NationStates Jolt Archive

Poor Paul Martin. He is the PM of a minority government. The various parties all hate him, and even some of his Liberals hate him, too. To make matters worse, he is very unpopular with both politicians and voters. Now he is in the midst of scandal. I expect that in only a few months, a bid of no confidence will pass, sending him home.
It is likely that in this mess, a new election will be called, as a minority government can't go on forever. If this happens, however, we may reach a watershed moment in Canadian history. Bloc Quebecois is gaining popularity in Quebec. It may be likely that they will thrust a referendum on independence for Quebec.
Remember, the last referendum in 1995 failed by a razor-thin margin. Who knows if it will pass or fail, but if it passes, then it seems very likely that a new state will be born.
If that happens, however, will the Canadian federation fall apart? I've heard a few complaints on NS that Canadians are more loyal to their provinces than the federal government. There are also profound differences. The Atlantic provinces are rural, and resent fishing moratoriums placed on them by Ottowa. Ontario is dominated by industrialized Toronto, with the rest of the province being made of farmers. The Prarie provinces are very conservative and agrarian, and Alberta is rolling in hydrocarbon wealth it probably isn't happy sharing with the rest of Canada. Don't know much about British Colombia, except that they are hippies:). And of course, the Iniuts will be salivating at the chance for their own state.
So, is it possible? Might we have a dozen nations to the north of the US? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

As an american, all I have to say is that it's nice that the canadian government appears to be as corrupt as the city of Chicago.

If Canada disentigrates, they will fight, the US will step in and invade canada and just make them all states.

I like it

If Canada disentigrates, they will fight

why?

I take it none of you are from Canada. The earliest Quebec can have another referendum is in three years. The provincial Liberals are in power in Quebec, so there is no chance of it happening in the near future.

In the most recent poll the Liberals have a slight lead over the Conservatives overall. If Steven Harper, the leader of the Conservatives, is silly enough to call an election before the Gomery inquiry, a lot of voters will be upset, because Martin said that he'd call an election within 30 days after Gomery has released his final report, which will mean an election in January or early February.

Even if the Conservatives do win, it will be another minority government, which means another election within a year most likely.

I would also argue that States in the US have a lot more independence than provinces in Canada in regards to federal vs. state/province powers.

BTW, anyone from the UK? They're in the middle of an election right now. Blair is getting dragged through the mud, but it looks like he's going to win again.

Invade Canada!
Hehe :)

Poor Paul Martin. He is the PM of a minority government. The various parties all hate him, and even some of his Liberals hate him, too. To make matters worse, he is very unpopular with both politicians and voters. Now he is in the midst of scandal. I expect that in only a few months, a bid of no confidence will pass, sending him home.
It is likely that in this mess, a new election will be called, as a minority government can't go on forever. If this happens, however, we may reach a watershed moment in Canadian history. Bloc Quebecois is gaining popularity in Quebec. It may be likely that they will thrust a referendum on independence for Quebec.
Remember, the last referendum in 1995 failed by a razor-thin margin. Who knows if it will pass or fail, but if it passes, then it seems very likely that a new state will be born.
If that happens, however, will the Canadian federation fall apart? I've heard a few complaints on NS that Canadians are more loyal to their provinces than the federal government. There are also profound differences. The Atlantic provinces are rural, and resent fishing moratoriums placed on them by Ottowa. Ontario is dominated by industrialized Toronto, with the rest of the province being made of farmers. The Prarie provinces are very conservative and agrarian, and Alberta is rolling in hydrocarbon wealth it probably isn't happy sharing with the rest of Canada. Don't know much about British Colombia, except that they are hippies:). And of course, the Iniuts will be salivating at the chance for their own state.
So, is it possible? Might we have a dozen nations to the north of the US? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Put your crystal ball away. Canada has been down this road many times before and I suspect the results will be the same.

Quebec is much stronger as a part of Canada because of the official languages act, among other things. Quebecers on the whole are not re-generating their heritage in sufficient numbers despite provincial incentives to do so. The logistics of separation are mind boggling, especially when considering Indian land claims for the majority of the province. There would also be the possibility of a mass exodous of Anglophones from the Province and then there is the question of how much of the national debt that they would incur.

The French language and culture is much more secure inside the Canadian framework, and would be severely jeopardized by a separation.

As far as an another election is concerned, it would more than likely still be another minority government, probably Liberal but either way, the new government would be faced with the headache of an increased Bloc representation, which would further hamper the conducting of business. This is probably the main reason that MOST Canadians do not want an election at this time.

Harper is trying to grab power but at the expense of a weakened federal government, and if Canadians are forced to go to the polls, they very well could give the Liberals another majority.

If Canada disentigrates, they will fight, the US will step in and invade canada and just make them all states.

I like it

A few more blue states? I like it.

Invade Canada. I like it, it will give my war speech some meaning.

Ok enough of my innane rantings aside, they probably won't split up. The US isn't splitting up, and we've got at least as much talk about splitting up.

As a foreign newspaper headlined "How can 54 million people be so dumb?" after Bush won, anyone think a similar headline will be there if Blair wins again? Somehow I doubt it. Notice how the "arrogant" Amerians won't blast Blair and the UK with such an insult if he wins.

Just tired of the world being pissed off at America because we've decided to act like a leader and put pressure of those who are the true tyrants of the world...

National Review (http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200504290803.asp)

The US isn't splitting up, and we've got at least as much talk about splitting up.

Wha? I know anti-Bush....err I mean Democrats.... no wait, ok, liberals were pissed about the election but almost all of the people who I've spoken to who voted for Kerry would never think to split the US.

