NationStates Jolt Archive

Well will it?

No, but even if it did, the bureaucracy would remain intact. Always has.

No, but even if it did, the bureaucracy would remain intact. Always has.
that could be said for any country...

AFAIK the Communist Party is still well respected in China and even if this changes in the future it is likely to adapt. Communism has already been adapted to allow individual capitalism so it is likely to adapt again if the need was pressing enough. There may be problems of poverty for peasants, lack of welfare, few university places etc. but these will eventually be addressed.

I doubt the state would slide into democracy easily, especially not with Hu Jin Tao as Premier (or President or whatever) because he seems to be cracking down on the prodemocracy movement. The almost total ignoring of the death of Zhao zi yang by the state recently suggests China is a long way from becoming democratic.

Oh I forgot to mention that I believe that China's Communist party will continue to evolve and adapt. Just look at what happened after Mao's death! I don't see any hope of a democracy there, well not at least for a long time, well beyond our lifetimes.

China's Capitalist-- err, um 'Communist' party will be alive and kicking for a very very long time. Precisely because they're willing to adapt so much that they're Communists virtually in name only.

that could be said for any country...

*sighs*

...but China's bureaucracy is legendary, even among bureaucracies. It was a joke.

Never mind.

*sighs*

...but China's bureaucracy is legendary, even among bureaucracies. It was a joke.

Never mind.
oh... i guess bureaucracy jokes are just not my thing...

The bureauocracy in China is way too annoying to be funny.

I predict peaceful transition democracy in 30 to 40 years... the communist party is not popular in the countryside and heavy industry where most of the people work and live. The capitalist reforms in the past decades have alienated hundreds of millions of citizens because they create vast economic inequality, between the coast and the inland, and between the white collar middle class and lower classes. The elimination of universal health care and pensions have hurt the CCP's standing among factory workers and farmers from the liquidated collective farms. While the coast is getting richer, most inland provinces see their quality of life slipping, and many parts of the country are becoming wastelands due to bad environmental and economic policies. The government is also legendary for its corruption and overcentralization, and people are getting pissed off. There are thousands of protests in china every year against corruption and governmental incompetence. The government must be extremely flexible to these new challenges, and a one party state will not do the trick. There is no choice in the long run but to reform. People have economic freedoms, now they are demanding political freedoms.

Oh I forgot to mention that I believe that China's Communist party will continue to evolve and adapt. Just look at what happened after Mao's death! I don't see any hope of a democracy there, well not at least for a long time, well beyond our lifetimes.
The hope lies in their beginning to adopt Capitalistic ideals to their Economy. Communism and Capitalism cannot survive together long before Capitalism begins to point out the shortcomings of Communism...

It will hopefully be more of a natural evolution of the Governing System, but that may be an optimistic outlook.

Regards,
Gaar

China will not be changed by a foreign power. Firstly because it is too large. Secondly because China, which is heavily investing in companies in the USA and UK, is keeping western economies intact.

The only hope of change, as I see it, would be a peasant uprising. But I seriously doubt this will ever happen, not so soon after the Tiananmen Square Protest. China will continue to develop into a system where the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.

It's sad actually, communism is a great idea in principal.

I predict democracy in 30 to 40 years... the communist party is not popular in the countryside and heavy industry where most of the people work and live. The capitalist reforms in the past decades have alienated hundreds of millions of citizens because they create vast economic inequality, between the coast and the inland, and between the white collar middle class and lower classes. The elimination of universal health care and pensions have hurt the CCP's standing among factory workers and farmers from the liquidated collective farms. While the coast is getting richer, most inland provinces see their quality of life slipping, and many parts of the country are becoming wastelands due to bad environmental and economic policies. The government is also legendary for its corruption and overcentralization, and people are getting pissed off. There are thousands of protests in china every year against corruption and governmental incompetence. The government must be extremely flexible to these new challenges, and a one party state will not do the trick. There is no choice in the long run but to reform. People have economic freedoms, now they are demanding political freedoms.
I agree, though it may take longer than that. We have seen this current regime will do just about anything(Tiananmen square) to stay in power. They won't give up power so easily.

The last time all the peasants got seriously pissed off with the government the country became Communist. IMHO the drive for democracy is likely to come from the Middle classes because they don't have to spend every day just struggling to survive.

