NationStates Jolt Archive

Empires have come and gone through the ages. They rise to there zenith to only get crushed by there own weight. So with that said. What are some of the predictions from all you scholars out there on the national life span of our current system. BTW how long was Romes reign? At least until it was split into the eastern and western empires? ( to lazy to go and look)

Rome started at about 625 B.C. (but wasnt a major power until the punic wars, so they were not a major power until aound 260 B.C. or so) Last Emperor was in 476 A.D.

All empires do fall eventually. Except America.

Why?
Because we fuckin' rule.

And I'm sure the Romans said the same thing.

And I'm sure the Romans said the same thing.

They probably did. But they were pagans. Jesus hates pagans.

Jesus loves America. And that's why we will never fall.

Well, we're already going through the "Christians fuck it up" stage that Rome had (as we were founded by deists, atheists, satanists, and other interesting folks...), and China's already looking like the next big thing...

Well, we're already going through the "Christians fuck it up" stage that Rome had (as we were founded by deists, atheists, satanists, and other interesting folks...), and China's already looking like the next big thing...

Only until their communist state collapses onto its own beurocracy... Its already running rampent with corruption, what happens when their living of standard begins to rise (an inevitabilty from their tremendous growth) .. History tells us as living standards rise, so does the desire for more freedoms.. China may soon suffer the same change Russia endured

Well the US really hasn't been a superpower until WWI & WWII. If you look at the more modern superpowers in history (ie. Britain, France, Spain...those guys) i'm thinking another 50 years at the most. But it wasn't one day the British ruled the world and the next day some new guy took over, it happenned over time. I think over the next 50 years the US will phase out an China will take over.

In regards to China, yeah. Exactly. But that's WHY they're looking to be the next big thing. Unlike Russia, they're working TOWARDS capitalism, intentionally, prior to years of war.

When China's people start taking a greater hold of their country, they'll be in a much better position to make USE of it.

Never said "Red China" would be the next thing, just China.

Exactly. Communism isn't a way of government, it is more of a stepping stone between some faciest-anarchy (???) towards a socially responding capitalist state. Russia just keeps tripping on that stepping stone, thats all....

They probably did. But they were pagans. Jesus hates pagans.

Jesus loves America. And that's why we will never fall.


actually, Rome wouldn't have been pagan, since the word that the Romans used, meant, Country Dweller, so Jesus would have been the pagan. Its only by modern meanings, after the word was changed by the Catholics to mean anyone not Christian, and then it shifted a bit again to mean, anyone not muslim, jewish or christian.... so by your words..Jesus hated himself?

actually, Rome wouldn't have been pagan, since the word that the Romans used, meant, Country Dweller, so Jesus would have been the pagan. Its only by modern meanings, after the word was changed by the Catholics to mean anyone not Christian, and then it shifted a bit again to mean, anyone not muslim, jewish or christian.... so by your words..Jesus hated himself?

Hush with that historical jargon.

America is the greatest country that ever will (and always will) exist.

Hush with that historical jargon.

America is the greatest country that ever will (and always will) exist.

no, every body knows that the greatest country on the earth was the land of Nod, but then the vampires and demons came....ok, nevermind..

America is great, but its by far anything that will last forever....maybe awhile, and it may spawn into a greater nation someday, though its going downhill right now I'd say, but it might make it to some revolutions and reform...who knows.

Technically, since so many fundies are living in the mountains.. they're STILL a bunch of pagans and heathens. :D

Technically, since so many fundies are living in the mountains.. they're STILL a bunch of pagans and heathens. :D

you know, you made me realize something...

most small town rural places are the places where fundies live and grow. They live in farming towns and such, or in the mountains and the like, and they are happy doing it.

Then, most 'pagans' live in cities, where they live everyday life, and practice their beliefs in private and with their groups, all the while living and interacting with the city.

So the pagans, based on its old meaning, are the Christians, and the Non-Pagans, are the other people, living in Cities and such.

hmmm, I think thats funny.

I'm thinking the U.S. itself will last for a few hundred more years, and will still be important in politics(Example: France stopped being a superpower in 1815, but it's still important today), but I believe that our place as "top dog" will be taken by the Chinese.

