NationStates Jolt Archive

Anyone else notice the leftis president of Venezuela lately. After a failed coup he has grown increasing paranoid. He says the US is going to plan an invasion. Which is a load of crap. His most recent dealings in arms deals are very large. He is buying Russian mig 29's, helo's small arms, and apc's. He has announced just recently of adding 1.5 mill troops to the nations reserve forces. Now he refers to Venezuela as the fatherland. Do we have in the making a new expansionist dictator? Anyone else care to throw in there comments. This area of the world doesnt get much press. But it is looking increasingly like a new hotspot. What will Brazil's answer be. They are the pre-eminate military power in S America. Can we expect an arms race? Brazil recently has met with US companies to provide new radar equipment for the nation. Columbia has a small contigent of US troops fighting with the Columbian government against insurgents staging from Venezuela. This could turn out to be a dangerous area very soon.

Source? And if this is true, I can't wait to tear a Venezuelan MiG a new asshole with a Sidewinder.

...Columbia has a small contigent of US troops fighting with the Columbian government ....a small contingent? :D

Who do you think Venezuela would engage first?

Anyone else notice the leftis president of Venezuela lately. After a failed coup he has grown increasing paranoid. He says the US is going to plan an invasion. Which is a load of crap. His most recent dealings in arms deals are very large. He is buying Russian mig 29's, helo's small arms, and apc's. ...What kind of weapons would you buy if you were expecting a US invasion?

I would not buy Planes thats for sure.

Who do you think Venezuela would engage first?

'Prolly us, (United States) if he's paranoid about us 'invading'. They'd better remember:

http://www.peterson.af.mil/hqafspc/News/images/04-125.jpg

We've got cooler guns.

'Prolly us, (United States) if he's paranoid about us 'invading'. They'd better remember:

http://www.peterson.af.mil/hqafspc/News/images/04-125.jpg

We've got cooler guns.

He couldn't be that crazy, could he?

Here are some revelant links:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4395873.stm

http://washingtontimes.com/national/20050210-123420-3113r.htm

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9411F5CA-69F5-45E5-8005-98A51BAE14B5.htm


http://www.autentico.org/oa09727.php

Who do you think Venezuela would engage first?


Columbian forces

This venzuelian president is very close with the cuban dictator but the cuban man won't last much longer. Anyways what does this dude thinking he'll be crush within 48 hours if he attacks and it won't take long for our forces to crush him if we attack first. either way we'll be ready :sniper:

Columbian forces
He'll probably just give the arms to the FARC and the ELN to do the fighting for him...

An ex military man, elected president decides to upgrade the military hardware in a third world country and the US paranoid crowd decide he is preparing for war. Give us a break.

Venezuela is concerned about FARC incursions into its territories, it has recently come to agreement with the government of Colombia, after lots of posturing (in a very Latin way) by both sides. It does have very outdated military equipment, and what is it planning on buying. AK47s, transport aircraft, and fast coastal patrol boats mostly. (The mig deal appears to rumour more than fact.) Hardly gearing up for war is it? Sounds more like he is worried by USA hawkishness and is, as he said, preparing to defend the homeland, if necessary.

Try reading the reports you link to.

This is the beginning of another Cold War. The international community has been putting a lot of pressure on dictators around the world. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, Milosevic and the overthrowing of leaders in Ukraine, Georgia and now Turkmenistan, leaders around the world are getting a little worried. This is just an example of a dictator securing his power and ticking off the international community. Some of the of the countries that can be invovled in this new cold war include pretty much any dicatorship in the world, like NK, Iran,
Cuba, Russia (Putin is a wannabe,) Syria and other stan countries like Uzbekistan.

I am predicting a new Cold War that will include more countries than the original.

This is the beginning of another Cold War. The international community has been putting a lot of pressure on dictators around the world. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, Milosevic and the overthrowing of leaders in Ukraine, Georgia and now Turkmenistan, leaders around the world are getting a little worried. This is just an example of a dictator securing his power and ticking off the international community. Some of the of the countries that can be invovled in this new cold war include pretty much any dicatorship in the world, like NK, Iran,
Cuba, Russia (Putin is a wannabe,) Syria and other stan countries like Uzbekistan.

I am predicting a new Cold War that will include more countries than the original.

