NationStates Jolt Archive

Alright had to make a flashy headline. So to all our European Ns'rs and Germans in particular. With elections coming up. The conservative opposition candidates seem to be supporters of the war in Iraq vs Schroeder a anti-Iraq war kind of guy. It is reported in some American language websites that the conservatives may take down Schroeder. If this happens how long before you think Germany will enter into the Iraq war and or a possible showdown vs Iran? Like to hear what you guys across the pond think.

To be honest, this is the first time I've heard that Germany has an election coming up.

Yes, I am American. And yes I do constantly check the BBC's latest headlines on Firefox's header thingie. NOTHING!

check CNN there is a story about Bush and Schroeder from today.

Man, you certainly look pro-war.


Shroeder is losing by 17 points in the polls.
Let's see what happens.
But whatever candidate gets elected, it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that he/she will accept to go to war or to be part of any kind of attack or military operation. Why? Because the German PEOPLE are massively against war. So since Germany is a truly democratic country, you can count it "out of the showdown".

Man, you certainly look pro-war.


Shroeder is losing by 17 points in the polls.
Let's see what happens.
But whatever candidate gets elected, it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that he/she will accept to go to war or to be part of any kind of attack or military operation. Why? Because the German PEOPLE are massively against war. So since Germany is a truly democratic country, you can count it "out of the showdown".

Im pro kicking our enemies asses. But anyway I wouldnt overestimate the anti war movement in Germany. It would take one simple act to anger people the other way.

Im pro kicking our enemies asses. But anyway I wouldnt overestimate the anti war movement in Germany. It would take one simple act to anger people the other way.
You're thinking of any country but Germany. Germany doesn't do war anymore. The very idea is despised in the media, and in most people's heads. That's what a good 1945 brainwashing will do to you.

Now to the topic: The reason Schröder might lose is of course not war, it was actually the main reason he was reelected last time.
The reason will be economics, and there are big problems in the country. It's complicated, but it turns out that the traditional Social Democratic party (a party that can trace its' steps all the way to the first unions in the 1870-1890s) has the unlucky job of getting the economy to deal with globalisation. And that of course means cutting wages, health care, holidays etc and making it easier for business to operate.
And doing that if fundamentally opposed to everything the party stands for, and that has broken their backs just a little bit. Reforms came slowly (after the conservatives failed to do anything for many years under big man Kohl), and were often hampered by the opposition's efforts. When they did come, people started protesting in an unfair way, likening their protests with what they had done in the GDR before it fell apart.
I still hope Schröder wins. He's got a good idea about where he wants Germany to be internationally, pretty similar to mine, and with him there is a greater chance that the Social Market Economy will not be completely abandoned because of the pressures we face right now.

Schroeder is such a fucktard.

Schroeder is such a fucktard.
Elaborate please.

At the moment theres no Party in Germany witch will make a change positive for the people here. The SPD ( Schröder ) was elected only as on Fact, that we dont want to go to war. We lost already to go to Afganistan. I hope i dont speek just for my self, but if there comes just on imagination that ower gouvernment will go be part on it. We will be on the street again against it.
As well the CDU hast lost points as well, where it was found out that the Merkel will hight up taxtes. Since the Gouvernement makes no reliesing help on the dayly livingcost. Germany most turn hight idiotic to select somebody how planes even i highter burden, instat taking the zepter ones pointing to what is realy drifting away & wrong

Well Marakech II
dont know where you life in. so i cant say if i want this land turning even parallel to yours. I know many look to the VS as on great example, but i dont. Contrary i'm worriet about seeing ths land going this direction, where only outside look counts. But people can easyly die by hunger close a side of the ritch, ( well maybe they just kick them away before thats more easy to look pass on it). This country can be taken out of economicly problems, no matter there goes a globalisation process on or outher thinks.
Only corruption keeps us down, a country witch was rebuild from the ground and was helping even outhers as well, during this time.
Germany is the Phoenix from the Phoenix Saga.
Ower lifelevel we dont have because of Schröder, its despite we have the SPD or/ and CDU

Unlikely. They will however support the US much more in other things and they will no longer be hostile to the Bush admin, which is more than enough change.