The last time all the peasants got seriously pissed off with the government the country became Communist. IMHO the drive for democracy is likely to come from the Middle classes because they don't have to spend every day just struggling to survive. I guess you missed the latest turn of events in the Soviet Union... I believe they call it Russia again now, and I am pretty sure they didn't become a Communistic Country they actually just got rid of one.

Regards,
Gaar

I agree, though it may take longer than that. We have seen this current regime will do just about anything(Tiananmen square) to stay in power. They won't give up power so easily.
Tiananmen Square was a minor incident... the demonstrators were mostly intellectuals and students - well to do people. It did not by any means represent a large scale democracy movement which in China would have to include the millions of lower class workers. Most ordinary Chinese back then accepted communist rule and did not relate to the Tiananmen square demonstrators, since back then there was still a large communist-run social security system which guaranteed health care and pensions for the poor. Now that the situation is completely different, the communists have alienated their rural and industrial supporters. If in the future a call for democracy is embraced by hundreds of millions of people not just in Beijing but throughout the country, then the party will not be able to resort to force, and will have to make concessions.

The last time all the peasants got seriously pissed off with the government the country became Communist. IMHO the drive for democracy is likely to come from the Middle classes because they don't have to spend every day just struggling to survive.
the middle classes right now are highly materialistic and care only for economic wealth... since times are good for them, they are fine with the government. and anyways, they have a lot to lose if they try to oppose the government. currently the CCP's main supporters are middle class and upper class. The lower classes have nothing to lose, their lives are not good in the new capitalist order, and they are especially angry at the government's corruption and injustices toward the poor. The law is owned by the rich in China, and poor people resent this mismanagement. eventually the huge problems in china can only be tackled by a multi party democracy that is responsive not only to the rich but also to the poor and the lower middle classes.

No, I think that the one party system in China will last a very long time. It won't stay forever, nothing does, but it will be around when I'm dead (then again my father said that about the cold war/Berlin wall). I think that the party may well become more democratic, with multiple choices within the one party like Mexico used to have, but I don't see another party emerging anytime soon, unless it's an enviromental group.

The last time all the peasants got seriously pissed off with the government the country became Communist. IMHO the drive for democracy is likely to come from the Middle classes because they don't have to spend every day just struggling to survive.

Yes thats true, revolutionary leaders, such as Marx, Lenin and Ernesto 'Che' Guevara came from middle class backgrounds. It will take the middle class to spark change, but the working class must make this change.

Yes thats true, revolutionary leaders, such as Marx, Lenin and Ernesto 'Che' Guevara came from middle class backgrounds. It will take the middle class to spark change, but the working class must make this change.
It will take maybe a few people from the middle class, due to their superior education and organizational skills, but it is unlikely a movement for reform in China would be by all of the middle class. Lenin and Che were opposed by their countries' middle classes... the spark for reform would come from individual intellectuals like these, not the middle class as a whole.

the middle classes right now are highly materialistic and care only for economic wealth... since times are good for them, they are fine with the government. and anyways, they have a lot to lose if they try to oppose the government. currently the CCP's main supporters are middle class and upper class. The lower classes have nothing to lose, their lives are not good in the new capitalist order, and they are especially angry at the government's corruption and injustices toward the poor. The law is owned by the rich in China, and poor people resent this mismanagement. eventually the huge problems in china can only be tackled by a multi party democracy that is responsive not only to the rich but also to the poor and the lower middle classes.

Agreed. A short while ago, the BBC carried out a 'China week' a week of programmes dedicated to exploring China.

What has been surmised from it from the snapshots gleaned, is that the middle class and Upper class in particular, have no interest in politics. They have widescreen TV's, DVD's, and all the other modern materalistic stuff.

The government, when challenged over democracy, say openly "People do not want democracy, as long as they have wealth." and certainly, the middle and upper classes, seem to agree.

China is materalistic and rabidly capitalistic to the extent that democracy does not matter for those who get wealthy out of the current rabid capitalist system. The children and teenagers get more material things as together with the rabid capitalist system, have no brothers or sisters to have their mothers and fathers spread their income upon, under the one child policy, which is an excellent idea to create a wealthy class of people who will not revolt against the system.

