NationStates Jolt Archive

Seriously, do you buy into all this "Murphys' Law" crap?

Do you honestly believe that any pattern you might see --advantageous of disadvantageous --is a result of some sort of Fate?

Seriously, do you buy into all this "Murphys' Law" crap?

Do you honestly believe that any pattern you might see --advantageous of disadvantageous --is a result of some sort of Fate?

Actually, it's a rule of thumb in engineering, that's all. (And a good one to boot).

It is widely misunderstood.

I think Murphy's Law is more tounge in cheek than you seem to indicate. I'm not convinced it's a logically viable stand point to actually believe in it.

Actually, it's a rule of thumb in engineering, that's all. (And a good one to boot).

It is widely misunderstood.
Explain, please.

Actually, it's a rule of thumb in engineering, that's all. (And a good one to boot).

It is widely misunderstood.

Really? Is it basically more like "if it can go wrong it probably will" and for this reason engineers try to plan for almost every contingency?

Your taking something WAY too seriously.

Alright:

Never design a structural connection with just one bolt.

You see?

Your taking something WAY too seriously.
Or maybe *they* are.

Alright:

Never design a structural connection with just one bolt.

You see?
So, it's like, use enough of any particular connector?

Explain, please.

I believe it has meaning in engineering, not as "Law" but as a reminder to idiot-proof and plan for contingencies or failures.

Seriously, do you buy into all this "Murphys' Law" crap?

I believe there is a band called "Murphy's Law." Nasty skinheads, but decent punk music. :p :D

Do you honestly believe that any pattern you might see --advantageous of disadvantageous --is a result of some sort of Fate?

No. I agree that is rather ridiculous.

I believe it has meaning in engineering, not as "Law" but as a reminder to idiot-proof and plan for contingencies or failures.
So, it's like Engineers are basically idiots?

Murphy's Law is a lot like me:

If I'm presented with an opportunity to do something pointlessly shocking, amusing and a little bit twisted, I probably will. :D

Murphy's Law is a lot like me:

If I'm presented with an opportunity to do something pointlessly shocking, amusing and a little bit twisted, I probably will. :D
Now it all makes sense! ;)

Actually, I like that you personalize it. It allows for the symbol to have more meaning.

It allows for you to have more, too.

Murphy's law... I do believe it exists to some extent that if it can go wrong it will. And combine that with the fact that engineers are no-nonsense, very logical people you will have them overbuilding things.

So, it's like, use enough of any particular connector?

Not really. Bolts are pretty much all pre-manufactured, and cheap. Often, on design specs, a single bolt will do the job, so why not just go with one? Because as everyone knows, there are such a thing as manufacturing defects. So just jam two in instead. It can still go wrong of course, but now the chances of failure have been incredibly minimized.

In other words, don't design faults into a system you already know about. Because, you know it *can* go wrong.

So, it's like Engineers are basically idiots?

Given that my wife is a civil engineer, I cannot answer that question on the grounds it will incriminate me.

Seriously, it is more that the users of things will be idiots. So you better make things so the idiot can't easily break it, hurt himself, etc.

The plan for contingencies and failures is different. Expect some bolts may fail. Some concrete may crumble. Some connection may go out. So try to include fail safes and back-ups.

I may be totally wrong here -- as this is all second hand from having various types of engineers as friends.

But realize this isn't justifying the "Law" just saying the law is a shorthand engineers use as a reminder that people and things screw up and you should plan for it when designing or building things.

I believe it has meaning in engineering, not as "Law" but as a reminder to idiot-proof and plan for contingencies or failures.

Not so much idiot proof. That's more egonomics &c. Basically, it is a reminder to pay attention to any possible flaws in your design. In other words, even though it is impossible, you should design something that will never fail under the given specs.*

But yeah, you should always look for any potential failures and design them out as far is necessary and practical.


*And this is where lawyers and engineer often angrily part ways, the meaning of specs, and failure.

