NationStates Jolt Archive

For those of you who are clueless or those of you who aren't, here's a place where we can discuss the progress of the British General election.

Here's what I think will happen:

Lib Dems will feast on anti-War feeling, and take some marginal labour seats. Around 20, I suppose. The Tories will win back their old seats, and do well in their traditional heartlands like the South East and other affluent areas but they won't win the election. Labour will win, but Blair has lost his appeal and their majority will be cut quite severely. Expect something of a lame-duck parliament as Blair retires, Brown takes the Primuship, and the Tories sweep in next time on a wave of anti-Socialist feeling as Brown takes the party back along the Old Roads.

I think that the Lib Dems will make good gains from last (at least 10), I don't think there will be much movement otherwise, except an other drop in turn out.

...and the Tories sweep in next time on a wave of anti-Socialist feeling as Brown takes the party back along the Old Roads.
my god i hope that doesn't happen :eek:

i'll be voting Lib Dem i think - i'm still torn between them and Labour, but i think its time people started voting LD. hopefully they can get to Official Opposition in 5 years time :)

I'm left wing, so I'm voting Lib Dem.

I'll be voting Labour. Eight years on since 1997, but we still have to vote "anyone but a Tory". Voting Lib Dem in Labour marginals will help Tory MPs get in. Lib Dem voting should be resigned to Tory held seats where the Lib Dems are second, or those "decapitation" seats. Otherwise vote Labour, becuase it is a choice of Blair/Brown or Howard. I know who I would prefer.

Lib Dems will feast on anti-War feeling, and take some marginal labour seats. Around 20, I suppose. The Tories will win back their old seats, and do well in their traditional heartlands like the South East and other affluent areas but they won't win the election. Labour will win, but Blair has lost his appeal and their majority will be cut quite severely. Expect something of a lame-duck parliament as Blair retires, Brown takes the Primuship, and the Tories sweep in next time on a wave of anti-Socialist feeling as Brown takes the party back along the Old Roads.

Here's what I think will happen. The Lib Dems will make gains due to the anti-war feeling, but not enough to win many seats. Rather they will take votes from Labour. The Tories will make slight gains with their reactionary, populist propaganda policies. This means the Tories will steal many seats where the war splits the left wing vote between the Lib Dems and Labour. The Tories will also gain in their old seats, which they lost in 1997 and may win some of them back. Labour will hopefully win, but the Tories might get in through the back door if the Lib Dems are successful enough.
Then I expect Blair to stand down quite soon after the election (a new deal has undoubtably been done, Labour needs Brown - just look at his role in their campaign now opposed to Blair/Milburn). Brown will take over, but won't take Labour back down the "Old Roads". He'll go left, but not a huge amount. Expect a strengthening of the welfare state but continuation of equality of oppurtunity, not outcome.
As for 2009/10 who knows, hopefully another Labour term will continue to take Britain to the left under a new leader (or even under Brown...).
The Tories, if they lose this election, may not ever come back. Without their inordinate funding they would have died after 2001.

I'll be voting Labour. Eight years on since 1997, but we still have to vote "anyone but a Tory". Voting Lib Dem in Labour marginals will help Tory MPs get in. Lib Dem voting should be resigned to Tory held seats where the Lib Dems are second, or those "decapitation" seats. Otherwise vote Labour, becuase it is a choice of Blair/Brown or Howard. I know who I would prefer.

Howard? I hate them all...I think the leaders are all very weak. I think that Tory government was a necessity after Callaghan's government, and may be for social reasons next time around. PC and other absurd things are on the rise and only the tories will stop it.

I wish the monster raving looney party were still about.

Howard? I hate them all...I think the leaders are all very weak. I think that Tory government was a necessity after Callaghan's government, and may be for social reasons next time around. PC and other absurd things are on the rise and only the tories will stop it.

Howard's Britain is a truly frightening prospect. Crippling the NHS which the very rich get richer and can afford decent healthcare. Poverty as the welfare state is destroyed. Unemployemnt soaring while wages are slashed, decrease in benefits. A perpetual fear of the "immigrant/terrorist" who will invade Britain in "floods" unless we spend all our money on border defense to keep the evil "foreigners" out. Meanwhile all out money is paid into multi-nationals which the government keeps sweet while screwing over our own worders. In other words the very worst aspects of Thatcher's Britain, plus the worse parts of the far right. Not a nice concept.

I fail to see how PC is "nonsense". Surely making sure we don't insult other people is a good thing? Or would you prefer if you were allowed to call the British Citizens deemed as "foreign" due to their background terms which in the past have not led to good ethnic relations. The Tories will only do one thing, and that is ruin Britain again.

