Now this [ Long! ] report about China is fascinating!
Eutrusca
20-07-2005, 03:14
The "Annual Report to Congress" on "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China" makes for fascinating (albiet sometimes boring ) reading!
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d20050719china.pdf
Some interesting quotes:
"The Chinese People's Liberation Army ( PLA ) is modernizing its forces, emphasizing preparations to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts along China's periphery."
"Over the long run, if current trends persist, PLA capabilities could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region [ East Asia ]."
I highly recommend this report. Long and dry, but very important information.
Niccolo Medici
20-07-2005, 07:12
Oh, thanks Eutrusca. :) I knew this was coming out sometime soon. I'll be sure to give it a read when I have a moment.
*groan*
I already have 350 some odd pages to read for my Language Arts 10 class, Harry Potter 6, and now you want me to read THAT! :(
Achtung 45
20-07-2005, 07:16
Oh, thanks Eutrusca. :) I knew this was coming out sometime soon. I'll be sure to give it a read when I have a moment.
It's just like Christmas all over again!
Niccolo Medici
20-07-2005, 07:23
It's just like Christmas all over again!
How'd you know? ;)
Last christmas one of my gifts was a new subscription to Foreign Affairs magazine and another was a new translation of The Art of War (that means I have somewhere around...13 copies in my possession).
So yeah...it is like Christmas, if you're a policy-freak like me.
An armed China disturbs me greatly. Anyone else feel the same way?
Eutrusca
20-07-2005, 08:00
How'd you know? ;)
Last christmas one of my gifts was a new subscription to Foreign Affairs magazine and another was a new translation of The Art of War (that means I have somewhere around...13 copies in my possession).
So yeah...it is like Christmas, if you're a policy-freak like me.
The correct term is "wonk." Policy ... wonk. If you're going to call yourself names, at least get it right! :D
Eutrusca
20-07-2005, 08:03
*groan*
I already have 350 some odd pages to read for my Language Arts 10 class, Harry Potter 6, and now you want me to read THAT! :(
Heh! Not at all! Don't read anything you like. ;)
Eutrusca
20-07-2005, 08:05
An armed China disturbs me greatly. Anyone else feel the same way?
Not really. What worries me is a nuclear-armed North Korea, or a nuclear-armed Iran. :eek:
Niccolo Medici
20-07-2005, 08:08
An armed China disturbs me greatly. Anyone else feel the same way?
An armed China IS going to happen eventually. Unless we're willing to go to war based on fear, and forcibly disarm a nation.
So the question then becomes, how does the rest of the world react?
How much do we arm her neighbors, how much do we influence China's policies with our own, and how hostile should we approach this situation in general? Its a very complex issue, and no two groups can agree on the best solution, and in China...they can't figure out what to do with their growing power much either.
Eutrusca
20-07-2005, 08:13
An armed China IS going to happen eventually. Unless we're willing to go to war based on fear, and forcibly disarm a nation.
So the question then becomes, how does the rest of the world react?
How much do we arm her neighbors, how much do we influence China's policies with our own, and how hostile should we approach this situation in general? Its a very complex issue, and no two groups can agree on the best solution, and in China...they can't figure out what to do with their growing power much either.
Given China's increasing involvment in international trade and their internal emphasis on business, I rather think they will develop even more of an interest in avoiding anything which could disrupt either. Although the Chinese seem to be a bit too ethonocentric, I suspect the best tack for the US to take is to simply wait out the inevitable changes, which is what we seem to be doing quite well.
Lacadaemon
20-07-2005, 08:18
Not really. What worries me is a nuclear-armed North Korea, or a nuclear-armed Iran. :eek:
It's not as if China is going to go away. (Well it might actually, if they don't clean their act up financially and domestically. But that's not the point.)
China's behaviour is almost anti-symetrical to the US's. Unlike the west, which tends to demobalize and enjoy peace dividends when there is no immeadiate threat, the behaviour of china is the complete opposite. Given that for the first time in decades it is no-longer a pariah, enjoys excellent trading and diplomatic relationships with the rest of the world, and faces no real credible threats to its national security, china's millitary build up seems a little odd at the least. Clearly they have something in mind, and given that they are not really facing external threats, I can't imagine that it is just to be left alone.
