NationStates Jolt Archive


Something I wrote a while ago

Chellis
01-07-2005, 08:56
A theoretical conflict in Iran... Thought I might repost it, as a seperate topic...

Lets say its 1979. The Iranians have had their revolution, and hold many high-tech western technology. When the Iranians take the US hostages, Carter realizes he has to do something drastic in order to get re-elected. Many people are calling for direct intervention into Iran. He takes action.

A very large naval force comes near the middle east, soon heading up the strait of hormuz, and through the persian gulf. The Iranians, and the world, know whats happening. Its no surprise that a week before the US elections, American troops begin massive landings into Iran, with armour and aircraft making massive gains into Iran.

Russia realizes that an American-held Iran is dangerous, almost as dangerous as an Iranian-held Iran. It slowly pulls men off the western front, and shifts them to the Iranian border. Carter is re-elected on the war-seat, and five days later, after most of the Iranian military has been decimated(large divisions bombed to obliteration), Russia moves toward the americans in a massive attack.

Tehran is quickly captured. Massive russian divisions drive through the desert, while the best air power is brought into service. The soviet navy begins air attacks on the US navy and the small bases set up so far, while scrambling the rest of its navy to get to the scene.

The US finds it difficult to move men into Iran, although many divisions were already there to attack Iran. However, the Russian T-72's follow the T-55's and T-62's, who were meant to be the aircraft bait, and take on the M-60's. The Pattons do well, for the age difference, but slowly get taken out.

The soviets flank the US forces, who are mainly on the coast. Taking the East, they smash the side of the americans, while moving artillery to each position they take. Nations offer assistance to the US, though mostly only refueling and transport service. The US has the majority of its men in while the fighting is still tough. The national guard and reserves are rushed off, while the draft is quickly called. LArge protest breaks out in the US, mostly by college students who have friends being taken out of school.

The US takes defensive positions, trying to hold the coast so they can bring more in. Massive soviet artillery bombards US positions, while soviet submarines start attacking all US shipping in the pacific. The areas to the east of Japan are particularly stalked.

The Iranian army slows down the Russians somewhat. F-14's and Shah II's prove better than some of the best soviet equipment, though the crews are not as good. However, the soviets finally move in enough AA and Artillery to break the defensive positions of the Iranians, followed by large attacks of T-62's and T-55's. The T-72's, supported by the latest AA and APC's, continue to press on against the US.

Despite the large size of Iran, the fighting it contained to the coast mostly. The soviets are held above abadan and Bandar-abbas, leaving the US the majority of the coast. The Iranians finally pledge support for the Russians, but only so the russians do not raze their major cities. The US pleads for a second front in Europe, but the warsaw pact members have most their forces still in the west, and the US was in a way an aggressor.

The Russians finally break through the middle of the Abadan-abbas line, splitting the US forces in two. A massive artillery attack with rocket artillery and massive stationary guns, followed by Tu-22 and Tu-160 strikes weakens the line to a point where the remaining T-72's are able to break through it. The soviets are quick to reinforce their position with AA and artillery, and slowly begin to envelop the US forces, who are being overrun by the seemingly endless Soviets.

Russia pays a heavy price. About 30% of their airforce, armour, and guns are decimated. The number is worse than it sounds however, as the best equipment was often used first, to gain the initial advantage nessecary. The strength of their forces are lowered to 45% total. About 120,000 soviet soldiers die in the three weeks of fighting, and 200,000 are wounded or missing in action. The soviet navy is wiped out on the pacific, though the US merchant fleet is also deathly wounded.

The US, though losing, takes much less damage. About 20% of all equipment was lost, and while much of it was top of the line, it was fairly balanced. Their forces remain at about 60%. The US loses about 32,000 men, with 305,000 casualties. However, Carter is humiliated, with a number bordering 80% of the nation disapproving of his actions. Many drafted soldiers are told to go back, despite only a few weeks in boot, if that.

The middle-east, fearful of soviet incursion into their lands, opens a total embargo of oil to the US, after gaining NAP's with Russia. Israel is again attacked, due to the nations seeing that the US is not in a position to help. Israel prevails, though taking longer, and more damage than before.

The US is humiliated. Not expecting russian intervention, Carter made a gamble and lost. Many historians theorize how the US could have won. The decision to use tactical nuclear weapons was a possibility, but it likely would have led to escalation. The USSR repetedly claimed they would not fire missiles at, or invade, the US homeland. Some think that better control of the eastern flank, or more air support at the start of the war, could have done it. However, for every possibility, there is something the Soviets could have done better as well.
Hinderlan
01-07-2005, 08:58
Hmmm Ive seen that before...
Dragons Bay
01-07-2005, 09:58
Wow...interesting....

What did you write it for?
Olantia
01-07-2005, 10:39
Interesting but unlikely. In the event of the superpowers' intervention in Iran-1980 the most plausible scenario was a civil war and a subsequent division of Iran in two, like Korea and Vietnam. (BTW, Knebel & Bailey novel Seven Days In May (1963) had a division of Iran as part of its backstory.)
German Nightmare
01-07-2005, 10:53
First of all: Nice scenario - did you think it up and how did you come up with the idea?
(I myself ever once in a while enjoy plotting something like this, so this is really appreciated :))

(...)
Many historians theorize how the US could have won.
(...)
Some think that better control of the Eastern flank, or more air support at the start of the war, could have done it. However, for every possibility, there is something the Soviets could have done better as well.
Hehe, that is funny! I could swear I've heard this before over here!!!
Many historians theorize how Germany could have won.
Some think that better control of the eastern flank (Stalingrad), or more air support at the start of the war (Battle of Britain), could have done it. However, for every possibility, there is something the Allies could have done better as well.
There is a cartoon making fun of Hitler, depicting him sitting in the sewer systems of Berlin in the 1990s and constantly repeating to himself that he should have attacked Russia on the flank (which he of course did!).

To cut a long post short, if you feel like developing more scenarios like this be sure to share them with NS - they are always welcome and make an entertaining read :D

(P.S.: Godwin has no ruling in this post!)
Chellis
01-07-2005, 20:23
First of all: Nice scenario - did you think it up and how did you come up with the idea?
(I myself ever once in a while enjoy plotting something like this, so this is really appreciated :))


Hehe, that is funny! I could swear I've heard this before over here!!!
Many historians theorize how Germany could have won.
Some think that better control of the eastern flank (Stalingrad), or more air support at the start of the war (Battle of Britain), could have done it. However, for every possibility, there is something the Allies could have done better as well.
There is a cartoon making fun of Hitler, depicting him sitting in the sewer systems of Berlin in the 1990s and constantly repeating to himself that he should have attacked Russia on the flank (which he of course did!).

To cut a long post short, if you feel like developing more scenarios like this be sure to share them with NS - they are always welcome and make an entertaining read :D

(P.S.: Godwin has no ruling in this post!)

Actually, there was a thread on a possible soviet-american war in the 70's or 80's, and this was my theoretical situation if a conflict occured in iran, instead of the common european attack.
Chellis
02-07-2005, 05:38
bump
Marrakech II
02-07-2005, 05:46
So you think this would have happened if Reagan after being elected carried out his promise of a military strike on Iran? That is of course they still held onto the hostages.
Chellis
02-07-2005, 20:12
So you think this would have happened if Reagan after being elected carried out his promise of a military strike on Iran? That is of course they still held onto the hostages.

Im not sure. Despite everything Reagan said, im not sure he would have had the heart to go to war like that. I think he would have tried more diplomacy, and maybe afterward made strikes.