But not Saudi Arabia, or Jordan apparently. (Oh and Chavez, detest his politics as much as I do, is not a dictator. He was democratically elected)

An ex military man, elected president decides to upgrade the military hardware in a third world country and the US paranoid crowd decide he is preparing for war. Give us a break.

Venezuela is concerned about FARC incursions into its territories, it has recently come to agreement with the government of Colombia, after lots of posturing (in a very Latin way) by both sides. It does have very outdated military equipment, and what is it planning on buying. AK47s, transport aircraft, and fast coastal patrol boats mostly. (The mig deal appears to rumour more than fact.) Hardly gearing up for war is it? Sounds more like he is worried by USA hawkishness and is, as he said, preparing to defend the homeland, if necessary.

Try reading the reports you link to.
I don't know about that. Chavez is concerned about the FARC? Hasn't he praised and tacitly supported the FARC who shares a similar quais socialist nationalist outlook?
Also why think the Mig-29 deal isn't going to happen? What source said that? As far as being outdated the Mig 29 is not bad depending on what upgrades he gets on them.

Strange, I was thinking of Venezuela/Caracas just this morning. I hope there is no war, South America has advanced in leaps and bounds, I hope they don't go and throw it all away in some attempt to portray some contemporary politician as Simon Bolivar to satisify some ego trip.

(Oh and Chavez, detest his politics as much as I do, is not a dictator. He was democratically elected)

So was Hitler. Policies and selection matter.

I don't know about that. Chavez is concerned about the FARC? Hasn't he praised and tacitly supported the FARC who shares a similar quais socialist nationalist outlook?
Also why think the Mig-29 deal isn't going to happen? What source said that? As far as being outdated the Mig 29 is not bad depending on what upgrades he gets on them.

First show me a source that says that the mig 29 deal was ever going to happen. As far as I can see it is just rumour. I can be convinced otherwise by a reliable source though.

Chavez has never praised FARC politically. For all of his wrongheaded political ideas, he is a democrat (in the international sense not the US political sense), who does believe in elections and referenda. He has a military background, and may have ar some time commented on the military strategy of FARC. (I don't know that he has, but I can not say that he has not). His political ideas may be similar to those promoted by FARC leadership, but this does not mean that he supports them or their methods.

So was Hitler. Policies and selection matter.

Hitler, once he was in power, overturned the German constitution and thereby made himself dictator for life. Chavez, has not done anything of the kind. He has even submitted to two public votes on removing him from office before his elected term is completed. He is, fundamentally, connected to the democratic principle.

What policies of his make him a dictator? What do you mean by selection?

I, am arguing here fro fairness. If you check my Political Compass results in my sig, you will see that I am right of centre in my personal politics.

If a US invasion was looming ahead, I'd create my very own chapter of Space Marines. Those are swell!

Hitler, once he was in power, overturned the German constitution and thereby made himself dictator for life. Chavez, has not done anything of the kind. He has even submitted to two public votes on removing him from office before his elected term is completed. He is, fundamentally, connected to the democratic principle.

What policies of his make him a dictator? What do you mean by selection?

I, am arguing here fro fairness. If you check my Political Compass results in my sig, you will see that I am right of centre in my personal politics.

I wasn't commenting his politics. Honestly, I don't enough about him to say either way. I just wanted to stay away from the idea that getting into office by election makes you a good guy. If memory serves, Hitler also held a referendum to make him dictator for life. He was a pretty popular guy in Germany until the end of the war.

By selection, I meant the way that he got into office, whether that's democratic election, military coup, etc.

First show me a source that says that the mig 29 deal was ever going to happen. As far as I can see it is just rumour. I can be convinced otherwise by a reliable source though.

Chavez has never praised FARC politically. For all of his wrongheaded political ideas, he is a democrat (in the international sense not the US political sense), who does believe in elections and referenda. He has a military background, and may have ar some time commented on the military strategy of FARC. (I don't know that he has, but I can not say that he has not). His political ideas may be similar to those promoted by FARC leadership, but this does not mean that he supports them or their methods.
http://washingtontimes.com/national/20050210-123420-3113r.htm

"The arms deal with Russia does not call only for AK-47s. Russia will also supply MiG-29 fighters and attack helicopters. Additionally, U.S. intelligence believes the AK-47 buy may eventually reach 300,000 rifles. "

Not that there is anything wrong with that, every country needs to protect itself, especially left wing governments like Venezuela which have been targeted by the US which has seemed to have had a hand in ochestrating attempted coups.

http://washingtontimes.com/national/20050210-123420-3113r.htm

"The arms deal with Russia does not call only for AK-47s. Russia will also supply MiG-29 fighters and attack helicopters. Additionally, U.S. intelligence believes the AK-47 buy may eventually reach 300,000 rifles. "

Not that there is anything wrong with that, every country needs to protect itself, especially left wing governments like Venezuela which have been targeted by the US which has seemed to have had a hand in ochestrating attempted coups.

