NationStates Jolt Archive

This weekend, I got the chance to have a nice chat with my Uncle Greg, who flies C-5's for the Air Force reserves, and he seems to be of the opinion that we will be at war with China in the next quarter of a century or so. I happen to disagree with him. He bases this on the fact that within the last few years, the US-China relations have gone pretty bad, and that the U.S. is building up it's bases on the pacific basin. According to him, Rumsfeld, Bush and Co. are building up intel and space weaponry for such a war, since we couldn't win with sheer numbers, even if the draft was re-instated. He told me not to be suprised if this war broke out much sooner, and I'd be drafted. My Uncle also said that we aren't planning for it, but preparing for it, because as he says "we won't, or hopefully won't attack first".

Personally, I think my uncle is insane. But then again, he does know much, much more about the military than I do, as he's served for nearly 15 years. But then again, my uncle IS the most conservative racist Republican I've ever met.

What do y'all think? Are we headed for WWIII with China?

This weekend, I got the chance to have a nice chat with my Uncle Greg, who flies C-5's for the Air Force reserves, and he seems to be of the opinion that we will be at war with China in the next quarter of a century or so. I happen to disagree with him. He bases this on the fact that within the last few years, the US-China relations have gone pretty bad, and that the U.S. is building up it's bases on the pacific basin. According to him, Rumsfeld, Bush and Co. are building up intel and space weaponry for such a war, since we couldn't win with sheer numbers, even if the draft was re-instated. He told me not to be suprised if this war broke out much sooner, and I'd be drafted. My Uncle also said that we aren't planning for it, but preparing for it, because as he says "we won't, or hopefully won't attack first".

Personally, I think my uncle is insane. But then again, he does know much, much more about the military than I do, as he's served for nearly 15 years. But then again, my uncle IS the most conservative racist Republican I've ever met.

What do y'all think? Are we headed for WWIII with China?

Hmm...no, we're not that fucking stupid.

It's quite possible.

They want to knock us off as the top dog.

This weekend, I got the chance to have a nice chat with my Uncle Greg, who flies C-5's for the Air Force reserves, and he seems to be of the opinion that we will be at war with China in the next quarter of a century or so. I happen to disagree with him. He bases this on the fact that within the last few years, the US-China relations have gone pretty bad, and that the U.S. is building up it's bases on the pacific basin. According to him, Rumsfeld, Bush and Co. are building up intel and space weaponry for such a war, since we couldn't win with sheer numbers, even if the draft was re-instated. He told me not to be suprised if this war broke out much sooner, and I'd be drafted. My Uncle also said that we aren't planning for it, but preparing for it, because as he says "we won't, or hopefully won't attack first".

Personally, I think my uncle is insane. But then again, he does know much, much more about the military than I do, as he's served for nearly 15 years. But then again, my uncle IS the most conservative racist Republican I've ever met.

What do y'all think? Are we headed for WWIII with China?

I doubt it, I mean we already are in Afghanistan and Iraq, then the next leap is to China??? I fail to see any logic in this.

I doubt it, I mean we already are in Afghanistan and Iraq, then the next leap is to China??? I fail to see any logic in this.

His uncle did say quarter century. In 20 years, those two spots will probably be sorted out in some fashion or another.....

I doubt it, I mean we already are in Afghanistan and Iraq, then the next leap is to China??? I fail to see any logic in this.

Down the road. Not immediately.

And, obviously, you failed to read the part where I said he thinks we won't attack first. We're not that stupid.

His uncle did say quarter century. In 20 years, those two spots will probably be sorted out in some fashion or another.....

I have no doubts that if we go to war with China the big red buttons will be pushed, and we're gonna have to get used to sticks and stones for WW4.

I have no doubts that if we go to war with China the big red buttons will be pushed, and we're gonna have to get used to sticks and stones for WW4.

If it's going to happen. Not much we can do.

But think of the killer tans. ;) :eek:

We could have another cold war type thingy with them.

That would be fun. (Unless you are of draftable age).

Not unless we get some really ideological american presidents, who care more about combating China than the trade we get from them. China would only provoke a war when...

A. They were very certain they could win, which would mean either greatly strengthening their airforce or navy, so that america couldnt control both in such a war.

B. Beating america in war would be a greater benefit than the trade relationship.

Neither will happen for a while.

I miss the caves. Roll on WWIII!! DIE CIVILIZED HUMANITY DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE. Ahem.

...seriously though. It'd be cool. Like Stalin pretty much said: no people, no problem.

This is insane, poorly trained insurgents are giving us an assload of trouble in Iraq, how do you think we will fare against the highly nationalistic populalace of China without pusing the big red button?

I have no doubts that if we go to war with China the big red buttons will be pushed, and we're gonna have to get used to sticks and stones for WW4.

Go ahead and push that button! Then us cockroaches will rule the world.

Well, don't just lie there Kafka, say something!

I have no doubts that if we go to war with China the big red buttons will be pushed, and we're gonna have to get used to sticks and stones for WW4.

Yeah, that's probably true.

I think my uncle is a lunatic, for the most part, even though we do support mostly the same political ideals. But, war with China? I just don't see it happenning in the near future, and they're one of our biggest trade partners. A war with them would completely fuck over our economy.

However, China IS an emerging super-power, and could want a piece of the pie, and, for that matter, they just plain don't like us. Anyone remember the plane incident a few years back?

I doubt this will happen, unless we do something to piss the Chinese off, and they attack first.

Down the road. Not immediately.

And, obviously, you failed to read the part where I said he thinks we won't attack first. We're not that stupid.

I know that much, but I fail to see China attacking us. What reasons would they have to anyway?

I know that much, but I fail to see China attacking us. What reasons would they have to anyway?

Actually, that's true. Historically their beef is with the Europeans. I wouldn't like to be France, Germany, the UK, Russia or Portugal when China is top of the tree.

Actually, that's true. Historically their beef is with the Europeans. I wouldn't like to be France, Germany, the UK, Russia or Portugal when China is top of the tree.

I'm sure China could pull a Hitler in Europe if they wanted to, but there's really no reason for them.

