NationStates Jolt Archive

China is as everyone knows growing in every direction. The PLA is rapidly becoming more and more modern; the space program is closing the gap between China and Russia, USA; the economy is growing at a great rate; etc.

I wonder when China will become as strong as or ever exceed that of modern day USA. With the US national debt growing and the economy is moving towards a new depression, one wonder what will be the outcome. New US isolation? Whatever happens, I believe it will be the point in history when the Chinese Dragon surpassed the American Eagle and took its place as the new superpower.

I give them 20-30 years. How about you?

Its estimated that the Chinese economy will surpass the American one; I think it was, in 2015 and be one-third bigger in 2050.

India is also rising.

But it really depends the way globalization goes; there are certain labor and social conflicts that globalization is creating that analyists are looking over; my bet is that it is going to create revolutionary anti-capitalist movements...wait it already has...the EZLN in Mexico and Chavez in Venezeula. More to come from South America though.

I never heard it being speculated to happen that soon. Hmmm...

I wonder when the PLA will be stonger than the US armed forces. Imagine a Chinese first class navy and airforce. Plus their own high-tech tanks and huge army. Watch your step, Taiwan.

Maybe India and China will form a new bloc that will ultimately challenge the West in both economic and military strength. I still think that even though the Chinese economy will surpass that of the US and western Europe there are several more things to be done at the home front. Like improving the life of farmers and the poor. China's poor are suffering because of the capitlizationing, just like in eastern europe after the fall of communism. Before a business didn't need profit to be run, now you're screwed if you don't make enough money!

I hope China will be respected as a superpower and will use its strength wisely. I don't think they would go on a mad killing spree, trying to conquer the world. They are not "evil little yellow reds", as some might think. I wish them good luck. May they grow wealthy and strong, while we grow poor and weak. In western europe it started 80 years ago.

China is as everyone knows growing in every direction. The PLA is rapidly becoming more and more modern; the space program is closing the gap between China and Russia, USA; the economy is growing at a great rate; etc.

I wonder when China will become as strong as or ever exceed that of modern day USA. With the US national debt growing and the economy is moving towards a new depression, one wonder what will be the outcome. New US isolation? Whatever happens, I believe it will be the point in history when the Chinese Dragon surpassed the American Eagle and took its place as the new superpower.

I give them 20-30 years. How about you?

Depends on when and how bad the economic situation will be there when the "bubble" bursts. (For those of you who don't know what that means..basically the economy is growing WAY too fast and eventually will fall back on itself). If it's bad, then the economy will even out and grow at a normal rate afterwards, most likely. It also depends on whether China will ever give in to international pressure and adopt adaquate wage laws..if they do, their economy may also even out.

The quality of Chinese hardware is terrible. If, and who knows they might become a military superpower, and the expansionist arc continues then they need better manufacturing. The manage to steal all the right info but can't put it to use (yet?).

China is as everyone knows growing in every direction. The PLA is rapidly becoming more and more modern; the space program is closing the gap between China and Russia, USA; the economy is growing at a great rate; etc.

I wonder when China will become as strong as or ever exceed that of modern day USA. With the US national debt growing and the economy is moving towards a new depression, one wonder what will be the outcome. New US isolation? Whatever happens, I believe it will be the point in history when the Chinese Dragon surpassed the American Eagle and took its place as the new superpower.

I give them 20-30 years. How about you?


China is already a Superpower- what it lacks at the moment, is being the Superpower- that is, they already have the quantity, and near-parity in quality, to swamp any nation (including the U.S.) in a fight over Asia. What they lack, is the ability to deliver that force across the Pacific. With the modernization of the Chinese Naval forces (In progress...) and the assistance of American and European Aerospace and Technology firms, (Facilitated by more than a decade-and-a-half of Executive and Legislative corruption in D.C.) China will be able to topple the U.S. in around 10-15 years using only military force.

That's "Conquer" my boys, not just "Hurt".

China has a 1.2 billion people. It's really hard to kill 1.2 billion people.

