NationStates Jolt Archive


A question Re a scenario for a 2008 Israeli attack on Iran

Daistallia 2104
06-04-2005, 08:22
This scenario is for some background to something unrelated to NS. I want to know how plausable it is.

History of the 4 Days War

In January 2008 the Iranians suspended IAEA inspections, and deported all the inspectors. The US and Israel warned of serious repercussions if the inspectons are not resumed. As the war orf words escalated, tensions in the Middle East reached a boiling point.

On Thursday, March 13, 2008, Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities at Bushehr. In a pre-dawn raid, an undisclosed number of Israeli warplanes took off from military airbases in the Negev. The planes flew over parts of Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, refueling in mid-air somewhere over Iraq before reaching their target. Iran managed to shoot down several Israeli fighters. Several pilots were lynched by furious mobs before Iranian authorities could reach them.

As the attacks were reported, millions throught the Arab and Islamic world took to the streets demanding immediate action against Israel. The Israeli embassies in Cairo, Amman, and Ankara were ransacked. American embassies in a number of other cities were burned.

After Friday prayers the next day, crowds across the Islamic world, incited by fiery sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi again took to the streets. Many government buildings were ransacked, and larger clashes with security forces resulted in greater casualties. When police were overwhelmed, the military was called in. Hundreds were killed when the militaries opened fire. Martial law was declared, and curfews were imposed in Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Turkey, failed to prevent further mayhem and rioting. In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security forces in several cities. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel.

On Saturday, believing that Israel would never undertake such actions without U.S. approval, or at least a tacit nod from the American administration, Iran retaliated. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards were dispatched across the border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops as possible.

Fierce clashes erupted between US and Iraqi forces and the Iranians. Within hours, more than 400 U.S. troops had been killed, and many more wounded in heavy fighting. Iranian sleeper agents, who had infiltrated Iraq since the downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shiites into action. They cut major highways and harassed coalition troops, preventing reinforcements from reaching units under attack. Several helicopters were shot down.

At the same time, Hezbollah, under orders from Tehran, launced thousands of missile, rocket, and mortar attacks against kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliated with artillery and air stikes, with large numbers of casualties on both sides of the frontier.

Syria, readied it's army for a full-blown war in support of it's allies in Lebanon.

The Palestinians, heartened by the pre-occupation of Israel, decided that this is their chance to achieve statehood in the "West Bank" and launched a full scale offensive against Israel. By Monday morning the Palestinians had risen up en masse in Yesha, thinking it is the opportune time to establish their state by force. In response, the IDF employs a full scale invasion to retake control.

While these events were unfolding, Iran loaded it’s two surviving nuclear weapons onto military transports. The aircraft took off from a remote military airfield, headed for east Africa. The weapons were loaded aboard executive Lear jets with South African tail markings and identification. On Monday afternoon, these jets, flown by suicide pilots posing as business executives, approach Israel from the south, armed with false flight plans and headed for Tel Aviv and Ashdod. They followed the flight path given to them by Israeli air traffic control. But at the last moment, veer away from the airfield, soar into the sky and dive into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the process.

Israel correctly blaimed Iran, and retaliated with a nuclear strike against Tehran, killing millions in the process. Isreal also struck several other targets related to Iran's nuclear program.
In response, both Syria and Hezbollah employed chemical and biological weapons against Israel. Israel responded with additional tactical nuclear weapons against southern Lebanon and Damascus.

As Pakistan readied it's own missiles for a retaliatory strike against Isreal, the United States desperately tried to arrange a cease-fire. The US finally threatened the use of it's own nuclear arsenal against Isreal., and any other state employeeing WMDs, bringing an immediate end to the hostilities.

Any suggested changes or additions?
New Granada
06-04-2005, 08:25
I firmly anticipate a muslim cleric rationalizing whatever israel and the world's response would be as "martyrdom on a massive scale."
Robbopolis
06-04-2005, 08:29
Any suggested changes or additions?