Given that my wife is a civil engineer, I cannot answer that question on the grounds it will incriminate me.


No shit. Wow. I have an MS in structural engineering. You see, I knew I liked you.


That's it. Definite end times..

Now it all makes sense! ;)

Actually, I like that you personalize it. It allows for the symbol to have more meaning.

It allows for you to have more, too.

A good friend once asked, as I was carefully taping a jockstrap to the rear bumper of someone's car, if I spend my whole day specifically looking for opportunities to get my ass kicked. I just nodded and told him to tear off another piece. :)

No shit. Wow. I have an MS in structural engineering.

Yep. And many of my close friends in college were engineering students. Don't know why -- just happened that way.

And I practice a lot of patent law -- and most of my co-workers have science or engineering degrees. I'm a bit of a black sheep in the office -- when I interviewed I went for an "engineer by osmosis" angle. :D

You see, I knew I liked you.

That's it. Definite end times..

*kicks dirt and stares and ground* Yeah. I guess I like you too. :D

When two arrogant bastards get off on the wrong foot, they really do it right.

Despite wanting to kill you for a few days, I could recognize we had a lot in common. (Which only pissed me off more at the time ;) ).

I need to go pack my bags for purgatory.

Yep. And many of my close friends in college were engineering students. Don't know why -- just happened that way.

And I practice a lot of patent law -- and most of my co-workers have science or engineering degrees. I'm a bit of a black sheep in the office -- when I interviewed I went for an "engineer by osmosis" angle. :D



*kicks dirt and stares and ground* Yeah. I guess I like you too. :D

When two arrogant bastards get off on the wrong foot, they really do it right.

Despite wanting to kill you for a few days, I could recognize we had a lot in common. (Which only pissed me off more at the time ;) ).

I need to go pack my bags for purgatory.


You know what though, all's well that ends well. That's the main thing. :)

Edit: And we both have cats, so neither of us could ever have been that bad.

You know what though, all's well that ends well. That's the main thing. :)

Careful. You're gonna get me all misty eyed. :)

A few more drinks and I'll be puttin' my arm around you and trying to get you to sing along to the Pogues. :D

C'mon, ju nowsh the werds: "I'm a free born man of the USA ..."

EDIT: Yay! Any friend of a cat is a friend of mine.

And we should stop hijacking this thread before Willamena kicks our asses.

Careful. You're gonna get me all misty eyed. :)

A few more drinks and I'll be puttin' my arm around you and trying to get you to sing along to the Pogues. :D

C'mon, ju nowsh the werds: "I'm a free born man of the USA ..."
*Hands The Cat-Tribe and Lacadaemon some drinks.*

:D hey some lasting friendships begins with arguments.

Careful. You're gonna get me all misty eyed. :)

A few more drinks and I'll be puttin' my arm around you and trying to get you to sing along to the Pogues. :D

C'mon, ju nowsh the werds: "I'm a free born man of the USA ..."

EDIT: Yay! Any friend of a cat is a friend of mine.

And we should stop hijacking this thread before Willamena kicks our asses.

Careful now, I am half english. :p,

But it's all good. I'll toast the pogues anyway.

I feel I should explain, and apologize for the post disparaging engineers. I'm sorry. It's just that Murphy's Law (that anything that can go wrong will go wrong) has its roots in Fate, and to allow this "Law" to dictate future actions is directly buying into the concept of Fate. The whole idea of Fate (and how pervasive it is in our lives) angers me, that people would allow circumstances to rule them, to blow them around like a leaf in the wind, rather than stepping up and doing something about circumstances.

I don't know the true origins of Murphy's law, but I always thought it was rooted from military sub culture.

In battle everything that isn't supposed to go wrong, will go wrong. Therefore we always trained for contingencies and anything else that was chaotic.

There's even a poster of the top 20 laws of Murphy, i.e. incoming fire has the right away.

