NationStates Jolt Archive

Coalition Combat Deaths Falling In Iraq
Philadelphia Inquirer - Free Registration Required ( FEB. 22)

The number of coalition military forces killed by hostile actions has declined significantly since Iraq's Jan. 30 elections, according to military officials. As of yesterday, the 28 coalition forces killed from hostile fire or roadside bombs in February represented the lowest fatality rate since last March, according to iCasualties.org. The daily average of 1.33 soldiers killed in hostile actions after the elections compares with 2.42 during the previous 10 months, based on Inquirer calculations. Officials say Iraqi insurgents seem to be targeting Iraqi armed forces and civilians with greater frequency. They also say American soldiers are benefiting from improved intelligence since the election, they are getting more tips from Iraqis. "Our commanders in the field are telling us that they have seen some level of attitude change within the country, all very positive," Lt. Gen. Lance Smith, the deputy commander of the U.S. Central Command, told reporters at the Pentagon recently.

It's not a trend yet. January was one hell of a month for casualties.

Don't do the stupid thing that McNamara did and count bodies. That's why he lost the war.

You should try and see what behavioral changes the insurgents have been forced to adopt.

Can they openly mass and attack US forces in small arms combat as the Viet Cong did in Vietnam?

Nope. Not without being wiped out like they were in Fallujah.

What types of attacks can they conduct against US troops?

Random roadside bombs that kill more Iraqis than US troops.

Can the insurgents control the whole country, as the Viet Cong seemingly did?

No. They control limited areas in the Sunni triangle. They risk death in the Kurdish or Shiite areas.

Could the insurgents conceivably win a propaganda victory against the US by inflicting enough casualties to make the US public call for a withdrawal?

Not anymore.

I dont think it really matters if the USA puls out now or later, that country will degenerate into a leb style civil war no matter how many Iraqi trained troops are around.

Sunni Arabs were conned by their leaders into not participating in the election. Because of that the Shia and Kurds are going to write the constitution. The Sunni Arabs are afraid that they will be marginalized, and now seek to attack the Iraqi government in order to foment civil war. They won't attack the Americans directly because they suffer horrific losses if they try. If the Shia can be armed and trained to suppress the insurgency long enough for the next election to take place the Sunni Arabs might wise up and vote. If so the insurgency will shrivel and die. If not, civil war will continue for some time.

I dont think it really matters if the USA puls out now or later, that country will degenerate into a leb style civil war no matter how many Iraqi trained troops are around.

I doubt it. The Sunnis will be too weak to be able to do anything, having been exhausted by their fight with the US (where they lost huge numbers of men).

The Shiites, Kurds, and any moderate Sunnis will comprise members of the Iraqi Army. Who will see the government as their meal ticket. Who will want to screw over anyone who wants a return to Baathism.

Bad day to be a Sunni, ex-Baath insurgent in Iraq. Especially since the last car bomb you set off killed 40 of your own people.

Coalition Combat Deaths Falling In Iraq
Philadelphia Inquirer - Free Registration Required ( FEB. 22)

The number of coalition military forces killed by hostile actions has declined significantly since Iraq's Jan. 30 elections, according to military officials. As of yesterday, the 28 coalition forces killed from hostile fire or roadside bombs in February represented the lowest fatality rate since last March, according to iCasualties.org. The daily average of 1.33 soldiers killed in hostile actions after the elections compares with 2.42 during the previous 10 months, based on Inquirer calculations. Officials say Iraqi insurgents seem to be targeting Iraqi armed forces and civilians with greater frequency. They also say American soldiers are benefiting from improved intelligence since the election, they are getting more tips from Iraqis. "Our commanders in the field are telling us that they have seen some level of attitude change within the country, all very positive," Lt. Gen. Lance Smith, the deputy commander of the U.S. Central Command, told reporters at the Pentagon recently.
These are based on 3 weeks of data since the election? Not exactly a trend, considering that Nov. 2004 was the worst month and Jan. 2005 was the 3rd worst month?

http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx

I also believe that the figures very depending on source? The one I see states 44 deaths so far this month, or an average of 2 per day.

These are based on 3 weeks of data since the election? Not exactly a trend, considering that Nov. 2004 was the worst month and Jan. 2005 was the 3rd worst month?

http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx

I also believe that the figures very depending on source? The one I see states 44 deaths so far this month, or an average of 2 per day.

See my post #2 in this thread.

Don't count bodies. That's what McNamara did. Just assess what the insurgents are capable of.

They aren't capable of doing much anymore, and I believe that the Iraqi people by and large know that.

Yes, they can blow people up, but they can't dislodge the US troops, and can't fight them directly anymore. They lost that ability in Fallujah.

When they set off the roadside bombs, which are the main way to cause US casualties now, they invariably kill far more Iraqis than they do US troops.

Not a good public relations move, if you ask me.

See my post #2 in this thread.

Don't count bodies. That's what McNamara did. Just assess what the insurgents are capable of.

They aren't capable of doing much anymore, and I believe that the Iraqi people by and large know that.

Yes, they can blow people up, but they can't dislodge the US troops, and can't fight them directly anymore. They lost that ability in Fallujah.

When they set off the roadside bombs, which are the main way to cause US casualties now, they invariably kill far more Iraqis than they do US troops.

Not a good public relations move, if you ask me.

Agreed my Whispering Legs. It isn't a good public relations move. They won't stop however.

Oh, yeah. The headline's all about "coalition forces," but in the article it's "America this, U.S. that."

What about my Polish brothers? We lost one guy in December 2003, but in December 2004, three Poles laid down their lives. That's not the direction progress is supposed to go. As far as I can tell, that's American casualties falling while Polish forces step in to take up the slack.

But you maybee need to see it as a more complex issue. Like for example that terrorist atack against civils can of course make the population turn against the terrorist, but they can also turn the population against the americans because they don't feel that they protect them or even that they think that the atacks just occur because USA is still in the country.

Also the issue with the sunnis, there many know think of them as bad guy and terrorists and also condemn large parts of that population as undemocratic because they didn't vote. Even if many of the people who didn't vote don't support the terrorit but instead was scared for there lives, because of the terrorist atacks. There you can see a victory for the terrorist; the marganization of the sunnis both by scaring them from taking part in the new goverment and also by picturing them as a bad guys, making a good ground for future problems.

And also the facts that even if the Iraqs don't support the terrorist and want to have a democratic process, they can also dislike the american know or later if they see them standing a way for the things they want. Like for example that USA and the first American installed goverment have pushed for a neo-liberal pro business agenda, while the biggest party in the election won with almost a socialist agenda with demands for nationalizing of oil and that the basic needs of evry Iraqie should be taken care of.