Fair enough, it is a little strange though that this is only mentioned more than two thirds of the way through the article and in conjunction with a speculation coming from the Pentagon (300,000 AKs), when the 100,000 AK47s are mentioned at the top of the story.

I would probably have more reason to be worried about his arming, than anyone in the USA, as I live next door, but there is no evidence of his wanting to start a fight. He does appear to be becoming a little paranoid, but that is to be expected being anti USA in position nowadays. Isn't that a shameful thing to have to say.

This is the beginning of another Cold War. The international community has been putting a lot of pressure on dictators around the world. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, Milosevic and the overthrowing of leaders in Ukraine, Georgia and now Turkmenistan, leaders around the world are getting a little worried. This is just an example of a dictator securing his power and ticking off the international community. Some of the of the countries that can be invovled in this new cold war include pretty much any dicatorship in the world, like NK, Iran,
Cuba, Russia (Putin is a wannabe,) Syria and other stan countries like Uzbekistan.
I am predicting a new Cold War that will include more countries than the original.

OMG!! Chavez is NOT a dictator!! He's won nine elections! Last summer he won a recall referendum with 60% of the vote. What's more the referendum was supervised by the OAS, and even Jimmy Carter was there.

Repeat, he is NOT a dictator.

things to keep in mind about Venezuela

its still a democratic nation, which over the last 20 years has had multiple coup attempts, so the military doesn't have a lot of capability as its professionalism is weak because its too busy either putting down coups be various officers or attempting to do the same. Historically armies like this are pretty ineffective (1982 Argentina for example).

With any luck the voters will realize he is loony and vote him out before he does something stupid like provide military support to the FARC in Colombia. That would be certainly a very good reason for Colombia to declare war. It would be like Portugal supplying arms to the Basque seperatists, or Greece supplying arms to the Greek Cypriots.

Most important for the West, Venezuela is a source of a lot of US oil, and instability in Venezuela or it collapsing economically would be an extremely bad thing. Consider what that means. The price of oil would very likely double at the very least, as we are talking about roughly 20% of the US oil supply or about 5% of the worlds supply.

To say Venezulean stability is vital to the strategic interest of the United States is an understatement. Its pretty damned important to the rest of the world too.

But for now lets hope he is merely trying to appeal to his socialist base and is saber rattling for domestic purposes.

'Prolly us, (United States) if he's paranoid about us 'invading'. They'd better remember:

http://www.peterson.af.mil/hqafspc/News/images/04-125.jpg
We've got cooler guns.
My God that's phallic

Well, Venezuela has oil, so is an American Invasion really that unlikely?

OMG!! Chavez is NOT a dictator!! He's won nine elections! Last summer he won a recall referendum with 60% of the vote. What's more the referendum was supervised by the OAS, and even Jimmy Carter was there.

Repeat, he is NOT a dictator.

As I said above, just getting elected democratically doesn't mean that he's not a dictator. Hitler was elected democratically, and got referendums passed which granted him the power to change the constitution and remain didcator for life. Being freely elected is only the first step.

I wasn't commenting his politics. Honestly, I don't enough about him to say either way. I just wanted to stay away from the idea that getting into office by election makes you a good guy. If memory serves, Hitler also held a referendum to make him dictator for life. He was a pretty popular guy in Germany until the end of the war.

By selection, I meant the way that he got into office, whether that's democratic election, military coup, etc.

Hitler was elected, true. He was given the power to rule by decree (became a dictator) after the reichstag fire. Here's the Wikipedia entry on the Reichstag Fire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire)
And you are right about winning elections and being a good guy. There have been dozens of foreign sponsored demonstration elections (http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=7240) around the world over the past century. However, if you are going to liken Chavez to Hitler with respect to his rise to power. You are sadly mistaken.

Well, Venezuela has oil, so is an American Invasion really that unlikely?

