NationStates Jolt Archive

Well, the time is coming closer.

After Chancellour Schröder has been under fire for years for his more free-market reforms (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenda_2010), he's thrown in the towel.

Claiming that he didn't have a stable majority in the parliament anymore (a questionable claim), he asked the President to dissolve parliament to allow for new elections.
While the constitutional legality of it is apparently still under fire, the elections have been set for the 17th (?) September. I registered for the letter vote.

So now the situtation is this:
The SPD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPD) and the Greens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Green_Party) were in Government, but are now set to lose.
Against them stand the CDU/CSU (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU) and the FDP (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Democratic_Party_of_Germany), who are likely to form a coalition if they haven't already.
A new party has also been founded by more radical left-wingers, drop-outs from the SPD as well as the PDS, who formed a new alliance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Party_of_the_Left.) intent on stopping the reforms. For the first time since reunification, those radical leftists are set to actually get a good result. That's what "the good old days" will do to a voting public, coupled with a bit of good old populism.

Who would you vote for? Why?
And more importantly, what should the SPD now do to remain in power? Should they even try, or should they do what the CDU has done for years, and simply profit from the bad situation without ever offering an alternative?

And now I read that the SPD and the Greens are starting to criticise their own Agenda 2010 in an effort to differentiate themselves more from its unpopularity. WTF?
Sorry, this link is only in German: http://www.zeit.de/2005/27/neue_Linke

Um, I actually think Schroder was onto something with the 2010 reforms... they need to reform their market.. and those reforms looked fine to me. That new party doesn't know what they are doing.. look.. reform or slowly feel the crunch of economic and social pressures. Do you agree?

Um, I actually think Schroder was onto something with the 2010 reforms... they need to reform their market.. and those reforms looked fine to me. That new party doesn't know what they are doing.. look.. reform or slowly feel the crunch of economic and social pressures. Do you agree?
I do very much.
For me personally right now the question is:
SPD or even CDU?
One time I'm thinking that with the (understandable) trouble the SPD is having with itself, afterall they have been a worker's party for more than a hundred years, is not good for the nation, and that the CDU would have less trouble doing what needs to be done.
But then I hear what some of the CDU (and especially FDP) figures say, and think: America or Scandinavia? And then I'd rather vote for the SPD.

I do very much.
For me personally right now the question is:
SPD or even CDU?
One time I'm thinking that with the (understandable) trouble the SPD is having with itself, afterall they have been a worker's party for more than a hundred years, is not good for the nation, and that the CDU would have less trouble doing what needs to be done.
But then I hear what some of the CDU (and especially FDP) figures say, and think: America or Scandinavia? And then I'd rather vote for the SPD.

Well I'd much rather want the conservatives to win (CDU right? Christian Democrats?)... I'm against worker parties for the most part because they don't do a good job with the economy.

Well I'd much rather want the conservatives to win (CDU right? Christian Democrats?)... I'm against worker parties for the most part because they don't do a good job with the economy.
Links to all the parties are included in my original post.
I vehemently disagree with most of the CDU's social policies though, from gay rights to stem cells.
And BTW: Mark my words, the CDU has it's own schism coming along, once they are in power and stem cell research comes up...

...
But then I hear what some of the CDU (and especially FDP) figures say, and think: America or Scandinavia? And then I'd rather vote for the SPD.
What does the CDU/CSU bloc propose in its programme?

Links to all the parties are included in my original post.
I vehemently disagree with most of the CDU's social policies though, from gay rights to stem cells.
And BTW: Mark my words, the CDU has it's own schism coming along, once they are in power and stem cell research comes up...

Well I need to investigate more into it.. by looking at it.. it does seem a bit religious of a party.. but still..

In my pessimistic opinion, it is either good economic policies with the CDU.. and social policies I don't agree with either.. or ineffective government with the fractured SPD.... tough choice.

What does the CDU/CSU bloc propose in its programme?
Do you speak any German?
If you do, here's their program in full: http://www.regierungsprogramm.cdu.de/download/regierungsprogramm-05-09-cducsu.pdf

The gist of it is:
Jobs! Jobs! And some more Jobs while we're at it. How?
Cut Regulations.
Cutting the non-wage labour costs, ie insurances etc
Cutting Income Tax to 12% at the lowest level and 39% at the highest
Cutting Taxes on Business even further (they're already lower than in the US)
Other taxes will be raised though, and many excemptions eliminated, such that the income of the state doesn't change. Germany has too great a deficit right now.
etc etc

The SPD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPD) and the Greens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Green_Party) were in Government, but are now set to lose.
Hopefully, they will. It was quite a disturbing alliance anyway. When you mix red with green, you all too often get brown, if you get my drift ;)

Hopefully, they will. It was quite a disturbing alliance anyway. When you mix red with green, you all too often get brown, if you get my drift ;)
We've already got a pile of Brown Stuff (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Party_of_Germany_%28NPD%29) , but it's not set to do anything great.
All of the disaffected protest votes will be picked up by that new leftist alliance now.