I don't think that Israel would nuke Damascus. It's too close to its boarders, and there would be a risk of fallout blowing back into Israel.
Daistallia 2104
06-04-2005, 08:31
I firmly anticipate a muslim cleric rationalizing whatever israel and the world's response would be as "martyrdom on a massive scale."

Yep. That comes later in the timeline this is for. (Let's just say smallpox is not fun.)
Daistallia 2104
06-04-2005, 08:33
I don't think that Israel would nuke Damascus. It's too close to its boarders, and there would be a risk of fallout blowing back into Israel.

Yeah, that was one of the concerns I had. The other option may be a chemical response. Which ever one, I want a quick and nasty response for the set up.
New Sancrosanctia
06-04-2005, 08:34
I don't think that Israel would nuke Damascus. It's too close to its boarders, and there would be a risk of fallout blowing back into Israel.
there's a risk of fallout blowing pretty much anywhere. the cloud from chernoble (sp?) raise cancer rates in germany. and a nuke would be a much, much bigger explosion, and would spread radiation farther.
Dobbs Town
06-04-2005, 08:37
Maybe you should have Mecca done in by someone or other in all of this.
Robbopolis
06-04-2005, 08:47
there's a risk of fallout blowing pretty much anywhere. the cloud from chernoble (sp?) raise cancer rates in germany. and a nuke would be a much, much bigger explosion, and would spread radiation farther.

Chernobel was a nuke. A nuclear power plant melted down, which is essentially a nuke without the huge explosion.
New Sancrosanctia
06-04-2005, 08:59
Chernobel was a nuke. A nuclear power plant melted down, which is essentially a nuke without the huge explosion.
it wasn't a meltdown, if memory from an 8th grade project serves. it was a normal explosion, not a nuclear one. the generators coolign system malfunctioned, and steam pressure cause it to explode. the explosion released a cloud of radiation, irradiating the surroundign area for miles, and releasing the aforementioned cloud. but jsut look at the pictures of the the plant. the damage is small. but hey, i could be wrong.
Daistallia 2104
06-04-2005, 09:01
Maybe you should have Mecca done in by someone or other in all of this.

1) There's no real reason for Israel to do that.

2) I wanted a very nasty short war that eventually leads to a bigger one, but not all out total warfare to the death. Hitting Mecca and Medina would be one of those where even the major powers couldn't step in and stop the war.

3) Saudi Arabia (and the Gulf States) play important roles in later parts of the timeline.
Daistallia 2104
06-04-2005, 09:11
it wasn't a meltdown, if memory from an 8th grade project serves. it was a normal explosion, not a nuclear one. the generators coolign system malfunctioned, and steam pressure cause it to explode. the explosion released a cloud of radiation, irradiating the surroundign area for miles, and releasing the aforementioned cloud. but jsut look at the pictures of the the plant. the damage is small. but hey, i could be wrong.

Essentially correct. It was a steam explosion caused by the reaction of fuel and water. A surge in pressure while conducting an emergecy shutdown test ruptured the fuel. It was largely human error on the part of the operators.

http://www.chernobyl.co.uk/sequence.html
New Sancrosanctia
06-04-2005, 09:14
Essentially correct. It was a steam explosion caused by the reaction of fuel and water. A surge in pressure while conducting an emergecy shutdown test ruptured the fuel. It was largely human error on the part of the operators.

http://www.chernobyl.co.uk/sequence.html
that much i do remember. that and the fact that i illustrated my proje with a really shitty carboard mock up of chernoble with a hole burned in the side. worst part? i got an a.
Daistallia 2104
06-04-2005, 09:22
that much i do remember. that and the fact that i illustrated my proje with a really shitty carboard mock up of chernoble with a hole burned in the side. worst part? i got an a.

Reminds me of an awful World History course I took at university (the prof used a really lame serious of videos instead of actually lecturing). After getting an A+ on the first paper, which I though was about a C+ paper, I set out to see how bad I could do on a paper and still get a decent grade in the class. I got an A. :rolleyes: