapsed. It would be exceedingly difficult to make up for the sudden loss of the world's biggest consumer. But the rest of the world would recover, it wouldnt lead to any dark ages.

Yes, if there was only a depression. A total collapse would bring about a dark age, not just a simple economic depression. I'm talking about the total destruction of the United States, both economically and politically.
LazyHippies
06-08-2005, 20:20
Yes, if there was only a depression. A total collapse would bring about a dark age, not just a simple economic depression. I'm talking about the total destruction of the United States, both economically and politically.

then go start a thread about that.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:20
Um, no.
It would shake things up, to be sure, if the US economy collapsed, but we'd survive. The world would adapt and move on. Canada would not be dead.
Seriously man, go soak your head.

I'm talking about the total collapse of the US a la the Roman Empire's fall. The total destruction and downfall of everything, including our political system, economy, and culture.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:21
then go start a thread about that.

I would, but ever since I answered the first post thinking it was about that, I have had to respond to people who are confused about what was a mistake of interpretation on my part in the first place.
CSW
06-08-2005, 20:22
Not if the US totally collapses. A total collapse means everything falls apart; the military might either dissolve or form in to bands of men defending groups of their families, with then end result being anarchy. The government doesn't exist, so infrastructure decays and our cities become unlivable. People would be reduced to survival.

Emerging markets are only emerging because of US and European investment; that growth isn't internal but is primed by foreign companies investing in these nations. With their money cut off, their economy grinds to a halt and reverses itself.

So europe, china, and india are gone too? I think not. Emerging markets will continue to emerge, and the comment about 1,000 years being enough to rebuild the US over again 50 or so times was an example. 1,000 years is enough time for the economy to bounce back from anything. Even in the depths of the dark ages, the Muslims had a highly advanced society that was better then the Romans had.
Seosavists
06-08-2005, 20:23
I would, but ever since I answered the first post thinking it was about that, I have had to respond to people who are confused about what was a mistake of interpretation on my part in the first place.
I'm not confused about your mistake just so you know. :)
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:25
I'm not confused about your mistake just so you know. :)

Auugh! I made another mistake!

What I meant was "I would, but ever since I answered the first post thinking it was about that, I have had to respond to people who are responding to what was a mistake of interpretation on my part in the first place.
Oxwana
06-08-2005, 20:26
I'm talking about the total collapse of the US a la the Roman Empire's fall. The total destruction and downfall of everything, including our political system, economy, and culture.Canada would trade with other countries. Honestly we are dependent on you, but we could just as easily go elsewhere for the things that we import from the US, and for new markets for our goods.
Cpt_Cody
06-08-2005, 20:33
85.2% of Canada's exports go to the US (the next closests is Japan at 2%!) and 60% of its imports come from the US, according to the CIA world fact book. That would be a loss of well over 250 billion US$ in exports alone. If the US collapses, Canada is going to get pretty well screwed by it.
Vetalia
06-08-2005, 20:35
Canada would trade with other countries. Honestly we are dependent on you, but we could just as easily go elsewhere for the things that we import from the US, and for new markets for our goods.

But without a US, there would be no other markets to trade to, because everyone would be collapsed or collapsing.
Pantycellen
06-08-2005, 20:43
hello I live in britain

basicly the american economy is starting to slide towards collapse.

This isn't a rage against america as our economy is teetering as well.

Really if america goes so will everyone else but this isn't because america goes.

America has a relitivly robust economy so if it is in trouble then it means that conditions are bad for everyone.

I personally think that the world is sliding into recession just quite slowly

for example the collapse of economy's in asia and south america and the increasing rate of defenistration accross the world show that the less stable economys are crashing.

America as it is is being supported by countries such as china and us in Europe (we own large amounts of your assets its just not so noticible).

I think the recession will be worse in america than here in europe.

but it will be bad mainly because people are allready starting to question the value of things.

for example stocks have less value then they are being sold for because they are hyped.

also money is just paper in britain as we got rid of the gold standard.

This means our money is worth anything only because the government promises it is.

current governments in britain are keeping us from plunging over the edge at the moment

but this is unsustainable and we are starting to come down our economy is going to go through the floor soon as probibly everyone elses will.

it will be like the great depression but worse as food will still be expensive as most countries price fix.
JuNii
06-08-2005, 20:44
just think about the small depression that occured in the 80's. the world paused and held it's breath.

Should the US economy collapse totally, and all export stops, alot of smaller countries would also collapse and the larger ones would be thrown into chaos. I believe Japan's Economic troubles began with that micro Depression.

The US wheat belt feeds a sizable percentage of the world. alot of companies would collapse because they are heavily funded by US companies, on US Soil, or are invested and are being invested in US companies/properties.

all of the outsourced companies in other contries would face massive layoffs as US Companies would no longer pay for those services. The strain on other countries as people would travel to them for jobs will be felt.

Even if China, and the Euro were to help shore up the economy, there would be chaos until a standard is once more reconized.
Leonstein
07-08-2005, 01:46
The United States is the modern Roman Empire; all powerful, technologically dominant, and the world's biggest economy. Rome was miniscule compared to the United States, and it's fall led to the Dark Ages. America's fall would lead to an even bigger one; there just wouldn't be the money to keep up research in other countries anymore. Our universities would be gone, with their quality disappeared as well.
There were no other powers when Rome collapsed. There are now.
It would hurt, but both the EU and China have the potential to carry on after a while.
I think you're overestimating yourself quite a bit.
Vetalia
07-08-2005, 01:48
There were no other powers when Rome collapsed. There are now.
It would hurt, but both the EU and China have the potential to carry on after a while.
I think you're overestimating yourself quite a bit.

I was taking it to the "nuclear" scenario where the US literally collapses entirely, creating a huge power vacuum and economic devastation; a regular depression wouldn't be anywhere near that bad.
Leonstein
07-08-2005, 02:00
I was taking it to the "nuclear" scenario where the US literally collapses entirely, creating a huge power vacuum and economic devastation; a regular depression wouldn't be anywhere near that bad.
Like a big crater?

At any rate, the world is very interconnected these days, and if 250 million rich people suddenly disappear it would shake things up quite a bit.
But the same thing would happen if the EU, India or China would suddenly disappear, at least in a few years.
Currently much of the international financial markets still are very US-centric, that is obviously not gonna stay that way.
Vetalia
07-08-2005, 02:03
Like a big crater?

At any rate, the world is very interconnected these days, and if 250 million rich people suddenly disappear it would shake things up quite a bit.
But the same thing would happen if the EU, India or China would suddenly disappear, at least in a few years.
Currently much of the international financial markets still are very US-centric, that is obviously not gonna stay that way.

Something like that; whatever it is has to result in the collapse of the country, and a huge meteor would definitely work.

There would be even more problems afterwards; all of those US troops running amuck and unpaid.
Farmina
07-08-2005, 02:38
The main effect of a US collapse on world markets would be a confidence one. People would panic irrationally in fear of a coming recession, stop spending and cause a recession/depression. Can be dealt with if appropiate economic policy is used.

The export loss will be irrelevant; exchange rates will stabilise to counteract this, plus there will be less US imports.

There could be a real problem if the US is a major supplier of some raw material, but as far as I'm aware it isn't.