Not so the working class, urban and rural, with car workers unhappy over low wages, and the rural citizens not given any support and treated as second class citizens, although the rural citizens are allowed more than one child.

It's the working class who grow unhappy, and it's the working class who make China's economy what it is through mass man and womanpower at hand and low wages.

It's when this dissatisfaction reaches a mass organised scale that China will feel it.

As it is, China can afford to sack people who don't like their work conditions, and employ another just like that, especially when considering it's huge population.

Urantia II: I have not mentioned Russia or the USSR so I don't understand your point. The USSR collapsedd because the country was falling to pieces, conditions are bad in China but the economy is very strong so that isn't going to happen. I was referring to Mao using the support of the peasants to take over China in the Chinese civil war.

Antebellum South: I didn't mean the entire middle class. It will be a long time for change to happen because it will take a while for the middle classes to take note of politics rather than money. This said Hong Kong, one of the most capitalistic cities in China, has more pro democracy feelings than most of the rest of CHina so to say that the middle classes are entirely obsessed only with money isn't true either.

I think the problems facing the middle classes such as the almost impossible task of getting into university (something that is already driving some wealthy Chinese abroad) will stir them up before the number of people willing to work in bad conditions drops below what China needs for its economy. The country i powered by business so the people who control the businesses have more cloat(sp?) compared to the peasants and are likely to make the biggest change. One programme in China week focused on how poor peasants were happy moing to the cities to get jobs with little pay because it was better than at home (I'm thinking of the one about the waitress in the giant restaurant). I think this will continue for a while before a real peasant crisis develops.

(On a side note the lack of social support isn't exactly surprising when there is only like a 1% tax rate which people resent is it?)

china hasn't been a communism for a long time, so suggesting that people will see the short comings of communism and call for democracy is rediculous. also suggesting that one of these pitfalls is a class divide, the poor get poor and the rich get richer kinda idea is also rediculous since communism is meant to eliminate classes all together.

i think some of the people here really need to look in a few encyclepedia's and look up communism. note* try not to look at american sources, because they are usually bias on the subject.

and russia... or the ussr, collapsed because the government overspent year after year on the military, expecting an imminent war with the united states. not because communism is a flawed economy system.

but then this was all planned by america, to keep the atmosphere how it was, since they knew they could run at a loss and the ussr couldn't. (because of oil, which i can't be bothered to explain since my post is already big enough)

Antebellum South: I didn't mean the entire middle class. It will be a long time for change to happen because it will take a while for the middle classes to take note of politics rather than money. This said Hong Kong, one of the most capitalistic cities in China, has more pro democracy feelings than most of the rest of CHina so to say that the middle classes are entirely obsessed only with money isn't true either.
Hong Kong and China are almost two different countries, and most international economic organizations treat them as such just because they have such different social systems. People are not even allowed to travel freely between HK and other parts of China. There is absolute free speech in HK, there are differences in government and economics, and the middle class in HK is very very different from the middle class in the mainland.

Hong Kong's economy is mature and in recent years has been stagnant, so the middle class feels like times are getting worse. In China though, the middle class has just recently tasted wealth and there is no end in sight to the economic growth in this vast country. The Chinese government has been neglecting investment in HK in favor of investment in other parts of China (due to various cynical factors). This leads to the feeling that communist control of HK has harmed the city.

The only time that the middle class in other parts of China will start to talk about democracy and follow the lead of Hong Kong's middle class is when the economy slows down in China, which won't be any time soon, as China still has plenty of room, resources, and manpower for growth... unlike Hong Kong which can't grow much any more. Right now the mainland's red hot economy is a nice distraction for the Chinese middle class from any talk of reform or democracy.

(On a side note the lack of social support isn't exactly surprising when there is only like a 1% tax rate which people resent is it?)
It's more of a allocation thing, because China has tax rates about as high as American taxes. The top income earners in China are supposed to pay taxes of around 50% (although rich people easily evade taxes due to corruption). The government has a lot of cash, from taxes and foreign investments, but it is spent on privatization efforts (incentives, infrastructure, etc) and not on socialistic projects, for better or worse.

Serdica: I think you need to look at CHina rather than encyclopedias. China has adappted communism to suit itself and as such allows capitalism for individuals. It doesn't run on a communist economic model.

