NationStates Jolt Archive

I've been studying the effects of a nightmare scenario: an eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, USA.

Picture this:

Some 640,000 years ago the rumblings of an impending volcanic eruption sounded ominously across the Yellowstone country. Suddenly, in a mighty crescendo of deafening explosions, tremendous quantities of hot volcanic ash and pumice spewed from giant cracks at the earth's surface. Towering dust clouds blackened the sky, and vast sheets of volcanic debris spread out rapidly across the countryside in all directions, covering thousands of square miles in a matter of minutes with a blanket of utter devastation. Abruptly, a great smoldering caldera 30 miles across, 45 miles long, and several thousand feet deep - appeared in the central Yellowstone region, the ground having fallen into the huge underground cavern that was left by the earth shaking eruptions. Lava then began oozing from the cracks to fill the still smoking caldera. The third known supervolcano eruption of Yellowstone had occurred. The first two occurred 2 million and 1.2 million years ago. This frequency suggests a recurrence rate of one eruption approximately every 600,000 years. When Yellowstone erupts again, if it does, poses not only a general problem with forecasting but also a possible global threatening crisis. This paper will explore some of the problems with the long range forecasting of such a catastrophic eruption.

What would be the impact of such an eruption today?

"When Yellowstone goes off again, and it will, it will be a disaster for the United States and eventually, for the whole world. We volcanologists believe it would all begin with the magma chamber becoming unstable. Observations would begin by seeing bigger earthquakes, greater uplifting as magma intrudes and gets nearer and nearer the surface. An earthquake may send a rupture through a brittle layer similar to breaking the lid off a pressure cooker. This would generate sheets of magma, which will perhaps rise up to 30, 40 or 50 kilometers sending gigantic amounts of debris into the atmosphere. Pyroclastic flows would cover the whole region, killing tens of thousands of people in the surrounding area."

"The ash carried in the atmosphere and deposited over vast areas of the United States would have devastating effects. A plume of material that goes up into the atmosphere, globally, from the eruption would produce the climatic effects. This would spread worldwide and have a cooling effect that would most likely destroy the growing season on a global scale."

"The eruption will throw out cubic kilometers of rock, ash, dust, sulfur dioxide and so on into the upper atmosphere, where it will reflect incoming solar radiation, forcing down temperatures on the earth’s surface. It would be the equivalent of a nuclear winter. The effects would last for four or five years with crops failing and the whole ecosystem breaking down."

So when can we expect this catastrophe?

"Yellowstone Park had last been surveyed in the 1920s when the elevation, the height above sea-level, was measured at various points across Yellowstone. 50 years later, Dr. R. B. Smith surveyed the same points. Smith stated “ The idea was to survey their elevations and to compare the elevations in the mid-70s to what they were in 1923 and the type of thing that we did is to make recordings at a precision level of a few millimetres.” The two sets of figures should have been similar, but as the survey team moved across the Park, they noticed something unexpected: the ground seemed to be heaving upwards. The results of the survey indicated that this caldera has uplifted at that time 740 millimetres in the middle of the caldera. As the measuring continued, it became apparent that the ground beneath the north of Yellowstone was bulging up, tilting the rest of the Yellowstone Park downwards. As we venture into the 21st century, once again the Yellowstone caldera appears to be on the uplift swing of the cycle."

( Read the whole article at: http://exodus2006.com/yellow.htm )

So basically we're doomed? Ok, I can deal with that.

for those with access to it, BBC1 is showing a couple of programs about it over the weekend

heres an article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4326987.stm) thats on the main BBC news page today....

The effects <of the volcano>, say the authors, "could be sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilisation" - putting events such as the Asian tsunami into the shade.

The fallout from a super-eruption could cause a "volcanic winter", devastating global agriculture and causing mass starvation.

High frequency

It would have a similar effect to a 1.5km-diameter space rock striking Earth, they claim.

