NationStates Jolt Archive

Korea is the only country in the world at this moment that is still seperated. And with the unofficial ending of the Korean War, North Korea and South Korea have been in an armed standoff ever since. I've been wondering, if a second Korean War started, who would win?

Korea is the only country in the world at this moment that is still seperated. And with the unofficial ending of the Korean War, North Korea and South Korea have been in an armed standoff ever since. I've been wondering, if a second Korean War started, who would win?

SOUTH KOREA MUST WIN! I CAN'T ALLOW MAD AND BAD DICTATORS HAVING CONTROLS OF NUKES THAT CAN BLAST ME TO KINGDOM COME!

I would like SK to win, but to my knowledge the North's military is extremely powerful. I doubt the South would be able to win. Hopefully America and Japan would intervene.

Hmm, i'm not sure about this one, but i think its safe to say that both countries would be completely wrecked if a war did take place, and i think it would cause all of asia to flare up, as it would make the China-Taiwan situation even worse. it would push several nations to the brink of war i think, cos i think China and Vietnam would support North Korea, and the US etc would support South Korea.

Everyone loses. Especially Koreans who would essentially be transformed in the catastrophe and become something apprecialy different from what they are.

Korea is the only country in the world at this moment that is still seperated. And with the unofficial ending of the Korean War, North Korea and South Korea have been in an armed standoff ever since. I've been wondering, if a second Korean War started, who would win?
Korea is not the only country that is separated. The USA is too. The northern part is controlled by an illegitemate socialist government and the south is controlled by crazy Mexicans. The USA must unite with it's breakaway northern and southern provinces. Oh, and China's split too.

The South Korean military is quite good. Well equiped, they train hard. The North Korean army is big but they face several problems. First, Soviet style command structure and warfare methods. When put up against western methods of warfare Soviet styles have usually failed. The North Koreans do not have the logistics to back up a real war of aggresssion against the south. They are starving up there already and have no economy of which to speak.
The US and Japan would be sending aid to the South, China might send aid to the North although if the North attacked I doubt China would because the rest of the world would give them hell for it and it would damage their economy. Right now the only thing that is driving Chinese decision making is their economy.
The North would start strong through sheer wieght of numbers, then the ROKs would stabilize and start butchering their northern brothers.
As annoyed as I am by the whiney college kids in S. Korea I know the US would roll in to help the them. After we had helped them keep their country out of Kim Jong Il's hands they could go back to hating us for it and blaming us for all their troubles again.

North Korea would win a straight fight, but the US would undoubtedly become involved.

I'm not at all sure that China would support North Korea, except possibly to get at the Americans. They know as well as anyone else that Kim Jong Il is unstable and dangerous, so I wouldn't imagine for a moment that China would stick with North Korea because each are purportedly 'communist' regimes. China would just do whatever was in its own interests, which might mean getting at the Americans, or it might mean keeping its lucrative exports flourishing and therefore staying out of the whole thing. Probably the latter I imagine. They are more likely to use the opportunity to take Taiwan.

Korea is the only country in the world at this moment that is still seperated.

What about Rep. Ireland and N. Ireland?

I would have to go with South Korea with this. North Korea might have some victories in the early days, but after a while, it would turn against North Korea. Also, let us not forget that the JSDF is being more aggresive these days...

I just don't see why so many people think the N. Koreans have a great military. Sure they march pretty in a square and they roll out the missle trucks and tanks that are working but. . .they have no logistic base. Logistics win wars. Where are they going to get the fuel to keep that military rolling, the food and the new recruits. They have maxed out right now and when the casualties start rolling in from the massive airstrikes the US would put upon them they are not in a position to recover. When the gas and the food begin to run out who they gonna turn to, the Chinese.
The Chinese will not back the N. Koreans unless the US crosses into N. Korea. They have no vested interest in doing so. It would earn them too much bad press.

In so far as there would be victory in a second korean war, south korea will be able to guarantee air dominance. That will in turn guarantee victory so long as they can maintain the security of the airfields. No one will help North Korea, the outbreak of war would cripple China's economy. If they backed North Korea openly, ~1.5 billion people would find their lives grind to a halt as the rest of the world decides to starve them to death and deprive them of oil.

