NationStates Jolt Archive

The CIA Predicts a Grim Future for Pakistan
February 14, 2005: A new CIA report predicts that Pakistan may well come apart in the next decade. Corruption and poor government are making Islamic radicalism more popular, especially in the Pushtun (northwest) and Baluchi (southwest) tribal areas. Most of the population is not tribal. In fact, about have the population is in one province, Punjab. When India and Pakistan were formed in 1947, Punjab was split, with about 70 percent of it going to Pakistan. The Indian portion, with better government and less corruption, has done more than twice as well as the Pakistani part (on a per-capita basis). India also has problems with tribal separatists (in the northeast), but in Pakistan the tribes comprise a larger portion of the population (at least ten percent.) It's expensive to fight the tribes, and the Baluchis are eager to take control of the lucrative natural gas fields operating in Baluchistan. The CIA report sees the country coming apart along ethnic lines, much like Yugoslavia did in the 1990s. This would create a Punjabi state, with at least half the population, plus Pushtun and Baluchi states, plus one or two more. The big question is what would happen to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis dismiss the report, pointing out that, while they created the mess, they've also learned to deal with it. (http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=INDIA.HTM)

Pretty good analysis of the mess, IMHO. What do you think?

I've heard that all the non-Punjabs hate the Punjabs.

I wonder if the "new Tito" can pull off a miracle and prevent this from happening...Pakistan still has a chance; from what I've seen and heard it could still be salvaged.

I was watching a programe on television about that very idea of Pakistani nukes falling into rebels hands, and the explanation the show gave was that pakistan didn't have to many nuclear weapons, and that the United states knows where most of the major stockpiles are, and agrees that in the even of a revolution the government will not stop the americans from taking the weapons. But this was on the discovery channel about a week before the afganistan invasion of 01, so this info may not be up to date.

I was watching a programe on television about that very idea of Pakistani nukes falling into rebels hands, and the explanation the show gave was that pakistan didn't have to many nuclear weapons, and that the United states knows where most of the major stockpiles are, and agrees that in the even of a revolution the government will not stop the americans from taking the weapons. But this was on the discovery channel about a week before the afganistan invasion of 01, so this info may not be up to date.

I'd have to say, they'd be lucky if the US grabbed them. India or China wouldn't be as gentle about taking them.

It has a high chance of happening. The same elements that were in Yugoslavia in the eighties are in Pakistan today. There is the growing economy and demand for more rights, set at the backdrop of a semi-repressive regime. There is a major power shift: in Yugoslavia's case, it was the collapse of the Soviet Empire, and in Pakistan's case, it was the collapse of the Taliban. And most importantly, there are a wide variety of ethnic groups.
There is a bit of hope, however. Slovenia escaped much of the damage of the other areas, and has a GDP that is almost equal to Western Europe's. Croatia was damaged, but it is now coming back. Let's hope that some of the Pakistani states do that.

Although now that I think about it, here is a question: will US troops need to go into Pakistan, like they did in Bosnia? Pakistan is probably harder to control, too.