Actually, that's true. Historically their beef is with the Europeans. I wouldn't like to be France, Germany, the UK, Russia or Portugal when China is top of the tree.

*Grabs chair, sips drink and waits for the show.*

*Grabs chair, sips drink and waits for the show.*

*Waits for pretty fireworks*

*Waits for pretty fireworks*

Hey, you changed your sig...


*Gets those awesome 3-d glasses*

I'm sure China could pull a Hitler in Europe if they wanted to, but there's really no reason for them.

I think they are still bitter about those unequal treaty things. And the opium wars. And stealing tea and porcelian. And extraterritoriality,

but yes, apart from that I am sure they are fine.

this reminds me of a book i finished today.The last world war. t was about alians, and of course some ass kicking marines getting their asses vaporised by the alians weapons all over the world. the jist of the story was some alians were having a civil war that consumed the entire planet. One side developes a portal to earth accidently and humans get involved. The theme was something like democracy verses cumminism.


rather interesting book.

damn im tired. going to fo read about tesov 3 for a while now...

Yes it is rather possiable. And now concern's grow over China's bid for Unocal, which will screw the American oil reserve, effectivly cutting them from the ability to wage war.


Big new's on CNN today...

China has stated repeatedly that Taiwan will be taken back. Nuf said about that.
On the other hand, China is pretty much taking the U.S. over anyway by simply purchasing us. It's not probable that we would stand for a military takeover from a foreign power but evidently we will sell the country.
I'd really hate to see us go to war against China as I really like the Chinese people. But personal likes and dislikes don't matter much if the rulers (from either side) decide to have a war.

Anybody played Battlefield 2? The US is at war with China, and some of the battles are interesting. ;)

I think they are still bitter about those unequal treaty things. And the opium wars. And stealing tea and porcelian. And extraterritoriality,

but yes, apart from that I am sure they are fine.

"Free tibet? I'll take it! Hello, China, I have something you may want, but it's gonna cost you. Yeah, that's right, all the tea!"

But seriously, do you think the U.S. could win such a war against China?

I doubt very seriously we are going to be going to war with China, ever. #1 They have over a million men to use in their army. #2 They are one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world.(they built their aircraft carrier on the bottom of the ocean, without anyone noticing and floated it to the surface) #3 They have absolutely nothing to gain from such a war.(better that they take over North Korea, and solve that threat, than attacking the U.S. or it's allies.) No, America may feel it's super power status threatened, but not to the extent of starting or encouraging a war which would have, as its conclusion the complete destruction of the entire world as we know it. We wouldn't attack China during the Vietnam conflict for the pure reason of... we would lose. Why would we do it within the next 100 years? We would still lose.

I think my uncle is a lunatic, for the most part, even though we do support mostly the same political ideals. But, war with China? I just don't see it happenning in the near future, and they're one of our biggest trade partners. A war with them would completely fuck over our economy.

It'd would hurt them far more then it would hurt us. Since were buying goods from them, if war broke out they'd lose a lot of money. No money means no war. Or at least a very short lived war. As for the nukes... wouldn't happen. Both of the countries have sane leaders. They'd want to conquer the world not destroy it. But whether who would win would depend more on the US citizens more then anything. It's been a hell of a long time since enemy troops have been on US soil and I know enough crazed rednecks who might start a war with our own government to think that everyone would be quiet if they invaded.

Hey, you changed your sig...

Yep. *akward silence*

Actually, that's true. Historically their beef is with the Europeans. I wouldn't like to be France, Germany, the UK, Russia or Portugal when China is top of the tree.
You forget that America backed the European powers in the Boxer war(s), did gunboat diplomacy (literally, that's where the word came from), supported the KMT against the CCP, backs Taiwan, and also rebuilt Japan.

They ain't too fond of us either.

Yep. *akward silence*

I'm not saying I'm not opposed to one, but I'm not opposed to one.

OOOGLE! WAR WITH AMERICA!

Not likely. We can't win.

I wouldn't be surprised if it came to another Cold War, which would have the potential for going hot. But as has been stated earlier in the thread this would first require China to find a market for their products to replace the United States...

But seriously, do you think the U.S. could win such a war against China?

Assuming no nukes. Yeah, the US could beat China. The difference in air power is just to great.

What we would do after smashing their army is another thing. (And I imagine our casuality lists would be far beyond what the public would tolerate).

Fifty years from now, I can't tell. Lots of things could happen. The US could maintain its millitary advantage with air-power. We might have enough allies to neutralize the manpower advantage. China might even tear itself apart before then becuase of the atrocious conditions and the gap between the urban elite and the rest of the country).

OOOGLE! WAR WITH AMERICA!

Not likely. We can't win.

Well what was the phrase said to the Russians?

"you don't have enough bullets to kill us and you don't have enough food to feed us."

Too lazy to google. ;)

China to find a market for their products to replace the United States...


Not very hard at all considering how many nation's buy cheap stuff from China.

You forget that America backed the European powers in the Boxer war(s), did gunboat diplomacy (literally, that's where the word came from), supported the KMT against the CCP, backs Taiwan, and also rebuilt Japan.

They ain't too fond of us either.

I am aware that there have been divergent views on policy between the US and China. Still, it hardly compares to the humilations heaped upon the middle kingdom by the Europeans and Japan.

I would imagine on the scale of scores to be settled, the US is fairly low.

Well what was the phrase said to the Russians?

"you don't have enough bullets to kill us and you don't have enough food to feed us."

Too lazy to google. ;)

THAT'S RIGHT! IF AMERICANS INVADE WE WILL RISE UP IN REVOLT! IT'LL BE A MILLION TIMES WORSE THAN IRAQ! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! SO DON'T EVEN DREAM OF IT!

Suppose China shut off all its exports to America. The inflation could already be enough to kill you all. :D

Actually, the Europeans and the Chinese are getting along pretty well. Earlier this month there was some thing where the Europeans are gonna stop an arms embargo with China.

More likely is this "Trade War" thing will happen for like 3 minutes until China has another revolution. That or goodbye San Fransico...

Not very hard at all considering how many nation's buy cheap stuff from China.

Products from china are cheap because it doesn't cost them a dime to make their products.

