NationStates Jolt Archive

... and gets a heart attack;

Kyoto bill put at $900 per family (http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411319/593018/)

The government's revised forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions could cost each New Zealand household around $900, according to financial consultants PricewaterhouseCoopers.

They say it's vital the government manages future liabilities under the Kyoto Protocol without paralysing the economy.

Last week the government announced that forecast emissions of greenhouse gases have surged and estimates of the amount of carbon forests will absorb have fallen, meaning New Zealand is set to miss its Kyoto target by a significant margin.

It means that instead of having a surplus of carbon credits, as the government predicted last year, New Zealand will need to buy credits from other Kyoto countries to cover the shortfall.

PricewaterhouseCoopers climate change services team head Julia Hoare says
the most likely scenario put forward in the government's latest estimates see New Zealand with a deficit of 36.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Using current carbon value and exchange rates, this would see New Zealand needing to purchase carbon credits at a cost of around $1.2 billion to offset the deficit.

Pessimistic estimates from the government put New Zealand's liability under the Kyoto Protocol at as much as $2 billion, while even a "best case" scenario will result in payments of at least $375 million, Hoare says.

She says the difficulty is that the emissions will be measured in 2012 - and without a crystal ball it's impossible to know the future price of carbon or the value of the New Zealand dollar.

"But if we take the $1.2 billion estimate as the most likely, this works out to a cost of around $900 for each New Zealand household," she says.

Any deficit would need to be funded from the country's surplus, an increase in the carbon tax charge or a reallocation of government expenditure, according to Hoare.

"The projected deficit is a significant liability and the government needs to make sure the numbers are right."

Hoare says the government recognises the importance of subjecting their forecasts to independent review to ensure a level of comfort with the robustness of its numbers.

"That's a good approach. The more certainty that can be taken from the estimates, then the better handle we will all have on New Zealand's future liability under the Kyoto Protocol."

It's important the approach taken to meeting our Kyoto Protocol obligations doesn't deter new business investors, or encourage existing businesses to leave New Zealand, Hoare says.

She says there are a number of ways this can be achieved.

The government could look at further enhancements to the depreciation rules for emission-friendly assets, or extending the projects' mechanism which provides financial rewards for introducing and developing low-emissions technology.

Hoare says she hopes the temptation to scale back the negotiated greenhouse agreement process will not prove too great.

Greater investment to stimulate the forestry sector is also needed, she says.

"The $18 million grant allocation to forest owners over five years to encourage bio-energy and other emissions friendly technology may be seen as insufficient when compared to the huge deficit we're facing if we don't plant more trees."

The government's latest estimates confirm predictions that the initial calculations were wildly optimistic, Hoare says.

She says the figures have been revised upwards for two reasons: Emissions have increased because of the strong performance of the economy. And the forest sink estimates have been reduced because of changing land use away from planting forests, and because the science underpinning the initial projections was wrong.


Plant more trees, you say? (http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=161014)

Some forests planted before 1990 are being cut down early because owners are worried about Kyoto liabilities.


Congrats on saving the climate though :rolleyes:

i can not believe it costs 900 a family to shove a cork in a sheep butthole..what are you(edit i realised youre from isreal) doing importing french wine?

TAG

I'll just have this linked to the main NZ politics thread:

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=368048


Please note that I'm a Kiwi and I'm not in support of the whole Kyoto mess!

$900 extra per family! This is a bloody outrage! Over the last decade, my family has paid mroe than $100,000 to the bloody government. If we saved that money, we would have bought a nice house in some small town. The 28-33% tax rate is a shame, and now we have to pay more so that there will be a few less greenhouse gas molecules floating about.

$900 extra per family! This is a bloody outrage! Over the last decade, my family has paid mroe than $100,000 to the bloody government. If we saved that money, we would have bought a nice house in some small town. The 28-33% tax rate is a shame, and now we have to pay more so that there will be a few less greenhouse gas molecules floating about.


Nah, im sure the americans will pick up the slack for ya guys and put some extra molecules to offset your lesser ones.

Do you see the most industrialized nation of the world being interest in some silly protocol written in Japan that's suppose to dictate the rest of the planet?