If they are as stupid as some of their representatives here seem to be, then no. If they actually consider the terrain that Venezuela occupies, and they remember Vietnam, then it seems highly unlikely.

Chavez is still selling oil to the USA, he needs to, it is the financial lifeblood of the country. Without the oil revenue he can not carry out the welfare reforms etc, that he promised. To obtain this revenue, he is nationalising the oil production. This may be ideologically abhorrant to the majority of Americans, but it really is none of their business while the oil is still being supplied.

Hitler was elected, true. He was given the power to rule by decree (became a dictator) after the reichstag fire. Here's the Wikipedia entry on the Reichstag Fire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire)
And you are right about winning elections and being a good guy. There have been dozens of foreign sponsored demonstration elections (http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=7240) around the world over the past century. However, if you are going to liken Chavez to Hitler with respect to his rise to power. You are sadly mistaken.

Again, I'm not talking about Chavez's policies. I don't know enough about them to comment. All I'm saying is that an election is not enough to make things legitimate.

Again, I'm not talking about Chavez's policies. I don't know enough about them to comment. All I'm saying is that an election is not enough to make things legitimate.

Really? Okay, he's won nine elections in about 7 years now. He won the recall referendum with a 60% majority. The election was declared free and fair by the OAS and Jimmy Carter. What would it take to make things legitimate?

If they are as stupid as some of their representatives here seem to be, then no. If they actually consider the terrain that Venezuela occupies, and they remember Vietnam, then it seems highly unlikely.

Chavez is still selling oil to the USA, he needs to, it is the financial lifeblood of the country. Without the oil revenue he can not carry out the welfare reforms etc, that he promised. To obtain this revenue, he is nationalising the oil production. This may be ideologically abhorrant to the majority of Americans, but it really is none of their business while the oil is still being supplied.


Considering 96% of americans couldent find Venezuela on a globe, I don't think they really care where their oil comes from, or how it gets there. They gust need more gas for their Hummers! :rolleyes:

As I said above, just getting elected democratically doesn't mean that he's not a dictator. Hitler was elected democratically, and got referendums passed which granted him the power to change the constitution and remain didcator for life. Being freely elected is only the first step.
Again, I'm not talking about Chavez's policies. I don't know enough about them to comment. All I'm saying is that an election is not enough to make things legitimate.

The problem is that the first post clearly imples an identification between Chavez and Hitlere. It is not explicit, but it is there to be read. The second post only restates the first, with a rider that makes it sound like you are not identifying the two leaders, when you have done so.

Please be clear. Chavez is a dictator or Chavez is not a dictator (Based on current facts.)

Really? Okay, he's won nine elections in about 7 years now. He won the recall referendum with a 60% majority. The election was declared free and fair by the OAS and Jimmy Carter. What would it take to make things legitimate?

Legitimate would be that he respects the decisions of the courts, doesn't try to hog all the power, etc. If he's in line with that, then I'm pretty happy.

Considering 96% of americans couldent find Venezuela on a globe, I don't think they really care where their oil comes from, or how it gets there. They gust need more gas for their Hummers! :rolleyes:

Which is a reason why America wouldn't invade, it would send oil prices up and goodness knows that Americans think they are paying too much at the pump now. Personally I would love to pay American prices, we pay almost double at the pump I am told.

But not Saudi Arabia, or Jordan apparently. (Oh and Chavez, detest his politics as much as I do, is not a dictator. He was democratically elected)


Chavez is a dictator. Remember Saddam was elected too.

The problem is that the first post clearly imples an identification between Chavez and Hitlere. It is not explicit, but it is there to be read. The second post only restates the first, with a rider that makes it sound like you are not identifying the two leaders, when you have done so.

Please be clear. Chavez is a dictator or Chavez is not a dictator (Based on current facts.)

I don't know if he's a dictator or not. I've heard too many conflicting reports, and I haven't sorted them out yet. All I'm saying is that there have been dictators who have used the democratic process in the past. It's a comment on the idea that elections make everything hunky-dory. They don't.

Considering 96% of americans couldent find Venezuela on a globe, I don't think they really care where their oil comes from, or how it gets there. They gust need more gas for their Hummers! :rolleyes:

Here we go with the Americans are geographically stupid again. Get tired of hearing this shit. I would bet alot of people know where Venezuela is. I personally highly doubt the US at all is even thinking of doing anything in Venezuela. But I am posting that Chavez thinks we are. That in itself can be dangerous.