There was an interesting article in The New Republic the other day about how China is using it's diplomacy to gain support from nations arcoss the world who arn't too fond of America (i.e. Central Asian states, Sudan, etc.) as well as Southeast Asian states (most noteably Thailand, a typically pro-American country and one of our biggest Southeast Asian supporters throughout the cold war. They're favoring China over the U.S. 3:1 at this point, as well as Austrialia, a nation that has historically feared Chinese invasion more than any other issue.) Another important area they're gaining influence is Fiji, which would make for one hell of a nice airforce base, if ever exploited correctly.
Now that being said, there are several different scenerios for a U.S.-China war.
One would be Tiawan, which should be a no-brainer. The U.S. has stated publicly and repetedly that it would back Tiawan no-holds-barred from Chinese invasion. Now that being said, China would have to wait anyway because the Tiawanese Airforce, even without help of America's Sixth Fleet, could shread the Chinese airforce and bluewater navy apart at the same time. China would have to wait for a weak Democratic president and a major overhall in their bluewater navy before they could ever even take Tiawan. As it is, the U.S. almost spends more on defense than the rest of the world combined. That would have to change too.
Second would be a resource war, presumably over oil. One such scenerio would be the exploitation of the Spratly Island oil reserves, which are rumored to be as large as the Persian Gulf oil reserves. China, the U.S., Thailand, Taiwan, the Phillipeans, and Vietnam all claim these islands either in part or in whole, and there would certainly be a war if Persian-Gulf style oil is found there.
Another scenerio is Korea. (A war that will pit the North and China against the South and the U.S. and Japan.)
Another scenerio is if Japan decides to re-arm it's military with the latest weapons: including the infamous nuclear type. This will shift the balence of power in Asia so quickly that China may be forced to react, possibly to even keep the integrity of it's nation intact. Japan could easily create a military equal to the Chinese, if not greater. (Japan relies on promises of U.S. intervention and involvment on their side in order to ward off any attacks from outside powers, i.e. China, and to stop hardliners from this rearming process. There is currently a growing movement in Japan to re-arm, and it's only getting stronger as other regional powers like North Korea and China gain strength.)
The most likely thing that will happen (IMO) is a huge trade war (cold) between China and the U.S., one that America will have a distinct disadvantage in because we have significantly less production capability, our mainstay technology industry is being outsourced to Thailand and India, and our innovations are being challenged by both the Chinese and the Japanese. The American public will almost certainly be worse off in 20 years than they are now if China continues it's advancement as it is now. They arn't happy about the whole Taiwan issue, the Boxer issue, and the U.S.'s claims of "an unfair trade imbalence", and they're already setting themselves up as the anti-America (which sounds an awful lot like cold-war rhetoric the way it is.) The one thing that will keep us from an all-out war however is the same thing that kept us out of a war with the Soviets: Mutually-Assured Destruction, both of the physical, and the economical kind. We need Chinese production power, they need our market, and later our technology and innovations, as well as probably our most modern arms, even if it is a 3rd party buying system.

I won't post more, because there's plenty as-is, but you get the idea: there are many scenerios for war with China.

Oh, and as for the million-man-army China has: it doesn't matter. They have no way of transporting them to American soil or even Tiawanese soil without America (or Tiawan) tearing their transports apart. It's only relevant when talking about how China could influence other Southeast Asian and Central Asian countries.

ok here's a question then
if at some point in the future it is inevitable that China will be more powerful economically and militarily and will have, at some time, the will and means to take over the USA, should the USA launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike now, say destroying 10 major cities along the coast and destroying the Chinese nuclear stockpiles, in order to prevent a war with much greater destruction and consequences in the future for the rest of the world and the USA?
This is a nice question one of the historians at uni poses to local newspapers from time to time to stir up some debate and discussion :)

A pre-emptive nuclear strike is never a good idea against a nation that has nukes, or indeed against one without them. The moment China saw that our nukes had been launched they'd simply launch their own and you have M.A.D.

The time for pre-emptive nuclear strikes by the U.S. passed when the Soviets got the bomb.

ok here's a question then
if at some point in the future it is inevitable that China will be more powerful economically and militarily and will have, at some time, the will and means to take over the USA, should the USA launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike now, say destroying 10 major cities along the coast and destroying the Chinese nuclear stockpiles, in order to prevent a war with much greater destruction and consequences in the future for the rest of the world and the USA?
This is a nice question one of the historians at uni poses to local newspapers from time to time to stir up some debate and discussion :)
What the hell.... China won't have the will to take over the US, so you can settle at that -_-'


nutz...

If we prevent them from accessing some fundamental markets (mostly oil), they might be pushed to the point that they will attack us. Of course the temptation is great to secure all oil supplies and channels and say to the Chinese "hands off our stuff".

I think it's important that China gets what it needs, at a decent price, on the world markets. Otherwise it will be pushed to brinkmanship.... and then who knows what kind of global carnage would happen.

A dying dragon can crush you with its tail. Especially if he knows he's dying from your sword.

I would not be surprised in the least if the United States and China went to war within the next quarter century. I also wouldn't be surprised if relations between the United States and China disintegrated into a second Cold War or became known as the Warm War.

Frankly, I've been saying for YEARS that China was the biggest threat to the United States ever since the Soviet Union fell apart. Despite people who poo-poohed me or despite "reassurances" from our government (both the George H.W. Bush administration and the Clinton administration come to mind) about China, I've felt the U.S. should be taking a more hard-line stance against China.

For the United States to defeat China, they would need allies. The only ones I see who would be most likely on the U.S.'s side would be Great Britain. Perhaps Germany, Canada and Holland depending on the provocation. I'm not confident in France being on our side at all.

If we prevent them from accessing some fundamental markets (mostly oil), they might be pushed to the point that they will attack us. Of course the temptation is great to secure all oil supplies and channels and say to the Chinese "hands off our stuff".

I think it's important that China gets what it needs, at a decent price, on the world markets. Otherwise it will be pushed to brinkmanship.... and then who knows what kind of global carnage would happen.

A dying dragon can crush you with its tail. Especially if he knows he's dying from your sword.