They'll be a super power in less than 50 year.

china will never have the capability of toppling the united states, any action it takes would have to be aggreed to by all of russia India and japan, any two of these nations are suficiently powerful and in the right position to stop china dead in its tracks. for all of the power it looks like it has stragically any agressive war launched by china is doomed before it even started. in resources all CXhina has is people and rice and its position is very poor, japan to the east, india to the west, russia to the north and japan and idia to the south even if china was to first attempt to conquer one of these obstacles, the the other two (plus other nations even) would have an easy shot at China's underprotected underside, a straight thrust, and here chinese culture is against it too, even with the advent of the communist revolution the Chinese people still subconsiously subscribe to divine right, the minute the war turned even mildly against china the communist government would have to quell a rebelion comprising of an un ignorable percentage of the human population. so while theoretically China could gain the power to topple america, in a realistic sense it could never really happen

Heh. It could destroy us already, economically. All else is meaningless if you can send someone (the USA) back to the economic dark ages with a swipe of a pen.

All they have to do is quit shipping goods to the US, or most any country. Hard to be a power when you have nothing to buy. Want to try to disagree?

China's economy will surpass America's in the next ten years. Military primacy will follow. What will be interesting is watching America try to stop it. Interesting, until I get hit in the crossfire.

Not going to happen. Economic collapse is going to happen very soon unless there are drastic changes in the Chinese economy. For example, they're going to have to ban cars. There simply isn't enough ore to go around to provide the same level of metalwork and industrialisation per head as Western nations. It's either that or they're going to have to move out and mine some asteroids or something. There is also limited natural resources, and with the population rapidly moving up the ladder of wealth, more and more demand is going to be created, with limited supplies, this is bad.

It will take a time.

China might have a higher GDP than the US in 20-30 years, but with GDP/capita we'll have to wait about 100 years, if China's economy continues to grow with 8% annually, and the US with 0% annually and the population of China decreases after 2050.

They might start military adventures, like war with Taiwan, much earlier, say 2009.

Heh. It could destroy us already, economically. All else is meaningless if you can send someone (the USA) back to the economic dark ages with a swipe of a pen.

All they have to do is quit shipping goods to the US, or most any country. Hard to be a power when you have nothing to buy. Want to try to disagree?

Yes I disagree. Economics is not a zero sum game. America loses, China loses. It is in China's best interest to keep America buying. You can't sell when there is no one to buy.

If China calls in the Dollar (of which they are a gigantic owner of) they smash their own economy in the process. America's poor spending is the alcohol that keeps the world running. When we dry up the world is going to be in for one hell of a hangover.

It's really hard to kill 1.2 billion people.




No, it's not.

If China continues to discard AIDS as a disease of foreigners, China's whole population might be infected in less than 20 years at the current rate of infection.

Then there is tuberculosis and influenca as well as a shortage of doctors in rural areas, coupled with increasing environmental damage, like toxic rivers.

China's military technology has a LONG way to go. They're buying whatever anyone will sell them because they can't make anything decent on their own, and they're not finding many sellers. The Chinese have begun the rollout of a blue water navy which is basically a poor-man's US navy. They're attempting to copy many of the same capabilities, but their brand-new guided missile destroyers, for instance, fall well short of the Arleigh-Burke class destroyers that they are emulating. They can't even figure out what they're doing about an air force.

The Korean War showed the Chinese that a large but poorly equipped army doesn't match up in the field well with a modern Western army. They're working on it, but they need help. More importantly, they need funds, and that just isn't going to happen until they ditch socialism once and for all.

Not going to happen. Economic collapse is going to happen very soon unless there are drastic changes in the Chinese economy. For example, they're going to have to ban cars. There simply isn't enough ore to go around to provide the same level of metalwork and industrialisation per head as Western nations. It's either that or they're going to have to move out and mine some asteroids or something. There is also limited natural resources, and with the population rapidly moving up the ladder of wealth, more and more demand is going to be created, with limited supplies, this is bad.

China is more than a century away from that particular scenario. IMO. Besides, where there is a need there is a answer. Mining asteroids might just be the answer.

Let's pray to God it never happens. 'Nuff said.

Not going to happen. Economic collapse is going to happen very soon unless there are drastic changes in the Chinese economy. For example, they're going to have to ban cars. There simply isn't enough ore to go around to provide the same level of metalwork and industrialisation per head as Western nations. It's either that or they're going to have to move out and mine some asteroids or something. There is also limited natural resources, and with the population rapidly moving up the ladder of wealth, more and more demand is going to be created, with limited supplies, this is bad.
That sounds about right. THe Chinese infrastructure can't nearly support modern lifestyles for 1.3 billion people (all the glamorous, glitzy growth in China you see in the media is confined to narrow strips along the coast; people in the hinterlands live in destitute poverty). Resource shortages will definitely limit such a massive country, and there are already energy problems due to fuel shortages and the primitive state of utilities infrastructure. I was in China last summer and none of the cities were lit up at night because there simply was not enough electricity. People might point to the Three Gorges Dam as some sort of cure all, but besides the dam being built on unsuitable, silty water only to fulfill the layman whim of venerable Sun Yat Sen and over the strenuous opposition of scientists, the dam has cracks due to subpar construction that escaped detection due to bribery.

