NationStates Jolt Archive

OK...so lately there have been a lot of topics relating to China, so I thought I'd throw my own out there.

Many people on this site have the impression that just because China's population allows them to have a large standing army, and a large pool of reserves, that this somehow automatically makes them an unstoppable military juggernaut.

These same people, often without any evidence, claim that China could take over Taiwan whenever it wanted...ignoring the fact that not only does China not have the amphibious landing capability to do so, but also that Taiwan has a significant military force of it's own.

This, of course, doesn't even take into account likely U.S. involvement in such a conflict.

China, however, IS modernizing their military at an increasing rate. They are principally focusing on their air-force and missile capabilities, but are improving their navy as well, since the Chinese Navy will require extensive improvements in capability before an invasion of Taiwan can take place.

So basically, the poll asks...

Do you believe China will have the capability to successfully invade Taiwan within the next 20 years?

EDIT: I just now realized...500th post...W00T!!! :)

If the Chinese really wnated it, they could take it, provided noone else interfered and they could ignore the international trade repurcussions.


There's lots of 'em, see.

I'm just taking a wild guess in saying that China's army is larger than Taiwan's entire population.

I voted no, but it's conditional. If China doesn't reform it's political system Taiwan won't willingly join the mainland. If China tries to invade they risk fighting the US as well as Taiwan. Not a good idea for China.

However, if the Chinese political system is reformed Taiwan may vote to join the mainland.

that would be one mother of an army! Theres about 30 million (?) people in taiwan.

China could, if they wanted to, but I dont think theyd want to risk their newfound capitalist wealth through embargos etc.

I'm just taking a wild guess in saying that China's army is larger than Taiwan's entire population.
Yeah, but they have to get there. Taiwan is armed with state of the art American weapons. If they can hold out for 5 days several US carrier battle groups will arrive and put PLAN on the bottom of the ocean and turn China's airforce into expensive fireworks.

that would be one mother of an army! Theres about 30 million (?) people in taiwan.

China could, if they wanted to, but I dont think theyd want to risk their newfound capitalist wealth through embargos etc.


It's probably untrue.

In 10 years, China will be the second largest economy in the world; In 20 years, they will have far more resources then they have today. Should they poll those to war, and considering that they would be fighting a war that for them would be regional, i say they can kick taiwan, and whoever tries to help them.

China cant get tiawan...they have no way to transport their troops and supplies across the ocean. plus i'd think we'd(U.S.) would get pretty pissy about it.

tainwan is are buddy.we like them.

(taiwan is a island right?)

EDIT:

These same people, often without any evidence, claim that China could take over Taiwan whenever it wanted...ignoring the fact that not only does China not have the amphibious landing capability to do so, but also that Taiwan has a significant military force of it's own.

never mind, i finished reading your post and say that i was correct. :D

Everyones forgetting Taiwans cheap toy trades... They can use this as highly penetrating plastic bullets from their various chimneys.

If the Chinese really wnated it, they could take it, provided noone else interfered and they could ignore the international trade repurcussions.


There's lots of 'em, see.

Chinese current estimated lift capacity for an amphibious invasion is estimated to be between 5000 and 15000 soldiers...

...not enough to invade an island that is one hundred miles away and has an army of nearly 400,000...even if an amphibious landing were coupled with airborne drops and air/missle strikes (all of which could be shot down)

I'm just taking a wild guess in saying that China's army is larger than Taiwan's entire population.

If China were to start a draft, yes...but currently the standing Chinese army, counting reserves and military police forces, numbers at about 5.2 million...Taiwan's population is nearly 30 million.

I voted no, but it's conditional. If China doesn't reform it's political system Taiwan won't willingly join the mainland. If China tries to invade they risk fighting the US as well as Taiwan. Not a good idea for China.

However, if the Chinese political system is reformed Taiwan may vote to join the mainland.

Yeah, but they have to get there. Taiwan is armed with state of the art American weapons. If they can hold out for 5 days several US carrier battle groups will arrive and put PLAN on the bottom of the ocean and turn China's airforce into expensive fireworks.

Both of these statements are quite true. The PLAN cannot currently hope to defeat the U.S. Navy. The air battle, however, would be extremely costly for both sides.