:eek: i remember seeing a documentary about this some years back - it will blow and it will be bad :(


great, another thing to worry about :p

Maybe we could nuke it preemptively. Would that help?

So basically we're doomed? Ok, I can deal with that.
This is one of those few problems which cannot be solved with 500 lbs of C-4 and 1,000 feet of detcord! Distressing to an old soldier. :(

its all george bush's fault!

not only THAT but there is an excellent chance for a huge earthquake centered around st louis that would devastate the whole mississippi river corridor. there was one in ~1811 that changed the course of the river, made it flow BACKWARDS for a while and destroyed most all villages that existed along the mississippi at that time. with the number of highly dangersous chemical/petrochemical storage and transport along the river, it would be an almost unimaginable catastrophe.

Maybe we could nuke it preemptively. Would that help?
Yeah, if you think that adding radioactive material to the existing witch's brew would be "helpful!" :headbang:

dont worry too much if you live in the eastern US though, the tsunami from that canary island might have killed you first

I saw a program on this. I think it was on the Discovery channel. They found that it blew ash all the way to like Nebraska. It is actually kinda scary.

Maybe we could nuke it preemptively. Would that help?
Glad I'm not the only one who thought of this. Perhaps a multi-gigaton nuke detonated as far underground as we could put it.

Yeah, if you think that adding radioactive material to the existing witch's brew would be "helpful!" :headbang:
Couldn't hurt.

its all george bush's fault!

not only THAT but there is an excellent chance for a huge earthquake centered around st louis that would devastate the whole mississippi river corridor. there was one in ~1811 that changed the course of the river, made it flow BACKWARDS for a while and destroyed most all villages that existed along the mississippi at that time. with the number of highly dangersous chemical/petrochemical storage and transport along the river, it would be an almost unimaginable catastrophe.
Bye-bye St. Louis and New Orleans, not to mention all the other towns and cities along the Mississippi! Groan! Why did I even start this thread? :headbang:

Yeah, if you think that adding radioactive material to the existing witch's brew would be "helpful!" :headbang:
Fusion nukes leave very, very little lasting radiation.

I saw a program on this. I think it was on the Discovery channel. They found that it blew ash all the way to like Nebraska. It is actually kinda scary.
Not to mention all the ash and smoke into the upper atmosphere, where it will stay for like 4 years and destroy almost all crops world-wide. :(

its all george bush's fault!

not only THAT but there is an excellent chance for a huge earthquake centered around st louis that would devastate the whole mississippi river corridor. there was one in ~1811 that changed the course of the river, made it flow BACKWARDS for a while and destroyed most all villages that existed along the mississippi at that time. with the number of highly dangersous chemical/petrochemical storage and transport along the river, it would be an almost unimaginable catastrophe.
that earthquake made church bells ring in boston. no joke. tectonic muckings about are so fucking cool.

sidenote to the aged fellow: hello. i am going to ask you this every time i see you, henceforth, because it amuses me to do so, and your currrent situation very much decreases any chance of your killing me. How's the leg, oldy? :D

For more good news please visit
www.exitmundi.nl/

Fusion nukes leave very, very little lasting radiation.
Even if nuking it would help, imagine the political fallout. And you think people hate G. W. Bush now? Ha! :headbang:

I saw a program on this. I think it was on the Discovery channel. They found that it blew ash all the way to like Nebraska. It is actually kinda scary.
the dust cloud from mount st. helens blew all the way past maine. took down at least one comercial aircraft along the way.

The Mississippi is going to bypass New Orleans soon anyway (check out the red river damn).

Yellowstone is the largest valcano to ever have blown, as far as we know, and that ash deposited in Nebraska - how bout 12 feet deep! Ash actually made it all the way to New England, and the ash cloud would circle the globe bringing a true nuclear winter.

Booming a nuke wouldn't do any good - the action is too deep.

Robert Frost:
Fire and Ice


SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

Even if nuking it would help, imagine the political fallout. And you think people hate G. W. Bush now? Ha! :headbang:
oh geez we'd have to wait until HILLARY gets elected.