What the South Koreans lack in actual man power they more than make up for in other force multipliers.

Neither once nukes come into play. Let's all just hope there's no war.

Maharlikana

S Korea and its allies which are numerous and powerful would prevail. But problem is that the whole of N and S Korea would be a ash heap at the end of hostilities with possibly half the population of both nations killed or wounded. It will be very ugly if it does happen. I personally hope someone kills KimJongIl before he does something stupid.

Korea is the only country in the world at this moment that is still seperated.
Cyprus?

Korea is not the only country that is separated. The USA is too. The northern part is controlled by an illegitemate socialist government and the south is controlled by crazy Mexicans. The USA must unite with it's breakaway northern and southern provinces. Oh, and China's split too.
:)

Hmmmmmm Socialist eh?

the North Korean military is very large. But it is also equipped with weapons systems that were effective in the 1960s and 1970s, with only a few relatively modern 1980s era systems and even fewer state of the art systems.

The ROKs have a military nearly as large (especially when reserves are considered), with more modern equipment, the advantage of being on the defensive in country known for its rugged hills and large heavily built cities.

I wouldn't be on the NKPLAs chances at this point in 'liberating' South Korea without large scale Chinese assistance. Which isn't highly likely (although somewhat possible).

I am pretty sure (but not positive) that Cyprus has a power sharing agreement between the Greeks and Turks.. I could be mistaken though.

South wins. The North has a larger military, but they are poorly trained and have very outdated equipment while the South has one of the best trained and best equipped militaries in the world. Even without US help the South would win.

It should also be noted that the South would win because they would be able to resupply thanks to trading relations and the fact they have money. The North's troops would starve and run out of fuel as they don't have the trading relationships or money the South has. Neither side can really blockade the other, but the South's Navy is better and also the US Navy could help blockade the North.

the North Korean military is very large. But it is also equipped with weapons systems that were effective in the 1960s and 1970s, with only a few relatively modern 1980s era systems and even fewer state of the art systems.

The ROKs have a military nearly as large (especially when reserves are considered), with more modern equipment, the advantage of being on the defensive in country known for its rugged hills and large heavily built cities.

I bet very much on the NKPLAs chances at this point in 'liberating' South Korea without large scale Chinese assistance. Which isn't highly likely (although somewhat possible).

I am pretty sure (but not positive) that Cyprus has a power sharing agreement between the Greeks and Turks.. I could be mistaken though.

You are. North and South Cyprus are two different countries.

If North Korea invaded South Korea their soldiers would probably look around and marvel at all South Korea's technological advancements and quit fighting. If south Korea invaded North Korea they would be shot to pieces to inches into the DMZ. North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces and land mine fields dense as the grains of sand on the beach to mean instant death for any south Korean infantryman. In an unaided battle, there would be a stalemate.

Lets not forget Sudan, Russia (if you consider Chechyna part of Russia) and every other third-world craphole whose people have just discovered a new thing to kill each other over. However, here's my scenarios.

Without nukes:
North Korea invades South Korea and blows Seoul to hell with artillery. They take many casualties crossing the DMZ, and then even more once American or Japanese air power comes into play. Of course the South Koreans will already be blowing up what little infrastructure NK has with their own airforce. At this point Team America step in and blow up Kim Jong Il. They then have sex.

With nukes:
In preparation for their glorious campaign of reunification, the North Koreans test a nuclear device. The water table for the entire peninsula is poisoned with radiation, killing everyone before sancations cause them all to starve.

Lets not forget Sudan, Russia (if you consider Chechyna part of Russia) and every other third-world craphole whose people have just discovered a new thing to kill each other over. However, here's my scenarios.

Without nukes:
North Korea invades South Korea and blows Seoul to hell with artillery. They take many casualties crossing the DMZ, and then even more once American or Japanese air power comes into play. Of course the South Koreans will already be blowing up what little infrastructure NK has with their own airforce. At this point Team America step in and blow up Kim Jong Il. They then have sex.