To make it lear what I'm arguing about in my other post I am saying that the middle classes will cause reform rather than start a revolution for democracy. I think reform will happen before any sort of mass movement for democracy because peasants (as they have done throughout history) just want to have a bit more money, land and be healthy. If they get those things then they will likely be appeased for quite a while until they start to go towards democratic leanings. China is a very patriotic country and the population knows the government is making it a strong figure on the international scene so they will continue to support it in the short term rather then campaign for democracy.

China's one-party system cannot continue for much longer, it will not evolve and reform enough to survive - it is too rigid for that. Right now they are crapping themselves because of the huge mounting opposition/resentment across the country and are prepared to do and say anything to maintain control - it is precisely because of this that ultimately they will collapse.

Protests against local Party officials are widespread in China but go largely unreported even by foreign media. When the locals get feisty, the Party gives in to their demands in order to restore peace and no Government can lead a country this way for long. The citizens are learning that when they want something changing, they just have to take to the streets and they will get it - what happens when the thing they want is something the Party cannot provide? Revolution my friends, that's what. It's coming within the next 10 years, probably sooner and it could be spectacular.

Trilateral Commission: I agree with most of what you say about HK. I would just like to reiterate that I don't think democracy will happen in China for a long time. I was under the impression that the Communists had camped down on the prodemocracy movement in HK in the last few years. I am not 100% on this so I am open to correction but AFAIK there isn't full freedom of speech there. There isn't even much freedom of spech on the internet in CHina thanks to the net police and Great Firewall.

Edit: Thanks Liuzhou, I wasn't aware of such widespread disruption. Is the disruption not about local things, however, because then it would take a while for this to unite around the country and cause a revolution. Is the government really that scared because it doesn't seem to have done much after the recent mining disasters etc. The biggest demonstration (fine it was a while ago) was by Falun Gong supporters with like 10,000 outside the government compound and that didn't seem to scare the government too much with all the persecution etc. so why do other action have more of an effect?

Trilateral Commission: I agree with most of what you say about HK. I would just like to reiterate that I don't think democracy will happen in China for a long time. I was under the impression that the Communists had camped down on the prodemocracy movement in HK in the last few years. I am not 100% on this so I am open to correction but AFAIK there isn't full freedom of speech there. There isn't even much freedom of spech on the internet in CHina thanks to the net police and Great Firewall.
You are correct, Chinese media is heavily censored. All internet access is regulated by the government. However, in Hong Kong there is freedom of speech and you can criticize the government. The internet is also open and uncensored. You are also correct that the prodemocracy movement has suffered setbacks, because Beijing always interferes in elections. Things may get worse there in the short run, but I think in the long run Hong Kong will be a better place just like the rest of China as lasting democratic reforms take hold in the country.

Serdica: I think you need to look at CHina rather than encyclopedias. China has adappted communism to suit itself and as such allows capitalism for individuals. It doesn't run on a communist economic model.

To make it lear what I'm arguing about in my other post I am saying that the middle classes will cause reform rather than start a revolution for democracy. I think reform will happen before any sort of mass movement for democracy because peasants (as they have done throughout history) just want to have a bit more money, land and be healthy. If they get those things then they will likely be appeased for quite a while until they start to go towards democratic leanings.
The problem is that the government is unlikely to appease the peasantry, because that would alienate the middle class. The democratic urge in China's peasantry rather strong... clearly peasants understand that they aren't ever going to get a bit more money, land, and health care from the current inefficient one-party system. For many, anything is better than their current life. A call for grassroots democracy has been a growing movement throughout the country; peasants hope they can elect socialistic officials who fight for more equality in the country. It is interesting that recently, the Communist party has tried to appease the peasants with limited reform... now all village level officials in China are elected, although all must be approved by the central government. People realize this isn't real democracy, though, and protests continue daily against the government's unresponsiveness and injustices.

China is a very patriotic country and the population knows the government is making it a strong figure on the international scene so they will continue to support it in the short term rather then campaign for democracy.
THe level of patriotism is hard to measure in China... middle class Chinese tend to be patriotic, but the hundreds of millions of peasants genuinely resent the central government's mistreatment of the poor and I don't know whether they care that much about the government's international missions if it treats its own people so poorly.

