NationStates Jolt Archive

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-04/25/content_2877652.htm
The Saudis have promised an astronomical leap in their production of oil, from 9 mil. to 15 mil. barrels per day. While it'd be great if it did happen, is it even geologically possible?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-04/25/content_2877652.htm
The Saudis have promised an astronomical leap in their production of oil, from 9 mil. to 15 mil. barrels per day. While it'd be great if it did happen, is it even geologically possible?

No one really knows how much oil is there, or anywhere else for that matter. We shall see.

No one really knows how much oil is there, or anywhere else for that matter. We shall see.
It's not really a question on how much oil there is. It is more about if that production is geologically feasible. Oil production, I know, can be frustrating at times. But maybe I know very little about the subject.

sure its geologically possible, they'll just be wasting oil that much faster but there's no question of whether the earth itself can handle the increase in production

There are a bunch of things to consider when it comes to oil production and how much oil is left in the world. I will list some off the top of my head and provide brief commentary and links if I have them. I am in no way an expert or even someone who has done any significant amount of research into this and have no idea what is true or not.

1)When people talk about an oil well being "dry", they dont mean empty. Generally, based on the quality of oil and the difficulty in obtaining it, there can as much as 25%-50% of the oil left in a "dry" well. As technology improves and if oil prices go up enough then it might become viable to tap this oil.

2)Similar to above, there are oil reserves that are untapped because the grade is so low and it is difficult to process it. I believe the Canadian oil shale is the largest reserve known in the world but no one touches it because it doesnt make economic sense. Again with better tech or higher oil prices this changes.
http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/shale/shale.asp

3)Oil priced in a freely fluctuating currency(Dollars). Because oil is transacted in $/barrel and the $ is a freely and wildly fluctuating currency, it is often difficult for oil companies to expand capacity in many known reserves. Their production costs might not be in dollars, and there might start a project that by the time it is online, they will have to close down because of the $ price of oil relative to the currency where they are incuring their production and other costs(They might be losing on a variable cost basis).

This wasnt the case when the dollar was on the gold standard(not that I am advocating the gold standard). If the FED chose to control the relative value of the dollar instead of money supply/interest rates as a tool to control the economy, this could change.

Of course there is a huge downside to this as we learned in the Great Depression and Japan is still learning now.

4) Oil might not be a "fossil fuel". There is a theory that has some support
that oil is not the product of biomass, rather a product of the earth itself. If this is the case then there is far less worry about it running out.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645


Okay, here is some stuff to think about if you guys didnt already know about it. Maybe the whole"oil is running out" is just a scam. I believe a US Treasury secretary thought oil was almost done almost 100 yrs back when it hit $3 a barrel.

EDIT: Anybody know anything about this worldnetdaily.com? It almost seems like a parody site. Like the National enquirer or something. Looking at the other stories, its looks kind of dicey.

Don't forget that oil just starts the process of gasoline and heating oil and diesel oil. Oil refineries still need to be built to keep up with the demand for those products if we want the price of gas to come down. The real solution is finding other sources of energy.

Don't forget that oil just starts the process of gasoline and heating oil and diesel oil. Oil refineries still need to be built to keep up with the demand for those products if we want the price of gas to come down. The real solution is finding other sources of energy.
We have millions of threads on here that talk of long term solutions. However, we need one now.

We have millions of threads on here that talk of long term solutions. However, we need one now.

Don't you think that the longer gas stays up and even goes higher we will be more likely to find a solution. Besides any solution that is going to work now, besides oil going down to 25$ a barrel, must be able to replace gasoline in the supply system. Cars will need to run on it just like they do on gasoline. The replacement must be pumped from the gas stations just like gasoline.

Don't you think that the longer gas stays up and even goes higher we will be more likely to find a solution. Besides any solution that is going to work now, besides oil going down to 25$ a barrel, must be able to replace gasoline in the supply system. Cars will need to run on it just like they do on gasoline. The replacement must be pumped from the gas stations just like gasoline.
But that is something for engineering and research firms to worry about. Some great "alternative" energy firms exist that are good investment bets, but none are for replacing gasoline in cars, which will be the most lucrative of them all. Until then, I don't mind knocking down the price of Texas Tea a few notches.

Right now the true nature of the Saudi fields is a crap shoot. No one is really sure how much oil the Saudis have left, or how close the fields are to being tapped out. I won't bore you with the details, but the largest field (Ghawar) is either in great shape for the next 50 years (Saudis), already pumping 50% or more water (one company) or somewhere in between. Even if production is drastically increased, however, American refinery capacity is maxed out and has been for the past 15 years, so gas prices are likely to pretty much sit still. The oil companies could build a new refinery or three, but why do that when you can reap the benefits of higher gas prices and save the investment instead?