Money talks. I agree with the people who state it.
Besides, capitalism is the first step to more freedom...
If Chinas freedom levels reach or surpass Taiwans (democracy being optional) I don't see any problem.

A little BUMP...since there's a whole different group on at this hour.

oh god....*sigh*....not that china and taiwan thing again!

I hate Chen Shui Bien! :mp5: :mad: :sniper: :mad: :gundge: :mad:

I think the real question is--forget the rhetoric, would the US really be willing to go to war if China decided to absorb Taiwan? And my answer to that is, I don't know. I hope not, because any war with China would be beyond ugly, and no disrespect to our Taiwanese friends, but I don't know that potentially going nuclear is worth it to keep them from being reabsorbed into a nation that they were part of not so very long ago.

I think the real question is--forget the rhetoric, would the US really be willing to go to war if China decided to absorb Taiwan? And my answer to that is, I don't know. I hope not, because any war with China would be beyond ugly, and no disrespect to our Taiwanese friends, but I don't know that potentially going nuclear is worth it to keep them from being reabsorbed into a nation that they were part of not so very long ago.

That's a good question...and to be honest, I don't know either.

I think a more important question would be: If the U.S. doesn't go try to stop a Chinese attack on Taiwan...will anyone else?

There's a lot of countries in the region who would prefer that China not add military conquest to their current economic growth. Japan, Australia, India, Russia...basically all of SE Asia, the Phillipines.

If the U.S. were to stay out, would any of these countries risk war?

I would think not, but what if some were to ally? (India and Russia for instance)

That's a good question...and to be honest, I don't know either.

I think a more important question would be: If the U.S. doesn't go try to stop a Chinese attack on Taiwan...will anyone else?

There's a lot of countries in the region who would prefer that China not add military conquest to their current economic growth. Japan, Australia, India, Russia...basically all of SE Asia, the Phillipines.

If the U.S. were to stay out, would any of these countries risk war?

I would think not, but what if some were to ally? (India and Russia for instance)
My answer to your first question is "probably not." The US would have to take the lead in any military intervention. But something else to consider is that China could wind up retaking Taiwan without a fight--that's why I used the word "absorb." It would take time--lots of it--but at the rate at which China's economy is growing, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen nonviolently.

My answer to your first question is "probably not." The US would have to take the lead in any military intervention. But something else to consider is that China could wind up retaking Taiwan without a fight--that's why I used the word "absorb." It would take time--lots of it--but at the rate at which China's economy is growing, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen nonviolently.

I agree...intervention by other nations without the support of the US is highly unlikely...but I'm sure it's something China takes into account in regards to the issue.

I wonder if the whole "absorbtion" (sp? :p ) issue could work both ways. China's economy is growing, and as the "middle class" gains wealth, they may begin rumbling about a lack of political freedom.

This is something Taiwan could take advantage of, if they play it right.

I think the real question is--forget the rhetoric, would the US really be willing to go to war if China decided to absorb Taiwan? And my answer to that is, I don't know. I hope not, because any war with China would be beyond ugly, and no disrespect to our Taiwanese friends, but I don't know that potentially going nuclear is worth it to keep them from being reabsorbed into a nation that they were part of not so very long ago.
I think that the US would do what it has done in the past, at the first sign of trouble, move a chunk of the 7th Fleet into the straight and wait and see what the PRC does. There's too many laws and other such fun stuff to look the other way if China attempts a military conquest.

Besides, if China stops the staring contest it has with Taiwan, that will leave a large chunk of its military free to look elsewhere and I seriously doubt the US would want that to happen.

I would say that No, on the assumption that if Chinese Communist party want to hold onto any vestiges of power they have to maintain economic prosperity, any conflict with Tiawan will put such prosperity in danger. Even if they annexed the island I'm assuming America would lead the international community in utterly strangling China economically, (perhaps a more extensive ban as seen post-Tianamen Square on certain economically necessary resources or direct investment etc). At the moment I see China with too many social problems to risk a war over Tiawan.

HOWEVER, as a caveat, if the mounting social problems within China push the leadership down the increaing nationalist path they might be desperate enough to have a last throw of the dice to deflect any attention to a "rally round the flag" war for a historical piece of real estate.