Wow, I've now been inspired to wear the right size shoes. *sorry*

I'm not confident in France being on our side at all.
It all depends on the situation.
If China attacks the US, US interests or any Western nation (especially European), France would without a doubt come to the rescue, along with Germany and the UK. And probably Poland too.

Nah, there won't be a China vs. USA war because the Chinese are too smart for that. I've been saying for years that they'll just buy America out from under the Americans noses, and I still think its a possibilty. Gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "Economic Imperialism".

First off, China isnt as warcrazy as the US in 1996 when the US moved an entire fleet into the Taiwan Strait (chinese territorial waters) china did nothing

If China was to instate a draft, they could bring over 100 million people into the armed forces. so attacking wouldnt be a good idea ^-^

China also has the abillity to simply hurl solders at an enemey, this was the tactic China used during Korea, china can afford to suffer huge ammounts of casualties, (36 million died in WWII in china and we aint complainin')

also, if the US made war with China, Taiwan and Japan (american allies) would be wiped of the face of the planet, Chinese still hold a pretty strong grudge.

It all depends on the situation.
If China attacks the US, US interests or any Western nation (especially European), France would without a doubt come to the rescue, along with Germany and the UK. And probably Poland too.

I'd assume that most western democracies would help us if we were the ones being atacked.

My dad told me the same thing. The U.S. seems to want to take over the world and make themselves the only one who has the power. I think U.S. has reasons to attack China:

@Vietnam War
@Korean War

But I'm trying to think that it will not happen. I am Chinese American and I wish this will NEVER happen. China and U.S. are currently beneiftting from each other from the trades. China has problems with Japan, which is currently under support by U.S., on the other hand, China is supporting North Korea, while U.S. supports the South. But at this time, China is very powerful... Defence Budget is at the All Time High. And guess what? Rumsfield and Bush complained why China is putting so much money on their defence budget. This shouldn't be a worry for the U.S., but why ask in the first place?

China always had remained on the opposing side against the U.S., unlike the U.S.... China has a Space Program, but the technology is still developing. China is a strong country on defence, and if U.S. does make a move on them, they'll be ready, especially when China has all their suspicion on U.S. after a Chinese aircraft was shot down by U.S. Airforce in the South China Sea.

China doesn't need to fight a hot war to win the world. It's already doing so by diplomacy and trade. Sun Zi said in his Art of War: the highest grade of winning a war is to win without battling.

they'll just buy America out from under the Americans noses



Unocal is first, like I said earlier. That goe's America's ability to wage war is drasticlly cut.

I am aware that there have been divergent views on policy between the US and China. Still, it hardly compares to the humilations heaped upon the middle kingdom by the Europeans and Japan.

I would imagine on the scale of scores to be settled, the US is fairly low.
I dunno, the CCP seems to have no problem shifting the blaim game around to whomever the party wants to demonize at the time. If war was coming, or the CCP decided to do so...

Besides, China seems to be an equal opertunity revenge seeker. ;)

http://www.washtimes.com/specialreport/20050626-122138-1088r.htm

We are dealing with another case of extreme Asian nationalism. Also, some defector named Chen Yonglin claims that China views the US as public enemy #1 and is trying to persuade Australia to not to help the US with the Taiwan issue, but the link to that is down...

However, no one really knows what kind of weapons we Americans have. After all we kept the Stealth project secret for 15 years before 1991, even from the Soviets! We should have UFO's, some sort of Metal Gear type thing and etc by now.

I dunno, the CCP seems to have no problem shifting the blaim game around to whomever the party wants to demonize at the time. If war was coming, or the CCP decided to do so...

Besides, China seems to be an equal opertunity revenge seeker. ;)

No, the US did a lot of things since the 1950s to physically stop China from stepping onto the world's stage, and coupled with some of the disastrous policies of the leadership, helped to slow China's growth.

Also, some defector named Chen Yonglin claims that China views the US as public enemy #1 and is trying to persuade Australia to not to help the US with the Taiwan issue, but the link to that is down...
Well, that guy has a problem in his head. He does. He is actually trying to influence Australian public opinion by talking out of his ass about spies, conspiracies and Chinese imperialism. The nerve, a traitor blabbing on about that kind of stuff.
Don't pay attention to the guy, I say Australia can send him into one of their concentration/detention camps and let him rot there. After all, he could steal a true blue Aussie job.

The US budget rite now cudnt support a war, especially one of that scale. They only releif would come from winning the war and demanding some serious tribute. However, in 50 years with help from smart leadership that could help the economy and the military *crosses fingers for dem party* we could wage a formidable war.

I also beleive that we havent released the true merits of military research to the world, and that we probably have at least one super weapon (or anti missle system) that nobody knows about (i.e the "Aurora") we did it with stealth and the blackbird.

I beleive we would be on the defensive in a US China war, as their invasion could be stopped with our Navy and Army, but ours would be met with a 300 million man army. China could also call in a more drastic draft, including all healthy men from 15 to 40 (or somthing like that). They're totalitarian, they can break their own rules in desperation.

Also, some defector named Chen Yonglin claims that China views the US as public enemy #1 and is trying to persuade Australia to not to help the US with the Taiwan issue, but the link to that is down...
A lot of defectors, "reliable sources", contacts and "opposition group members" are actively seeking personal glory and influence. What they say is often twisted and untrue. Just look at Chalabi.

I dunno, the CCP seems to have no problem shifting the blaim game around to whomever the party wants to demonize at the time. If war was coming, or the CCP decided to do so...

Besides, China seems to be an equal opertunity revenge seeker. ;)

I am sure that the peasantry hate whomever they are told to at that moment. In terms of long standing insults though, the Europeans have far more to worry about than the US does.

China has a long memory and is an old country that seems to stay the same regardless of what happens. I am not even convinced that becoming nominally communist changed it all that much. While it is convienent for china to engage the US in terms for supremecy in the geo-political arena, there can be no doubt that until the issue of European colonialism and the unequal treaties are fully addressed, it will continue to hold long standing grudges.

I think the real question is if the U.S and China did come to war, who's side would the rest of the world nations take.

My take, there'll be no military conflict between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America anytime soon (say 15 years).