If China wants to become a first rate power, it would need to struggle against tremendous resource shortages, peasant dissatisfaction, and an obscenely corrupt and unjust government/bureaucracy. Hundreds of millions of peasants are disgruntled with the corrupt so-called "communist" government that has sold out labor for mafia capitalism, and with such instability in the country, China would not dare risk internal strife with a costly long range offensive war.

until they ditch socialism once and for all. They already have, right now China is experimenting with a pretty raw form of capitalism, with almost no workers rights, the non-existence of unions and minimum wage as well as the complete dismantling of state-owned business. The agenda in China has now largely shifted from one of cohesive compliance with the state, to fend-for-yourself style profit motivation.

I will concede that the government is a problem of course, being massive, oppresive, corrupt and a hideous mass of beaurocratic nonsense.

China's military technology has a LONG way to go. They're buying whatever anyone will sell them because they can't make anything decent on their own, and they're not finding many sellers. The Chinese have begun the rollout of a blue water navy which is basically a poor-man's US navy. They're attempting to copy many of the same capabilities, but their brand-new guided missile destroyers, for instance, fall well short of the Arleigh-Burke class destroyers that they are emulating. They can't even figure out what they're doing about an air force.

The Korean War showed the Chinese that a large but poorly equipped army doesn't match up in the field well with a modern Western army. They're working on it, but they need help.

I agree China has a long long way to go before parity with the West, militarily and economicaly, but it would be unfair to compare the Korean War with today. That would be like saying the US army is horrid because of the Vietnam War. Back in Korea the South Koreans had the worst army of all, but today they have a modern and balanced force. A lot can happen in 50 years, and China has definitely improved its army just like the US and South Korea. But I don;t think China will soon reach the capability of conducting long range offensive wars.


More importantly, they need funds, and that just isn't going to happen until they ditch socialism once and for all.
Actually, the US is far more socialistic than China. It's a ruthless and free market there. The Chiinese government is getting richer, but a huge proportion of the newfound wealth is lost to corruption.

China's economy as a whole is not a "bubble". It is growing at a reasonable rate for a rapidly industralizing nation. Back in the 60's Japan's economy grew at 10% per year and South Korea's economy grew at 10 to 15% in the 70's and 80's.
Once its economy reaches a certain maturity point it will slow down and when it is developed and industralized it will grow at a normal 1% to 3%.

I agree China has a long long way to go before parity with the West, militarily and economicaly, but it would be unfair to compare the Korean War with today. That would be like saying the US army is horrid because of the Vietnam War. Back in Korea the South Koreans had the worst army of all, but today they have a modern and balanced force. A lot can happen in 50 years, and China has definitely improved its army just like the US and South Korea. But I don;t think China will soon reach the capability of conducting long range offensive wars.

I was simply pointing out the parallels, because they still exist today. In Korea the US went in with state-of-the-art (for the time) technologies and weapons, and the Chinese poured in with a large but poorly-equipped army. If the US and China both deployed forces to the same region again, that dichotomy would still exist. By contrast, US forces have adapted quite a bit as a result of experiences in Vietnam.

Actually, the US is far more socialistic than China. It's a ruthless and free market there. The Chiinese government is getting richer, but a huge proportion of the newfound wealth is lost to corruption.

Then I mean to say they need to do away with fascism, for, while they may have freed the market, they still enjoy the oppression characteristic of a communist nation.

Though personally, I'm not yet convinced of this radical transformation of the Chinese economic model. They have allowed Hong Kong to continue as before (which always operated on the bleeding edge of free market principles, so laissez-faire under Britain that it could be called lazy-faire), but that doesn't mean Beijing has sold off its nationalized industries to private investors.

Hell... where would China get investors?

I agree with the assessments of all the "China has too many obstacles to overcome" replies.

But I think the biggest obstacle is their own government. Resources can be stolen, a government...wel duh.

The scenerio China could become a super-power is if the US is to keep its current deficit over a few years. When China becomes a Super Power, they won't be THE super power. They will have India, Japan, the EU, Russia, and GCC to deal with, also the US won't die suddenly, they'll be like a fuck'n T-rex falling down. They have a chance to smash you in the process.