Do you speak any German?
...
No... :(
The gist of it is:

Jobs! Jobs! And some more Jobs while we're at it. How?
Cut Regulations.
Cutting the non-wage labour costs, ie insurances etc
Cutting Income Tax to 12% at the lowest level and 39% at the highest
Cutting Taxes on Business even further (they're already lower than in the US)
Other taxes will be raised though, and many excemptions eliminated, such that the income of the state doesn't change. Germany has too great a deficit right now.
etc etc
So they are supporting economic reforms that are much more radical than proposed by Schröder? And the Chancellor's suggestions were quite unpopular, judging by the SPD election loss in North Rhine-Westphalia.. So why then the CDU/CSU is in the lead?

So they are supporting economic reforms that are much more radical than proposed by Schröder? And the Chancellor's suggestions were quite unpopular, judging by the SPD election loss in North Rhine-Westphalia.. So why then the CDU/CSU is in the lead?

Maybe people want better, more far reaching reforms? I'm not sure..

So they are supporting economic reforms that are much more radical than proposed by Schröder? And the Chancellor's suggestions were quite unpopular, judging by the SPD election loss in North Rhine-Westphalia.. So why then the CDU/CSU is in the lead?
It's strange, ain't it?
I reckon somewhere deep in their minds the people all know it can't go on as it did. Problem is however that Schröder's reforms, although good ideas, take a long time to do anything. So the problems have been going on.
Maybe those people think that the CDU could do it faster?

Who would you vote for? Why?
And more importantly, what should the SPD now do to remain in power?

Well, I can't tell you what I'm going to vote on Sep. 18, but I can tell you what I'm NOT going to vote for: SPD, CDU, Greens, FDP and the new old left party. And not the National Democrats.

I trust no party to form a successful government. It would be logically that CDU and FDP build a coalition because then the Bundesrat (second chamber) couldn't block the governments ideas. But I trust nothing in Angela Merkel, the probable future chancellor. I have met her in a small circle - she even didn't know in what federal state of Germany she was! And she has no experience in government, she never was prime minister (like Schröder or Kohl) of a federal state or mayor of a big city (like Adenauer).

SPD: No! The social reforms were completely unsocial, they don't deserve to call themselves social democrats.

CDU: No! No clear program, no good persons.

FDP: Their leader is a bad joke, they describe themselves as the party of the better of, I'm not liberal - NO!

Greens: The last party I would give my vote! Here in the north they were in power ten years. If you like ecologic bureaucracy that is interested nothing in the people, combined with total hedonism, elect them - I will never.

Left: Sorry, I'm no communist or socialist.


I think CDU and FDP will get the majority, but Angela Merkel will not be chancellor at the end of the election period.

I'm more inclined to support the CDU and FDP.. for economic policies.. but it just seems you guys in Germany don't have much of a good selection there...

SPD: No! The social reforms were completely unsocial, they don't deserve to call themselves social democrats.
Sozial ist was Arbeit schafft.
As much as I hate it, the CDU is right on that.

I think CDU and FDP will get the majority, but Angela Merkel will not be chancellor at the end of the election period.
What do you think will happen?
If we have another Chancellour giving up, then that is the first time that the Federal Republic is actually in danger of falling. And last time that didn't lead us to a very nice place.

And last time that didn't lead us to a very nice place.

Correct me if I'm wrong.. but the result was Hitler right?

Correct me if I'm wrong.. but the result was Hitler right?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic
That is the tragic story of the first Democracy in Germany. I always rejected the notion that we have parallels now with then, but if it gets much worse...who knows?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic
That is the tragic story of the first Democracy in Germany. I always rejected the notion that we have parallels now with then, but if it gets much worse...who knows?

Yes I know about the Weimar Republic... and I surely hope there is not another Hitler.. I don't think there will be... Germany isn't in depression... it is in a bit of a recession.. but it isn't as bad as it was in the 30s.

Um, I actually think Schroder was onto something with the 2010 reforms... they need to reform their market.. and those reforms looked fine to me. That new party doesn't know what they are doing.. look.. reform or slowly feel the crunch of economic and social pressures. Do you agree?