And it is not just the US that feels squirrely about this. Britian is laying down two large aircraft carriers, and has recently (in the last decade) constructed two tank arsenals. The brits haven't bothered with that type of force projection since the mid-sixties (and then they were using mostly WWII era equipment). The French are also interested in joining the Brits in the construction of a third carrier as well. The brits have also established a proof of concept design that will allow them to easily convert their retiring invincible hulls into assualt ships for high intensity litoral operations. It's almost as if there is something in the wind that is going to involve long range force projection. (Especially as the contemplated fleet air-arm expansion will be considerably larger in fighter/bomber strength than the current establishment of the RAF).
Whatever happens, I am sure it will end in tears.
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 00:23
An armed China disturbs me greatly. Anyone else feel the same way?
No different to any other armed country, is it?
Why do I have to fear the Chinese again?
Wurzelmania
21-07-2005, 00:27
Short high intensity war eh. Taiwan anyone? Maybe NK.
What of this was not predictable? I'm gonna read it later but that's my basic reaction.
I fear others far more than China.
It's not really a buildup to say at least, but more of a modernization of the current armed forces of China in its technology, organization, and doctrine. While China's foreign policy may be conflicting to the policy of others, it makes perfect sense for a sovereign nation of over one billion people to ensure that its armed forces will not lag behind in a cloud of obsoleteness and incompetence.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 02:42
GRRRR. All these anti-China propaganda!!!
There is nothing wrong with an armed China. Every power has the right and freedom to arm itself without other powers poking fingers. :mad:
Well like it or not the West is gonna fight an armed China in the next 25-50 years so I'd prefer they didn't. We won't give up Taiwan without a fight.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 02:52
We won't give up Taiwan without a fight.
Taiwan. is. not. yours. Taiwan. is. ours.
GRRRR. All these anti-China propaganda!!!
There is nothing wrong with an armed China. Every power has the right and freedom to arm itself without other powers poking fingers. :mad:
Nothing wrong with it. Just that we're kinda scared that they might use their armed power to INVADE Taiwan.
And we're protecting Taiwan.
So we're going to have to fight this newly armed China.
And it's gonna turn out to be a bloody mess.
Thus we're worried.
Anti-China? No. Anti-OHMYFUCKINGGOD!ANUCLEARMISSILEISHEADEDTOLOSANELES! Yes.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 03:01
Nothing wrong with it. Just that we're kinda scared that they might use their armed power to INVADE Taiwan.
You have to be careful with technical terms. It's not "invade", it's "restoring legal sovereignty"
And we're protecting Taiwan.
Which is meddling with Chinese INTERNAL affairs.
So we're going to have to fight this newly armed China.
And it's gonna turn out to be a bloody mess.
No. You can sit home by the telly and choke on pretzels.
Thus we're worried.
It's your own paranoia.
Anti-China? No. Anti-OHMYFUCKINGGOD!ANUCLEARMISSILEISHEADEDTOLOSANELES! Yes.
!#@$%!#$^#!$^!%! :gundge:
BTW, didn't you turn 15 a few days ago? Lol. Happy Birthday.
El Caudillo
21-07-2005, 03:03
Not really. What worries me is a nuclear-armed North Korea, or a nuclear-armed Iran. :eek:
Why aren't you worried? You do know that China still considers us "the main enemy" and wants to wipe us off the face of the Earth, right?
You have to be careful with technical terms. It's not "invade", it's "restoring legal sovereignty"
This is CSA/USA debate all over again. Except this time the CSA has the backing of the USA. No wait a second...
Which is meddling with Chinese INTERNAL affairs.
China invading an island and threatening to wage war on all nations that defend the island is an INTERNAL affair?
No. You can sit home by the telly and choke on pretzels.
I hate pretzels.
It's your own paranoia.
Girls staring at me starts up my paranoia. Not asians. Asians are paranoid of ME.
!#@$%!#$^#!$^!%! :gundge:
!@$@#$%#$%#$%#$%#$%#@$@#$@#$@#%$@#%#@^infinity.
BTW, didn't you turn 15 a few days ago? Lol. Happy Birthday.