Unlikely. They will however support the US much more in other things and they will no longer be hostile to the Bush admin, which is more than enough change.
Meh, not sure about that. Germans in general are very suspicious of Bush (as is much of the world actually), and they won't like their government doing the 180° like that.
The only reason they could do that is by getting the economy back on tracks pretty much immediatly, and that is impossible, especially with the few campaign ideas we heard so far.

The problem for the SPD is the econemy, due to both Globalisation and the reunification.

Ironically this sounds very like the situation in the late 70's in Britain, where (Old) Labour was in power, with the econemy stagnating (leading to high unemployment, like in Germany at the moment) and Britain taking loans from the World Bank.

Also Ironically is that the both the CDU and the Conservatives are/were lead by women (Merkel CDU, Thatcher Con) and both have been referred to as the "Iron Lady".

Warning: If the comparison continues Germany will go through 16 years of the CDU, with a neo-liberal approach to the econemy but shifting more to the central ground after nine years, destruction of the trade unions (especially if they are a dominant force), Public Services will take a big hit due to cuts in funding, lots of stealth taxes will be introduced as well as a hugely unpopular tax which screws the poor (Poll Tax), Germany will go to War over something to enhance the "Iron Lady" Image.

Until eventually after 16 years the SDP reinvents its self as the NSDP (Neus Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) under a highly charismatic leader and almost exactly the same policies as the first 9 years of CDU except for economic policy (which is inherited from the past 7 years) and a hugh investment into public services after years of neglect.

Alright had to make a flashy headline. So to all our European Ns'rs and Germans in particular. With elections coming up. The conservative opposition candidates seem to be supporters of the war in Iraq vs Schroeder a anti-Iraq war kind of guy. It is reported in some American language websites that the conservatives may take down Schroeder. If this happens how long before you think Germany will enter into the Iraq war and or a possible showdown vs Iran? Like to hear what you guys across the pond think.
I don't think Merkel would risk her life by entering us into the Iraq quagmire. The Americans aren't very popular here - rightly so - and such commitments would lack popular support and would probably result in lawsuits and whatnot. Our constitution is very strict on such issues and forbids it very clearly. :D

To be honest, this is the first time I've heard that Germany has an election coming up.

Yes, I am American. And yes I do constantly check the BBC's latest headlines on Firefox's header thingie. NOTHING!
We'll most likely have early elections this September after the current Chancellor is most likely going to lose the trust votum in parliament this Friday.

Man, you certainly look pro-war.


Shroeder is losing by 17 points in the polls.
Let's see what happens.
But whatever candidate gets elected, it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that he/she will accept to go to war or to be part of any kind of attack or military operation. Why? Because the German PEOPLE are massively against war. So since Germany is a truly democratic country, you can count it "out of the showdown".

The same massively democratic country which did not give its people a referndum on joining the Euro or the signing of the European Constitution, despite indications that a large proportion of people would have voted no on both?

The same massively democratic country which did not give its people a referndum on joining the Euro or the signing of the European Constitution, despite indications that a large proportion of people would have voted no on both?
Referendums are not in our constitution, as such, they cannot be used for such federal level policy making decisions. Most Germans would have preferred referendums on the Euro and the EU constitution and we'd even like to replace our current constitution (which was initially written under scrutiny by the allies after WW2) and make our own constitution. Our politicians just don't want to give the people this sort of power, which is sad. In that aspect, our democracy is lacking. I'd prefer a system like the Swiss, with lots of referendums on everything :D

Answer to the question: when the horrid CDU comes to power again there will almost certainly be tacit support to even more horrid Bush and his Iraq war, but actual military investment is highly unlikely: no German will want to take the responsability for landing the "Jungens" in that swamp of death, and if German troops were sent anyway, the government would be down at the first dead German...