What I think will happen is the U.S. and China will go to war over Taiwan, China will be beaten(but not utterly beaten), and the people of China will go "Hey! We need a change of government if we are ever going to beat those western dogs!" , so they will speed up democracy. Then we'll go to war, the U.S. will be defeated by a slight margin, and then the balance of power will shift to China.

Of course, the Chinese will then have to compete with the Indians. Within 20 or so years India will have more people, but if China gets Pakistan(it's ally) to help them defeat the Indians, then China can secure it's place.

Don't you just love it when a posterior-hole country comes into a respectible thread and turns it into broiled crap?

*cough*Gorloq*cough*

you know, you made me realize something...

most small town rural places are the places where fundies live and grow. They live in farming towns and such, or in the mountains and the like, and they are happy doing it.

Then, most 'pagans' live in cities, where they live everyday life, and practice their beliefs in private and with their groups, all the while living and interacting with the city.

So the pagans, based on its old meaning, are the Christians, and the Non-Pagans, are the other people, living in Cities and such.

hmmm, I think thats funny.

Yep.

The witches all went urban (There ARE country wiccans, but they seem to be the minority, and mostly just the older ones who're trying to avoid the hustle and bustle), and the hyper-Christians retreated to the hills where its easier to find good shooting ranges (I've been to an obviously Militia-ish range... this one guy was doing some stuff with a POWERFUL pistol that looked like it was out of a movie.. and they had Soddom targets...).

Of course, you realize, we've already seen this pattern.

Pre-Fundie Middle East= Educated Society that built wonderful cities and invented Algebra
Post-Fundie Middle East= Uneducated Society that lives in caves and likes to blow things up.

Empires have come and gone through the ages. They rise to there zenith to only get crushed by there own weight. So with that said. What are some of the predictions from all you scholars out there on the national life span of our current system. BTW how long was Romes reign? At least until it was split into the eastern and western empires? ( to lazy to go and look)

Due to immigration, growing social burden, rising China and a few other things I'll Pin America's "Zenith" as 1990ish-2002ish and that we will be replaced by China by 2060 and that America will start to actually dissolve into separate Nations or at least break down and become something new and different by 2200.

The trouble is we're working on time spans of a few decades/hundred years+ in a time when technology changes and develops so much in so little time that my entire perception of the future could change in less than a year given the right developments.

Yep.

The witches all went urban (There ARE country wiccans, but they seem to be the minority, and mostly just the older ones who're trying to avoid the hustle and bustle), and the hyper-Christians retreated to the hills where its easier to find good shooting ranges (I've been to an obviously Militia-ish range... this one guy was doing some stuff with a POWERFUL pistol that looked like it was out of a movie.. and they had Soddom targets...).

Of course, you realize, we've already seen this pattern.

Pre-Fundie Middle East= Educated Society that invented Algebra
Post-Fundie Middle East= Uneducated Society that likes to blow things up.

E-GADS!

That means we are going to turn into...

people who sit on the couch and watch T.V. all day! Wait...WE ALREADY DO!

AHHH!!!

Nah. What it really means is we need to get them some LAN party systems so they can blow up things in DOOM instead.

You will fall one day and you will fall hard.
Nothing lasts.

I will answer this question on April 17th, 2009 and not a moment before.

What you need here is a bookie. I'll give even odds at 150 years.

America is as durable as any nation can be that is ethnically heterogeneous. I tend to think America will morph itself into something larger encompassing some of the neighboring states in some federal structure, but that won't begin for another thirty to seventy years.

Isn't there supposed to be something happen in 2012? The Mayan end of the Universe, or something?

Ok, there's my bet: 2012. America has seven years left. But then again, so do we all. I sure hope Bob hurries up with those 'pleasure saucers'.

I'd hate to still be here for the end of the Universe.