Your absolutely right. But his reforms has to be watered down too much to get the necessary consent. Hopefully Merkel will try and push through decisive reforms.

I may be back later tonight, otherwise only tomorrow.

Don't let this thread die before the sun goes up in Germany, okay?

The one thing I'm really looking forward to see is Frau Merkel being ripped apart by Kanzler Schröder in the television debate. No wonder she only agreed on one debate :D

The problem is that the current government has already done a lot for the industry to create jobs - they just don't do it. The government can't create jobs - that's just not the way it works. (Except for brownnosing Merkel who'll probably boost economy by joining wars around the globe).

I believe it breaks down to this:

SPD/Grüne make good policies but don't know how to sell them (and yes, they do take time to work).

CDU-CSU/FDP know how to sell stuff but what they're trying to establish is more than questionable, IMHO.

Anyway, my votes will go to the SPD and the Green party again - I definitely can't and won't vote for the conservatives or the liberals. (And neither extremes are an option, those neonazis or leftists are no alternative!)

I believe it is time for the big parties to live up to their responsibility and work together for the good of the Fatherland. I do not favor a grand coalition and really hope that it's not gonna happen. Well, miracles do happen and I keep my fingers crossed and hope that people will make their crosses on the ballots accordingly.

First of all, I think that all fears of the Federal Republic of Germany going along the path of the Weimarer Republic, just because Schroeder decided to dissolve parliament are unfounded. There is no overall depression like then, the whole political spectrum isn't as fragmented as then and the overall majority of Germans want stability over anything else (which is, in fact, one of the current problems). I think that the way Schroeder dissolved parliament was wrong, but I'm not opposed to a government having the chance to do so in clearly defined circumstances. A change in our constitution would be in order, I think.

Concerning the actual topic, I'm facing a big dilemma: I'm a liberal, but there is no real liberal party in Germany - the FDP being liberal in name only. I would not like to vote for the following parties, because:

SPD - they made a big mess of it all, not because they didn't have good ideas, but because necessary reforms went right against the wishes of their key clientele, so they had to water it down again, again and again and still it split the party. I see no way, how that would change, would they remain in power. Also, the minister of the interior Schily, a lawyer formerly defending left wing terrorists, has turned so far right wing it's frightening. He seized the aftermath of 9/11 as a chance to continually errode citizens' freedoms.

CDU/CSU - they have absolutely no clue what they want to do exactly, once they are in power. They have noone who is a specialist in economics (the only one who was doesn't want the job, as he and Merkel don't get along). All their ideas of how to reduce unemployment and strengthen the economy are either nicked from the SPD (thus having been prooven as unpopular and not really effective) or are from their programmes from when they were last in power (and they didn't work then). Also I really dislike Merkel, the candidate for chancellor (not as much as Steuber the last time, but still).

Green Party - excellent minister for foreign affairs, but as a coalition partner generally too soft. Most of their good ideas were crushed or watered down by the SPD, while their bad ideas were given enough rope so they could hang themselves.

FDP - used to be liberal, but there are hardly any real liberals left in that party. Programme consists now of economically liberal ideas, very right wing leaning tendencies and hot air.

WASG/PDS - the ragbag for all disgruntled Germany led by two publicity seeking egomaniacs. No real (in the sense of affordable) policies. Will probably get around 10% of votes but disintegrate within the next 5 years due to internal squabbling. Oh, lest people forget, the greater part of this party (PDS) was the successor to the ruling party in East Germany.

NPD and other right wing nonsense - I can't vote for a party where the collective IQ is less than that of my breakfast cereal (as can be observed in the governments of east German federal states, of some of which they are members.

So, what shall I do? I did several tests on the internet and my agreement to official party politics as described in the election programmes (which , of course vary from the real politics) are:
Green: 49%
SPD: 31%
FDP: 28%
CDU/CSU: 25%
WASG/PDS: 3%
NPD: none
(it adds up tp more than 100% because some policies are in the programmes of more than one party)
This actually mirrors my feelings towards these parties pretty well.

My guess is that there'll be a great coalition between SPD and CDU/CSU

What should have happened, was a great coalition immediately after reunification to really get to the problems caused by it. Most of our economic problems stem from the unification which still costs billions of euros. Then was the time to properly do it, but that chance passed (although I don't know if they'd been more successful).

I hate German politics -rant over!