Indeed I did! Thanks for remembering! *pies you in the face*
It's cherry pie. ;)
<snip>Anti-China? No. Anti-OHMYFUCKINGGOD!ANUCLEARMISSILEISHEADEDTOLOSANELES! Yes.
Lets combine a couple of Thread themes here.
China Has ICBMs.
China has an Humungo (and modernizing) Army but no Navy to speak of.
China does not like Religious Fanatics.
China borders Pakistan/X-istan-ibad (central Asia).
Imagine China has ONE major Islamofacist terrorist incident. (9/11-7/7 style)
Xistanibad is carpet bombed & overrun. Mecca dissapears. China owns Central Asia. (Easier to march than swim)
In regards to the inevetible (as it stands today) nuking of Mecca (either by China or Russia - who both stand to lose the most from an increase in fundamentalist Islamic States), the US won't have to do a damn thing - or anything to do with it (but we will probably still get blamed for it anyway).
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 03:16
This is CSA/USA debate all over again. Except this time the CSA has the backing of the USA. No wait a second...
What's CSA?
China invading an island and threatening to wage war on all nations that defend the island is an INTERNAL affair?
If Washington decided to military step into Alaska do you expect Canada or Russia to step in and fight for sovereignty? Same thing.
I hate pretzels
The guy that decides to declare war on behalf of your country doesn't.
Girls staring at me starts up my paranoia. Not asians. Asians are paranoid of ME.
*finds a toilet to puke into it because I find Colodia's statement too revolting...and a tiny wee bit funny*
!@$@#$%#$%#$%#$%#$%#@$@#$@#$@#%$@#%#@^infinity.
*places mirror in front of me*
Indeed I did! Thanks for remembering! *pies you in the face*
It's cherry pie. ;)
Coo! Cherry is good! Happy Birthday! :fluffle:
What's CSA?
Confederate States of America. The very ones we fought a war in order to take back our soveirgnity for. Except they didn't have forgein allys. Their fault, not ours!
If Washington decided to military step into Alaska do you expect Canada or Russia to step in and fight for sovereignty? Same thing.
Last I checked, Alaska hasn't taken steps toward sovereignty. Though Alaska never makes the news.
The guy that decides to declare war on behalf of your country doesn't.
We don't like him either. And you can be assured that so long as we have a war-mongering President, China won't invade Taiwan. I mean. You don't want to provoke a guy that shows a nation's former leader in his underwear. Perhaps your leaders have something (or lack of...) to hide beneath their pants? ;)
*finds a toilet to puke into it because I find Colodia's statement too revolting...and a tiny wee bit funny*
*taps microphone*
"So I ask myself, what's the difference between a black man and a large pizza?..."
*places mirror in front of me*
*checks self out in mirror* By God I know why they stare at me!
Coo! Cherry is good! Happy Birthday! :fluffle:
Aww! Group hug!
*checks clock, realizes that his show is starting, and throws you aside*
No different to any other armed country, is it?
Why do I have to fear the Chinese again?
Authoritarians scare me. All kinds. Even fake communists.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 03:30
Confederate States of America. The very ones we fought a war in order to take back our soveirgnity for. Except they didn't have forgein allys. Their fault, not ours!
Yeh...exactly...a continued civil war. Foreign powers who try to intervene in civil wars need to be taught a grave lesson. Oh wait...that's the standard foreign policy of the United States...oops...
Last I checked, Alaska hasn't taken steps toward sovereignty. Though Alaska never makes the news. Analogies are supposed to break down over detail.
We don't like him either. And you can be assured that so long as we have a war-mongering President, China won't invade Taiwan. I mean. You don't want to provoke a guy that shows a nation's former leader in his underwear. Perhaps your leaders have something (or lack of...) to hide beneath their pants? ;)
The Chinese people are the most fertile on Earth. How else did we get up to become the world's most populous nation?
*taps microphone*
"So I ask myself, what's the difference between a black man and a large pizza?..."
:confused:
*checks self out in mirror* By God I know why they stare at me!
It's probably because of that not-so-large blemish that catches a lot of disgusted looks...JUST KIDDING!
Aww! Group hug!
*checks clock, realizes that his show is starting, and throws you aside*
...
Why aren't you worried? You do know that China still considers us "the main enemy" and wants to wipe us off the face of the Earth, right?