As for the rest of the election issue, it's the old problem with Social Democrat or Socialist parties coming to power alone: somehow, they all seem to think that it's good to pursue ultra-liberal policies. Their Austrian, French, Finnish, Greek, Italian, etc. etc. etc. comrades all had their asses kicked in elections for this: if people can choose between a fake product and the genuine one (real liberals) it's only natural that they buy the real thing... The only solution to this problem is either for the people to start using their brains (the reason why Schröder is going to lose is mainly "that guy's a right-wing bastard, I don't want him anymore, I'm going to vote for an even more right-wing bastard instead"), or for Socialists to live up to their name (Spain's Zapatero is giving the good example there) and stop acting like Liberals. For that last thing it's too late for Schröder now, but his successor as SPD leader may as well take that for a lesson.

And, for those Americans out there, the term "liberal" out of the mouth of a European socialist IS an insult...

T.

Ein Deutscher']Referendums are not in our constitution, as such, they cannot be used for such federal level policy making decisions. Most Germans would have preferred referendums on the Euro and the EU constitution and we'd even like to replace our current constitution (which was initially written under scrutiny by the allies after WW2) and make our own constitution. Our politicians just don't want to give the people this sort of power, which is sad. In that aspect, our democracy is lacking. I'd prefer a system like the Swiss, with lots of referendums on everything :D

Nowadays, most Germans do like the euro (it's extremely practical) and just take a look at the reasons why most people would have voted against the EU constitution: they want to kick Schröder's ass. Nothing to do with the constitution at all. This by itself is enough reason NOT to hold ANY referendums at all.

Nowadays, most Germans do like the euro (it's extremely practical) and just take a look at the reasons why most people would have voted against the EU constitution: they want to kick Schröder's ass. Nothing to do with the constitution at all. This by itself is enough reason NOT to hold ANY referendums at all.

Though the strength of the Euro compared to the Dollar has not helped the German Econemy. But I agree whith the Ass kicking bit, as that is why the French rejected it as they wanted to kick Chirac (Another Right Winger) Ass.

Nowadays, most Germans do like the euro (it's extremely practical) and just take a look at the reasons why most people would have voted against the EU constitution: they want to kick Schröder's ass. Nothing to do with the constitution at all. This by itself is enough reason NOT to hold ANY referendums at all.
1.) I'm not so sure about most Germans liking the Euro. We had it quite good with our Deutsche Mark. Nowadays the Euro is infamous for being the Teuro, due to making most things more expensive - especially living costs.

2.) The constitution was "waved through" by our incompetent politicians. Most of them didn't even know what they were voting on. Many people here did try to read and understand the constitution, but for most, it was too much - for me also. This is not what we want our constitutions to look like. We want the social-cultural achievements to be considered in such a constitution and it should be short and to the point - not a huge lawyer-like pamphlet that nobody understands. The constitution would have primarily failed also, because Germany is such a large net-payer into the EU and gets little out of it, other than more foreign competition by workers moving to us and working for laughable salaries, which no German can compete with. Many of us don't want a EU superstate.

The problem for the SPD is the econemy, due to both Globalisation and the reunification.

Ironically this sounds very like the situation in the late 70's in Britain, where (Old) Labour was in power, with the econemy stagnating (leading to high unemployment, like in Germany at the moment) and Britain taking loans from the World Bank.

Also Ironically is that the both the CDU and the Conservatives are/were lead by women (Merkel CDU, Thatcher Con) and both have been referred to as the "Iron Lady".

Warning: If the comparison continues Germany will go through 16 years of the CDU, with a neo-liberal approach to the econemy but shifting more to the central ground after nine years, destruction of the trade unions (especially if they are a dominant force), Public Services will take a big hit due to cuts in funding, lots of stealth taxes will be introduced as well as a hugely unpopular tax which screws the poor (Poll Tax), Germany will go to War over something to enhance the "Iron Lady" Image.