If these costs are in real NZ $ then I would suggest scrapping the treaty. I think its useless and could be better used as toilet paper. Lets make a realistic treaty that is fair and accurate to what the problems are.

Do you see the most industrialized nation of the world being interest in some silly protocol written in Japan that's suppose to dictate the rest of the planet?


Nope, well..im about 50/50 on it. For some reason the world is undergoing some sorta socialist revolution....it is a strong force in america but not nearly as strong in the rest of the world, which makes the americans seem as old fashioned convservative odd balls right now. And IMHO the United States seems to be the only country not insisting on national suicide polities like the Koyto Treaty...because that is exactly what it is...a suicide pact for the industrial base of any nation.

I see in 10-20 years, even though they are getting flack for the unpopular polices right now, the USA being an even bigger world power then they are now. As long as the socialists are kept to a minor factor.

Europe is doomed save GB. The EU has been nothing but a vain attempted to keep afloat on a sinking ship So the old world W Europe is trying to leech off the growing economies of E Europe. by fabriticating some sorta national union thing...strangely the E Europe countries are buying into it for some reason...must be the suicide erges....

If these costs are in real NZ $ then I would suggest scrapping the treaty. I think its useless and could be better used as toilet paper. Lets make a realistic treaty that is fair and accurate to what the problems are.

What treaty, Kyoto or Waitangi? There's already racial separatism in the country with the 'Maori Police' and all. These days one Maori vote = two non-Maori votes and if you want to be ahead of everyone else, you must be Brown, a dropout and be the parent of some illegitimate. I've had enough of the PC-ness!

If these costs are in real NZ $ then I would suggest scrapping the treaty. I think its useless and could be better used as toilet paper. Lets make a realistic treaty that is fair and accurate to what the problems are.
Imagine how much higher it would be, then, if the U.S. had signed on. Big, RICH united states, driving up the price of carbon-output for small, middle-class New Zealand...

Scrapping the treaty's a bit late now, you've signed on, then ratified. I don't know what you were thinking either (or what you must have been thinking with...), but without a really brutal change of government in the next election cycle, I don't see the Kiwis getting out of paying that NZ$900 per family for their carbon-output.

For some reason the world is undergoing some sorta socialist revolution....
It's called progress my friend and has been going on since the Renaissance.
Someone must've started it with "the scientific method"...that bastard! Can't they see the world is flat?!

Question...it says 900$, yes...but 900 dollars over what period of time? Each fiscal year? Or 900$ by 2012, when the study is taken for Carbon deposits?

'cause 900$ spread out over roughly 7 years isn't all that bad, but losing almost a thousand a year for about 7 years will be seriously damaging. I couldn't see what they meant by 900$...over what time period?

$900 extra per family! This is a bloody outrage!

Damn right. It is a far better thing to have $900 in the middle of a potentially catastrophic climatological and ecological shift than not have $900 and potentially avert the disaster. After all, we can always eat money if the crops fail.

What treaty, Kyoto or Waitangi? There's already racial separatism in the country with the 'Maori Police' and all. These days one Maori vote = two non-Maori votes and if you want to be ahead of everyone else, you must be Brown, a dropout and be the parent of some illegitimate. I've had enough of the PC-ness!


You realise the so called 'maori police' are all being arrested and charged, right? If you need the things you say to 'get ahead' why are maori still disproportionally represented in crime and poverty statistics? They're clearly 'getting ahead' right?

You realise the so called 'maori police' are all being arrested and charged, right? If you need the things you say to 'get ahead' why are maori still disproportionally represented in crime and poverty statistics? They're clearly 'getting ahead' right?

For real, that was hilarious. And the "Maori Government" says they're going to start a nationwide campaign. Good luck with that. The last thing 99% of Maori want are some a-holes in black suits intimidating everyone else.

.. now why does Destiny Church come to mind??

Hamish

Damn right. It is a far better thing to have $900 in the middle of a potentially catastrophic climatological and ecological shift than not have $900 and potentially avert the disaster. After all, we can always eat money if the crops fail.