This is just an example of a dictator securing his power and ticking off the international community. Actually...This is just an example of US Ignorance...and US media Bias.

Chavez is a dictator. Remember Saddam was elected too.

Are you willing to state that Bush is a dictator, or Blair. They also were elected. What is your criteria for being a dictator.

Saddam Hussein was not elected in an externaly monitered open election with opposition candidates etc. Chavez was. Bush was.
Saddam =/= Chavez = Bush (get it yet?)

Chavez is a dictator.more Ignorance.

If they are as stupid as some of their representatives here seem to be, then no. If they actually consider the terrain that Venezuela occupies, and they remember Vietnam, then it seems highly unlikely.

Erm, AB, given the last two years in Iraq do you think the US actually remembers Viet Nam? Personally I think they're going to use Columbia as a proxy to invade Venezuela and then assist Columbia spread democracy throughout south america. It's all speculation, I know. But I'm pretty sure that Bush has Uribes cajones in his back pocket.

I don't know if he's a dictator or not. I've heard too many conflicting reports...at least this one is not pwned by the US media.

Erm, AB, given the last two years in Iraq do you think the US actually remembers Viet Nam? Personally I think they're going to use Columbia as a proxy to invade Venezuela and then assist Columbia spread democracy throughout south america. It's all speculation, I know. But I'm pretty sure that Bush has Uribes cajones in his back pocket.
So which countries exactly in S America aren't democratic???

An ex military man, elected president decides to upgrade the military hardware in a third world country and the US paranoid crowd decide he is preparing for war. Give us a break.

Venezuela is concerned about FARC incursions into its territories, it has recently come to agreement with the government of Colombia, after lots of posturing (in a very Latin way) by both sides. It does have very outdated military equipment, and what is it planning on buying. AK47s, transport aircraft, and fast coastal patrol boats mostly. (The mig deal appears to rumour more than fact.) Hardly gearing up for war is it? Sounds more like he is worried by USA hawkishness and is, as he said, preparing to defend the homeland, if necessary.

Try reading the reports you link to.
I doubt the US is worried one bit about Venezuela. Hell I can beat them down with the few rifles i have.

He is more than updating his armed forces. Why would you need 1.5 million reservists? Unless you think a war is going to happen. Sounds more like a worried Chavez more than anything. What do paranoid dictators tend to do? And yes he is a dictator now. Maybe he started out elected.

Anyway, yes i did read the links i posted.

more Ignorance.


More stupidity on your part.

So which countries exactly in S America aren't democratic???

The ones that don't obey Bu$h, naturally. Sorry, my original sarcasm didn't come through.

Are you willing to state that Bush is a dictator, or Blair. They also were elected. What is your criteria for being a dictator.

Saddam Hussein was not elected in an externaly monitered open election with opposition candidates etc. Chavez was. Bush was.
Saddam =/= Chavez = Bush (get it yet?)

Bush and Blair have not been recalled from power. If they were, they would step down. Chavez has crossed into the dictator position by not stepping down.

Here we go with the Americans are geographically stupid again. Get tired of hearing this shit. I would bet alot of people know where Venezuela is. I personally highly doubt the US at all is even thinking of doing anything in Venezuela. But I am posting that Chavez thinks we are. That in itself can be dangerous.

It is very popular in South America (for good historical reasons) to demonize the USA. This is all that Chavez is doing. Playing to his supporters, his public. I am willing to bet that he does not think anything of the sort in reality. He is a little (well actually a lot) more streetwise than that.
Did you look at how the local crisis between Colombia and Venezuela worked out over Colombian forces capturing a wanted criminal in Venezuela? Lots of soundbites from Chavez to keep his power base happy. Lots of posturing. Nothing else. The criminal is still in Colombia, there was an invasion of Venezuelan territory by the Colombians, but there were to be no reprisals, no recriminations, just a media opportunity well taken by Chavez.

I doubt the US is worried one bit about Venezuela. Hell I can beat them down with the few rifles i have.

He is more than updating his armed forces. Why would you need 1.5 million reservists? Unless you think a war is going to happen. Sounds more like a worried Chavez more than anything. What do paranoid dictators tend to do? And yes he is a dictator now. Maybe he started out elected.

Anyway, yes i did read the links i posted.