I can see how forcing the middle classes to up the wages of their workers would alienate them but healthcare and social support do not afect the profits of business men so surely that wouldn't. *starts to shrink back as he senses that debatorial defeat is imminent*

Edit: How will BJ 2008 afffect this. Will the public get behind the state as it dominates sport or use the olympics as an oppertunity to force reforms on the government?

I can see how forcing the middle classes to up the wages of their workers would alienate them but healthcare and social support do not afect the profits of business men so surely that wouldn't. *starts to shrink back as he senses that debatorial defeat is imminent*
A good social security system would require using taxes that otherwise could be spent as tax breaks for businesses or subsidizing the private sector... almost every large company in China gets grants from the government... i.e. land, money to help build factories, etc... Volkswagen for example got untold billions as a gift to build factories in Shanghai... if all these funds is instead used to support socialist initiatives, business growth would not be as great.

If there is a violent revolution as Liuzhou says, that would likely ruin China's infrastructure and economy, and even if the revolution fails the economy would get screwed over and more revolutions would follow so there's no point to the government resisting anyways. Personally I doubt there will be a revolution in China... China's leaders are not idiots and they will recognize when their time has come and they will need to allow multi party democratic reforms. And I shudder to think of the damage that revolution in china would do on the world's economy, given that all countries are so interconnected economically nowadays.

Edit: How will BJ 2008 afffect this. Will the public get behind the state as it dominates sport or use the olympics as an oppertunity to force reforms on the government?
I doubt anything major will happen politically within the next few years... things are not yet out of control and there is no determined or coherent effort against the government. But the olympics will not suddenly make the people particularly loyal to the government either. Beijing 2008 will come and go... people get excited for a while and then get make to their dreary every day lives. The only big thing that might be planned is Taiwanese independence, the timing chosen to force CHina into the dilemma of deciding whether to invade Taiwan during the a sensitive event like the Olympics. Although there is a lot of talk about this, I highly doubt Taiwan will ever declare independence.

That depends on Taiwan.

If they declare independence, China will be done for.

China has so many problems, that the only thing that keeps them going is the fuelling of nationalism. Or should I say Nationalsocialism?

They will have to attack Taiwan sooner or later. That in turn will have effects on the economy, the livelyhood of the people who won't get oil for their cars, loss of loved ones in the war, an increase of health problems, probably a pandemic of one sort or another.

The goverment will just become a monarchy, like in Monaco, and the President will just become the new God (of a communist country!), there will be more freedoms, and everything...

I'd say that their system will not collapse. It will change undoubtedly as the tide of foreign investment and economic growth continues, but a collapse would require some kind of fundamental shift in the nature of the country to occur. However, should the Chinese economy overheat and collapse, then this possibility will arise. Their policies on Taiwan will also affect this, because should they attack Taiwan there will be backlash and retaliation that could devastate their nation. (However, given the massive amount of economic interes the world has in China, I doubt that sanctions will be imposed).

That depends on Taiwan.

If they declare independence, China will be done for.

Imo your half right, if they declare independence china will invade, if they don’t it would be a political disaster for them, and lets face it Taiwan is starting to work up the nerve to utter the 'I' word.
what will decide the fate of the Chinese communist party is how the invasion of Taiwan goes.

I seriously doubt America will get involved bar giving Taiwan aid, Europe may send her fleets but land and air is impractical, and no one else in the region except Japan would get involved, and if Japan did that would be the next world war, because then its allies American and E.U would join in. If that happened china would get brained so that would be the end of the CCP.

However if Taiwan is left alone bar aid, and few international volunteers, the entire fate of the CCP rests on the Taiwanese ability to counter attack once the Chinese’s have taken the beaches (which they will by shear force of numbers) if the Taiwanese can beat them back, i suspect student and other democratic movements that have been forced underground since 1989, will start becoming very vocal, and if the defeat in Taiwan in quite large for china, I believe a civil war could break out quite quickie in china, i can definitely see Hong Kong succeeding which would probably cause large troubles for the CCP in the more liberal university cities such as shanghai and the industrial Guangdong district of the south. Again the western powers might get involved at this point.

But if Taiwan falls, this may also increase the likelihood of a guerrilla movement breaking out certainly on Taiwan, and perhaps Hong Kong and the areas i mentioned, this movement would of course receive western aid, and would enviably win.