I think its too much of a gamble and I agree with the other threads that at the moment (and probably in future) an opertional impossibility.

It's MAINLAND versus TAIWAN, not China!

I think the real question is--forget the rhetoric, would the US really be willing to go to war if China decided to absorb Taiwan? And my answer to that is, I don't know.


It depends on how quickly China could invade Taiwan and take control. If it is a quick affair, I don't think the US will interfere militarily. The liklihood is that the US will complain and rant and rave about China's aggressiveness and Taiwan's sovereignty, but things will calm down, whilst the Taiwan issue remains as a "difficult" subject like Tibet, mentioned from time to time.

If China invades and it turns messy and Chinese troops are bogged down, Taiwan missiles hitting Chinese mainland and vice versa, the US may intervene and send a presence of a Navy fleet, and attempt to broker a peace deal between the two.

I can't see the US waging war with China over Taiwan, as it will most likely very quickly spiral into acute bloodshed for both sides.

The US probably don't see Taiwan worth the risk of China's wrath and resulting war.

In any case, Taiwan would become a part of China and something for the US to invest in further than it does already trade and commerce wise, after a initial protest at the invasion of course.

In any case, Taiwan may well become a part of China soon enough without war.




any war with China would be beyond ugly


Totally agree.



but I don't know that potentially going nuclear is worth it to keep them from being reabsorbed into a nation that they were part of not so very long ago.

That is probably the US's private viewpoint, despite the public rhetoric in the past.

It depends on how quickly China could invade Taiwan and take control. If it is a quick affair, I don't think the US will interfere militarily.

It doesn't matter how quick China can move men accross over to Tawain. Plan and simple China can force submistion from Tawain in hours at most by a massive missle attack that, with knowing that China is a nuclear power, could relandscape the entire island of Tawain before any goverment powerful enough to help Tawain can step in and help in the least.

that would be one mother of an army! Theres about 30 million (?) people in taiwan.


Well there are 1.5 Billion and counting in China, it could be done if they really wanted to...have some doubts that they do have such an army now though

If China does it it's not going to be through military force. Their economy would be gutted in weeks, if not days. Given the feelings of the Taiwanese people I know, yeah, China's going to be a democracy before they come to terms.

Again, the US is obligated to defend Taiwan by treaty. The price you pay when the CIA potentially prevents WWIII. It won't go nuclear, because China knows what that would mean. Their ability to deliver their nuclear arsenal might well be destroyed by SLBMs before they unsheathed their saber, as well as inviting strikes against their leadership, conventional military, and industry. To say nothing of what China would lose by nuking Taiwan; which would defeat the whole purpose of rejoining the nation.

Even if left to it's own devices, which is highly unlikely, the Chinese would need to completely surpress Taiwans air defenses and air assets. Not to mention the potential threat posed by Japanese and Korean F-15s over a very large amount of airspace should they consider their own national interests threatened. Even if it's unlikely that thing would develope this way, China must be prepared for the potential threat and have assets in place or risk disaster. Beyond that, there is still the matter of artillary which would be murder on the landing craft. Think of how long the US had to prepare the battlefield in Iraq. China can't project air power in the same way, and man for man the Taiwanese might be more able opponants than not just the Iraqis but the Chinese. China would have to do even more preperation than the US did, with less ability to execute it. And no matter what, the Taiwanese would still know what the Chinese had to do. There is precious little deception available to them. And when a couple of artillary rounds can kill Chinese Marines by, literally, the boatload, they'd be walking into one of the bloodiest days and most lopsided defeats in human history, under comparitively good conditions.

Even if China did some how miraclously accomplish such a stunning feat, they'd still have to provide an occuping force. Which as Iraq demonstrates isn't particularly enviable. A force that wouldn't be guaranteeing order at home. In fact it's not a bad way for the mainland leadership to end up on the wrong side of a coup.

Any conflict with Taiwan where Taiwan might not have nuclear weapons and isn't mobilizing them against Bejing is a big loser for the mainland. They practically insure their doom for very little promise of a meaningful return.

Their saber rattling is purely for the benefit of the people who believe whats written in the People's Daily, and to request more investment. It should be entirely ignored by anyone who doesn't live in Asia and isn't considering directly investing in China.

It doesn't matter how quick China can move men accross over to Tawain. Plan and simple China can force submistion from Tawain in hours at most by a massive missle attack that, with knowing that China is a nuclear power, could relandscape the entire island of Tawain before any goverment powerful enough to help Tawain can step in and help in the least.

I hate to repeat myself, but Taiwan is NOT helpless.

They have advanced anti-air and missile intercepting capabilities, provided by the U.S., and have no fear of a nuclear attack, since for China to launch a nuke at Taiwan would not only destroy them (China) economically through the court of world opinion, but would defeat the whole point of trying to retake Taiwan in the first place.

A cruise missile strike is certain, should China attempt to invade, but to think that such a missile strike will completely obliterate the Taiwanese armed forces is absolutely absurd.

*snip*

Well said! :)

The Mainland is rapidly becoming Taiwan's largest trading partner, and also for vital resources such as fresh water. America and Japan's economic influence on the island is rapidly waning. Once you control an economy, politics will follow.

不費一兵一卒就可以把台灣收復! (To reclaim Taiwan without using one soldier)

It doesn't matter how quick China can move men accross over to Tawain. Plan and simple China can force submistion from Tawain in hours at most by a massive missle attack that, with knowing that China is a nuclear power, could relandscape the entire island of Tawain before any goverment powerful enough to help Tawain can step in and help in the least.


Why would China want to do this when there is so much investment to make in reclaiming the island in one piece? Economically or militarily?

Militarily, it will be harder.

As others have said, Taiwan is hardly defencless, although they don't have the wide technological gap they used to, if invaded, they could be a hard nut to crack.

If China really wanted to, and there was no foreign interference, they would win the island by just overwhelming it.

Artillery, and missile strikes, coupled with carpet bombing they'd level the entire island. It would be long, bloody, and as many have said, pointless. Today China is a lot better than it once was, and you can live a relatively free life there, if you don't decide to take a crack at the government, or visit anti-China websites, etc.

As many have said before, our influence in Taiwan is fading rapidly. Mainland China is becoming a massive trading partner, if China really wanted to, an embargo could crush the Taiwanese if foreign aid doesn't act quickly enough. I think it is just a growing superpower wishing to exercise its newly recognized strength. Its just China waving a stick around, and Taiwan bitching about it, niether side will do anything about it. Eventually Taiwan would see that they do all their business with Mainland China, and becoming economically if not politically part of the People's Republic. I think the party wouldn't mind if Taiwan became part of China that way.

LoL I don't know why I am fascinated by the anglicized prefix "Sino-" At any rate, have we EVER seen China step off the mainland to do ANY conquest in ALL of history?? And for the record, the forces attacking Japan, sent by one of those Khans, and destroyed by the ever-famous kamikaze, don't count at all, since the Khanate ruled China and therefore it was the Mongols attacking Nippon, not China. Also, the U.S. certainly wouldn't risk going to war with China, since the last time we faced China down over an ally in whom we had troops and political interests garrisoned , we promptly backed down and gave back every prewar inch of North Korea. It's just the same way we dealt with Russia during the Cold War: no real battles, no actual fighting, but espionage, intrigue, and generous mistrust on both sides to keep each other in line. And by the way, whoever mentioned a possible India-Russia alliance against Chinese military aggression should tell me whether Russia even knows what India is, LoL. I really have an extremely hard time seeing India and Russia pair up for friggin anything at all. Except maybe to kick out all their Muslims. Or intern them. Something to put them uder control. At any rate, China would never dream of actually militarily taking Taiwan back by force. It's completely out of the question, for reasons already mentioned in this thread. Taiwan will undoubtedly be absorbed into China's economic powerhouse that should spring up in the next few decades or more. Would Mexico ever think of trying to station troops in the territories we have taken from them over the years? No, but they are practically taking them over by force of immigration, that's for sure. Anyway, yes, if no one tries to extricate Taiwan from its growing dependance upon the world's biggest Communist nation, then I'm sure it will end up being assimilated in one form or another. Military just seems to be so old school these days, in current politics, a thing only practiced now by terrorists, small African nations and factions, and as a showcase of national power.