Until eventually after 16 years the SDP reinvents its self as the NSDP (Neus Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) under a highly charismatic leader and almost exactly the same policies as the first 9 years of CDU except for economic policy (which is inherited from the past 7 years) and a hugh investment into public services after years of neglect.

This is what ive been saying!!!

This is what ive been saying!!!

Glad that someone else agrees. Only not the only one of thinks this way. Yay!

Alright had to make a flashy headline. So to all our European Ns'rs and Germans in particular. With elections coming up. The conservative opposition candidates seem to be supporters of the war in Iraq vs Schroeder a anti-Iraq war kind of guy. It is reported in some American language websites that the conservatives may take down Schroeder. If this happens how long before you think Germany will enter into the Iraq war and or a possible showdown vs Iran? Like to hear what you guys across the pond think.

1. Germany - with no regard of which government might or might not be in charge after Septembre 2005 - could take part in a war against Iran IF there is conclusive evidence of Iran doing something fishy.

Mind you. People keep telling you Germans are reluctant to go to war (well, last time we did we killed 52 million people. That's a whole lot of blood on our hands and the dead demand we are "a bit more careful to go to war". If we go to war we need a damn good reason), but it doesn't not mean they won't defend themselves.

The main reason why Germans opposed the war against Iraq (and I may add ALL of the political parties did) was because we weren't convinced of Iraq being a threat AND we had doubts about the "exit" and "post war" strategies we have been offered.

Now Iran on the other hand does look very much like they could go crazy about that whole nuclear weapons thing. And if Iran wants to mess with Europe Germany can't and won't stand down.

Frankly said, I'd be in favor of a strike against Iran should there be evidence (and I mean EVIDENCE and not "Downing Street No. 10"-kind of evidence) of Iran posing a threat to us AND being willing to threaten us.

2. Even with a new government there WON'T be more support for Iraq. We do a lot already. Sure, we don't send troops (this is not our fight afterall), but we granted Iraq a hughe cut on it's financial debts and we train Iraqi police and ING forces in Saudi Arabia and in Germany (at least they don't get blown up here).

Plus we ponyed up our presence in the Balkans and in Afgahnistan a lot so the Pentagon doesn't need to worry about withdrawing US troops from there too much.

Both are facts by now (at least from what I read) rather unknown to the US public (I wonder why?), but at least yesterday President Bush acknowledged and appreciated our efforts.

I'll also need to point this out: While a German conservative is more likely to be more friendly towards the US than towards our European allies (like France, the UK or Spain), they won't support Mr. Bush or America if he continues what he does. Germans are VERY picky about human rights and stuff, and you'll have to admit the Bush government's record on that part doesn't look to well.

Plus, people started to like the "strong and resolute" foreign policy and the new "German assertiveness" Chancellor Schroeder's government started. We can assume the next government will continue that path and too push for a permanent seat in the UN security council.

Actually, the special envoy of the Schroeder government who manages the G4-talks and who is considered to be one of the "think tank members of the whole new German UN porject" is Volker Rühe, former minister of defence AND - suprise! - member of the Christian Democratic Union. And most of his fellow partymen support him.

3. And don't be illusional about Schroeder loosing the election. He'll probably loose because he did what was the right thing to do: Start a major overhaul and reform of the rusty old welfare system - which pissed off a lot of people who now in return won't vote for him again.

Bad thing is, those people will vote for the German neo-cons. Silly voters. They'll vote in the people who'll do what Schroeder did, though they'll do it on steroids and dismantle all the social achievements Germans fought for so long.

Oh well. The best argument against democracy is the stupidity of the voter, right?

Glad that someone else agrees. Only not the only one of thinks this way. Yay!

It will be funny to watch.

I do think that a conservative government in Germany will support the war in Iraq by sending troops in. Even though we don't have the manpower or the money to do it. Even though nobody thinks there can be achieved any practical goal in this. Merkel will support Bush because it's holy America and she'd admire anything American.
I don't think, there will be much of a protest from the German people. The media will blindly support Merkel and tell us what we're supposed to believe, no matter what the facts. And most people simply believe it. "Hey, it was on tv, after all."
We had news about dead soldiers in Afghanistan, this weekend, but nobody cares. Struck, the German secretary of defense has taken the opportunity of promoting his electoral campaign with some dead "heros" pretty much helping him in this. The anti-war conviction I was taught long time ago, is forgotten. The lessons we learned from WW 2 are forgotten.
There will be no military strategy, there will be no calculation of the monetary cost, there will be no timeline, there will be no political plan other than how to cheat on the German people, but our troops will be in. IMO!
:(

I doubt that Germany will "go to war" in Iraq if the conservatives win. Currently, jobs and the economy are bigger issues and the conservatives are close to an absolute majority on their own. I doubt they'll risk that by proclaiming that German soldiers will go to Iraq.
Two current events that are relevant to anti-war sentiment:
Two German soldiers just got killed in Afghanistan in an accident involving loading arms and weapons on trucks.
The German Constitutional Court just ruled a demotion of a German officer that refused to work on a logistical program on the grounds that it could have been used in Iraq as wrong.

I do think that a conservative government in Germany will support the war in Iraq by sending troops in. Even though we don't have the manpower or the money to do it. Even though nobody thinks there can be achieved any practical goal in this. Merkel will support Bush because it's holy America and she'd admire anything American.
I don't think, there will be much of a protest from the German people. The media will blindly support Merkel and tell us what we're supposed to believe, no matter what the facts. And most people simply believe it. "Hey, it was on tv, after all."
We had news about dead soldiers in Afghanistan, this weekend, but nobody cares. Struck, the German secretary of defense has taken the opportunity of promoting his electoral campaign with some dead "heros" pretty much helping him in this. The anti-war conviction I was taught long time ago, is forgotten. The lessons we learned from WW 2 are forgotten.
There will be no military strategy, there will be no calculation of the monetary cost, there will be no timeline, there will be no political plan other than how to cheat on the German people, but our troops will be in. IMO!
:(
Oh come on! Remember the carnival with the wagon were Merkel was crawling out of Uncle Sam's ass? That hasn't abated...

it seems to me as if there were germans, americans, french a.s.o. but in all countries in the world there are just humans with many different opinions. mostly i dont agree with my neighbours but they are (on there id's) as much german as me. people are or arent this or that way? rubbish...
after this vote in autum the conservatives will reign over germany and its people. but i hope, that the left-wing-germans will react and act again. with this (officially) middle-left gouvernment the liberals died. with a new right-wing gouvernmant they will probably be reborn...
in iraq there wont be war with germans. waiting for iran and saudi arabia

I think even Schroeder has accepted he will lose the election....the results of the provincial elections in North Rhine Westphalia tend to demonstrate that...the SDP got hammered. I very much think Angela Merkel will be elected....and hopefully will librealise germany's inflexible labour laws and make the nation more competitive. I expect the political elite of Britain are especially looking forward to working with a government that will agree with us a lot more and change the power balance in Europe away from those supporting the present european soocial model that has been proven not to work that well.

I doubt very much whether Germany will go to war...i thought (but correct me if I'm wrong) that Germany will only fight in self defence of its country. Even if that's not true, war really doesn't go down well with the populace. Even though it looks like a dead cert that the CDU will win, and even if they did support US Iraq policy....they'll remember who elected them, i.e. the anti-war german public.

Incidentally...if the US started picking on Iran, I think Britain's standpoint would change a lot and you might be left in a completely unilateral position.

Snip.