I feel I should explain, and apologize for the post disparaging engineers. I'm sorry. It's just that Murphy's Law (that anything that can go wrong will go wrong) has its roots in Fate, and to allow this "Law" to dictate future actions is directly buying into the concept of Fate. The whole idea of Fate (and how pervasive it is in our lives) angers me, that people would allow circumstances to rule them, to blow them around like a leaf in the wind, rather than stepping up and doing something about circumstances.

I dont think anyone thinks of it as a serious or even semi serious law. It just that things frequently dont live up to expectations so people joke about it and say murphys law.

if you want to be anal about it, then you would have to establish whether or not (through further research into quantum physics) events can trully occur randomly....

If every event is simply a result of cause and effect, then in a sense everything is fated... that is to say, if you witnessed the flight of a butterfly, went back in time and witnessed the same butterfly then the flight path would be exactly the same (the only uncertainty about this concept comes from quantum physics, and this has not been resolved yet so dont come at me with quantum physics says blah blah coz i allready know)

Now, considering all that, then a coincidence, while not having any specific meaning, is not a coincidence at all....

Infact many coincidences can be explained, for example you may be sitting at your desk, then reach for the phone moments before it starts ringing.... this can potentially be 'scientifically explained' however these explanations are not entirely believable but whatever...

/ Anyway these arent the types of coincidences im talking about, im talking about coincidences such as breaking up with a girl, then meeting her at the same speedating event a week later, or a planet exploding into two parts, each travelling millions of lightyears in opposite directions only to collide billions of years later... these things are meaningless, but are seen as coincidences... However depending on which stance popular science takes within say the next decade we cannot say whether or not coincidences even exist (from a scientific perspective of course)

confused? then my work is done :D

most people when making plans of whatever sort take a "what could possibly go wrong?" attitude. meaning they look at everything through rose colored glasses. murphy's law reminds us that plans often go wrong and careful thought is required.

If every event is simply a result of cause and effect, then in a sense everything is fated...
Everything is not a result of cause and effect. Humans can cause actions.

I think the point is that, if a certain event has a continuous non-zero probability of happening, and you give it until the end of time to happen, it will eventually happen.

eg if you roll a die from now until eternity, the probability that you won't roll a two is 0%.

For a bridge, if there are half a million 1.5-ton vehicles passing over it every day, wearing the same stresspoints in the same places, and you just leave it there w/out any repair hoping it'll stand, you'll probably end up being very disappointed.

most people when making plans of whatever sort take a "what could possibly go wrong?" attitude. meaning they look at everything through rose colored glasses. murphy's law reminds us that plans often go wrong and careful thought is required.
I appreciate that it does some good, but Muphy's Law is an acceptance Fate. It's not the same as saying, I'm going to prepare for things going wrong. It may mean that, and wise people may use it that way, but the idea goes the extra step and gives "life" or personification to the concept that these things can manipulate themselves into being wrong.

That's what's pervasive, and so subtly so that people don't even think about it.

Actually certain research psychologist believe that the 'murphy mentality' as you pointed out, can lead to dementia... Its mainly a behaviourist view, but through streamlining of cognitive processes (ok yes i said behavioural but im attemtping to articulate a behavioural process without knowing the correct terminology) can in essence due to overthinking and creating learned responses to stimuli which may or may not have been experienced, result in 'automated responses' without any cognition... Now this process is seen a lot in our day to day lives, but it also leads to abnormal behaviours, in the case of dementia a cynical view of life and a 'murphy mentality' can systematically block thought processes... eventually this leads to 'blockage' without even adressing new issues.

I apologise for the lack of terminology again, the point is through a learned process people remove cues and 'de-elaborate' schemas. Again this is seen in a number of positive thought mechanisms....

When i reffer to the 'murphy mentality' i am talking about people who think things through to the extent of not actually attempting something due to possible dangers/failure.... This mechanism when fully developed becomes generalised to basic thought processes. Thus leading to dementia... It would also explain away the question of why there is a trend for people with high intelligence quotas to develop some form of dementia.