I'm more inclined to support the CDU and FDP.. for economic policies.. but it just seems you guys in Germany don't have much of a good selection there...
Agreed, except I would definitely not vote CDP. Something creepy about a party with a religion in the name.
A question. Could an independent run for office in Germany?

A question. Could an independent run for office in Germany?
Yes, that is possible. We have proportional representation, with about half the MPs being directly voted in by winning the seats of the constituencies. This is also the only way to get in, if a party wins less than 5% of the overal votes.
Example (if I remember correctly):
In the last election, the PDS failed to get 5% of the votes and thus didn't get into parliament as a party. They did win 2 (or 3) direct mandates (i.e. constituency seats), so these people got into parliament, but didn't get the status as a parliament party. This means that for parliament committees in which all parties take part, they would not be allowed in.

It is not usual for people to win seats independently and practically never happens (the only example I know is the PDS one - and they weren't running independently as such, just got into parliament independently of their party).

I dont think the president had any other option.

you guys in Germany don't have much of a good selection there...

This is politics, when is there ever a good selection? A bunch of scoundrels.

it just seems you guys in Germany don't have much of a good selection there...

A very short and very good analysis.... ;-)

Sozial ist was Arbeit schafft.
As much as I hate it, the CDU is right on that.

Well, I continue in English, it's maybe more polite to users out of Germany. I agree with you - but did the SPD do that? The main aspect of the reforms was not to cut bureaucracy, to make it more easy to establish new businesses - all the debates we have had were like as if we had millions of free jobs and the unemployed just needed a push to take one.


What do you think will happen?
If we have another Chancellour giving up, then that is the first time that the Federal Republic is actually in danger of falling. And last time that didn't lead us to a very nice place.

I expect we'll have many discussions about new reforms between CDU, CSU (not to forget) and FDP. I expect the general situation will not change. Then I expect the CDU will lose elections in the federal states, but the SPD - as a weak, self-interested opposition party - will not be able to profit as the CDU did in the last years; maybe on the short way the rightwings win, maybe even new parties. I think Angela Merkel will resign after 2-3 years.

I don't think we're really in danger that 1933 happens again. Our state has more stability, no Hitler is in sight, not even a Haider. Our system is not in danger because extremist parties, it is in danger because the people are tired to take part in democracy. CDU and SPD will not lose their voters to NPD and PDS, they will lose them to lethargy.
IF really our party system comes into a big crisis, I expect more phenomenons like in Italy ten years ago.

Agreed, except I would definitely not vote CDP. Something creepy about a party with a religion in the name.
A question. Could an independent run for office in Germany?

You can be sure, the CDU is no religious party ;-) Christian Democracy is only one part of modern conservatism. But the CDU is not even a conservative party.

But the CDU is not even a conservative party.
It's not as conservative as for example the Republicans in the US, but it still is pretty conservative overall.

Actually, if I could do one thing to Germany, I would kick every consumer in the butt. Send them out there to buy stuff.
They don't buy stuff because they are unhappy because the economy doesn't work because businesses don't do well because people don't buy stuff.
Stupid People.

There still is a lot of red tape, but businesses as a whole have been doing very well. And the Export Figures are huge. If people would start buying stuff again then we'd see the entrepreneurs being confident again and employ people.

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I think we all know where my vote is going.

-Psst: CDU

Where do you live then?

Well I should say would go to, as I'm not really from Germany.

I have quite a bit of family in Bavaria though, and they always vote CDU.

I have quite a bit of family in Bavaria though, and they always vote CDU.
Okay. But they can only vote CSU in Germany, not CDU.
Bavarians are strange...

I thought the CDU/CSU was one party?

Edit: Nevermind, I read the wikipedia page. Why don't they just change their name to CDU for convenience?

I mean, they have to change that one letter on ALL of their ads.

I went to Bavaria once to see my family, Augsburg, it was pretty nice.

Why don't they just change their name to CDU for convenience?
As I said: Bavarians are strange...

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So they are supporting economic reforms that are much more radical than proposed by Schröder? And the Chancellor's suggestions were quite unpopular, judging by the SPD election loss in North Rhine-Westphalia.. So why then the CDU/CSU is in the lead?

Because the average voter is as drunk and stupid as ever.

The government's Agenda 2010 reforms have vastly improved the strength of the German economy. Export almost doubled, making Germany the leading (with a hughe lead) trade nation on this planet. Hughe tax cuts have been granted to the middle class and corporations, support for families and unemployed was fixed with either more support of more financial support.

A lot of people don't realize it. They're shocked by the hughe number of unemployed people and scared to spend their cash.