I'll be voting Lib Dem, as with nearly every house in my local area it seems from the number of 'vote lib dem' posters up in windows. It seems that Labour has the ace of the economy, so if lib dem werent there i would vote labour. I could never vote tory. Michael Howard is scary, and not just in his policies on asylum and immigration.

there ain't that much between howard and blair.

the lib dems don't have coherent policies let alone a chance at government.

my predicition for what it's worth is that labour will coast back in with a majority of under 100. the lib dems will make gains, but not enough to be real contenders for main opposition. brown will swing left a bit, but not much, and give up on blair's insane fantasies of being the heart of europe, or joining the euro. howard will be a reasonably successful leader of a reinvigorated opposition, then step down for someone more central who will bring the tories back in as a perfectly reasonable govt in 2009/10

I'll do what hundreds of other people will do....... Splash the ballot paper!!

Personaly, there isn't a big party that I like or a little one. In fact I hate most of them. So I'll put a big line through all of them.. SPLASHED!!

Legally they have to count splashed papers so it won't go un-noticed.

If I was tortured and made to choose a party it would have to be labour.... but only i were to be tortured that is.

reckon my area will go from narrowly labour to narrowly lib dem, with labour slipping to third. our tory candidate seems relatively sane.

there ain't that much between howard and blair.

the lib dems don't have coherent policies let alone a chance at government.

my predicition for what it's worth is that labour will coast back in with a majority of under 100. the lib dems will make gains, but not enough to be real contenders for main opposition. brown will swing left a bit, but not much, and give up on blair's insane fantasies of being the heart of europe, or joining the euro. howard will be a reasonably successful leader of a reinvigorated opposition, then step down for someone more central who will bring the tories back in as a perfectly reasonable govt in 2009/10
Basically, that's what I thought :)

i think i'm with stevid on how to vote tho.

i think i'm with stevid on how to vote tho.

Trust me mate, splashing the paper makes you feel good, because you know who's side your on...... your side and no one elses.

Basically, if you don't like any of the policies brought before you or you just can't be bothered to give any party the satisfaction of getting your vote, Splash it.

It counts!

I would vote Labour if I were voting age, simply because the other parties sums DON'T add up.

Having said that, I think it will be a close run thing. Labour have had a decline in popularity since the last General Election, and Lib Dem are gaining more support. The Conservatives are just not all there, so I think Labour will win, by a very small majority, and then lose next time. The collapse of Rover and The mess-up in Iraq are going to be tough sticking points though, but I somehow doubt any other political party would have done differently

I'm using one of my votes to vote Lib-dems (for Tink) and the other for the greens.

The polls so far indicate that Labour will win.

seeing as i cant vote for Labour, the Conservatives or the Lib Dems (and therefore have absolutely no say in who takes up government...ah democracy), ill have to go with the DUP or the UUP

Saturday April 16, 08:03 PM

Labour heading for victory - polls

Labour is heading for a third General Election victory, according to a clutch of recently-published polls.

But the projected margin of Tony Blair's victory varied as pollsters put his lead over the Tories at anywhere between one and 10%.

According to a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, Michael Howard has narrowed the gap to just a single point, with Labour on 36%, the Tories on 35% and the Liberal Democrats on 23%.

If repeated on May 5, this would give Tony Blair a majority of nearly 60 seats.

An ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph found Mr Blair was heading for another landslide victory and a majority of 158. That survey puts Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 30% and the Lib Dems on 22%.

If that result was repeated in the election, shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin, shadow home secretary David Davis and shadow education secretary Tim Collins would all lose their seats to the Liberal Democrats, the paper said.

The Conservatives would win just one seat from Labour and end up with 155 MPs, 10 fewer than in 2001.

An ICM poll for the News of the World of key marginal seats also found Labour on course for a landslide victory, this time with a majority of 152 MPs.

That poll found that the swing to the Conservatives in 93 constituencies where they were run a close second by Labour in 2001 was only 1%.

Meanwhile, a poll for the Independent on Sunday found Labour's lead would double if Gordon Brown became leader. Asked who they intend to vote for, 40% said Labour, 34% Conservative and 20% Lib Dem.

But asked how they would vote if the Chancellor took over from Mr Blair, support for Labour rose to 45%, the Tories fell three points to 31% and the Lib Dems dropped four to 16%.

Saturday April 16, 08:03 PM

Labour heading for victory - polls

Labour is heading for a third General Election victory, according to a clutch of recently-published polls.