For more good news please visit
www.exitmundi.nl/
Great Site! I added it to my favorites. Thanks! :)

Great Site! I added it to my favorites. Thanks! :)You're welcome. I think I found out about it on this message board a few months ago.

You're welcome. I think I found out about it on this message board a few months ago.
And people think things will just go on as before! As if! We live in a universe which is dangerous for humans and other small mammals. If we start preparing for some of these scenarios now, some of us might just survivie. Start stocking up on canned goods and bottled water! :)

Hmm. Can you imagine a world where only NSers had the foresight to prepare and thus the only ones to survive?

NSer 1: It's all Bush's fault!

NSer 2: You liberal commie-nazi! It's the fault of all the damned lefties!

NSer 3: Fuck you guys! I'm going to eat some canned spam and drink some bottled water and not give you nitwits any!

:D

Then we'd all get together to have a popularity contest or a beauty contest and all would be well. Until someone brought up religion.

Then we'd all get together to have a popularity contest or a beauty contest and all would be well. Until someone brought up religion.
Hehehe! EXACTLY! :D

Hey! Wassamatta? You guys ain't 'fraid of a lil ole end of the world scenario, iz ya???

Hey! Wassamatta? You guys ain't 'fraid of a lil ole end of the world scenario, iz ya???
isn't wassamatta also a city somewhere in new england? i really hope it is.

and maybe i'll answer your question when you answer my first one. Up yonder^^^^^^^. do it. you crazed septo-genarian!

Nature eradicating the U.S. And some people thought the U.S. empire would last forever *cackle* Still, the time when this happens might be within the next 1-100.000 years. Most likely, none of us will witness this and until it happens, mankind will be technologically advanced enough to prevent this from happening. And if not, too bad for the U.S. And too bad for many other countries. We'd have to do large scale indoor-agriculture, that would be interesting.

I've been studying the effects of a nightmare scenario: an eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, USA.

Picture this:

Some 640,000 years ago the rumblings of an impending volcanic eruption sounded ominously across the Yellowstone country. Suddenly, in a mighty crescendo of deafening explosions, tremendous quantities of hot volcanic ash and pumice spewed from giant cracks at the earth's surface. Towering dust clouds blackened the sky, and vast sheets of volcanic debris spread out rapidly across the countryside in all directions, covering thousands of square miles in a matter of minutes with a blanket of utter devastation. Abruptly, a great smoldering caldera 30 miles across, 45 miles long, and several thousand feet deep - appeared in the central Yellowstone region, the ground having fallen into the huge underground cavern that was left by the earth shaking eruptions. Lava then began oozing from the cracks to fill the still smoking caldera. The third known supervolcano eruption of Yellowstone had occurred. The first two occurred 2 million and 1.2 million years ago. This frequency suggests a recurrence rate of one eruption approximately every 600,000 years. When Yellowstone erupts again, if it does, poses not only a general problem with forecasting but also a possible global threatening crisis. This paper will explore some of the problems with the long range forecasting of such a catastrophic eruption.

What would be the impact of such an eruption today?

"When Yellowstone goes off again, and it will, it will be a disaster for the United States and eventually, for the whole world. We volcanologists believe it would all begin with the magma chamber becoming unstable. Observations would begin by seeing bigger earthquakes, greater uplifting as magma intrudes and gets nearer and nearer the surface. An earthquake may send a rupture through a brittle layer similar to breaking the lid off a pressure cooker. This would generate sheets of magma, which will perhaps rise up to 30, 40 or 50 kilometers sending gigantic amounts of debris into the atmosphere. Pyroclastic flows would cover the whole region, killing tens of thousands of people in the surrounding area."

"The ash carried in the atmosphere and deposited over vast areas of the United States would have devastating effects. A plume of material that goes up into the atmosphere, globally, from the eruption would produce the climatic effects. This would spread worldwide and have a cooling effect that would most likely destroy the growing season on a global scale."