If that is really the case (at least, if that's really the official policy of the Chinese government), then I'd suspect that the US embassy will already be stormed and ties already severed between the US and China. Surely, there are people in the Chinese government with much more sense then you proclaim - it's no denial that China regards the US as a rival and potential adversay due to the American position on Taiwan/ROC, but not an enemy that they need to fight to the death.
In regards to another comment here by Sniks - there are already religious fanatics in western China. Xinjiang/East Turkestan/whatever you want to call it. Agreed, there's no major incident like a massacre in the national capital, but there are a long list of reports of Islamic extremist attacks in the region there, and the Chinese government is actively cracking down on them too.
Gulf Republics
21-07-2005, 03:49
Taiwan has been owned by many different groups. Dutch, Spanish, China, Japan, French....
To consider it Chinas is foolish, Taiwans history is too marked up with different occupiers to be considered owned territory by anybody other then the current INDEPENDENT government. The actual locals that lived before the invaiders were mostly wiped out by the Chineese and Japanees during their respective ownerships of the Islands.
in 1895 China ceded it to Japan after the Sino-Jap war. China only retook it after the end of World War 2 without permission from the united states or japan, so technically it should be Japans, but post world war 2 the US wasnt about to protect Japaneese territorial intrests outisde of the home islands.
If taiwan was really part of China why when they retook it in 1947 did the slaughter a large amount of the civilian population on the island? Why would the islands population rebel against china as they did in 1947?
"Chinese rule brought widespread corruption to the government, chaos to society, and run-away inflation to the economy. On February 28, a generalized uprising ensued. Chiang Kai-shek responded by sending in troops from China and conducting ruthless suppression. Thousands of Taiwanese, most of them innocent, were massacred"
Taiwan has been part of China as much as the Phillipines has been part of the United States. AKA territoral conquests passed down over the years to the neglect of the ACTUAL native population...the only difference between this and the US occpation is that the US didnt slaughter 92% of the native population then contend that the island is actually theirs all along.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 03:58
Taiwan has been owned by many different groups. Dutch, Spanish, China, Japan, French....
To consider it Chinas is foolish, Taiwans history is too marked up with different occupiers to be considered owned territory by anybody other then the current INDEPENDENT government. The actual locals that lived before the invaiders were mostly wiped out by the Chineese and Japanees during their respective ownerships of the Islands.
in 1895 China ceded it to Japan after the Sino-Jap war. China only retook it after the end of World War 2 without permission from the united states or japan, so technically it should be Japans, but post world war 2 the US wasnt about to protect Japaneese territorial intrests outisde of the home islands.
If taiwan was really part of China why when they retook it in 1947 did the slaughter a large amount of the civilian population on the island? Why would the islands population rebel against china as they did in 1947?
"Chinese rule brought widespread corruption to the government, chaos to society, and run-away inflation to the economy. On February 28, a generalized uprising ensued. Chiang Kai-shek responded by sending in troops from China and conducting ruthless suppression. Thousands of Taiwanese, most of them innocent, were massacred"
Taiwan has been part of China as much as the Phillipines has been part of the United States. AKA territoral conquests passed down over the years to the neglect of the ACTUAL native population...the only difference between this and the US occpation is that the US didnt slaughter 92% of the native population then contend that the island is actually theirs all along.
Let's go beyond the 20th Century, shall we?
In the 3rd Century AD, during the Three Kingdoms Period, the Chinese - CHINESE - kingdom of Wu sent expeditions to the island of Taiwan, then called Liuqiu, and claimed sovereignty.
Japan didn't exist. The Roman Empire was collapsing. America was still in the hands of the natives. The history of a Chinese Taiwan stretches that far back.
Let's go beyond the 20th Century, shall we?
In the 3rd Century AD, during the Three Kingdoms Period, the Chinese - CHINESE - kingdom of Wu sent expeditions to the island of Taiwan, then called Liuqiu, and claimed sovereignty.
Japan didn't exist. The Roman Empire was collapsing. America was still in the hands of the natives. The history of a Chinese Taiwan stretches that far back.
True, but one of the biggest problems the World has today is with people insisting that ownership of somthing 1000 years ago somehow has relevance to today.