Thank you for elaborating and posting what you did: It is exactly what I feel like and would have posted. You saved me a lot of time (and brainpower - it's hot, hot, hot over here :) )

I will surely not vote for the frigging Christian Democrats or the darn Liberals, that's a fact! Neither will the newly established left socialist alternative get my vote...

As for starting or joining illegitimate wars - our Grundgesetz ("Basic Law") is very strict on that (prohibiting anything like WW2) and "unjust" wars definitely do not get any support whatsoever. The German Bundeswehr ("Federal Armed Forces") already are deployed around the world in many conflict zones (Balkans, Afghanistan, etc.) and I don't see how they could send more troops anywhere. Besides, with the monetary situation as it is right now, we couldn't even affort a war!

Now, when it comes to referendums - there isn't actually any need for them. We already have our democratically elected government who do things on our behalf, I don't see any reason why we would want to introduce anything like that. That would screw our democratic system over and it actually does work pretty well!

If - hypothetically - Germany would be drawn into a war by a conservative government, I'm convinced the streets would look a lot like the Anti-Vietnam-War protests in the 60s/70s in the States. Hell, I'd be raising my voice (and more *fistshake*) for sure!

The conservative opposition candidates seem to be supporters of the war in Iraq vs Schroeder a anti-Iraq war kind of guy. [...] If this happens how long before you think Germany will enter into the Iraq war and or a possible showdown vs Iran? Like to hear what you guys across the pond think.
Well first of all, the Chancellor Schröder needs to suspend his own government and dissolve parlament. As this is not in fact permitted by our constitution he needs to apply a legally quite fishy trick. Several groups have already stated that they would call on the constitutional court (the highest court in Germany) to declare this illegal. If they were to win the case, Schröder (or a successor from the same party) would need to keep on governing untill summer 2006.

Merkel, the head of the opposition, did publically state that her original support of Bush and the war in Iraq (which, among other things lost her the last election) was a mistake in view of the evaporated reasons for the war (weapons of mass stupidity!).

Also, the chancellor cannot decide to send German troops abroad, neither can his/her government. Only parliament can do this and you need a 2/3 majority for this. Even if there were an election tomorrow, the current opposition would not amount to 2/3s of the seats. Since all other parties (including the probable coalition partner FDP) are against sending troops to Iraq, this is basically a non issue.

Finally, although most Germans don't like this, Germany does in fact indirectly support the US army in Iraq. Germany was asked to increase her troops in the Balcans and Afganistan so that the US could reduce her troops there and pull them to Iraq instead. Germany complied.

I think even Schroeder has accepted he will lose the election....the results of the provincial elections in North Rhine Westphalia tend to demonstrate that...the SDP got hammered. I very much think Angela Merkel will be elected....and hopefully will librealise germany's inflexible labour laws and make the nation more competitive. I expect the political elite of Britain are especially looking forward to working with a government that will agree with us a lot more and change the power balance in Europe away from those supporting the present european soocial model that has been proven not to work that well.

I doubt very much whether Germany will go to war...i thought (but correct me if I'm wrong) that Germany will only fight in self defence of its country. Even if that's not true, war really doesn't go down well with the populace. Even though it looks like a dead cert that the CDU will win, and even if they did support US Iraq policy....they'll remember who elected them, i.e. the anti-war german public.

Incidentally...if the US started picking on Iran, I think Britain's standpoint would change a lot and you might be left in a completely unilateral position.

I see it that though the election of Merkel would shift balance of power in Europe, it will not generally benifit the German Econemy, especially in the short term.

As look at Thatcherite Britain, unemployment hit record highs in the Early years as she liberalised the British Econemy and many people felt hard done by some of her actions, especially in the Working Class (listen to the Jam, it gives you a fair idea of the problems). And though many may point to Britain's current prosperity to Thatcher, it's thanks To Major's Policies of the 1990's and there continuation by Brown as they have kept the econemy Stable and therefore the reduction in unemployment.