That's a complicated question. It's common to compare Rome to the United States, as Rome once occupied the position that the United States, in some ways, now occupies. But there are several key differences in the two that I think are very important to recognize; they invalidate the reasoning that simply because Rome fell, so must the United States. Also, I would note that the fall of Rome itself is difficult to pinpoint; the western empire fell roughly 1300 years before the eastern empire did. Technically, the Roman Empire finally collapsed during WWI.

How is the U.S. different from Rome?

First of all, Rome primarily fell due to corruption. The government was extremely corrupt, and on a certain level business was as well [though not nearly as bad]. In addition, there was a "brain drain" on public service; by the time of Livy (~30 B.C., I think?), many thought that if one were to go into politics, one would only be corrupted, and therefore be unable to do the Roman State any good. As the centuries passed, only men of lesser intelligence and merit entered into public service; no more Ciceros.

I would say that while there is a level of corruption in the United States government - as is natural, I must sadly conclude - that it is not nearly as bad as Rome, and I don't foresee it becoming a problem. Because of the representative democracy that our nation uses, we should be able to avoid the level of corruption and "brain drain" that Rome fell to.

Second, the state of the world is entirely different. There are no barbarians, so to speak, who will invade the U.S. and destroy it's civilization. Yes, there are madmen with nukes, but that's more along the lines of an apocalypse. In addition, communication, transportation and economics is FAR more complicated and certainly more global. Everyone is connected to everyone in such a way that no nation really falls; it just gets a new name and a new government. Such was not the case after Rome fell and was carved into so many lesser states. It's really in everyone's best interests for America to continue to exist, if not as a superpower, at least as a power. So you won't catch the Canadians invading anytime soon.

Third, part of the problem Rome had was that it simply grew too large. The central government in Rome was originally designed to govern a small city, and now all of Europe and Asia Minor was in grasp! The beauracracy was staggeringly complicated and quite ineffective, and the system of alliances was ridiculously difficult to maintain, even with provinicial governors taken into account. And still, it continued to expand; because of the nature of Rome's economics and way of governance, it was forced to be in a state of constant expansion; once it stopped expanding, it would wither and die, or so the thinking went. America doesn't, for the moment, possess that problem. Our government is shaped in such a way that local governments can handle many of the problems they face, and the federal government need only deal with problems facing the nation as a whole as well as issues of foreign policy. This streamlines the government considerably, when compared to Rome. In addition, America isn't expanding anymore. There's no where to expand. There'd have to be a war. Regardless, it isn't neccessary for the U.S. to be at war and to conquer other states in order to exist [although you could possibly make an argument for conquering oil-rich nations], and so it won't be hiring barbarian mercenaries who sack the capital when they don't get paid anytime soon.

So there you go. Just a few of the ways in which it's folly to compare Rome to America based on a superficial evaluation of what it means to be a superpower.

How long do I think it'll last? No way to tell. The world is always changing.

Alas.. your first point....

We're working our way towards it.

It's hard to get in to office unless you're a corrupt puppet.

Hang on. I thought politics and corruption were the same thing.

:D Heh, it's a young nation yet, as the rest of the world loves to point out. ;) 'Lousy upstarts, telling us what to do when we're hundreds -- no, thousands -- of years older than they are!'

Looking for its demise already -- history might suggest that's just wishful thinking? ;)

Rome started at about 625 B.C. (but wasnt a major power until the punic wars, so they were not a major power until aound 260 B.C. or so) Last Emperor was in 476 A.D.

But the Eastern Roman Empire became Byzantium and lasted until 1453.
Ironically it was ruled by the Crusaders from 1204-1261, who effectively killed it off as a major power.

I don't think the US will "fall" but it will be surpassed, and I think that will happen between 50 to 100 years from now

Well...I suspect that the government of the United States will be overthrown and replaced by a Christian Theocracy sometime around 2055. Revolution against that government will likely occur sometime between 2080 and 2110. By that point, the nation will likely split into several smaller nations...probably about 6-8 total, that vary in political styles.

These nations will not be "allied" as Europe is. They will be competitors and rivals...and in some cases, enemies.

I'd like to reiterate one of the points Trammwerk made...

Empires fall because they are just that, empires...

The United States is not an empire...

