NationStates Jolt Archive


Next regime change attempt by the U.S.

Sankaraland
01-02-2005, 12:35
Iran: This country is a threat to Israel, the U.S.'s main ally in the Middle East. It is also the 2nd-strongest Middle Eastern power. It may be developing nuclear weapons. It has the 3rd-largest oil reserves in the world, and could serve as the terminus for an oil/gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea. The U.S. has troops stationed on 2 of Iran's borders and is talking tough about Iran's nuclear energy program. The U.S. has acknowledged recent covert operations in Iran, but also recently relaxed economic sanctions. Iran has the world's 8th-largest army and a population ready to defend the gains of the 1979 revolution, and would put up a hell of a fight. Iran has reasonably good relations with the UK, the U.S.'s main European ally.

Syria: This is an easier target than Iran. It is also in the Middle East, and is very active in funding resistance to Israel and to the U.S.'s occupation of Iraq. The U.S. has troops stationed on the border with Iraq, and is allied with the neighboring countries of Israel, Turkey, and Jordan. It maintains a sanctions regime against Syria. Syria has the 14th-largest army in the world, including a very large tank force, but likely would put up little resistance as the dictatorship has sapped the will of the people to fight. Syria is also a center for French influence in the region, which threatens American business interests. However, Syria has very little oil.

Sudan: This country has been accused of genocide by the U.S. and is a world pariah for its ethnic/religious persecution, aid to al-Qaeda, and support of slavery. The U.S. maintains a sanctions regime against this country and bombed a pharmaceuticals factory here in 1998. Many liberal forces have called for an invasion. Sudan borders Egypt, a strong U.S. ally, and is strategically located on the Red Sea. In addition to Egypt, it borders Eritrea and Ethiopia, also two strong military powers. Invading Sudan would be a cakewalk, but these strong neighbors would be sure to protest the establishment of U.S. forces here, as would Sudan's powerful trading partners, China and Japan.

Somalia: Neighboring Djibouti is the regional base for France AND the U.S. This country borders Ethiopia and is strategically located on the Red Sea. The U.S. maintains sanctions against this country, which has aided al-Qaeda. Somalia also has substantial amounts of uranium. Although the U.S. ended its 1992-1994 war on Somalia because of what were seen as high casualties at the time, Americans are more willing to accept high casualties now in the name of "fighting terror."

Venezuela: In the past year and a half, the U.S. has backed a military coup, a lockout by employers, and a recall petition, all in efforts to overthrow this government, which has established close trade and diplomatic ties with Cuba (see below) and has encroached on the prerogatives of the U.S.-dominated farming and fishing industries. The U.S. is also believed to be behind the attempted assassinations of Venezuelan officials by Colombian mercenaries, and a recent kidnapping in Caracas by Colombian police. Venezuela is accused of aiding the FARC rebels in Colombia. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the Americans and the 5th-largest in the world. The country is now seizing idle farms and distributing them to peasants, raising fears of a communistic evolution in the future. Although it has successfully pushed back 3 direct attempts to overthrow its government recently, Venezuela's capacity for resistance to a direct invasion is unknown.

Cuba: Cuba is the only communist nation in the world. As such, it has been the unceasing target of U.S. hostility for decades. The U.S. has a tight blockade on Cuba, devotes more resources to propaganda and psychological operations against Cuba than any other country, maintains a "dual immigration" policy aimed at undermining Cuba's stability, and has 5 Cuban citizens in its jails for seeking to infiltrate U.S.-based anti-Cuban terrorist organizations. The U.S. criticized Cuba last year for arresting and jailing 75 U.S. spies, and executing 3 boat hijackers. The Cuban government distributes rifles with ammunition, grenades, and land mines to the public, and all citizens receive military training. It recently organized defense exercises involving 4 million out of a population of 11 million. In 1962, the Pentagon estimated that the U.S. would sustain 18,000 casualties in the first 10 days of an invasion of Cuba.