Unless 'President' Chen-Shui-Bien of Taiwan decides to do something insane like declare Taiwanese independence. The US really should stay out of THAT scrap unless you want the 7th fleet to become permanant features of the bottom of the Pacific. Cite all the reasons you want, the Chinese military might have inferior technology but the US military has become overconfident in the extreme. Crikey, the last time you had a naval engagement of any size was Vietnam. (Gulf of Tonkin and the Mekong Delta riverboats)

Sure, the People's Liberation Army (PLA for short) has 1 million combat troops in active service, and ten times that in reserves (the Chinese equivalent of the National Guard). Most of you are forgetting they probably can't feed, arm, transport all those men that effectively. So they'd probably be effective on the defensive, and would only be useful if the US tried to land troops, which would be strategically infeasible since they'd be overrun pretty quick.

Not Likely. China depends on us too much. We control too many strategic reserves. Sure, China has manpower, which is great for manufacturing, but China has absoutly NO strategic oil Reserves, just a few wells in Tibet. We also have the largest and best navy in the world(6 Carriers, bitch). We have the more advanced and largest(in terms of planes) Air Force in the world. China's best Fighter is an advanced MiG-19. Europe would side with us, which would furthur cripple and Chinese Wartime economy. At the rate China is going, her resources would be pretty much depleated, and American Air Power would furthur cripple any capebility to wage war. China's army is large, but badly trained and equiped. To Think of the state of China's Wartime capicaty, think of the Soviet Union from 1939-1941, without the magic Urals to protect all her assets and industries, so basically European Russia.

My take, there'll be no military conflict between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America anytime soon (say 15 years).

Unless 'President' Chen-Shui-Bien of Taiwan decides to do something insane like declare Taiwanese independence. The US really should stay out of THAT scrap unless you want the 7th fleet to become permanant features of the bottom of the Pacific. Cite all the reasons you want, the Chinese military might have inferior technology but the US military has become overconfident in the extreme. Crikey, the last time you had a naval engagement of any size was Vietnam. (Gulf of Tonkin and the Mekong Delta riverboats)

Sure, the People's Liberation Army (PLA for short) has 1 million combat troops in active service, and ten times that in reserves (the Chinese equivalent of the National Guard). Most of you are forgetting they probably can't feed, arm, transport all those men that effectively. So they'd probably be effective on the defensive, and would only be useful if the US tried to land troops, which would be strategically infeasible since they'd be overrun pretty quick.

In Operation Desert Storm, we barely saw Ground Troops in Action. "Modern Warfare" is a super-advanced Blitzkrieg, with Aircraft taking the place of Tanks. In any future war, Aircraft will fight the battles. Ground Troops are only there to secure the ground of the destroyed enemy. You won't need a landing until the PLA has been destroyed(which is highly likely, seeing as it hasn't evolved much since Korea, when Thousands upon Thousands of Chinese soldiers were just obliderated.

A couple of people have mentioned Europe. I think, if the US and China went to war, Europe would stay /out/ of it.

Why? Well, partly because the people would revolt if their governments decided to get involved in a war with a high chance of going nuclear. Partly because we, really, couldn't make much impact. Sure, we could probably lend China our fleets so they could invade the US, or get Russia to let us cross to open up a land front... but what would be the point? Our fleets would be sunk, our armies would be flattened. We'd lose. And even if we didn't get crushed instantly, we'd have to be /completely sure/ that our side was going to win - if they lost, we'd be next on the list. We would, I think, sit here, build up weapons, and be equally polite and noncommital to both sides.

The really scary thing would be if two countries supported different sides. That would mean another European war. No one wants that, either.

As for whethere US v. China would happen, or who would win, I don't know enough about either to guess. But if it went nuclear, we'd /all/ lose.

I am sure that the peasantry hate whomever they are told to at that moment. In terms of long standing insults though, the Europeans have far more to worry about than the US does.

China has a long memory and is an old country that seems to stay the same regardless of what happens. I am not even convinced that becoming nominally communist changed it all that much. While it is convienent for china to engage the US in terms for supremecy in the geo-political arena, there can be no doubt that until the issue of European colonialism and the unequal treaties are fully addressed, it will continue to hold long standing grudges.
Oh I don't doubt a string China wouldn't turn on Europe, I just don't think the CCP would target Europe first.

Of course the whole conversation is pretty much worthless as the CCP shows no signs of ever wanting a military revenge. China never really operated that way, infulance and a restoration of pass glories (with most of the world acepting China as top dog) would satsify China.

I see your uncles logic. America want to keep their position in the world as leader in things such as money, military etc, they wioll do anything to stop another nation from prospering, for example Irag, and then they use stupid reason like WMD, how lame, they will have a cold war in the next decade and Britain will be up Americas arse to back them up just like in the Iraq war. Lets just hope the Americans dont bomb as many Brits this time.

In Operation Desert Storm, we barely saw Ground Troops in Action. "Modern Warfare" is a super-advanced Blitzkrieg, with Aircraft taking the place of Tanks. In any future war, Aircraft will fight the battles. Ground Troops are only there to secure the ground of the destroyed enemy. You won't need a landing until the PLA has been destroyed(which is highly likely, seeing as it hasn't evolved much since Korea, when Thousands upon Thousands of Chinese soldiers were just obliderated.

Of course, on the other hand, we have really patriotic people around - fanatics when provoked, and that economically and diplomatically China is gaining much control of America - 不戰而勝 (winning without fighting)

I see your uncles logic. America want to keep their position in the world as leader in things such as money, military etc, they wioll do anything to stop another nation from prospering, for example Irag, and then they use stupid reason like WMD, how lame, they will have a cold war in the next decade and Britain will be up Americas arse to back them up just like in the Iraq war. Lets just hope the Americans dont bomb as many Brits this time.
Yes, Iraq was prospering. Because dictators always make such great decisions while torturing citizens. Can't beat that 6,000 Dinar = 1 US Dollar Exchange rate!