"The eruption will throw out cubic kilometers of rock, ash, dust, sulfur dioxide and so on into the upper atmosphere, where it will reflect incoming solar radiation, forcing down temperatures on the earth’s surface. It would be the equivalent of a nuclear winter. The effects would last for four or five years with crops failing and the whole ecosystem breaking down."

So when can we expect this catastrophe?

"Yellowstone Park had last been surveyed in the 1920s when the elevation, the height above sea-level, was measured at various points across Yellowstone. 50 years later, Dr. R. B. Smith surveyed the same points. Smith stated “ The idea was to survey their elevations and to compare the elevations in the mid-70s to what they were in 1923 and the type of thing that we did is to make recordings at a precision level of a few millimetres.” The two sets of figures should have been similar, but as the survey team moved across the Park, they noticed something unexpected: the ground seemed to be heaving upwards. The results of the survey indicated that this caldera has uplifted at that time 740 millimetres in the middle of the caldera. As the measuring continued, it became apparent that the ground beneath the north of Yellowstone was bulging up, tilting the rest of the Yellowstone Park downwards. As we venture into the 21st century, once again the Yellowstone caldera appears to be on the uplift swing of the cycle."

( Read the whole article at: http://exodus2006.com/yellow.htm )


hmmmm good, with the lack of resourses only the strong would survive, weeding out the weak and deformed to the overall betterment of mankind.

hmmmm good, with the lack of resourses only the strong would survive, weeding out the weak and deformed to the overall betterment of mankind.
nature's own eugenics program. yay! ;)

:eek: i remember seeing a documentary about this some years back - it will blow and it will be bad :(


great, another thing to worry about :p

Really now.

I have seen the documentary a couple of times myself and I believe the projected eruption would not happen within most of our lifetimes.

So why is this a problem for you?

What a bunch of alarmists...

Really now.

I have seen the documentary a couple of times myself and I believe the projected eruption would not happen within most of our lifetimes.

So why is this a problem for you?

What a bunch of alarmists...
But, but, Won't somebody please think of the children!

let me tell you, am i glad that the bomb shelter, hundreds of gallons of water, gas masks, and k rations i had for the millenium wont go to waste. *phew*

really though, i hope no one is actually worried about this, are they? of course it could happen, but also, you get be killed by a bus next wednesday. then, all that stress wouldnt matter, now would it?

that brings something to mind- Nostradamus must have had one hell of an ulcer.....

let me tell you, am i glad that the bomb shelter, hundreds of gallons of water, gas masks, and k rations i had for the millenium wont go to waste. *phew*

really though, i hope no one is actually worried about this, are they? of course it could happen, but also, you get be killed by a bus next wednesday. then, all that stress wouldnt matter, now would it?

that brings something to mind- Nostradamus must have had one hell of an ulcer.....
ok, lets say i do get killed by a bus next wednesday. would you mind coming out to chicago and reassembling my skull?

nature's own eugenics program. yay! ;)

The people who surivive would be super men and be able to kick a tiger's ass. DIE TIGER DIE

we should make action figures. with push-button BUMPING ACTION!

Really now.

I have seen the documentary a couple of times myself and I believe the projected eruption would not happen within most of our lifetimes.

So why is this a problem for you?

What a bunch of alarmists...

Really?!?!

I have seen it a couple of times myself, and it says nothing of the sort.

It actually states that an event has happened there every 600,000 or so years, and it's been over that amount of time now, by about 40,000 years, so it actually seems to suggest that we are about due...

http://www.solcomhouse.com/yellowstone.htm

It also shows that the ground is moving there rather quickly, actually changing the shape of a lake there, submerging trees on one end of the lake.

So I wouldn't be so sure about it not happening in our Lifetimes, if I were you...

Unless of course you aren't going to be around much longer... :rolleyes:

Regards,
Gaar

It was either the discovery channel or national geographic that had a story on this MONTHS ago.