N. Korea: This country is also targeted by the U.S., and its regional ally, Japan, for its revolution against capitalism. The U.S. maintains a sanctions regime against this country and has troops stationed in S. Korea and Japan. It has recently pulled back its troops in S. Korea from the border, indicating its preference for an air war over a ground war. Support for reunification of Korea is strong on both sides of the border, leading to potential reopening of hostilities which would oblige the U.S. to intervene. The U.S. is in multi-party negotiations with N. Korea, demanding that this country give up its nuclear power and nuclear weapons programs. In 1999, the seizure of fuel rods bound for Yemen from a N. Korean merchant ship by a Spanish pirate ship fueled fears that N. Korea is contributing to nuclear proliferation. N. Korea is a nuclear power with the 4th-largest army in the world. It has a mutual defense pact with China, which has the largest army in the world (although nowhere near the technical capability of the U.S.'s military, which is second in terms of number of troops). S. Korea has the 6th-largest army in the world, and Japan is 22nd. If reserves are included, N. Korea has more troops than any other country, and S. Korea is 2nd. With Chinese aid, N. Korea fought the U.S. to a stalemate in 1950-1953.

Nigeria: Spiraling ethnic violence could become the pretext for an opportunistic invasion of this, the most populous country in Africa. The U.S. is far behind France and the UK in economic penetration of Africa, and dominating this large market would go a long way toward reversing that. Nigeria has the largest oil and gas reserves in Africa. It is the strongest military power in the region, but would collapse before the military might of the U.S. Nigeria has strong trade ties with the U.S. and has generally been supportive of U.S. interests in W. Africa. However, similar circumstances didn't stop the U.S. from invading Panama or Haiti. Nigeria is a Commonwealth member and the UK would strongly oppose a U.S. invasion, UNLESS it was British-led and sanctioned by the UN.

Ivory Coast: Maybe the U.S. will try to put France and the UN in their place with a frontal attack on this nation, rich in cocoa, oil, and diamonds, that is hosting a French-led, UN-backed occupation force. The U.S. has a small number of troops in neighboring Liberia, which is a center for U.S. influence on the Gulf of Guinea. A sufficient invasion force would have no trouble taking over here, but it would be sure to meet with strong international condemnation.

Other: Who do YOU think it will be?
Spiffydom
01-02-2005, 12:40
You forgot Blue States and Canada on your list. :D
Graecio-romano Ruslan
01-02-2005, 12:44
and the french :p
Vonners
01-02-2005, 12:49
Antartica
The necro penguin
01-02-2005, 12:58
Antartica
NNNNNNnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:


how about one in the US. :)
Monkeypimp
01-02-2005, 12:59
Antartica


They'll probably accidently regime-change the part that they've already claimed.
Kanabia
01-02-2005, 13:07
Cuba is the only communist nation in the world.

Oh? China, Laos, Vietnam and North Korea all have "Communist" parties in power.
Vonners
01-02-2005, 13:11
They'll probably accidently regime-change the part that they've already claimed.

LOLOL!!!! Those damn liberal scientists at McMurdo Station...

http://astro.uchicago.edu/cara/vtour/mcmurdo/
Nova Terrace
01-02-2005, 13:14
I'm not so sure Iran's population is going to swarm to protect the 'gains' made in 1979. They are one of the most pro-western populations in the region, and every year there are massive student protests in support of democratic change. I don't think that's any reason to go marching in there and 'liberate' them, but at the same time it's not like they are all Islamic extremists. Only their government.

-J
Castleford
01-02-2005, 13:24
Maybe one day the US will pick on a nation that can defend itself unlike Iraq could due to having no real defence force and the Republican Guard were a joke.
New York and Jersey
01-02-2005, 13:28
Somalia isnt a country. Its a group of warlords fighting it out amongst themselves over whats left of a country. There is no established body that offically supports Al-Queda. Only rival warlords trying to one up each other.
Monkeypimp
01-02-2005, 13:28
Maybe one day the US will pick on a nation that can defend itself unlike Iraq could due to having no real defence force and the Republican Guard were a joke.