China vs. US? Rofl... start digging that nuclear shelter and get some sticks and stones to fight for your food afterwards. If the US and China start a war, it'll be the end of the world due to mutually assured destruction. China is not the toothless tiger the US-public wants to think most of the time. If you attack them, you'll be covered in nukes real quickly and that's that. No more US and probably no more China. Not that it would bother me all that much if the US would be eradicated during a war it started or against an opponent that can actually fight back, but the radiation happens to spread over the globe and affects us too. I think you US-people need to suffer a real war on your own turf before you realize the devastating effects of a nuke or firebombing and the like. :rolleyes:

Ein Deutscher']China vs. US? Rofl... start digging that nuclear shelter and get some sticks and stones to fight for your food afterwards. If the US and China start a war, it'll be the end of the world due to mutually assured destruction. China is not the toothless tiger the US-public wants to think most of the time. If you attack them, you'll be covered in nukes real quickly and that's that. No more US and probably no more China. Not that it would bother me all that much if the US would be eradicated during a war it started or against an opponent that can actually fight back, but the radiation happens to spread over the globe and affects us too. I think you US-people need to suffer a real war on your own turf before you realize the devastating effects of a nuke or firebombing and the like. :rolleyes:

I agree. We'd all be dead!

I have no doubts that if we go to war with China the big red buttons will be pushed, and we're gonna have to get used to sticks and stones for WW4.
didn't Nostradamus say that the world would end when 'the yellow man inherited the earth' or somesuch nonsense.

that aside, modern warfare between nuclear powers is fucking stupid.

I have no doubts that if we go to war with China the big red buttons will be pushed, and we're gonna have to get used to sticks and stones for WW4.
Oh of course, I have doubts that either would go down without a nuclear war. Especially America I have to say, I trust them less on a foreign scale.

I have some doubts. I dont think China would declare war on America as it fears them and needs their trade. However nor will America declare war on China unless they are as stupid as they can ever be as they wont necessarily win. Europe might not back America up on this one, certainly France likes the idea of China as a world rival to America and wants to start weapons trading again and Britain is not exactly against the idea. Britain is getting on better terms with China over time. I hope to god if America does go to war they let themselves boil in their own pot instead of bringing us into it. Then again, I dont wish war nor warmongerers like Bush on the American people.

My take, there'll be no military conflict between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America anytime soon (say 15 years).

Unless 'President' Chen-Shui-Bien of Taiwan decides to do something insane like declare Taiwanese independence. The US really should stay out of THAT scrap unless you want the 7th fleet to become permanant features of the bottom of the Pacific. Cite all the reasons you want, the Chinese military might have inferior technology but the US military has become overconfident in the extreme. Crikey, the last time you had a naval engagement of any size was Vietnam. (Gulf of Tonkin and the Mekong Delta riverboats)
Probably not ever. The last thing China would want would be to screw up it's economy which is the only effective counterbalance to tremendous internal pressures.

But, the US does have a treaty obligation to defend Taiwan from China. Stemming in part from a deal the US made in response to Taiwan promising never to restart their program to construct a nuclear weapon, following the dismanteling of the program in 1992 by the CIA. (Which they may well have restarted anyway)

The only chance China would have against the US Navy in any near future engagement is through the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, which would insure a return all out response from the US, which might include a strike from the most destructive weapons ever built, ballistic missle submarines, and could potentially decapitate China aresenal before they could do anything but die.

A training and technology advantage typically produces a kill ratio that starts at 10 to 1. Considering some of the weapon systems for defending against missles that are reaching maturity, that the US has a real superfighter a full generation ahead of the Chinese, and a massive information and logistical advantage, even in a fight is China's back yard the advantage might be much greater than 10 to 1 at the begining of hostilities. In light of all this, buying up dollars and tying the yuan to the dollar is a much safer strategy.

The whole USA vs. China thing is quite unlikely. The two countries need each other, and both will suffer a lot of money lost if relations go south, especially China.

If the USA and China go at it:

Nuclear weapons will likely not be used. The Chinese have roughly 24 ballistic missiles, half of which are on one old, unreliable, noisy SSBN. That will get sent to the bottom without much in the way of effort. Of the remaining 12, six are pointed at Russia. They are literally POINTED at Russia in their silos, because their missile/guidance technology is not good by any stretch of the imagination. Of the ones that are launched, is it safe to assume that since Japan and some other SE-Asian countries have been pushing the USA to develop anti-ballistic missile technology, that they would have such items as well? The USAF's Airborne Laser can shoot down missiles in the launch stage. The Aegis cruisers and Patriot PAC3 missiles have a small chance to shoot down an inbound warhead. Additionally, I am sure that there are prototype "kill-vehicles" and ground-based directed-energy weapons sitting in Nevada somewhere, waiting for testing. Even if all 6 missiles get through to their targets in the USA, the Americans have sh!tloads of warheads left over from the bad old days of the Cold War. China could take out 6 urban centres, while the USA could turn the whole country to radioactive ash. The nuclear option is not open.

Conventionally, China's military is large, but that does not make it necessarily effective. The Americans learned in Korea that the answer to sheer numbers is the effectiveness of the individual (something that Asian philosophy tends to underrate) and firepower. Let's break this down:

The PLA Navy is a coastal-defense fleet, with nothing remotely resembling the concept of Power Projection. In simple terms, the U.S. Navy can do a lot to hurt the Chinese on land, while the Chinese navy (minus its single noisy SSBN) cannot seriously threaten any country's land assets. The PLAN has no ships bigger than a frigate, nor any quiet and/or effective submarines. Bombardments of PLAN shore facilities by Tomahawk missiles would put them out of business in a hurry.

The PLA Air Force's front-line aircraft are ex-Russian SU-27's. Qualitatively, they can hold their own against such Western aircraft as the F-15. Then again, MiG-15 pilots in the Korean War were dealt with handily by more experienced American pilots flying the F-80s and F-84s. By the time the F-86 arrived, the MiG-15s no longer stood a chance against an equal aircraft with better pilots. The PLAAF has limited numbers of SU-27s. They have more J-8II's (developed with help by Northrop Grumman until the Tiananmen Square massacre), and yet more MiG-19 & -21 aircraft, and their Chinese copies. They would not stand much of a chance against carrier squadrons / USAF aircraft working with better weapons, better pilots, and the invaluable advantage afforded by AWACS coverage. China is outclassed both on the air and at sea.