He's a dictator now? When did that happen? He won the referendum last July. So sometime in the last 9 months.

i think both the washington times article and this forum are blowing this issue out of proportion - Washington is just concerned about this because it feels this is a bad political move on the part of Venezuela - 100, 000 is a lot for Venezuela - theres other things to spend your money on and that many guns just makes the countries around you nervous - and and maybe Washington is a little pissed that Venezuela didnt even talk to them about a possible deal

Bush and Blair have not been recalled from power. If they were, they would step down. Chavez has crossed into the dictator position by not stepping down.

Ummm, Chaves won the referendum last summer with 60% of the vote. The OAS and Jimmy Carter both validated the recall referendum as free and fair.

What are you referring to when you imply that Chavez was 'recalled from power'?

Bush and Blair have not been recalled from power. If they were, they would step down. Chavez has crossed into the dictator position by not stepping down.

He has not been recalled from power. There was a movement to do so. Jimmy Carter and colleagues flew down to scrutinise the public referendum. Chavez won with 57%+ of the vote. He has a stroinger mandate that Bush or Blair.

Please check the facts, before making assumptions. Alternatively read both sides of the story and look for neutral confirmation (which this case has.)

Try the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3569674.stm)

Dr Julia Buxton is a Venezuela expert at London's Kingston University who has just returned to the country.

Chavez's victory is to be expected. The opposition made some real mistakes going into this campaign. They hadn't chosen a presidential candidate or a policy programme despite the fact that Chavez's defeat would have triggered a presidential election. The opposition just offered the unknown to Venezuelans.

The margin of victory for Chavez is quite strong - but that is no case for triumphalism on his part.

Well, if anyone wants to really investigate the coup, go to
www.venezuelasolidarity.org.uk and contact andy goodall. He has a small stockpile of the documentary "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised"

It is REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY worth it.

if you want a copy from me, telegram me with your address. (DO NOT EMAIL ME)

Anyway, if anyone has any questions for me about the Venezuela situation, please ask me, I have been researching this for a long time. Maybe I'll start a thread "Ask a person who knows a lot about Venezuela"

-Talf Yeknom

edit: This film has not been released. This is the only place you'll find it. It has taken an unusual amount of time for the distributors to release it.

Well, if anyone wants to really investigate the coup, go to
www.venezuelasolidarity.org.uk and contact andy goodall. He has a small stockpile of the documentary "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised"

It is REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY worth it.

if you want a copy from me, telegram me with your address. (DO NOT EMAIL ME)

Anyway, if anyone has any questions for me about the Venezuela situation, please ask me, I have been researching this for a long time. Maybe I'll start a thread "Ask a person who knows a lot about Venezuela"

-Talf Yeknom

Which faction in Venezuela do you support and why?
Which coup are you referring to?

Which faction in Venezuela do you support and why?
Which coup are you referring to?

Is this relevant to determining the validity of our arguments with respect to the Venezuelan government?

its doubtful the US would take any action against Venezuela at this time for a number of reasons..

first of all, Chavez is a democratically elected leader and the US has supported the Venezuelean government in putting down a couple of coup attempts over the years. Venezueala is also the source of much of the US foreign oil, with only Mexico and Canada providing more, and it would require something drastic for the US to risk that at this point, with oil prices already very high and the risk of creating more instability in the oil market is not something to be considered lightly even by Bush.

Hopefully Chavez is simply appealing to his Socialist base and upping the rhetoric for domestic reasons.

But if he provides active support to FARC, the Colombians would have every legal reason to consider that an act of war. So hopefully he doesn't. It would be a real headache for not only the US, but the entire hemisphere, and it could have a pretty nasty effect on oil prices and the global economy as a whole as if the US can't get oil from Venezueala, it will have to compete more on the open oil market, driving up prices drastically.

[QUOTE=Alien Born]Which faction in Venezuela do you support and why?
Which coup are you referring to?[/QI actually am not sure of who I support. Hugo Chavez, most likely, because he has fought really hard for the poor, and there is solid evidence of that, but also, there is a little evidence of election fraud in the last election when he won.

I am referring to the coup in April 11, 2002, when the Venezuelan business federation leader Pedro Carmona called a march on the presidential palace.

edit: This film has not been released. This is the only place you'll find it. It has taken an unusual amount of time for the distributors to release it.