But what about the WMD they were convinced were there? I still follow my belief that they had to know that they weren't there beforehand, because who'd be stupid enough to attack a nation that can defend themselves with those sorts of weapons? Thats why North Korea gets special talks when they announce to everyone that they have a nuke.
New York and Jersey
01-02-2005, 13:31
..I found the North Korea bit funny..I didnt know Spain still had pirate ships :-T

It was also inaccurate, that took place in 2002-2003, they were missiles being shipped from North Korea to Yemen.
Cahoona
01-02-2005, 14:29
my missus is a pretty fierce dictator, she doen't have any army although she could probably summon up the army of darkness if threatened. love ya babe :fluffle:
Greedy Pig
01-02-2005, 15:05
Don't think US is going to invade anymore. People are complaining about the deficit and stuff. Plus, rebuilding of Iraq is going to tie down US's troops for the next 3 years me thinks.
Keruvalia
01-02-2005, 15:07
Just by virtue of the fact that it's an easy target, my vote goes with Syria.
Von Witzleben
01-02-2005, 15:23
Canada.
Sankaraland
01-02-2005, 20:57
Cuba: I stand by the position that this is the only state led by communists, as defined in the Communist Manifesto. The Communist Parties in China and Vietnam are Stalinist parties ... i.e., counterrevolutionary parties. Same with the Korean Workers' Party. These countries remain workers' states only because the so-called Communist Parties have been unable to reimpose capitalism there. Laos is similarly a bureaucratic dictatorship, but it is not even a workers' state--it is a capitalist state whose Communist Party takes its orders from Hanoi.

Iran: Support for democratic reform and opposition to the theocracy does not automatically equate to pro-Western sentiment ... this is wishful thinking and media spin. Iranians still remember the CIA overthrow of Iran's democratic government in 1954, and the U.S.'s support of the shah ... and many see the regime of the ayatollahs merely as a symptom of how incomplete the 1979 revolution was. Iran seems to be the overwhelming winner though--I'm surprised. I voted for Venezuela and my 2nd guess was Syria.

Somalia: Acknowledged, thanks.

N. Korea: I apologize for the inaccuracies about dates & materials. N. Korea is accused of contributing to nuclear proliferation though, e.g., it is alleged to have cooperated with Pakistan in producing nuclear weapons. And the point still stands that a ship that boards a merchant ship on the high seas and seizes its cargo is a pirate ship.

Regime change in the U.S.? Tell me more.
Sankaraland
01-02-2005, 21:01
Don't think US is going to invade anymore. People are complaining about the deficit and stuff. Plus, rebuilding of Iraq is going to tie down US's troops for the next 3 years me thinks.

I disagree on these points. First, the U.S. has not had economic growth in peacetime since WWII ... its whole economy depends on war and increasingly so. Second, its political power is falling off and it needs war to shore that up. Third, the U.S. has been quite successful in Iraq and is getting more and more ready to turn things over to the new Iraqi Army and bring nearly all the troops out. Fourth, Bush set a warlike tone in his second inaugural. Fifth, people can complain but there has been very little effective resistance to the war on Iraq.
Neo Cannen
01-02-2005, 21:02
France (Seriously the fact Le'pen came so close and they have WMD!)
Drunk commies
01-02-2005, 21:03
I voted N. Korea because I think we could use a war in a more temperate climate. It's hot in Iraq, and N. Korea might be a welcome break from the desert climate. Although personally I think Tahiti would be better.
Drunk commies
01-02-2005, 21:04
I disagree on these points. First, the U.S. has not had economic growth in peacetime since WWII ... its whole economy depends on war and increasingly so. Second, its political power is falling off and it needs war to shore that up. Third, the U.S. has been quite successful in Iraq and is getting more and more ready to turn things over to the new Iraqi Army and bring nearly all the troops out. Fourth, Bush set a warlike tone in his second inaugural. Fifth, people can complain but there has been very little effective resistance to the war on Iraq.
Bullshit. The US experienced great economic growth during the Clinton years and that was without even the benefit of a cold war.
THE LOST PLANET
01-02-2005, 21:07
I voted N. Korea because I think we could use a war in a more temperate climate. It's hot in Iraq, and N. Korea might be a welcome break from the desert climate. Although personally I think Tahiti would be better.Temperate? Dude you obviously know nothing about Korea. Sure it's not a desert, but you better have a large supply of artic gear for the winter. Last time the US fought there a large percentage of casualties were due to frostbite.