This has nothing to do with the thread, or infact anything, but my fingers got some good exercise :D

(seriously though think about it, next time you express an opinion, ask yourself why you have that opinion, the more you express an opinion the less you are able to explain why (coherantly at least)) You see this a lot in old people, they rant a lot but dont say anything intelligent.

If you are confused you should be, does any of this make sense? who knows

Do i have anything better to do? Hell no

Everything is not a result of cause and effect. Humans can cause actions.

Are you saying the human brain is exempt from the laws of physics?

Actually certain research psychologist believe that the 'murphy mentality' as you pointed out, can lead to dementia... Its mainly a behaviourist view, but through streamlining of cognitive processes (ok yes i said behavioural but im attemtping to articulate a behavioural process without knowing the correct terminology) can in essence due to overthinking and creating learned responses to stimuli which may or may not have been experienced, result in 'automated responses' without any cognition... Now this process is seen a lot in our day to day lives, but it also leads to abnormal behaviours, in the case of dementia a cynical view of life and a 'murphy mentality' can systematically block thought processes... eventually this leads to 'blockage' without even adressing new issues.

I apologise for the lack of terminology again, the point is through a learned process people remove cues and 'de-elaborate' schemas. Again this is seen in a number of positive thought mechanisms....

When i reffer to the 'murphy mentality' i am talking about people who think things through to the extent of not actually attempting something due to possible dangers/failure.... This mechanism when fully developed becomes generalised to basic thought processes. Thus leading to dementia... It would also explain away the question of why there is a trend for people with high intelligence quotas to develop some form of dementia.

This has nothing to do with the thread, or infact anything, but my fingers got some good exercise :D

(seriously though think about it, next time you express an opinion, ask yourself why you have that opinion, the more you express an opinion the less you are able to explain why (coherantly at least)) You see this a lot in old people, they rant a lot but dont say anything intelligent.

If you are confused you should be, does any of this make sense? who knows

Do i have anything better to do? Hell no

Interesting. I think I'm guilty of thinking things through too much sometimes. Do you have some links to any of this information?

(seriously though think about it, next time you express an opinion, ask yourself why you have that opinion, the more you express an opinion the less you are able to explain why (coherantly at least)) You see this a lot in old people, they rant a lot but dont say anything intelligent.
LOL!!! :D

Are you saying the human brain is exempt from the laws of physics?
No, I'm saying the human mind is.

This has all come out of my head, the dementia issue itself comes from behavioural psychology and has nothing at all to do with murphy's law... Its just one of the behavioural approches to dementia... I was just here to make the connection since we were discussing murphy.

As far as thinking things through too much, the danger is that you will stop thinking things through too much and make decisions based on 'prior experience' which you may or may not have. The solution is simple, never think yourself out of doing something and you will never fall into a vicious cycle

Then again, this IS a mechanism our brain uses to economise thought processes, i dont think its possible to escape it completely, but you can decide when not to use it, if you realise your using it that is.

Psychoanalasis describes a similar process but with a different scope, repression is essentially the same mechanism but as with all psychological theory approaches are non compatable, and you cant really generalise anything without running into exceptions and problems.

I hope i havnt scared you with my ranting and i hope this post has reassured you a little :D

No, I'm saying the human mind is.

Fair enough, that would rely on a number of things... the human soul? god? quantum physics?

Well the closest we are gonna get is through quantum physics unless god comes down to earth and announces that he is infact real....

If there is no god, and we get passed the current barrier that exists within quantum physics (im reffering to quarks, and the multiple possible state bullcrap) Then it could well be the case that all human thought is as much cause and effect as knocking over dominoes.... In this case then humans arent actually self aware (for example an artificial intelligence on a computer would have to have knowledge of the context within which it exists, eg knowing it is a computer and its thoughts are code) to be considered self aware) err what im saying is this sortof creates a paradox, if this was the case, and we were not truly free thinking then by realising this, you would also realise that it is cause and effect which led to you realising this, and from the moment time began you were going to realise it, you would also realise that this thought was not truly your own, but a result of all passed experience and external stimuli, furthermore you would realise that nothing can be done with the information that isnt allready going to happen, at this point you realise that everything is totally pointless, then you realise that this thought is yet again simply a result of cause and effect, eventually your brain will explode... however this event was again 'fated' so what have we really learned?