As for the piece about oil naturally reoccuring, don't trust anything from worldnetdaily.com, including that. Chemically what they describe is just not feasible, for several reasons that should be common sense to anyone with an understanding of petroleum. Canada's tar sands, however, are currently in production, now that oil is expensive enough to make the extraction process worth it, and Colorado's oil shale probably is not too far behind.

As for the piece about oil naturally reoccuring, don't trust anything from worldnetdaily.com, including that. Chemically what they describe is just not feasible, for several reasons that should be common sense to anyone with an understanding of petroleum. Canada's tar sands, however, are currently in production, now that oil is expensive enough to make the extraction process worth it, and Colorado's oil shale probably is not too far behind.

I caught that about worldnetdaily after I saw their other stories. Scary stuff. Between the first time I read that article and the time I googled it to get a link there are no others stories about it. Makes it doubly fishy

Right now the true nature of the Saudi fields is a crap shoot. No one is really sure how much oil the Saudis have left, or how close the fields are to being tapped out. I won't bore you with the details, but the largest field (Ghawar) is either in great shape for the next 50 years (Saudis), already pumping 50% or more water (one company) or somewhere in between. Even if production is drastically increased, however, American refinery capacity is maxed out and has been for the past 15 years, so gas prices are likely to pretty much sit still. The oil companies could build a new refinery or three, but why do that when you can reap the benefits of higher gas prices and save the investment instead?

Good point, but I must disagree. Right now, the oil companies are making money. The status quo can remain until maybe about $90//barrel. But higher than that price, the economy will hurt, and because of the fluid nature of economies, it will come back tko haunt oil coompanies. If they wish to do some long term planning, a few new refineries tommarow may not be a bad idea.

Is it light crude or heavy crude? heavy is more refinery intensive, light is easier to process. Thus back to refinery capicity.

EDIT: Anybody know anything about this worldnetdaily.com? It almost seems like a parody site. Like the National enquirer or something. Looking at the other stories, its looks kind of dicey.

World Net Daily is a Christian news site which makes Fox News look liberal. Honestly, I like them. They are also good for finding religion stories that don't get reported in the mainstream media.

Is it light crude or heavy crude? heavy is more refinery intensive, light is easier to process. Thus back to refinery capicity.

Actually, from what I understand of petroleum and its by products, heavy fuels are easier to produce because they are closer to crude oil whereas light fuels are much harder to refine because they contain more chemicals other than petroleum than heavy fuels, Could be mistaken, but it makes some sense b/c isn't diesel a heavy fuel? and it's always cheaper than gasoline

Actually, from what I understand of petroleum and its by products, heavy fuels are easier to produce because they are closer to crude oil whereas light fuels are much harder to refine because they contain more chemicals other than petroleum than heavy fuels, Could be mistaken, but it makes some sense b/c isn't diesel a heavy fuel? and it's always cheaper than gasoline

That was the point of the above post. It's easier to get the heavy versions, but it's the light versions that we use the most of (gas, diesel, aviation fuel, etc), hence it's better to get the light crude to make it easier to produce the light distillates. And diesel is usually cheaper than gas because they don't refine it so much. As you notice, there is one version of diesel, but two or three versions of gas at most service stations.

World Net Daily is a Christian news site which makes Fox News look liberal. Honestly, I like them. They are also good for finding religion stories that don't get reported in the mainstream media.
*shakes fist at republican media*

Is it light crude or heavy crude? heavy is more refinery intensive, light is easier to process. Thus back to refinery capicity.
Don't know. But I thought the Saudis have only light crude.

here is a link to heavy oil.

http://www.lloydminsterheavyoil.com/whatislaunch.htm

here is a link to heavy oil light oil.

http://www.ivanhoe-energy.com/s/HTL.asp

and here is a link to saudi oil, although it was a last years news.

http://www.energybulletin.net/2358.html

So if you want gasoline for your car, and that is what seems to be driving the market right now.
The world econemy is expanding, and everyone wants there own car. we need more refineries, or better technology to refine heavy crude to gasoline.

I have a feeling that we will not see oil run out any time soon. But suppose there is enough oil for the next several generations? Will the earth's atmosphere be able to withstand another 100 or 200 years of pollution from combustion engines? What will the air quality be like? How will it effect the food we grow?
As more people in China and India are able to buy cars and the fuel to run them the next ten years could easily see autmobile usage double worldwide.

An alternative source of fuel needs to be found regardless of the availability of oil.
More people have to start practicing a degree of conservation. And they have to make this a part of life that their children can make part of theirs.