Lets face it. The times of full employment are over and a large proportion of the people unemployed are either too old to get hired OR they lack education and training. And some of them just like to mooch of their basic living stipend.

I'm a bit of a lefty myself and Agenda 2010 did hurt my large social democratic heart, but I also know my realpolitik. If you ask me: The "Agenda" is the best way to get this great nation back on it's strong feet again. Sure, we'll need to make a few cuts in welfare and worker's rights, but the muscle and the bone of the welfare state we so proudly built is still there, we just cut off the fat.

The current government did the right thing. A government must not waiver once it has chosen it's course. It must not look to the left or right but go forward.

I thought the CDU/CSU was one party?

Edit: Nevermind, I read the wikipedia page. Why don't they just change their name to CDU for convenience?

I mean, they have to change that one letter on ALL of their ads.
There are quite a few differences between CDU and CSU, sometimes more, sometimes less. When there are more, usually the idea pops up to expand the CSU to the rest of Germany. That idea is usually put to rest as soon as they realise that:
- the further north you go, the less positively the CSU is seen
- the CDU would in return expand to Bavaria, which is seen as a great danger

The biggest differences are:
The CSU tends to be a lot more conservative in terms of traditional values
The CSU tends to have a more socially minded outlook on the whole welfare, health, etc. area of government
The CSU is tends to have a more liberal approach to economic questions, while trying to keep the effects as socially acceptable as possible
The CSU, especially in rural areas, is strongly rooted in a Bavarian/Christian (i.e. Catholicism) environment, although it is in no way a catholic party.
The CSU is in fact a true Bavarian Party, rooted deep in Bavarian traditions and values, very insular ... This led to the CSU having ruled in Bavaria from 1946 until now, with the exception of 1954-1957, ever since 1962 with over 50% of the votes, after the last election they have been able to rule with a 2/3 majority. This is normally unknown in Germany. The Bavarian constitution (which is a bit older than the German constitution) gives Bavarian citizens greater political participation - it is possible to have a referendum, and if the Bavarian constitution should be changed (for which a 2/3 majority is needed), this has to be agreed on by a referendum as well - so Steuber, the current premier can't completely do what he wants.

The downside of this continuous one party rule is that the CSU is eternally embroiled in infights, intrigues and (corruption) scandals, some bigger some smaller. And yet people continue to vote for them in droves - amazing.

One reason for its success (apart from the aforementioned deep-rootedness in Bavarian culture) is that it stands for a lot of social issues, which are in the SPD domain in the rest of Germany, a lot of economic issues, which are in the FDP domain in the rest of Germany, and even a lot of green issues - as a still very rural and agricultural state protection of the environment is a priority topic.

In other words, it is very difficult for the other parties to position themselves. After all why should I vote for the SPD, if by voting CSU I not only get these issues, but also some FDP and Green ones thrown in, while keeping the devil I know in power? At least that's my guess ;)

Personally I find Bavarian politics even more tedious than German politics. Steuber stands for more or less everything I dislike in a politician, but even I have to admit that he made a relatively good job of being Bavarians premier. As German chancellor he would be a catastrophe, though, and thus he rightly lost the last general election to Schroeder :D .

As I said: Bavarians are strange...
He, I resent that remark!

;)

I went to Bavaria once to see my family, Augsburg, it was pretty nice.
Oh, I forgot - I live in Augsburg (work in Munich). It is a pretty nice place. Where are you from?

Go Prussia!

EDIT: Hamburg City.

Go Prussia!

EDIT: Hamburg City.
Hi Leonstein - don't think you can bait me that easily, you Saupreiß elendiger ;)

Actually, my mum is from Hamburg and I really like the place. It's the only city outside the south of Germany I could imagine living in (there are lots of places outside Germany I could imagine living in, though).

New interesting info:

Seems like the CDU/FDP coalition has lost the absolute majority for the first time in one of the polls.
http://www.zeit.de/2005/32/prognose_schwarzgelb_4

And here is the link to "Wahlstreet", a stock market to tip the outcome.
http://zeit.wahlstreet.de/cgi-bin/open/esm.fpl

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New interesting info:
And here is the link to "Wahlstreet", a stock market to tip the outcome.
http://zeit.wahlstreet.de/cgi-bin/open/esm.fpl
According to that, a SPD/CDU coalition is about as likely as an CDU/FDP one!

According to that, a SPD/CDU coalition is about as likely as an CDU/FDP one!
But since people have to pay actual money to play, it actually does tell you something.
It's market principles to forecast stuff, and apparently it's been proven to work to some extent.