The Fate of the CCP entirely rests on the politicians of Taiwan, should they declare independence it will be the beginning of the end of communism in china.

BTW, I consider most of my opinions quite reliable as I happen by chance to be very good friends with two rather influential Citizen of Hong Kong and of Beijing

The Fate of the CCP entirely rests on the politicians of Taiwan, should they declare independence it will be the beginning of the end of communism in china.

It will be a situation similar to the collapse of Eastern Europe and its effect on the USSR. This will be a psychological blow that will highlight both the inablility of the CCP to defend and impose its authority, and the overall weak position communism holds in the area. From there, the chain will begin to collapse until the party falls, either peacefully or by a coup.

It will be a situation similar to the collapse of Eastern Europe and its effect on the USSR. This will be a psychological blow that will highlight both the inablility of the CCP to defend and impose its authority, and the overall weak position communism holds in the area. From there, the chain will begin to collapse until the party falls, either peacefully or by a coup.

I agree that if Taiwan split from China then that would weaken the Chinese government. However IMO China will simply send it's army to suppress Taiwan.

I see China making a peaceful transition to democracy, but at a very gradual pace. Conflict with Taiwan would undoubtable weaken the Communist regime, but I think the bill passed authorizing force was merely Saber rattling. China does not want to do anything that would make the West think twice about trade with China. As it has been mentioned several times in this thread, as long as the middle and upper classes are content (ie no war, economic prosperity) the transition to multiparty democracy will take place somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-50 years.

I agree that if Taiwan split from China then that would weaken the Chinese government. However IMO China will simply send it's army to suppress Taiwan.

I think any military action by the army would be solely determinate on the amount and type of intervention from the US and other nations in the region. However, this would pose some riss, because North Korea would likely take the opportunity of a Chinese war to strike at South Korea, Japan, or even the US.

I see China making a peaceful transition to democracy, but at a very gradual pace. Conflict with Taiwan would undoubtable weaken the Communist regime, but I think the bill passed authorizing force was merely Saber rattling. China does not want to do anything that would make the West think twice about trade with China. As it has been mentioned several times in this thread, as long as the middle and upper classes are content (ie no war, economic prosperity) the transition to multiparty democracy will take place somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-50 years.

Really its not, China really really wants taiwan back, they do kinds of subtle little jibs, like they report the weather there, and its on all the mans of china and stuff, no to mention i think its part of the nation ciriculum how taiwan in part of china that is.

Really really will try and get back it all a matter of timing.

China's totalitarian government will fall eventually. Maybe in 50 years.

*sighs*

...but China's bureaucracy is legendary, even among bureaucracies. It was a joke.

Never mind.
Do you know how big China's government is? They employ 46 million people!

I think any military action by the army would be solely determinate on the amount and type of intervention from the US and other nations in the region. However, this would pose some riss, because North Korea would likely take the opportunity of a Chinese war to strike at South Korea, Japan, or even the US.

I believe the US should stay out of this issue if possible and leave it to the UN.

I believe the US should stay out of this issue if possible and leave it to the UN.

I agree, but it is likely that the US would get involved solely for the purpose of protecting its economic interests. I am additionally concerned that US action in the region would result in retaliation against either the US or South Korea, should there be a drawn out land engagement. Plus, Russia may get involved indirectly with the Chinese, selling weapons and equipment, so the possiblity for internationalization of the war would be very large.

I say it's likely but not for 50+ years

I believe the US should stay out of this issue if possible and leave it to the UN.
Erm, no can do. The US has a very strong presence in South Korea, and by strong, I mean thousands of troops and an allied government with binding defense treaties. Should the scenario presented play out (China goes for Taiwan, N. Korea jumps the shark and goes for S. Korea), the US will be bound to intervene. If we did not, the cost would be horrifc on our International Relations (breaking a binding defense treaty and leaving an ally to get creamed).

If just the China vs. Taiwan situation is played out, the US intervention becomes more questionable. We have historically had very good ties with Taiwan, such as selling them weapons, but we also have economic ties with China. Whether we got involved would probably depend on the actions leading up the attack, (ie: did we "posture" a carrier group in the Straits to send a message, as we've done before).