Finally, this brings us to the PLA itself. China is immune to a land attack right now, unless the Americans "liberate" their way through Central Asia, or Russia miraculously has its huge army again. Fighting the Chinese would be much different from fighting Iraqis. First of all, the Americans were training and equipping for 40 years to defeat a large, fairly well-equipped and trained communist army. They didn't really know how to handle guerilla warfare a la Vietnam and modern Iraq. Quite simply, the Americans know how to fight the Chinese. Doctrine of all NATO countries involves fighting a much larger force and minimizing casualties while maximizing effectiveness. China's regular army actually outnumbers the regular U.S Army and Marine Corps by about 3 or 4 times. The doctrine, technology and training superiority enjoyed by Western armies (and western-modeled armies, such as that of South Korea, Japan, etc.) will hopefully make up for the numerical disparity. The real problem would be the actual invasion of China itself. Millions upon millions of reservists can be called up, and even if the Americans hold up under the sheer numbers, they will have to sit in a defensive posture for a VERY long time. One would expect PsyOps (propaganda) to play a major role in the US strategy.

In the end, this whole schism is all about Taiwan. In my opinion, it would be a sad day when a prosperous, happy nation is forcibly taken over and forced into economic servitude, so that the Chinese government can sh!t all over their people's freedom as well. The whole line about Taiwan being a renegade province is bullsh!t. Mao was the renegade, who overthrew the old government, which still controls a small part of China. Therefore, the real rebels are the communists. Even if the Chinese did decide to take Taiwan, they would have to consider the massive losses they would take. Obviously, Taiwan has contingency plans for such an event. The U.S. Navy would stop an amphibious and/or parachute attack cold. Landing craft and transport aircraft are so vulnerable in modern warfare that the Chinese would likely suffer losses in the tens or even hundreds of thousands.

To put it quite simply:

U.S. Air Force > The PLA Air Force
U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet > The PLA Navy
U.S. Army & Marine Corps, qualitatively > The PLA
U.S. Army & Marine Corps, quantitatively < The PLA
USAF Space Command > The non-existent Chinese military space assets
The USA's nuclear arsenal > China's 24 old nukes
The individual American Soldier > The individual Chinese soldier

When new toys like the F-22 (Air-Dominance fighter), JSF (Joint Strike Fighter), OICW/XM8 (infantry rifles), the new bomber the USAF has in early development, the Virginia Class SSN, the fast, mobile Light Assault Vehicles, and so on, become active, one can expect the USA's lead to move even farther ahead.

This whole USA vs. China thing has only occured in three places:

The Korean War (Too long ago to be much of an indicator now or in the future)
The Bear and the Dragon (Tom Clancy novel; the actual war between USA/Russia and China was short and over-simplified, IMHO)
C&C Generals (A game with no storyline whatsoever. I was disappointed.)

EDIT: I have to laugh at the concept of the People's Republic of China. The government is not representative of "The People". Rather, "The People" are subjugated and their rights pissed on by the "Revolutionary Elite". China is not a republic, as the definition of a republic is, in a broad definition, "a state or country that is led by people who do not base their political power on any principle beyond the control of the people living in that state or country". While the politicians do their damndest to keep the yoke of oppression on their people, their principles are markedly and distasefully Marxist-Leninist.

Right... the Chinese are in the stoneage and don't have more than 24 nukes... my god, what propaganda. A billion people known for being mass producers and copiers of everything, and they don't have a military rivaling that of the US? I think, you're so sure of your own military and the inferiority of the Chinese, because the Chinese - wise as they are - don't shout out to the world what kind of military equipment they have. You'll probably stand there, "shocked and awed" with eyes as big as dishes, when the Chinese - in case of war - reveal their deadly arsenal. That would be funny for once and justice in action.

This whole USA vs. China thing has only occured in three places:

The Korean War (Too long ago to be much of an indicator now or in the future)
The Bear and the Dragon (Tom Clancy novel; the actual war between USA/Russia and China was short and over-simplified, IMHO)
C&C Generals (A game with no storyline whatsoever. I was disappointed.)
Bwahahahaha. You forgot the Boxer Rebellion!!

Ein Deutscher']Right... the Chinese are in the stoneage and don't have more than 24 nukes... my god, what propaganda. A billion people known for being mass producers and copiers of everything, and they don't have a military rivaling that of the US? I think, you're so sure of your own military and the inferiority of the Chinese, because the Chinese - wise as they are - don't shout out to the world what kind of military equipment they have. You'll probably stand there, "shocked and awed" with eyes as big as dishes, when the Chinese - in case of war - reveal their deadly arsenal. That would be funny for once and justice in action.


Teeheehee. YEAAH!

In the unlikely event that a hot war took place the real question would be India's reaction.

I can assure you of these things:

China has more to loose to India or Russia than it stands to gain confronting the US.

The major threat to US dominance is the EU, not because of guns and bombs but Banks and the international war crimes tribunal.

Europe has nothing to fear from the PRC, both are pragmatic politically and disinclinded to undo their compromise.

Both China and the US face their greatest threats at home, China has pro-democracy movements, constant threat desease outbreaks like birdflu, population "bend" due to male children being held in greater esteem than female childrem. The US's problems are aging population, obesity, debt based ecconomy and the threat of theocratic rule emmerging as the dominat political school of thought.

they don't have a military rivaling that of the US?

They do. They could put up a damn good fight, but the plain fact is that superior doctrine, training, technology, and information (now the most important element of a military operation) can defeat sheer numbers. The Chinese are modernizing, but are still behind the USA. The whole scenario of a ground war between the USA and China is very unlikely. The main battles would be fought in the air and at sea, where the USA has an undeniable advantage.

