NationStates Jolt Archive


The doom of Apophis is due in 2012! Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide!

Eutrusca
04-08-2005, 15:13
COMMENTARY: So what do you think? Is Apophis our harbinger of doom, or just another rock that will miss us by a country mile? Interesting that it's due in 2012, which is when both the I Ching and the Myan Calendar run out.


Apophis and Us (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/04/opinion/04thu4.html?th&emc=th)


Published: August 4, 2005

While the shuttle is in space and our attention is tilted upward, it's worth thinking about what else is up there, especially an asteroid named 99942 Apophis. When this object - a little more than a thousand feet across - was first discovered last year, astronomers estimated that it had a distant chance of striking Earth in 2029. After closer observation, it seems likely that this asteroid will still pass very near our planet, but without striking it. There is still a possibility, however, that as it swings by it may hit a gravitational "keyhole," shifting its orbit far enough to make it strike Earth in 2036.

Beyond the question of whether Apophis deserves to be added to our regular list of doomsday worries, there's the practical matter of whether we can do anything about it. Hollywood heroics - trying to blast it out of the sky - might do more harm than good. NASA scientists think they have the technology to safely give it a nudge that might shift the orbit a few thousand feet. The trick is figuring out exactly when the asteroid will be in the exact place where such a modest bump would be effective.

One possibility is to put a radio beacon on the asteroid, as if it were a member of a wolf pack in Yellowstone. That would let astronomers refine their predictions of the asteroid's potential orbit when it next approaches Earth, in 2012-2013. Given NASA's recent success in firing a probe at the comet Temple I, planting a beacon on an asteroid seems doable.

You don't need to be a science-fiction writer to see a curious convergence here - the approach of a possibly Earthbound asteroid and the emergence of the scientific and technological capacity to cope with it. That, of course, is merely coincidence. Time will tell whether the risk from 99942 Apophis increases or whether it diminishes naturally, its orbit deforming away from harm, in ways that are well within the realm of probability.
Fass
04-08-2005, 15:20
The possible strike event isn't due in 2012. *yawn*
Lovfro
04-08-2005, 15:23
2012? That's the year the Mayan Calendar ends (http://www.lost-civilizations.net/data/mayan-calendar-prophecies/mayan_20calendar_202012.html). Coincidence? I think not.

WE ARE ALL DOOMED!!! :D
Jeruselem
04-08-2005, 15:24
From Wikipedia

99942 Apophis is a Near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. However, additional observations provided improved predictions that essentially eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029, although future impacts are still possible.

When first discovered, the object received the provisional designation 2004 MN4 (sometimes written 2004 MN4), and news and scientific articles about it referred to it by that name. When its orbit was sufficiently well calculated it received the permanent number 99942 (on June 24, 2005), the first ever numbered asteroid with Earth impact solutions. Receiving a permanent number made it eligible for naming, and it promptly received the name "Apophis" as of July 19, 2005. Apophis is the Greek name of the Ancient Egyptian god Apep, "the Destroyer", who dwells in the eternal darkness of the Duat (underworld) and tries to destroy the Sun during its nightly passage.

Apophis is expected to come close enough that on April 13, 2029 (Friday the 13th) it will become as bright as magnitude 3.3 (easily visible to the naked eye). This close approach will be visible from Europe, Africa, and western Asia. Throughout recorded history, no other closely approaching objects of this size have been visible to the naked eye. As a result of its close passage, it will move from the Aten (see below) to the Apollo class.

Apophis remains at level one on the Torino scale because of very low but non-zero probability of impact on approaches in 2035, 2036 and 2037. However, the approach in 2029 will substantially alter the object's orbit, making predictions uncertain without more data. "If we get radar ranging in 2013 [the next good opportunity], we should be able to predict the location of 2004 MN4 out to at least 2070." said Jon Giorgini of JPL [1].

In July 2005, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, as chairman of the B612 Foundation, formally asked NASA to investigate the possibility that the asteroid might pass through a gravitational keyhole and become more dangerous. He also asked for an investigation of the necessity of placing a transponder on the asteroid for more accurate tracking.[2]

PS - 99942 - flip the first three characters around.
Jeruselem
04-08-2005, 15:37
Oh yes, according NASA's own orbit simulation system
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=99942&group=all

Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) comes within 0.0919 AU or 13,748,044 km to Earth. Date is Jan 6, 2013.

On April 14, 2029. It's 0.0097 AU.
Druidville
04-08-2005, 15:42
You know, there's going to be a lot of people looking silly when 2014 rolls around and we're all in one piece.

Begging for oil, but in one piece.
German Nightmare
04-08-2005, 15:51
2012? That's the year the Mayan Calendar ends (http://www.lost-civilizations.net/data/mayan-calendar-prophecies/mayan_20calendar_202012.html). Coincidence? I think not.

WE ARE ALL DOOMED!!! :D

That's the first thing that came to my mind - well except for the "all doomed" part. :D
Seosavists
04-08-2005, 16:11
orders looting kit
Eutrusca
04-08-2005, 16:14
The possible strike event isn't due in 2012. *yawn*
Good morning, Fass, you dweeb. Just a suggestion, but ...













You might want to actually read the friggin' article!
OHidunno
04-08-2005, 16:22
I watched this 5 minute thingy the other day, Adi in Space, and it said the astroid will come close but not necessarily hit, and if it does enter the atmosphere, by then we will, hopefully, have the means to protect us from it. That was a really long sentance.
Syniks
04-08-2005, 16:23
COMMENTARY: So what do you think? Is Apophis our harbinger of doom, or just another rock that will miss us by a country mile? Interesting that it's due in 2012, which is when both the I Ching and the Myan Calendar run out.
All I can say is...

RagnaROCK and Roll Baby! :D
Fass
04-08-2005, 16:25
Good morning, Fass, you dweeb.

It's evening in Europe.

Just a suggestion, but ...
You might want to actually read the friggin' article! annoying formatting removed)

Oh, but I have, and the strike event still doesn't happen in 2012. It will get close to Earth then, yes, but it won't strike it then:

"was first discovered last year, astronomers estimated that it had a distant chance of striking Earth in 2029. After closer observation, it seems likely that this asteroid will still pass very near our planet, but without striking it. There is still a possibility, however, that as it swings by it may hit a gravitational "keyhole," shifting its orbit far enough to make it strike Earth in 2036.

Beyond the question of whether Apophis deserves to be added to our regular list of doomsday worries, there's the practical matter of whether we can do anything about it. Hollywood heroics - trying to blast it out of the sky - might do more harm than good. NASA scientists think they have the technology to safely give it a nudge that might shift the orbit a few thousand feet. The trick is figuring out exactly when the asteroid will be in the exact place where such a modest bump would be effective.

One possibility is to put a radio beacon on the asteroid, as if it were a member of a wolf pack in Yellowstone. That would let astronomers refine their predictions of the asteroid's potential orbit when it next approaches Earth, in 2012-2013. Given NASA's recent success in firing a probe at the comet Temple I, planting a beacon on an asteroid seems doable."

Now, really, Eutrusca, this is not the first time you seem to have omitted reading your own article. Why don't you start doing that, before accusing others of similar transgressions, hmm? Your reputation is starting to suffer.
Greedy Pig
04-08-2005, 16:28
No it's not. While it heads towards earth, I'll dodge it with my quick reflexes, and it'll flyby and hit the neighbours stupid dog! Muahahahah.
The Czardaian envoy
04-08-2005, 16:43
No it's not. While it heads towards earth, I'll dodge it with my quick reflexes, and it'll flyby and hit the neighbours stupid dog! Muahahahah.
LMAO. ;)