China is hardy a totalitarian state currently, but Its certainly not free. The middle class in china is growing fast and athough they currently don't care about politics. That will change once the country reaches a certain wealth. Looking back 15 to 20 years ago South Korea and Taiwan where Military Dictatorships and they slowly became democratic. I imagine something similar will happen in China. Probably 20-30 years. Until then the Chinese will enjoy more civil freedom and economic prosperity.

China is still a civil society, not an entirely consumerist society. Thus, people still feel that they have something to contribute to the running of the government. (Even in America, a consumer society, people STILL spout their views on government)
The growing middle class will soon feel it is justified in seeking new freedoms(as their computers and sattelite dishes will show them pictures of America and American ideas), and the working classes, possibly soon to struggle, will also demand their fair share of political say.

ChinaComm will have to make concessions, but I don't think they will. Meaning the party will collapse.

I think it'll probably change rather than collapse. It definitely would come internally, don't think it would be via a revolution. Maybe after years of corruption, they'll elect a benevolent leader that would take charge.

Wishful thinking :)

China's totalitarian government will fall eventually. Maybe in 50 years.


Do you know how big China's government is? They employ 46 million people!
Damn, they make the US bureaucracy seem non existant.

Hmmmmm...

Well, first of all: The Soviet Union could, and in my opinion should have stuck together, foremost for international stability but also because of major social issues in affected countries. I believe no collapse of Chinese communism will happen. The Soviet Union had a long chain of events leading up to the unfortunate collapse, like making Gorbachev the big dog. Damn you Andropov, why did you die so soon?

China is the future people! As many know we are moving towards a new great depression, probably it will occur in one or two decades. This might be the event leading to a change in the balance of power, some form of Soviet-like collapse of the US and the rise of China.

China is growing rapidly as both a military and an economic powerhouse. The government will most likely be unthreatened, especially the new leader, what's-his-face, who have such good interaction with average chinese. I think China will remain officially communist for the rest of our lives. The workers might dislike government corruption, but you need a lot to have a revolution.

Many Chinese like how things are changing, the problem is that it seems most of the people on this forum assume that the Chinese will actually care about having "Western" democracy. After all, it is not the most efficient form of government. Americans probably are the least likely to understand why someone would not want western democracy, I as a western european also support liberty. For example Russians prefer economic security, that's why the average Russians like what Putin is doing and many wish that communism hadn't been done away with.

Taiwan will sometime be annexed by China, not just officially but will become de facto Chinese controlled. Either by invasion or by diplomacy. One risk is a showdown between the American armed Japan and China. North Korea is a regime I believe China would not mourn if it was overthrown, maybe replaced by a more China-friendly leadership.

To stop the rambling: China will last, most likely the CCP will remain in power for a very, very long time.

Given my theory of the next great war being a US-China war, I suspect it will collapse, but not anytime soon.

Yes it will collapse. It nearly happened in 1989. Resentment has been boiling for quite some time since then, and in the next generation, it'll probably explode. This will be especially true once the economy takes a downturn.
However, I doubt it will be violent. China is too open and wealthy of a society to have anything more than a couple of clashes with police. Most likely, the Communist party will allow free and fair competition in the government, and its party structure will significantly weaken.

China has never, and I mean never, needed to fear a collapse. The demonstrations in 1989 are all but forgotten in China, Chinese intellectuals consider the actions taken by the government to have been necessary.

A Sino-American war would most likely not start until China feels confident in the PLA. Right now, the US cannot win a land war against China. The only reason the US is stronger is because of it's navy and airpower. This might change over the next few decades.

China's system will continue to adapt, growing stronger. The thing some people seem to think is that a multiparty system would have to be created with a growing economy. Tsarism in Russia could have lasted longer if it had not been for several mistakes made by the last tsars. They couldn't adapt, but the Chinese communist pary is adapting to a changing world.

Besides, with the war of terror the US has started to violate civil rights for the sake of security, something the USSR and China has always done. Hmmmm...

Hmm quite a few people have chosen the democracy option. I have this to ask you. How would a Western Style democracy work in nation with no history of Democracy? Even if China does transform into a democracy, it's not going to happen anytime soon. The urban middle class is growing, and as long as the CCP pours wealth into the country, most of the dominant middle class are going to ignore the social problems that plague the country.