An empire is a collective of conquered lands that are subjugated to a central governing force... The majority of land in an empire is occupied land... It is made up of citizens of once-sovereign countries, that have been forced to live under the rule of an invading country...

It takes incredible governmental and military strength to hold this together... You've got to keep all of these various conquered peoples, conquered, and trust your underlings to help keep them down and under your control...

America is not like that at all... The people of this country are not citizens of other countries that the U.S. government is trying to rule over... They are not subjugated people, looking for a way to throw off the chains of oppression, and once again live as a soveriegn nation...

So America will not fall as all other empires have fallen, because we are not an empire...

Now, that is not to say that nothing will change... I highly doubt we'll remain the top dog forever, or even that our country will remain exactly as it is forever...

But, we're not going to dissolve in revolution...

America is an empire. It's been running around the world using it's corporations to subjicate other nations via economic means to extend it's reach and it's really trigger happy (like Rome) when there's no compliance.

However, the empire is crumbling as China finally starts waking up and it's economic influence is getting more powerful by the day. The US refuses to sell China weapons while the EU has lifted it's embago. The US is scared of China.

America is an empire. It's been running around the world using it's corporations to subjicate other nations via economic means to extend it's reach and it's really trigger happy (like Rome) when there's no compliance.

However, the empire is crumbling as China finally starts waking up and it's economic influence is getting more powerful by the day. The US refuses to sell China weapons while the EU has lifted it's embago. The US is scared of China.

Why would we be scared of China? Cause they have 1.3 billion people? A nuclear weapon can vaporize 1 million or 1 billion it doesnt matter. But hopefully a war wouldnt ever break out. I am personally not even bothered by them. About time we got some real competition.

As far as national comparisons. The US and China are roughly the same size geographically. I am certain that the US has more natural resources. The US has a global monetary lock down that China has to compete in. The US culture output will never be matched by China. The sustainable population in the US is greatly higher than China. China population is nearing its resources breaking point. While the US could concievably feed the whole world of 6.5 billion if all its farm land is pressed into service. Thats a dept of Agri fact.
So all you worriers about somehow the US is going to be passed up by a overbloated chinese tiger. I say just hang in there. Dont worry, be happy.

*cough* *Cough*

My personal take on this is that soon the US will have such a commanding technological lead that it will remain the premier world power for many years to come, eventually morphing into a world government.

Film at eleven.

My personal take on this is that soon the US will have such a commanding technological lead that it will remain the premier world power for many years to come, eventually morphing into a world government.

Film at eleven.


Yes, I agree. It is a scary thought if you ask me.

But the Eastern Roman Empire became Byzantium and lasted until 1453.
Ironically it was ruled by the Crusaders from 1204-1261, who effectively killed it off as a major power.

Ah, but the Roman Empire technically continued until 1923, because the Ottoman Emperors didn't consider themselves as the conquerors of the Roman people. In fact, the Ottoman Emperors took the title of Roman Emperor as well as their many other titles after they took over Constantinople.

AMERICA WILL NEVER DIE. ANYONE WHO SAYS LIKEWISE IS A TERRORIST. And you know what we do to terrorists.

Terrorist-> :mad: :sniper: <-US

Actually you haven't done squat to terrorists, just the nations that "harbour" them.

And Jeruselem, during the crusades, western Europe did not rule over the Ottoman. It was about 50-50 for both sides. It is in fact partially because of the Crusades feudalsim died out in Europe: doubt in the reliabilty of the church (If the church was right and this was Gods wish, why did they lose half the battles?), travel accross great distances (all of Europe) sparked new ideas and trade among nations.

As for America whipping out some new technology to keep it in the game...that is highly doubtful. That was the beginning of the 20th century (airplane, etc...) not the 21st. Yes, big leaps are being takin, but it is slowing down. Amybe in a few hundred or thousand years another giant leap will come along, but I have big doubts about the USA pulling a death ray out of its ass just in time to burn a hole through China.

The US has at least 50 more years as a superpower, though wheather it will be alone in that catagory or not is too difficult to tell between the EU seeming to gradualy be merging into a single nation and the Chinese expasion.