I owe nothing to "African Americans" (except common courtesy) because I did not live during Antebellum US, Reconstruction or Jim Crow.
Both the Palestinian and Jewish claims to "historical ownership" is specious today.
If the prevelent "My Ancestors Owned it - so I deserve to control it" applied, then I should be able to pop over to Scotland and claim a good chunk of Loch Loman and the Buchanan Castle ruins.
They are there. They control it. It is Theirs. Attempts to take it at this historical juncture amount to naked agression. (This applies to Taiwan, Israel, or wherever). If you want it, buy it. Otherwise learn to get along.
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 04:31
-snip-
I think all that China is asking for is that the US doesn't intervene if reunification is on the agenda.
China has much to lose if it goes to war with the US. Probably everything. So I don't see them starting anything themselves.
But if Taiwan declares independence, and China lets it happen, then China will lose face and its' credibility (in their eyes). It is understandable that there are many voices in Beijing who don't want to see that happen under any circumstances.
It's all up to the Taiwanese. Give them a few more years and China will have become more like Taiwan, more nationalist than communist. And then there'll be voices in Taiwan strong enough to make reunification happen. Then the Americans must stay out of it.
Greedy Pig
21-07-2005, 04:36
Armed China? Imo, I don't forsee much wrong with that to be honest. They are going to be the next superpower. But whats better is their refocusing on their economy as well, and getting more modernized. Imo, Eventually they'll play a bigger part in the international community (in a good way).
I think all that China is asking for is that the US doesn't intervene if reunification is on the agenda.
China has much to lose if it goes to war with the US. Probably everything. So I don't see them starting anything themselves.
But if Taiwan declares independence, and China lets it happen, then China will lose face and its' credibility (in their eyes). It is understandable that there are many voices in Beijing who don't want to see that happen under any circumstances.Too bad. This is no longer about Face, this is about agression and free will. If China wanted, they could sweeten the pot for Taiwan. It worked for Hong Kong, it could work for Taiwan. Just figure out the incentives.
It's all up to the Taiwanese. Give them a few more years and China will have become more like Taiwan, more nationalist than communist. And then there'll be voices in Taiwan strong enough to make reunification happen. Then the Americans must stay out of it.
Agreed. As PRC becomes more and more (economically) like Tiawan, the Tiawanese will look mor and more favorably on reunification. The PRC should realize this and continue to bide its time. Aggressive action at this (or any) juncture is ill advised.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 05:26
True, but one of the biggest problems the World has today is with people insisting that ownership of somthing 1000 years ago somehow has relevance to today.
I owe nothing to "African Americans" (except common courtesy) because I did not live during Antebellum US, Reconstruction or Jim Crow.
Both the Palestinian and Jewish claims to "historical ownership" is specious today.
If the prevelent "My Ancestors Owned it - so I deserve to control it" applied, then I should be able to pop over to Scotland and claim a good chunk of Loch Loman and the Buchanan Castle ruins.
They are there. They control it. It is Theirs. Attempts to take it at this historical juncture amount to naked agression. (This applies to Taiwan, Israel, or wherever). If you want it, buy it. Otherwise learn to get along.
Okay...since the 3rd Century AD, Taiwan has been Chinese until 1895 when the Japanese snatched it away from us. After the Japanese occupation obviously it gets returned to its rightful owner, China. Look at Hong Kong. We aren't independent after the British took us. Why different for Taiwan?
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 05:26
Aggressive action at this (or any) juncture is ill advised.
I assume you're talking about the anti-secession law. I think that was just a very strong hint to the old guard leaders in Taiwan not to try anything stupid before they all die out.
The few politicians who still want an independent Taiwan are getting old and are replaced by modern faces. It is conceivable that those old men might see this as their last chance and do something they shouldn't.
...But what if the Taiwanese WANT to be independent from China?
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 05:39
...But what if the Taiwanese WANT to be independent from China?
I can't find an opinion poll right now, but I assume as time progresses there'll be a greater push towards reunification.
But at any rate, it is of no business to Americans what the Taiwanese think about China...