Au contraire!! It's been released and shown at a variety of theatres in Toronto over the last year. Also, I'm pretty sure it was shown at Sundance, or at least some festival, but not the TIFF.

...snip...

You mean if we Email you we get a doco film on a coup in South America for free? Is this what you're saying? No postage? :confused:

Venezueala is also the source of much of the US foreign oil,

That's the point. Hugo Chavez has slowly been increasing government control over the state oil companies. That is why the US would start a war with them, to regain the oil.

Wait a minute, this sounds familiar... shortly before the war in Iraq, Saddam Hussein started to slowly gain control of the oil companies THERE....

Au contraire!! It's been released and shown at a variety of theatres in Toronto over the last year. Also, I'm pretty sure it was shown at Sundance, or at least some festival, but not the TIFF.

Well, it has not been released in the US, and is definitely not available in any video stores.

That's the point. Hugo Chavez has slowly been increasing government control over the state oil companies. That is why the US would start a war with them, to regain the oil.

Wait a minute, this sounds familiar... shortly before the war in Iraq, Saddam Hussein started to slowly gain control of the oil companies THERE....

Nope, the Iraqi oil wells had been nationalised long before the start of the war. What he SH did you was start pricing Iraqi oil in Euro in the summer of 2002. Oh, he also let in weapons inspectors who proceeded to find nothing, as predicted.

You mean if we Email you we get a doco film on a coup in South America for free? Is this what you're saying? No postage? :confused:

Hell yes. I would PAY people to watch this.... I am so desperate to spread the word.

...er... not that I would actually pay you..

Is this relevant to determining the validity of our arguments with respect to the Venezuelan government?

Which faction he or she (soory I don't know which) supports is not, it is just my curiosity. What Yeknomia calls a coup is relevant. There have been various uprisings in the last ten years in Venezuela. One of them headed by Chavez (failed) others targetting Chavez (also failed). It appears however that they were referring to a popular movement in the middle classes that attempted to unseat Chavez, and ended in the referendum.

Nope, the Iraqi oil wells had been nationalised long before the start of the war. What he SH did you was start pricing Iraqi oil in Euro in the summer of 2002. Oh, he also let in weapons inspectors who proceeded to find nothing, as predicted.

That is true. I said "Shortly" as in the 1990s, i dont remember the exact year.

Well, it has not been released in the US, and is definitely not available in any video stores.

Funny thing is that even though every time I see it on the marquee I always say "I should go and see that" but I something always comes up. I've been following Venezuela for the last couple of years, so I'm pretty sure I'm up to date on all the issues that the movie would present.

That's the point. Hugo Chavez has slowly been increasing government control over the state oil companies. That is why the US would start a war with them, to regain the oil.

Wait a minute, this sounds familiar... shortly before the war in Iraq, Saddam Hussein started to slowly gain control of the oil companies THERE....

As stated earlier. Chavez nationalising the oil production is no threat to the supply to the USA. He is not going to undermine the US dollar in the way SH did as he gains nothing by doing so.

Hell yes. I would PAY people to watch this.... I am so desperate to spread the word.

...er... not that I would actually pay you..

VHS, DVD or some other media format?

If I can play it here at home I'll telegraph you my address. ;)

VHS, DVD or some other media format?

If I can play it here at home I'll telegraph you my address. ;)

it's dvd, but i might be able to make a copy on vhs.

dvd is quicker.

Which faction he or she (soory I don't know which) supports is not, it is just my curiosity. What Yeknomia calls a coup is relevant. There have been various uprisings in the last ten years in Venezuela. One of them headed by Chavez (failed) others targetting Chavez (also failed). It appears however that they were referring to a popular movement in the middle classes that attempted to unseat Chavez, and ended in the referendum.

Oops pardon me. Sorry if I offended.

it's dvd, but i might be able to make a copy on vhs.

dvd is quicker.

DVD is fine, I'll telegraph you. :)

Venezuelas importance to the world economy

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/venez.html

an important point.. Venezuela nationalized its oil industry back in the 1960s, the big oil companies are merely junior partners in Venezuela. The problem is that the oil industry WORKERS have been on an extended strike because they don't like Chavez.

The US is not going to invade Venezuela to break a strike. If the US didn't intervene militarily back in the 1960s when the government nationalized Texaco and other oil company assets, why on earth would it do so now.