With nukes:
In preparation for their glorious campaign of reunification, the North Koreans test a nuclear device. The water table for the entire peninsula is poisoned with radiation, killing everyone before sancations cause them all to starve.
Nuclear blast would posion the water table? Does this really happen? I can't imagine North korea would suffer too much, their whole half of the peninsula is mountainous and I would think they have delicious mountain spring water.

They're going to do an underground test. I don't know what an air or surface explosion would do, but a ground test would screw up the water table.

I just don't see why so many people think the N. Koreans have a great military.
I'm no expert, but it's something to do with the fact that NK is the only nuclear power with a leader who might just be nutty enough to use them.

What about Rep. Ireland and N. Ireland?
yeah, and Cyprus.

You are. North and South Cyprus are two different countries.

If North Korea invaded South Korea their soldiers would probably look around and marvel at all South Korea's technological advancements and quit fighting. If south Korea invaded North Korea they would be shot to pieces to inches into the DMZ. North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces and land mine fields dense as the grains of sand on the beach to mean instant death for any south Korean infantryman. In an unaided battle, there would be a stalemate.

so I see
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/cy.html

although technically the Greek half is the one recognized internationally.... well, gives the Greeks and Turks as excuse to go at it again some day

as far as the DMZ goes... I can't picture a situation where the ROKs invade first, although I suppose its barely possible. Most likely the NKPLA would invade, get defeated, and then the ROKs charge across the DMZ.

The First Gulf War pretty much proves though that fixed defenses can be overcome with enough engineer support and effecient tactics, while daisy cutter bombs take care of the densest minefields readily enough.

Politically though, the South Koreans have no reason to invade. They know if they wait long enough, the forces of history make reunification on their terms likely. Of course they will spend a couple of generations fixing North Korea like the West Germans have to do with East Germany.

Awe, I thought this was going to be a RP!

The North would completely decimate the South's capital seeing as its only a few miles away from the DMZ...easy reach for Northern artillery. After the U.S. came to help, the North would begin to lose, but if they do have nukes, thats when they'd use em IMO.

Awe, I thought this was going to be a RP!

Oh the two sides would just nuke and then ignore each other. Wouldn't be too interesting me thinks.

I'm no expert, but it's something to do with the fact that NK is the only nuclear power with a leader who might just be nutty enough to use them.


yeah, and Cyprus.

Sure they have nukes but that don't make yer military great. ("yer" added for redneckish effect)

The North might make some land gains and blow Seoul to Hell and gone, but the RoK and USA(The United States have roughly 16,000 troops in South Korea, a carrier group in Okinawa(sp), and B-52s on Guam, just for this occasion) will stop them cold and slaughter them. US, RoK, and Japanese air power then completely destroy North Korea. A paradrop opens up a second front(Same thing happened in 2003), North Korea's armed forces are starved and immobile. There is no air force to speak of. With total air superiority, Allied air power destroys what little Northern units haven't ran back home.

The North might make some land gains and blow Seoul to Hell and gone, but the RoK and USA(The United States have roughly 16,000 troops in South Korea, a carrier group in Okinawa(sp), and B-52s on Guam, just for this occasion) will stop them cold and slaughter them. US, RoK, and Japanese air power then completely destroy North Korea. A paradrop opens up a second front(Same thing happened in 2003), North Korea's armed forces are starved and immobile. There is no air force to speak of. With total air superiority, Allied air power destroys what little Northern units haven't ran back home.
The military gets fed first so the North Korean troops aren't starving like many of the peasents. BBC did an awesome documentary about NK, their military parades were mindblowingly impressive. I don't buy everyones vauge claims about them being poorly trained.

People also take North Korea's poverty to be a massive disadvantage. While the lack of techology doesn't help them, it is always my belief that the more dirt poor you are the better soldier you are. Thus Vietmanese peasents were willing to face down and defeat the US, North Korea and China were able to drive the US out of North Korea, the insurgents in Iraq are so resiliant etc. Even in the US it seems as if most of the basic infantry come from poor rural towns or villages. I think the richer you are the more afraid of death and the more cowardly and soft you become. No offense intended to any rich people of course.