Lies beget lies, falsehood creates new falsehood. People just found out that predictions were "very optimistic", and now the true nature of how painful this might be has shown itself. People are as much outraged at the sneak-thief way this was placed in their laps as by the actual costs I believe.

Its like the US perscription drug plan, it cost money, we know that. It costs a whole lot MORE money than anyone was willing to admit until well after it had passed. This fiat acompli way of doing government work stirs up tremendous ill will.

People have the capacity to make painful choices in favor of the enviornment...but lie to them about it and watch the ensuing backlash. These estimates may not actually be lies, but they have been greatly distorted, no? The effect is the same. New Zealanders have been AMBUSHED by these hidden costs.

The last thing 99% of Maori want are some a-holes in black suits intimidating everyone else.

.. now why does Destiny Church come to mind??

"Fascists are people who dress in black and tell you what to do and priests, well, er ..."

People have the capacity to make painful choices in favor of the enviornment...but lie to them about it and watch the ensuing backlash. These estimates may not actually be lies, but they have been greatly distorted, no? The effect is the same. New Zealanders have been AMBUSHED by these hidden costs.

My central point still remains: you main counter argument seems to be that politicians are swine who shouldn't be trusted further than they can be thrown, and with that I am in total agreement.

For real, that was hilarious. And the "Maori Government" says they're going to start a nationwide campaign. Good luck with that. The last thing 99% of Maori want are some a-holes in black suits intimidating everyone else.

.. now why does Destiny Church come to mind??

Hamish

All the local Iwi took a huge step back from the group too. I saw the women in charge being interviewed on the late news last night and she was having a fair bit of trouble explaining properly.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3335839a11,00.html

"A 31-year-old man was arrested at a Gisborne house about midday and has been charged with impersonating a police officer and demanding with menaces, Senior Sergeant Tony Gibson told NZPA."

whatta you know, demanding money in a uniform that says 'police' is a crime. Funny, that.

People have the capacity to make painful choices in favor of the enviornment...but lie to them about it and watch the ensuing backlash. These estimates may not actually be lies, but they have been greatly distorted, no? The effect is the same. New Zealanders have been AMBUSHED by these hidden costs.


Strangely enough, a while ago a 'fart tax' on live stock flatulence was proposed, amidst much protest before the idea was scrapped. Live stock contribute a huge proportion of carbon emissions, and if it had been introduced, Kyoto might have been eaiser to impliment. People couldn't swallow that farts were being taxed, and MP Nick Smith was arrested and charged for driving a tractor up the steps of parliment in protest.

Ah yes, the power of Teh New Zealand Farmer (should be our national animal) :rolleyes:

i can not believe it costs 900 a family to shove a cork in a sheep butthole..what are you(edit i realised youre from isreal) doing importing french wine?
It's not flatulence, it's belching btw.

It's called progress my friend and has been going on since the Renaissance.
Someone must've started it with "the scientific method"...that bastard! Can't they see the world is flat?!
Given that Kyoto is based on shitty, chicken little science your comparison is far from apt. You do realize that the hockey stick graph which basically jumpstarted the whole global-warming bullshit is purely bad math. You can input random numbers into the variables that make up the equation and you will still get a vaguely hockey-stick shaped graph. Kyoto is idiot driven and that's the long and short of it.

You realise the so called 'maori police' are all being arrested and charged, right? If you need the things you say to 'get ahead' why are maori still disproportionally represented in crime and poverty statistics? They're clearly 'getting ahead' right?

It took too bloody long for the crackdown on the separatists to come. If I was the PM, I would have issued a state of emergency!

whatta you know, demanding money in a uniform that says 'police' is a crime. Funny, that.

The real police doesn't demand you money. I don't see how that's funny.

If you're going to be persecuted for making fake DVDs, you might as well get persecuted for faking a policeman. If fact, if you're not a swore officer of the police or a defence personnel, donning their genuine uniform can land you in prison for fraud. Uniforms are NOT costumes!

...a bargain, even at double the price.

It's called progress my friend and has been going on since the Renaissance.
Someone must've started it with "the scientific method"...that bastard! Can't they see the world is flat?!