EDIT: This is from the China Daily (2001), found on this (rather biased) website http://www.china.org.cn/english/16454.htm
"A recent survey in Taiwan by the Public Poll Foundation found that 47.5 percent of the respondents could accept the "one country, two systems" model for cross-Straits relations, the first time in such polls the number of people in favour of the reunification formula was so high.
Nearly 60 percent of those aged 20-29 now support the system."
Americai
21-07-2005, 05:43
If Americans are worried about China. Join the military OR better yet, join a milita group.
There is no point being a political puppet, but cultivating a culture similar to that of 1776 can't hurt at all.
Ahh, well wonder how the agenda can be updated to show that Anti-Taiwanese propaganda from the mainland truly does work! ;)
Americai
21-07-2005, 05:57
You have to be careful with technical terms. It's not "invade", it's "restoring legal sovereignty"
Which is meddling with Chinese INTERNAL affairs.
No. You can sit home by the telly and choke on pretzels.
It's your own paranoia.
!#@$%!#$^#!$^!%! :gundge:
BTW, didn't you turn 15 a few days ago? Lol. Happy Birthday.
For what its worth Dragon's Bay. I agree with you against Colodia. I as an American could not possibly care LESS about Taiwan and internal Chinese politics that doesn't effect foriegners. I however am well aware that the Chinese government/military wing does consider us its prime enemy. For this reason, I also want my government to be prepped against a foriegn attack. But I do NOT want our government to instigate an attack against China. As for Taiwanese people seeking independence. I recommend simply deporting them to the America's or Australia. If they want basic freedom, then they can suffer being deported to a region that will give them freedoms.
One thing you SHOULD realize however is once a country realizes power, it continues to try to gain more. The US used to be isolationist. Now look at how it has become. China though not using its military power on foriegn soil WILL eventually do so once it has sufficent power to do so. Its human nature if anything. Look at how well China is expanding its influence in foriegn markets trying to undermine the US.
I do NOT want to go to war with China, but if both our countries do not back down in the war talk its going to be a VERY problematic issue in the future.
****ing politics.
For what its worth Dragon's Bay. I agree with you against that California resident. I as an American could not possibly care LESS about Taiwan and internal Chinese politics that doesn't effect foriegners.
...There's so much wrong with that.
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 06:05
...There's so much wrong with that.
Why do you care so much about what the Chinese do to other Chinese?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Republic_of_China
Americai
21-07-2005, 06:16
...There's so much wrong with that.
For one, I appologize for the way I forgot to add your name. I simply didn't remember what it was when I was writing. I had, and still have a lot of windows up. So I did not mean to show disrespect. I do disagree with you and your preference for interventionalism over China over a damned piece of island that we have no intrest in colonizing.
But all in all when I was writing I only remembered that you said you were from Cali. Heh, sorry. Honest mistake on my part. I edited it especially after I saw you post and remembered you were the poster. :)
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 06:22
Oh...you meant the California vs American resident thing, did you?
Well, in that case ignore my post, Colodia... :D
Why do you care so much about what the Chinese do to other Chinese?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Republic_of_China
....
World: You Americans don't care about the world! You think it all revolves around you!
America: Okay okay! We'll pay more attention! We'll form opinions, debate, analyze, and understand the world around us!
World: You Americans meddle too much in the world! Leave the world alone!
America: ...Jerks...
...
I kinda care because it kinda matters. Whether you like it or not there will be U.S. military intervention if China decided to take over Taiwan. WHETHER OR NOT you like it, U.S. is read to protect China. Whether you like it or not, we need to start figuring out what are our options and what we need to do for the future otherwise one wrong move and it'll be a whole new Cold War.
Americai: No problem!
Oh...you meant the California vs American resident thing, did you?
Well, in that case ignore my post, Colodia... :D
Dammit, after I spend a couple minutes of my life figuring out how to respond to that? I'm not editting myself! ;)
Leonstein
21-07-2005, 07:52
World: You Americans don't care about the world! You think it all revolves around you!
America: World? What world? Anyways, is that guy a communist? Cuz we really don't like communists...
World: You Americans meddle too much in the world! Leave the world alone!
America: Oh, go fuck yourselves. Are you a communist....?