Though personally, I'm not yet convinced of this radical transformation of the Chinese economic model. They have allowed Hong Kong to continue as before (which always operated on the bleeding edge of free market principles, so laissez-faire under Britain that it could be called lazy-faire),
China has been trying to reproduce Hong Kong's capitalism since the late 1970s when the first capitalist reforms in the mainland occurred. However, China today is an even more dog-eat-dog place than Hong Kong ever was. In Hong Kong there was at least legal justice and low governmental corruption. Wanton abuse of labor was also uncommon. In China laborers are callously and openly exploited in the mainland. In fact, Hong Kong has slowly lost its manufacturing base because labor costs are cheaper in China and most Hong Kong factories have moved into the Wild South, Guangzhou province. Hong Kong is nowadays service dominated and the economy is a bit sluggish.

but that doesn't mean Beijing has sold off its nationalized industries to private investors.
The nationalized industry is one sector of the economy (along with the banks) that are still apparently socialistic. But in practice, national industry in China is less regulated than private industry in the USA. A few years ago Premier Zhu Rongji announced that the government will gradually cut off all economic relations and do away with subsidies for the huge public steel mills and such. This would be a transition from central planning to capitalism, and national industry would need to find free market sources of investment. Nowadays the state owned factories have abolished the minimum wage, abolished job security, and abolished pensions. Workers regularly get fired at will from a job they've held for 30 years... the fabled communist "iron rice bowl" is no longer. THis has caused some major social trouble in the Northeast because this unbridled free market has hurt the millions of people, and we've yet to see if it will work out in the long run before a peasant rebellion breaks out.

Hell... where would China get investors?

Foreigners is the biggest big source of money. China has been the world's largest recipient of private foreign investment in the past few years. Corporations all over the world would rather build their factories in China because back in their home countries in Europe and the US there are restrictive labor laws, health regulations, environmental regulations, and such that increase labor costs. There is none of this in China. Chinese workers are paid shit, have no benefits or pensions, and environmental abuse is the norm. Corporations save billions by employing laborers in China rather than laborers in a developed country. The fatal coal mine collapse has become a cliche in china, it seems every week a few hundred pitiable people die because they were working in a poorly constructed coal mine that collapses, with no emergency equipment in sight.

have no idea, but it won't happen overnight...

Heh. It could destroy us already, economically. All else is meaningless if you can send someone (the USA) back to the economic dark ages with a swipe of a pen.

All they have to do is quit shipping goods to the US, or most any country. Hard to be a power when you have nothing to buy. Want to try to disagree?
china has nothing we can't buy elsewhere, anything they produce that we buy could be produced in Taiwan, Japan, Russia, Korea, India, Indonesia, and many eastern european countries. We only do buisness with china because its convenient to do it all with one country, If china stopped selling to america then the countries I mentioned and probably countless others would be happy to step in over night to take up the slack

Not for a while. My reasoning?

China does not have the capability for global military force projection, beyond its limited number of ICBMs. China lacks any aircraft carriers, or any real navy. And to build a sufficient number of carriers and a navy to reach the top, espescially now, would take a long, long time. Perhaps thirty-forty years. China will not be a global superpower until it's navy is similar in size and capability to that of the US.

China's goals currently seem to be much different from that of becoming a global superpower. Instead they seem more intent on becoming a regional hegemon. Something the Japanese would not take kindly to, nor the Taiwanese. I'd suspect that the Vietnamese would resist Chinese advances just as thoroughly as they resisted the US. Beyond that, the US still maintains several key strategic bases in the area, we've still got troops in Japan, Guam, Wake Island, the Phillipines and the ROK.

No, China has a lot more work to do to become a global military superpower. If they were to do anything to challenge US superpowerdom, it would not result in the US being replaced by China, but by China playing the spoiler and weakening the US, namely if they were to sell off the part of the US debt they own.

china has nothing we can't buy elsewhere, anything they produce that we buy could be produced in Taiwan, Japan, Russia, Korea, India, Indonesia, and many eastern european countries. We only do buisness with china because its convenient to do it all with one country, If china stopped selling to america then the countries I mentioned and probably countless others would be happy to step in over night to take up the slack
Places I'd much rather see our goods produced in anyways.

China is more than a century away from that particular scenario. IMO. Besides, where there is a need there is a answer. Mining asteroids might just be the answer.
I'd say a bigger concern would be Chinese oil consumption. One of the things the US must do is get away from the oil economy as fast as we can. If we can do that, we'll be far better off.