BLAME CANADA!

but seriously - though I don't know a whole lot about Canada it seems like the martin governmnet might fall which in itself wouldn't doom Canada. But when I was talking with a group of Canadian teenagers (I know, they were teenagers - probobly didn't have the greatest grasp on national politics) they gave the impression that while Canada isn't as divided and fragmented as the US those divisions are more geographically convinient for seccesion IE - french Quebec or conservative Alberta. I could see those two, and the possibility of another one or two of the majority conservative provinces breaking off with the rest staying in the union and then after 20 years they'd all get back together again

Wha? I know anti-Bush....err I mean Democrats.... no wait, ok, liberals were pissed about the election but almost all of the people who I've spoken to who voted for Kerry would never think to split the US.

not that they would, but they couldn't

near all of the states that were won with a clear majority went red, the democrats couldn't gather enough state level supprt for seccesion becausee the things that divide us don't exist on the state vs. state level (province vs. province) like they do in Canada

some parties in Canada theoretically could get enough support for seccesion like the french Canadians did in '95

Wha? I know anti-Bush....err I mean Democrats.... no wait, ok, liberals were pissed about the election but almost all of the people who I've spoken to who voted for Kerry would never think to split the US.


My point exactly. It's all talk, no action.

I've been trying to understand this for awhile....one thing that would really help: What do the conservative and liberal political parties of Canada stand for? (Bloc Quebois is obvious). Are they anything like the Republicans and Democrats of the US? And are conservatives mostly rural and liberals mostly urban like in the US?

In answer to the question posed by the thread title...

No.

Poor Paul Martin. He is the PM of a minority government. The various parties all hate him, and even some of his Liberals hate him, too. To make matters worse, he is very unpopular with both politicians and voters. Now he is in the midst of scandal. I expect that in only a few months, a bid of no confidence will pass, sending him home.
It is likely that in this mess, a new election will be called, as a minority government can't go on forever. If this happens, however, we may reach a watershed moment in Canadian history. Bloc Quebecois is gaining popularity in Quebec. It may be likely that they will thrust a referendum on independence for Quebec.
Remember, the last referendum in 1995 failed by a razor-thin margin. Who knows if it will pass or fail, but if it passes, then it seems very likely that a new state will be born.

No, it doesn't actually.

The Supreme Court of Canada already ruled quite some time back that Quebec doesn't have the authority to unilaterally secede from the rest of the country no matter how strong a majority vote they might ever someday manage to get on a referendum. These referendums that pop up every so often from the Bloc are mostly just sabre rattling. They're not going to actually secede, and I really doubt even the bloc actually wants to except for the real hardliner idiots. For one thing they would never be permitted to keep using the national currency, and don't expect the. U.S. to let them adopt theirs either because that'll never happen... and their economy would immediately be thrown into turmoil. For another no matter if they get 50%+ on a referendum or not that still leaves a LOT of people in the province who have no interest at all in leaving Canada and that would have to be dealt with somehow. Right now Quebec is receiving far more federal funds per capita than most provices and they'd have to kiss that goodbye too... and the U.S. has previously stated they would not recognize Quebec as a sovereign nation if it seceded without the support of the rest of Canada, which they won't get... and I could go on for pages.

Also, the last referendum came within a close margin of getting 50%... which would not be sufficient since a clear majority vote on such a thing needs to be made before it can even be considered to negotiate a possible secession. I doubt anything less than 60% would be considered "clear" on a question like this. And, also according to the Supreme Court, it has to be on a clear question on if the voter wants to leave Canada... which the last referendum was definitely not. I recall they actually polled Quebecers seperately at the time on their understanding of the referendum and asked them what they thought a yes vote meant and a rather significant percentage of them were not under the impression it meant seceding, which is the only reason they got numbers as high as they did then. With the passage of the Clarity Act they won't be able to pull that one off again. If they want to try it now they'll have to ask a straight up and down "Should Quebec secede from Canada" type question which, quite frankly, won't pass.

And as for the 'scandal'... every time I see it brought up on these boards it's getting blown way out of proportion.

Even "Should Quebec secede from Canada" is not too clear because a lot of people don't know what secede means. It would have to say "separate", however correct me if I'm wrong, but the Clarity Act hasn't been passes yet. I know this is a non-issued assuming it gets passes sometime in the next few years.

California Refugee, in Canada we have 4.5 major parties in Canada. The full parties are:

Liberal, who are more in the center, but are leaning toward the left these days with Gay Marriage and pot, but they are still the most realistic option in my opinion;

Conservatives cover a broad range on the spectrum, some members are ultra right wing, while others are just right of the Liberal

The New Democratic Pary (NDP) are the most left, and are pro social programs, anti corporate tax cuts

The Bloc are for separation, but they are also fairly left and similar to the NDP, even though they seem to be teaming up with the Conservatives lately

The Green party is...for the environment I suppose, I'm not too sure.

Even "Should Quebec secede from Canada" is not too clear because a lot of people don't know what secede means. It would have to say "separate", however correct me if I'm wrong, but the Clarity Act hasn't been passes yet. I know this is a non-issued assuming it gets passes sometime in the next few years.

California Refugee, in Canada we have 4.5 major parties in Canada. The full parties are:

Liberal, who are more in the center, but are leaning toward the left these days with Gay Marriage and pot, but they are still the most realistic option in my opinion;

Conservatives cover a broad range on the spectrum, some members are ultra right wing, while others are just right of the Liberal

The New Democratic Pary (NDP) are the most left, and are pro social programs, anti corporate tax cuts

The Bloc are for separation, but they are also fairly left and similar to the NDP, even though they seem to be teaming up with the Conservatives lately

The Green party is...for the environment I suppose, I'm not too sure.
The Clarity Act (http://www.pco-bcp.gc.ca/aia/default.asp?Language=E&page=consfile&sub=clarityact) was enacted in 2000.

Thanks, now I'm clear ;)