;)
===============================================
I kinda care because it kinda matters. Whether you like it or not there will be U.S. military intervention if China decided to take over Taiwan. WHETHER OR NOT you like it, U.S. is read to protect China. Whether you like it or not, we need to start figuring out what are our options and what we need to do for the future otherwise one wrong move and it'll be a whole new Cold War.
As long as it is about "protecting" Taiwan, and not about territorial and strategic considerations or, god forbid, ideological ones.
But I don't see China doing anything unless Taiwan does something stupid. So shouldn't you be doing everything you can to stop the Taiwanese from doing that incredibly stupid thing?
Like saying this: "If you declare independence unilaterally, you are on your own! We are not going to save your arses if you decide to go nuts just for the heck of it." Watch how quickly the whole independence talk goes away...
Given China's increasing involvment in international trade and their internal emphasis on business, I rather think they will develop even more of an interest in avoiding anything which could disrupt either. Although the Chinese seem to be a bit too ethonocentric, I suspect the best tack for the US to take is to simply wait out the inevitable changes, which is what we seem to be doing quite well.
I would very much agree with that statement.
I've been doing a research paper on the Chinese economy (it's due tomorrow actually, thank goodness it's done!), and I honestly don't see China as a military threat to Taiwan, or anybody else...provided Taiwan doesn't do anything stupid.
It's not really a buildup to say at least, but more of a modernization of the current armed forces of China in its technology, organization, and doctrine. While China's foreign policy may be conflicting to the policy of others, it makes perfect sense for a sovereign nation of over one billion people to ensure that its armed forces will not lag behind in a cloud of obsoleteness and incompetence.
Very true. China's navy is currently a joke, and their air-force, while strong in numbers, isn't much better. They are, however, increasing their defense budget by 10% every year for the last six years, while at the same time decreasing their overall numbers of men and equipment.
(more money - old equipment)/fewer personel = modernization
Why aren't you worried? You do know that China still considers us "the main enemy" and wants to wipe us off the face of the Earth, right?
Bullshit.
China depends just as much upon the U.S. and European markets as the U.S. and Europe depend upon China's. To "wipe us off the face of the earth" runs contrary to every economic and social policy that China has enacted for the last thirty years.
Armed China? Imo, I don't forsee much wrong with that to be honest. They are going to be the next superpower.
People throw that phrase around as though it's inevitable, when in reality it's anything but.
China has a LOT of problems to deal with before they become a true superpower. Because of the "one child" policy, they have an aging crisis that puts the U.S. and Europe to shame. They have an increasing problem with economic disparity between the now rich coastal regions and the still dirt-poor agricutural interior. They have a growing middle class which, sooner or later, is going to want a say in how things are run. A growing pollution problem that isn't going away anytime soon. Increasing power of nearby markets (specifically India and SE Asia), and dwindling resources.
China has a long way to go.
Agreed. As PRC becomes more and more (economically) like Tiawan, the Tiawanese will look mor and more favorably on reunification. The PRC should realize this and continue to bide its time. Aggressive action at this (or any) juncture is ill advised.
China will indeed bide it's time. China will take a huge economic hit if they invade Taiwan...no matter if anyone intervenes or if China is successful. The risk is not worth the reward, and the Chinese leadership is fully aware of that. They will bide their time until the old generation is dead and the new one is in power. They will eventually unify, and I suspect it will be in a completely peaceful manner.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 11:14
The Taiwanese is a Chinese tribe. They should be incorporated into the Chinese nation. If every tribe and peoples wanted independence instead of organised into nations we'd fall back into feudalism and fiefdom fights.
[NS]Kewwlona
21-07-2005, 11:19
For better or for worse, the 21st century WILL be China's century, much as the 20th was America's.
Dragons Bay
21-07-2005, 11:30
Kewwlona']For better or for worse, the 21st century WILL be China's century, much as the 20th was America's.
That's right. The 21st century would be the Chinese century, just as the 3rd century, 4th century, 5th century, 6th century, 7th century... until the 19th century. :D
Green israel
21-07-2005, 11:33
Kewwlona']For better or for worse, the 21st century WILL be China's century, much as the 20th was America's.come on, we haven't passed one decade, yet.
nobody thought that USA will be superpower until they join to ww1 which occuredat 1917 or so. before they were just developing country that almost don't involved in the international diplomacy, and had little power.