BTW, the chinese have over 2,000 Nuclear Warheads. I said that only 24 are on ballistic launchers.
NOBODY in their right minds wants to use nukes. I assume that the Chinese leadership is as smart or smarter than George Dubya. Even Bush isn't stupid enough to use a weapon whose name he cannot correctly pronounce (its N-U-C-L-E-A-R, not N-U-C-U-L-A-R)

hey, this reminds me of the book Starship Troopers by Robert Heinlein, for those who dont know, the book is based a few generations after a great global conflict between the Chinese Hegemony and the British-America-Russian alliance, and the war begins (i think-its not clear) because the Chinese occupy Japan, needless to say it all ends in tears.
Weve been selling China a lot of Steel recently, and i asked my dad why, and being the morbid depresent that he is he said "Probably to shoot back at us", and Lenin once said "The Capitalists will sell us the rope for us to hang them with". As for the liklihood of War, i can see in a few years when China is a lot stronger and the western world suddenly realises that they have a hand on our throat (as in all our manufactured goods are being made out their these days) and a cold war developing between us. Or perhaps it will be like Korea, and the Chinese will attack us again. As for why? well they dont like us foreign devils and they want to be top dog over the Western Democracies, so we might see a Western Alliance develop. Anyway, dont downplay the Chinese, war against total communism is not a good idea, they expend their men like we expend ammunition, their attitude is "There are plenty more, why should i care, they are expendable assets, human resourses" Whilst our democracies tend to be fairly more humanitarian view.

Besides, the strength of the US naval assets are overrated. 1 carrier battle group should cost significantly more than 1000 anti-ship cruise missiles. It would be foolhardy to assume that the Chinese don't have a weapons technology that is nearly what, 20-30 years old (exocet missile)? I also understand that Iran is developing their own supersonic cruise missiles with ship profile recognition technology so they go for carriers first. If China does a deal with them, say bye bye to the carriers.

Yes, there are various anti-missile weapons installed on ships, but they can only do so much before they are overwhelmed. Underestimating an opponent is never wise. So is overestimating ones own capabilities.

And possibly in the event of an invasion, doesn't it seem feasible that the Chinese might sacrifice a strategic area only to turn it into glass once the military has consolidated the area? Its like your roadside bomb....only bigger.......and more destructive.

The question that arises then would be this. If the weapon was deployed on Chinese soil against an invading force, can the invading force retaliate with nuclear weapons against urban targets? Since the first strike wasn't against a city by the invading nation, but against their military, would the admin be able to use their own thermonuclear weapons against population centers?

A bit of a legal tussle no? Since they are being invaded in this scenario, the other nuclear powers might end up siding either way for the next use of thermonuclear arms.

Yes, there are various anti-missile weapons installed on ships, but they can only do so much before they are overwhelmed. Underestimating an opponent is never wise. So is overestimating ones own capabilities.
There are a variety of anti-missle beam weapons in development. Then there is metalstorm technology (courtesty of Austrailia).

But most of all. Stealth superfighters and UCAVs Hard to lauch cruise missles when loading one on a truck is a death sentence.

No need to worry, the end is near. Praise GOD!

hmm, i always assumed no-one would use Nukes, simply as in World War 1 Gas attacks were only used a few times and were very nasty so both sides were wary about using them. and in World War 2neither side dared to use chemical weapons against each others Civilian populaces for fear of retaliation. Even in the end the Nazis didnt use their new Nerve gas against London for fear of harsh reprisals (and that it would just encourage "the enemy" to fight harder and emonise us as cruel barbarians), so perhaps both sides would refuse to use Nukes as it would be suicide to do so. Although the Americans used Nukes against Japan, we
i. knew they didnt have any
ii. theyd never been used before so we didnt understand them (i.e. no-one knew about radiation poisoning or the horror of melted eyes and skin).
Though possibly it might happen because its easier to drop bombs on nations of different ethnicity than on people who have the same ethnicity as you.

Hi there...

i'd like to mention another aspect of this discussion...

when i read this thread i often read things like " .. protecting freedom" or " fighting for our free country..." or whatever....

well, i think all of us have to realize that there is no and there will be no war, that a country starts (without order from the UNO) just to keep freedom, that's BS class A

The wars are started with 100% interest in economical issues and increasing ones power status in a certain area of the world....not more
(Example: the very quick war on afagnistan had another reason too, the US tried to implement an oil pipeline throughout the whole area. unfortunately this project is now detered by the russian who got back main influence in this sector of the world. -> if you want to know more tell me....i'll post it)

thats what we all should be aware of...forget the media who show you that playstation-like war, where everyone just presses buttons...and afterwards we won

The soldiers out there are cheated, in interest you would spit on...

The Government is using such double moral standard it's disgusting, really...
there are so many states that are extreme undemocratic (saudi arabia and 100 more examples) and nobody cares, cause they have good economic connections etc.

on the other hand side, democratic elected governments are wiped out with help of the CIA (chile and other examples) and other Agencys in the world...and ? no one cares. .... does that mean protecting freedom ? it means protecting the interests of the USA (or another country), and that is an acceptable reason of course, every country does that, but don't tell us that BS of freedom and things like that....

We should forget believing in pressing our stamp of things to work like on the whole world and everybody is happy....that will not work...

sorry for the bad english...

What do y'all think? Are we headed for WWIII with China?
I've been talking to a Chinese guy in one of my classes, and it took quite a while before I had him convinced that the US would defend Taiwan if China went for it.
The danger is there. China isn't likely to attack the US directly, it's too powerful. But war could be sparked by a third party, such as Taiwan.
This is one of the main reasons I'm against the EU lifting its arms sales ban on China. It would boost the Government's confidence that they could get away with seizing Taiwan.

I always say, If you want to be the KING you got to beat the KING. I wouldnt be suprised if China didnt start a war with us. I dont think the US will directly go looking for a fight. But I think China will invade Taiwan and or Russian far east to precipitate a conflict with the US and NATO.

I always say, If you want to be the KING you got to beat the KING. I wouldnt be suprised if China didnt start a war with us. I dont think the US will directly go looking for a fight. But I think China will invade Taiwan and or Russian far east to precipitate a conflict with the US and NATO.

Only dumbasses try to initiate a conflict with the most powerful nation in the world - like Hitler's Germany. Realistically speaking, China is unlikely to spark a war with the United States.

If you look at the history of the People's Republic of China, its foreign policy has been largely based on the themes of "restoration" and "preservation". In the near future, even with the economic might, it is likely to stay that way.