But the projected margin of Tony Blair's victory varied as pollsters put his lead over the Tories at anywhere between one and 10%.

According to a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, Michael Howard has narrowed the gap to just a single point, with Labour on 36%, the Tories on 35% and the Liberal Democrats on 23%.

If repeated on May 5, this would give Tony Blair a majority of nearly 60 seats.

An ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph found Mr Blair was heading for another landslide victory and a majority of 158. That survey puts Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 30% and the Lib Dems on 22%.

If that result was repeated in the election, shadow Chancellor Oliver Letwin, shadow home secretary David Davis and shadow education secretary Tim Collins would all lose their seats to the Liberal Democrats, the paper said.

The Conservatives would win just one seat from Labour and end up with 155 MPs, 10 fewer than in 2001.

An ICM poll for the News of the World of key marginal seats also found Labour on course for a landslide victory, this time with a majority of 152 MPs.

That poll found that the swing to the Conservatives in 93 constituencies where they were run a close second by Labour in 2001 was only 1%.

Meanwhile, a poll for the Independent on Sunday found Labour's lead would double if Gordon Brown became leader. Asked who they intend to vote for, 40% said Labour, 34% Conservative and 20% Lib Dem.

But asked how they would vote if the Chancellor took over from Mr Blair, support for Labour rose to 45%, the Tories fell three points to 31% and the Lib Dems dropped four to 16%.

I don't think it will be that much of a landslide, Blair certainly won't WIN any seats. It's a question of how many he'll lose. Never believe everything the papers say...and the News of the World is hardly a credible paper. The Independent is very Anti-Tory. I think that, personally, the 1-5% lead on the part of Labour is the most realistic estimate.

I wish the monster raving looney party were still about.

It still is, go to www.omrlp.com (http://omrlp.com)

In other words the very worst aspects of Thatcher's Britain, plus the worse parts of the far right.

Now that what I would like to see, I don't know why everyone hate thatcher. I took a political test and i was exactly the same as her on it. and in your opinion "the worst parts of the far right", you must mean the BNP i suppose, well they're my second favourite party. so i would like to see that happen.

Howard's Britain is a truly frightening prospect. Crippling the NHS which the very rich get richer and can afford decent healthcare. Poverty as the welfare state is destroyed. Unemployemnt soaring while wages are slashed, decrease in benefits. A perpetual fear of the "immigrant/terrorist" who will invade Britain in "floods" unless we spend all our money on border defense to keep the evil "foreigners" out. Meanwhile all out money is paid into multi-nationals which the government keeps sweet while screwing over our own worders. In other words the very worst aspects of Thatcher's Britain, plus the worse parts of the far right. Not a nice concept.

I fail to see how PC is "nonsense". Surely making sure we don't insult other people is a good thing? Or would you prefer if you were allowed to call the British Citizens deemed as "foreign" due to their background terms which in the past have not led to good ethnic relations. The Tories will only do one thing, and that is ruin Britain again.
i'm with you 100% on this one :)
just a little less aggressive ;)

My personal feelings:
Labour will win
Green are a bunch of hypocritical dicks
Lib-Dems will be close, but won't win - I'm voting out of protest here against Labour
The little parties are basically all fascists.
Sorry if that's a little too blunt.

I wish the monster raving looney party were still about.
Totally, me too dude. I know who I'd vote for if they were:

On that note, I wonder what they'd do if they got into power?
Probably run away!

IT'S IMPORTANT YOU READ THIS

Voting Liberal Democrat is actually a completely wasted vote, in order for them to actually get a one seat majority will require a huge uniform swing of between 25% and 35%, which as it stands would mean that the Liberals would need around 51 - 55 % of the vote nationally. This is all due to the bias in our election system, called Single Member Plurality or more commonly known as First Past The Post. Considering the fact that no party, not even Blair in the 1997 election, since 1946 has recieved 50% of the vote. Also consider the fact that there is a Conservative core of Britain that makes up around 30% of the population and a similar core support of 30% of Labour, it looks incredibly unlikely that the Liberal Democrats will be forming the official opposition in 5 years or even 55 years. Uniform swings, meaning a swing in every constituency of 30% is unheard of. ON average, the Liberals will have to be at least 25 percentage points ahead of the leading party. If the Liberals won the 1997 election for instance, they'd have needed around 66% of the vote. Even on the poll on this forum where the Liberals are ahead by 20%, they still wouldn't be able to for a majority Government. It's a wasted vote for the liberals in other words.