A socialist revolution would be disasterous anywhere. Has any attempted communist revolution not end in tragedy for that nation and it's people? What you see as 'progress' those who have observed from history see it as deformity.

A socialist revolution would be disasterous anywhere. Has any attempted communist revolution not end in tragedy for that nation and it's people? What you see as 'progress' those who have observed from history see it as deformity.
No, I'm saying there is no socialist revolution. If everything anti-conservative (ie pro-developmental by definition) is socialist, then yes, all science and all progress is socialist. But it ain't.
===========================================
...You do realize that the hockey stick graph which basically jumpstarted the whole global-warming bullshit is purely bad math...
As for hockey shaped graphs, you are referring to the first model. There have been many since and the vast majority of scientists around the world do believe global warming is accelerated by Human workings.
All studies done against that so far have been sponsored by people with a vested interest in there not being any environmental restrictions.
And the US Government's opposition to Kyoto (not perfect, but you gotta start somewhere) is purely domestic narcissism.

No, I'm saying there is no socialist revolution. If everything anti-conservative (ie pro-developmental by definition) is socialist, then yes, all science and all progress is socialist. But it ain't.

Again, you socialists try to exploit the ever-developing nature of science and technology (being neutral as always) to fit it as the 'greater scheme' of things to justify your perverted mental masturbation fantasies about the destruction of culture and economy.

It took too bloody long for the crackdown on the separatists to come. If I was the PM, I would have issued a state of emergency!

And you'd probably be imediately voted out for gross over reaction.

The real police doesn't demand you money. I don't see how that's funny.

If you're going to be persecuted for making fake DVDs, you might as well get persecuted for faking a policeman. If fact, if you're not a swore officer of the police or a defence personnel, donning their genuine uniform can land you in prison for fraud. Uniforms are NOT costumes!

Thats the point, they ARE being prosecuted, and they should be prosecuted.

I was saying 'funny that' with a bit of sarcasm, saying that it should be obvious to anyone that pretending to be a police officer and demanding money is illegal. You seem to think I'm defending them.

I'm not a qualified climate change scientist and I doubt that anyone in this thread is either. The majority of people studying this believe that there is a problem.

If in 100 years they turn out to be right and we've done something about it, horay, we still have polar icecaps - if they're wrong, well the world is still a cleaner place and we have a little bit less money.

And this $900 a year per household thing? That's crap - National spin doctors took the total cost per year and divided by households and then said this is how much you will have to pay. They completely ignored commercial tax (ie large commercial users of energy will pay a LOT more than domestic users) and the fact farmers will probably have to take up an increased share.

The actual impact on a household will probably depend on how much petrol you use. But even then gas prices are artificially inflated and are still 1/2 the price of gas in Europe.

Basically, if we don't start taking account of the true future cost of energy use then we're going to pay for it later. And remember, when farm subsidies were wiped out ~20 years ago everyone freaked out and said that all our farmers would go out of business and the economy would collapse. Instead they came up with the most competitive and profitable farming systems in the world. If we accept Kyoto now, in 10 years time we will be lean, green and competitive while everyone else struggles to come to terms with the fact of climate change.

And you'd probably be imediately voted out for gross over reaction.

As a leader, you have to assert your authority and act in favor of public safety.

Thats the point, they ARE being prosecuted, and they should be prosecuted.

I was saying 'funny that' with a bit of sarcasm, saying that it should be obvious to anyone that pretending to be a police officer and demanding money is illegal. You seem to think I'm defending them.

Sorry, I honestly thought that you were defending the separatists. How come we don't see you in the NZ Politics thread often?

Sorry, I honestly thought that you were defending the separatists. How come we don't see you in the NZ Politics thread often?

I didn't read it for a few days and then couldn't be bothered reading it all to catch up. It sort of snowballed from there. It happens a lot with me and big threads.

I didn't read it for a few days and then couldn't be bothered reading it all to catch up. It sort of snowballed from there. It happens a lot with me and big threads.

I don't like big threads for much of the same reason. If it's something close to home like NZ Politics then it's natural for me to cling on.