The only reason the US would intervene is if Chavez looses it and does something to trigger war with Colombia, a real concern according to one of the initial links posted.

A more likely result would be a civil war along social lines. Lets hope not, those never end well for the people.

As stated earlier. Chavez nationalising the oil production is no threat to the supply to the USA. He is not going to undermine the US dollar in the way SH did as he gains nothing by doing so.

Sorry if I'm nitpicking. While it's true that Chavez is consolidating government control over the state oil company, he is not nationalizing it.

The oil company has always been state owned. What he has done is to fire a large percentage of the executive and managerial staff after they locked out the workers - doing substantial harm to government revenue and the national economy as a whole - for over 40 days. I haven't seen an explicit statement, but it's a fair guess to say that they've been replaced with people loyal to him, or at least the government.


{/Yawn] Going to sleep now.

Look at the two posts above. One says the workers are on strike, the other says the workers were locked out. Choose your weapons gentlemen I think.

True Afrggh\oiujgfstan (Your name is impossible to remember how to spell), nationalisation is an overstatement,it is only an increase in the government control.

If Venezuela has a war, it would be with Colombia, not with the US. It would most likely be with Colombia, which has strong ties to the US gov't and the CIA. Lotsa nice drugs. There is evidence of the US trying to spark a war between them too...
http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_15280.shtml

The whole Axis of Logic > Venezuela site is very informative for what we are talking about now. Top journalists, I'd say.

Alien Born, what is YOUR view on your rowdy neighbor Senor Chavez?
i like cheese
(sorry bout the double post)
well, going to bed now. I'll check this thread in the morning.

Alien Born, what is YOUR view on your rowdy neighbor Senor Chavez?
i like cheese
(sorry bout the double post)
well, going to bed now. I'll check this thread in the morning.

My personal view is that I don't like, nor trust him. He is a lot to theatrical for my taste, and my politics run to the right of centre economically rather than to the left as his do. I am a little concerned about the anti criticism actions that he has taken very recently. Freedom of the press is an essential part of the democratic process. I also think that he has been unwise in some of his appointments, and Venezuela will pay financially for the incompetence of some people.

However, I do think that the "status quo" in Venezuela, as in most Latin American countries needs to be shaken every so often. This shaking is rather more violent than it has been here in Brazil with Lula or in Argentina with Kirchner, but the disparity was probably greater.

My real concerns are with the intentions of the USA with respect to such a left wing figure in what they like to think of as their back yard. I defend the right of the Venezuelan, or any other people to choose who they want as their ruler.

(The big problem with democracy is that it does not always produce the result that you would personally choose. However just having the choice makes this a worthwhile risk.)

first of all, Chavez is a democratically elected leader and the US has supported the Venezuelean government in putting down a couple of coup attempts over the years.
Actually, it's the opposite, the U.S. has supported a couple of coup attempts against Chavez over the years.

I going on holiday to venezuala in 2006, I'm not going to get shot am I?

Chavez will probably plan on staging his own auto-coup like Allende planned to do on September 19, 1973 (but of course, the military intervened, and not a moment too soon), as an opportunity to purge all opposition and establish a totalitarian communist state.

Chavez will probably plan on staging his own auto-coup like Allende planned to do on September 19, 1973 (but of course, the military intervened, and not a moment too soon), as an opportunity to purge all opposition and establish a totalitarian communist state.

The level of evidence and factual support for this post is astoundingly absent in this world. Which one are you living in?

I could as easily and with as much justification say that Bush is probably planning an equivalent of the Reichstag fire and will make himself a right wing dictator of a totalitarian state. See: it just does not make a good argument does it? Try some evidence. Try some facts.

I going on holiday to venezuala in 2006, I'm not going to get shot am I?

It is a lot less likely than it would be in some other countries (Somewhat to the North and a little to the West of Venezuela). It is not, however, impossible. But it is also not impossible to be shot in Lyme Regis, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.
2006, however is when the next presidential election is due there, so it may be a little heated.

Actually, it's the opposite, the U.S. has supported a couple of coup attempts against Chavez over the years.

although that has been alleged, no mainstream news media organization has reported that, nor has any proof been provided to English speaking mainstream media outlets (and they would have reported valid evidence provided to a Spanish speaking outlet, as in many cases both are owned by the same media companies), and for that matter, if the CIA can't find Ibn Laden, what makes you think it can overthrow a popularly elected President in Venezuela?