Ill tell you what we have learned, dont do crack

Fair enough, that would rely on a number of things... the human soul? god? quantum physics?

Well the closest we are gonna get is through quantum physics unless god comes down to earth and announces that he is infact real....

If there is no god, and we get passed the current barrier that exists within quantum physics (im reffering to quarks, and the multiple possible state bullcrap) Then it could well be the case that all human thought is as much cause and effect as knocking over dominoes.... In this case then humans arent actually self aware (for example an artificial intelligence on a computer would have to have knowledge of the context within which it exists, eg knowing it is a computer and its thoughts are code) to be considered self aware) err what im saying is this sortof creates a paradox, if this was the case, and we were not truly free thinking then by realising this, you would also realise that it is cause and effect which led to you realising this, and from the moment time began you were going to realise it, you would also realise that this thought was not truly your own, but a result of all passed experience and external stimuli, furthermore you would realise that nothing can be done with the information that isnt allready going to happen, at this point you realise that everything is totally pointless, then you realise that this thought is yet again simply a result of cause and effect, eventually your brain will explode... however this event was again 'fated' so what have we really learned?

Ill tell you what we have learned, dont do crack
This is your brain.. this is your brain doing philosophy *sizzle*. (That was a good commercial.)

I think of the mind as entirely abstract, as is the soul, so naturally exempt from physical forces; yet at the same time subject to changes in the body, like mind-altering chemicals, because of what it is an abstract of: the workings of the brain. Re the soul, I think of it as a part of the whole mind, as an abstract of the physical emotions, and all our folklore about the soul supports this idea. The soul is stirred by poetry and music, by beauty and romance. Since the mind is consciousness, and hence aware and active, it gets all the attention. The soul is "mindless" and responsive. There've been some pretty odd ideas about souls put forth over the millennia, but the oddest, I think, is the one that concretizes the abstract soul into some sort of energy, which would of course then make it a part of nature. I don't believe in ghosts.

It would perhaps be prudent here to make the distinction between the natural (the phyisical universe) and the supernatural (the world inside us, that includes imagination). Although the supernatural is a product of us and hence of nature, the distinction is made to allow us to talk about things like this. I don't believe in a supernatural that exists apart from our minds and souls, in the physical world. There are no ghosts but our living spirits. There is no god "out there", he (it) is "in here," in the infinite potential that is our mind/heart/soul. This belief will sustain me, until such a time as I meet a ghost or god. ;)

I don't discount the possibility that someday we could discover that we are not the originator of our own thoughts, but I just don't see the use in that. It's just impractical, and hence I doubt it will ever be "the truth." Nature is nothing if not practical.

but we can hypothethise the issue of free will while disregarding the soul.... Simply for practical reasons... In the end it may all be wrong, but the question is more a case of

'if' given (a) then what is (b) if (b) is dependant on (a)

since we cannot determine (a) if both (a) and (b) are interconnected AND unknown

we must use theoretical lisence otherwise we would never get anywhere.

Anyhow, since ive absolutely torched this thread ive made another thread discussing free-will vs determinism specifically :)

but we can hypothethise the issue of free will while disregarding the soul.... Simply for practical reasons... In the end it may all be wrong, but the question is more a case of

'if' given (a) then what is (b) if (b) is dependant on (a)

since we cannot determine (a) if both (a) and (b) are interconnected AND unknown

we must use theoretical lisence otherwise we would never get anywhere.

Anyhow, since ive absolutely torched this thread ive made another thread discussing free-will vs determinism specifically :)
Always a fun topic. :)