I posted this in a previous topic when the subject of Taiwan came up and my arguement on this subject was best summed up and so I used it again. I apologize beforehand for repetition.

"Just to add my opinion on the notion that China would easily overwhelm Taiwan...

To pull off such an invasion China faces technically something akin to the problem faced by Germany when Britain fought on in 1940. To launch a massive seaborne invasion on the scale needed to subdue a modern and major nation-state is among the most difficult military operations that can be contemplated. The simple fact that the distance between Taiwan and mainland China is far more vast than the English channel is but the beginning. The PRC would HAVE to land a vast number of men by ship to support an army logistically even if airborne assaults could be made. With modern missile technology this would require, to avoid an epic slaughter and profligate waste of well trained men and material, the PRC achieving total air supremacy over the area, made difficult by Tawain's fairly effective air force... Taiwan's navy could also make things difficult as the PRC though a land power does not have the naval capacity to protect such a force. This is even assuming that the United States does not send a carrier task force to aid Taiwan and likely spell doom to a Chinese landing expeditionary force. China probably could demolish Taiwan physically, and inflict horrendus losses, but not without great cost, and the possibility of Taiwan's air-force launching significant and highly damaging airstrikes on China's major trade centers, setting their economy back a number of years....Oh and I am sure that despite Taiwan's ambiguous status, the destruction of a democratically self-ruling land which is effectively sovereign..and its inception into a tyrannical state would not bode well for China's international standing and trade...if enough CNN and BBC reports detailing the suffering of Taiwan go out to the masses in the West. "


*New * I also read recently that in a study done by Taiwan's military that in a full-scale war, Taipei (Taiwan's capital) would fall after roughly three-weeks of intense combat, but... in the process the PRC would lose 2/3rds of its total military capacity, a rather embarrasing Pyrric victory in any light. It is also quite possible that if the PRC was able to occupy Taiwan after such a bloody conflict, that they could subsequently be dislodged by the United States, Japan, or South Korea being that the PLAN would likely no longer exist as a coherent force, the air force would have suffered a horrific attrition of pilots and first-rate aircraft, and PLA losses would likely be unspeakable. If the Weberian belief that military defeat fosters revolution holds true, it is quite possible that China's government would fall in such a scenario even if a foothold in Taiwan were gained.

LoL I don't know why I am fascinated by the anglicized prefix "Sino-" At any rate, have we EVER seen China step off the mainland to do ANY conquest in ALL of history?? And for the record, the forces attacking Japan, sent by one of those Khans, and destroyed by the ever-famous kamikaze, don't count at all, since the Khanate ruled China and therefore it was the Mongols attacking Nippon, not China. Also, the U.S. certainly wouldn't risk going to war with China, since the last time we faced China down over an ally in whom we had troops and political interests garrisoned , we promptly backed down and gave back every prewar inch of North Korea. It's just the same way we dealt with Russia during the Cold War: no real battles, no actual fighting, but espionage, intrigue, and generous mistrust on both sides to keep each other in line. And by the way, whoever mentioned a possible India-Russia alliance against Chinese military aggression should tell me whether Russia even knows what India is, LoL. I really have an extremely hard time seeing India and Russia pair up for friggin anything at all. Except maybe to kick out all their Muslims. Or intern them. Something to put them uder control. At any rate, China would never dream of actually militarily taking Taiwan back by force. It's completely out of the question, for reasons already mentioned in this thread. Taiwan will undoubtedly be absorbed into China's economic powerhouse that should spring up in the next few decades or more. Would Mexico ever think of trying to station troops in the territories we have taken from them over the years? No, but they are practically taking them over by force of immigration, that's for sure. Anyway, yes, if no one tries to extricate Taiwan from its growing dependance upon the world's biggest Communist nation, then I'm sure it will end up being assimilated in one form or another. Military just seems to be so old school these days, in current politics, a thing only practiced now by terrorists, small African nations and factions, and as a showcase of national power.

your assessment has some serious problems with it...