Neither side would "win"; they would both come out of it devastated. But I don't see a war happening. It's in no-one's interest, and the two Koreas are getting along increasingly well.

The Republic of Korea's forces, with a call up of reservists, are a lot larger than the North's.

The RoK has an active duty army of 700000, but with call up, 5 million are added.

The RoK has an economy 30 times the size of the North, and spends 3 times more on the military.

The North might be able to start a war, but they can't sustain one. They have no industry, and no money, the RoK has $94 billion in foreign currency reserves, and massive industry.

The North's equipment is obsolete, poorly maintained, and lacks oil. The only oil they get is what China grudgingly gives them. The RoK's equipment is much newer, better maintained, and they've no lack of fuel.

Read this article:

The Mythical North Korean Threat (http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm)

If North Korea is attacked by an outside aggressor there's a chance that the South Korean people will side with them. I teach ESL to Koreans (in Korea I might add) and a good number say that they want this nuke thing resolved peacefully and without too much outside interference.

Can't blame 'em, they have everything to lose and nothing to gain.

Cathenia

I think Korea is really just one playground for a wider field of Sino-American conflicts. Other playgrounds include Japan, Taiwan, South China Sea, India and free trade. Although I sincerely hope that North Korea will soon be reunited with South Korea under a democratic and capitalist system, I believe that it wouldn't be possible in the near future unless there is a fundamental change for the better in Sino-American relations.

I teach ESL to Koreans (south!) and I've been reading up on the history of the conflict. Korea, like all nations, is a proud nation with that unique Asian phobia of losing face or suffering embarrasment and degredation. For centuries they were independent, beating off an invasion by the Japanese with the first Ironclad, cannon firing warships (sorry, it wasn't La Gloire, Warrior, Monitor or Virginia), the Turtle Boats. Then they fell into the Manchu sphere of influence which was contested by the Japanese. Even post-Civil War America tried to get into the act but their ship, the General Sherman was stormed by an irate mob and the crew massacred (that led to 'the first Korean War' in 1871 which didn't really end in much more than a stalemate as America wasn't really ready for entry on the world stage yet and did not want to commit large scale forces). In 1894 Japan and China fight for control of the Korean peninsula (Sino-Japanese War) and China gets badly beaten thanks to a viciously corrupt Manchu regime. Japan then gets nasty - its agents rape, murder, desecrate and burn the Queen of Korea and then about twelve years later they take over the entire peninsula. Independence movements like the March 1 uprising are brutally crushed. Korean women become 'comfort women' for the army and their men are forced to serve as second line (and second class) soldiers, degraded by their Japanese superiors from the rank of private up (an amazing story is how during the Normandy invasion June 6, a bunch of these soldiers were captured by the US Army. Turns out they were forced by the Japanese into their army then captured by Zhukov's forces at Nomonhan, forced into the Russian army and captured by the Germans, then forced into the German army!!) If Korean soldiers were the most hated POW guards in the Philippines and the Kwai Valley it's because they were themselves so mistreated by the Japanese (pecking order - or rather punching order). Well, then at the close of the war, USA and USSR are scrambling for control of Europe and Asia so you get north and south Korea.

You ever heard this song, I think by Phil Collins with the line, "Would you respect me if I didn't have this gun? I get no respect without it and that's why I carry one." That's pretty much North Korea in a nutshell I think. Nukes being the 'gun'. They (their people at least) see it as a deterrent to American 'aggression' and the threat of falling into their sphere of influence.

As for South Korea, America's record there has been less than pristine. There are stories of women raped, men bullied or even shot and that incident two years ago where two Korean girls were run over by an APC/Tank. I think a good number of Koreans would not be sad to see the last of American presence in South Korea.

Cathenia

Korea is tired of being the playground for Sino-Japanese and Sino-American conflicts. One of my students, an ex-RoK Air Force intelligence officer who graduated from political science said, while we were discussing their compulsary military service, that they needed it to defend against their enemies - North Korea, China, Japan (major hatred for those guys, especially in the light of the recent textbook controversy) and - surprise, surprise - America.