Past 50 years, there's no reasonable way to tell, there's too much that could happen. Pretty much 0 chance of a theocracy takeing over though, too many differing faiths for any 1 to take power.

I can imagine that the US's decline would be the result of widestread famon, but by that point, the enire would would probably be starveing, not just the US.

I think the USA will be completely destroyed in 25 years, in 2030. Most likely an "invasion from the north", either military forces coming down from canada, or an Ice Age (glaciers creeping downward).

It will start with 2 terrorist nuclear attacks, one blowing up LA, and another blowing up Washington DC a few minutes before, in 2011.

The lack of government will result in anarchy, and by 2014, there will be fires raging all across the nation, either set by angry people, or civil war.

A trojan horse-type nuke will blow up NYC on jan 1, 2020.

I'm not sure what will happen after 2020, but by 2030, the usa will be no more.

What you need here is a bookie. I'll give even odds at 150 years.

America is as durable as any nation can be that is ethnically heterogeneous. I tend to think America will morph itself into something larger encompassing some of the neighboring states in some federal structure, but that won't begin for another thirty to seventy years.

I wouldn't bet on that, especially with the growing differences between Canada and America. One of the most powerful political ads in Canadain history featured erasing the border, which scared most Canadians.

I would bet on: We're all going to f*** up the environment somehow, then we'll be f***ed.

I think the USA will be completely destroyed in 25 years, in 2030. Most likely an "invasion from the north", either military forces coming down from canada, or an Ice Age (glaciers creeping downward).

It will start with 2 terrorist nuclear attacks, one blowing up LA, and another blowing up Washington DC a few minutes before, in 2011.

The lack of government will result in anarchy, and by 2014, there will be fires raging all across the nation, either set by angry people, or civil war.

A trojan horse-type nuke will blow up NYC on jan 1, 2020.

I'm not sure what will happen after 2020, but by 2030, the usa will be no more.
Interesting prophosey, you writeing a book or something?

Interesting prophosey, you writeing a book or something?
No, but I DID incorporate it into my Empire's history in my Civilization 2 PlutoEmp scenarios, starting with my Empire sneaking in that trojan horse nuke.

But, it is ONLY my personal prediction. No one can truly know what exactly may happen during the next 30 years.

I also have a prediction for the rest of the world for that same timeframe.

There may be an asteroid impact in China, an all out nuclear war in Europe, possibly caused by rebels, and a 3rd terrorist nuke in Capetown, South Africa.

Hopefully, none of this will happen, and things will take a turn for the better, but I doubt that things will improve.

At the top of the world? The USA has at least another 50 years. In the Top 3 (at #2, just behind China), I'd say this nation will never fall below that point.

The way I see it, as China runs out of room (and resources, as America has many times the natural resources China has, not to mention far more farmland), about 200 years after America falls from the top, it will rise again.

One reason for America's stunted economy as of late is the unnecessary fall of the Steel Industry. Needless imports of poor-quality foreign steel badly hurt the steel industry in the early 1970's, and it all but killed it by 1982. Even to this day, millions of people who were once employed by manufacturers, not necessarily related to steel, are out of work. And it looks as if this trend is continuing in other sectors of industry, namely corporate business, where many people are being replaced by over-seas workers from India who work for less than half of what American workers are paid.

China won't necessarily surpass America in the next 50 years, but if this trend of the government not giving a damn about our workers continues, China will definately be #1, maybe even in the next 20 years.

My personal take on this is that soon the US will have such a commanding technological lead that it will remain the premier world power for many years to come, eventually morphing into a world government.

Film at eleven.

USA doesnt make new breakthough technology anymore.the people who make it in the US are foriegn or foriegn educated.

japan is much faster in the tech race currently.

USA doesnt make new breakthough technology anymore.the people who make it in the US are foriegn or foriegn educated.

japan is much faster in the tech race currently.


You are sorely mistaken my friend. The US can be attributed to 90% of any and all breakthroughs. Drugs and medicine are huge ones. Space and military applications are second. For the most part Japan only improves on existing ideas. The chinese just steal the plans and make cheap knockoffs.