first of all, China has conquered Tibet, against the wishes of its people, and ruthlessly oppressed that area since the 1940s.

secondly, the US killed nearly a million Chinese troops during the Korean War and the current DMZ is not actually on the 38th Parallel (as it was prior to the Korean War) but around there using the most defensible terrain that was taken in battle by US, ROK and allied forces during the Korean War.

thirdly, (and this is a more general critique of several others who posted), economic dominance does not necessarily lead to political assimilation. The US dominated (and still does) the economies of Central America and the Caribbean since the 1870s yet all of those nations remain independent. The British dominated the economy of South America for most of the 19th and 20th Century and all of those nations retained their independence and increasingly Argentina (for example) depends on Chinese markets for its goods.

Taiwan is a democratic nation, with a popularly elected government, a constitution, and has been an ally of the US since the 1940s. The Nationalist Chinese who retreated there have been a US Ally even before that. China was an enemy to the US until the 1970s when Realpolitik made it necesssary for the US and China to ally to contain the Soviets.

Taiwan was essentially undeveloped and not much more than a pirate base until the late 19th Century. Although a dependency of China, it was no more Chinese than Tibet or Mongolia were. The Japanese took it over in 1896, and owned it until 1945. The Nationalist Chinese got it after World War II, and then retreated there in 1949.

Taiwan no more belongs to China than Siberia does (and China used to own a lot of it too). Taiwan should be allowed to be independent, and I sincerely wish the world would let them have that opportunity.

Chinese feelings be damned. They have no more rights to Taiwan than Argentina does to the Falklands, or Iraq had to Kuwait.

I posted this in a previous topic when the subject of Taiwan came up

It was your post in that thread that inspired me to start this thread. :)

...and my arguement on this subject was best summed up and so I used it again. I apologize beforehand for repetition.

"Just to add my opinion on the notion that China would easily overwhelm Taiwan...

To pull off such an invasion China faces technically something akin to the problem faced by Germany when Britain fought on in 1940. To launch a massive seaborne invasion on the scale needed to subdue a modern and major nation-state is among the most difficult military operations that can be contemplated. The simple fact that the distance between Taiwan and mainland China is far more vast than the English channel is but the beginning. The PRC would HAVE to land a vast number of men by ship to support an army logistically even if airborne assaults could be made. With modern missile technology this would require, to avoid an epic slaughter and profligate waste of well trained men and material, the PRC achieving total air supremacy over the area, made difficult by Tawain's fairly effective air force... Taiwan's navy could also make things difficult as the PRC though a land power does not have the naval capacity to protect such a force. This is even assuming that the United States does not send a carrier task force to aid Taiwan and likely spell doom to a Chinese landing expeditionary force. China probably could demolish Taiwan physically, and inflict horrendus losses, but not without great cost, and the possibility of Taiwan's air-force launching significant and highly damaging airstrikes on China's major trade centers, setting their economy back a number of years....Oh and I am sure that despite Taiwan's ambiguous status, the destruction of a democratically self-ruling land which is effectively sovereign..and its inception into a tyrannical state would not bode well for China's international standing and trade...if enough CNN and BBC reports detailing the suffering of Taiwan go out to the masses in the West. "


*New * I also read recently that in a study done by Taiwan's military that in a full-scale war, Taipei (Taiwan's capital) would fall after roughly three-weeks of intense combat, but... in the process the PRC would lose 2/3rds of its total military capacity, a rather embarrasing Pyrric victory in any light. It is also quite possible that if the PRC was able to occupy Taiwan after such a bloody conflict, that they could subsequently be dislodged by the United States, Japan, or South Korea being that the PLAN would likely no longer exist as a coherent force, the air force would have suffered a horrific attrition of pilots and first-rate aircraft, and PLA losses would likely be unspeakable. If the Weberian belief that military defeat fosters revolution holds true, it is quite possible that China's government would fall in such a scenario even if a foothold in Taiwan were gained.

The bolded section remains the reason why I scoff at all the people who say "A11 t7ey h6ve t0 d0 i5 l6unc4 a 8unc4 0f mi55le5!!!111!"

Surefire economic suicide for China...and it will NEVER happen.

Well then I feel quite honored...*bows*