Korea basically wants to have the freedom to act as a sovereign political entity.

Cathenia

Korea is tired of being the playground for Sino-Japanese and Sino-American conflicts. One of my students, an ex-RoK Air Force intelligence officer who graduated from political science said, while we were discussing their compulsary military service, that they needed it to defend against their enemies - North Korea, China, Japan (major hatred for those guys, especially in the light of the recent textbook controversy) and - surprise, surprise - America.

Korea basically wants to have the freedom to act as a sovereign political entity.

Cathenia

I agree. I think Korea should be reunited, and then all the powers get their butts out of the peninsula. The Korean peninsula has suffered too much for too long.

North Korea would lose, simply because it wouldn't just be South Korea but South Korea + the U.S. against the DPRK. They've got a huge army simply because of forced conscription, but it would all get flattened by Tomahawk missiles, airpower, artillery and such.

However, before their utter defeat, there's a slight possibility the DPRK could send nukes against Seoul, Japan or even Seattle out of spite, but that would require working ballistic missiles and it's not sure how many they have and if the launch sites could be destroyed before launch.

What's way more likely and almost as terrifying is that they have huge stockpiles of chemical weapons and they would definitely start by hitting the border, capital city Seoul and the other big cities of South Korea. If they have nerve agents like VX (http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=156175) we could be looking at hundreds of thousands, maybe over a million casualties.

Any war between the Koreas will be orchestrated from Beijing and Washington. Washington doesn't give piss about North Korea's human rights record. I believe the stalemate will continue unless either China or America is willing to give the other power hegemony in NE Asia. Not likely.

Like Murray the evil skull says in Monkey Island "I may be evil, but I'm not stupid."

I don't think North Korea's leaders want to commit flaming suicide while taking a hundred million down with them as long as they can manage to hold off open aggression. And like I said, if America plays its cards wrongly you may see South Korea siding with the North! Unbelievable? When North Korea beat Japan this last month, my students were cheering for their northern brethren. Remember, human beings tend to band together in a clutch and the Koreans I think will be no different - as long as NoKor doesn't do a stupid thing like nuke or send VX gas to Seoul or Pusan.

Cathenia

"When North Korea beat Japan this last month, my students were cheering for their northern brethren."

Couldn't be a sore nerve over the Japanese occupation of Korea, could it?

well they naturally hate the Japanese but it's also common cause. A lot, if not all think of themselves as just 'Korean' not necessarily north and south and their president is doing his level best to keep the tension from escalating, shipping stuff north to help out Pyongyang.

Seoul is only a few hours from Panmunjom (the DMZ border town) so it doesn't take much imagination to think of what will happen if war breaks out. Korea's also developed A LOT (not bad for a country that's been at war since the 1950's) - they make their own fighters (the new T-50's just been tried out), electronics, cars and Aegis destroyers. They're not about to lose that just because Washington or Beijing says jump. They're not afraid to protest or die to get their point across (May 18, 1980, Kwangju Massacre - an Uzbekistan-style fire-into-a-crowd-of-'dissidents' tragedy) and I think they're pretty serious when they say they'll stand by North Korea if they're threatened by a foreign power, if only as a deterrent to open war.

Cathenia

South Korea.

They have the equipment and training. North Korea's gear is all chi-com bloc surplus. I doubt their tanks, if they still run, are even equipped with infa-red targeting systems. Their economy is non-existent, because there is no private sector in which developments can take place; the minds of the people are not allowed to work. Add this to the fact that South Korea has one of the best equipped, most practically advanced and heavily drilled militaries today... turkey shoot.

Numbers mean little now. Iraq's official military outnumbered the coalition 4-1, look how hard they were to beat. Iraq was better equipped too, at least in the first gulf war.

Okay, here it goes. Both Koreas HATE the Japenese for what they did during their occupation. Many Korean-Americans do too. South Korea hates any type of communism, and they would like to see the americans leave. But they don't actively dislike them. North Korea hates the US and South Korea, the US and Japan hates North Korea, and tensions between China and the US are strained.