I think the troops would prefer to stay in Iraq.
Quindenisia
01-02-2005, 21:14
Temperate? Dude you obviously know nothing about Korea. Sure it's not a desert, but you better have a large supply of artic gear for the winter. Last time the US fought there a large percentage of casualties were due to frostbite.

I think the troops would prefer to stay in Iraq.

I agree. 110 degrees sure felt a lot better than the weather when I was near the DMZ in South Korea. Though there are more chicks in South Korea than in Iraq. Hmmm.

Plus there's barbershops in South Korea that give you head as they cut your hair! Guess you can't beat that.
Sankaraland
02-02-2005, 01:22
Bullshit. The US experienced great economic growth during the Clinton years and that was without even the benefit of a cold war.

Clinton sent more troops overseas than any other president besides G.W. Bush--more than Wilson or FDR. His administration included wars in Somalia, Haiti, and the Balkans; repeated bombing campaigns against Iraq; bomb/missile attacks on Afghanistan and Sudan; biological attacks on Cuba; and big increases in military aid to Colombia, Mexico, and Israel. It also included the establishment of the first domestic military command since Reconstruction, which went hand in hand with military-style attacks like the one at Waco.
Sankaraland
02-02-2005, 01:24
And I thought about putting France on the list, but I don't think conditions have deteriorated to the point where a war is imminent yet--I think the U.S. would be more likely to attack France indirectly with an invasion of Syria, Ivory Coast, Somalia, or Iran. Invading Syria would also give the U.S. more leverage to pressure Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians in order to defuse a crisis that France, etc., are exploiting to their own ends.
Roach-Busters
02-02-2005, 01:32
Oh? China, Laos, Vietnam and North Korea all have "Communist" parties in power.

Zimbabwe, Angola, Cambodia, Russia (yes, President Putrid was a KGB colonel), Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, etc., are also communist or pro-communist countries.
Andaluciae
02-02-2005, 01:39
In the foreseable future, none.
Roach-Busters
02-02-2005, 01:42
I'd absolutely love to see a regime change in Zimbabwe. Hell, if we did go to war with Zimbabwe (never happen), I'd immediately enlist in the military.
Alien Born
02-02-2005, 01:47
Don't think US is going to invade anymore. People are complaining about the deficit and stuff. Plus, rebuilding of Iraq is going to tie down US's troops for the next 3 years me thinks.

You are overestimating the intelligence in the whitehouse, methinks. :rolleyes:

I vote for Venezuela, after the reception Chavez got at the World Social Forum.
Anacarthia
02-02-2005, 01:53
If the US does go after another country, it would be a weak one (Iraq's military was circling the drain compared to ours in part because of 10 years of economic sanctions.) Additionally victories make anyone look good even if it is an easy victory. Also there must be some "cause" which G.W. can use as an excuse to start the war such as support for terrorism or weapons of mass destruction.

Fortunately for the world and all potential targets, the US will not be able to conduct any more wars of conquest for the next couple of years since we will be tied up in Iraq for a long time. The place is just too unstable for us to be able to withdraw any time soon and it will continue to eat up manpower and money. Simply put the US can't afford another war becaue Iraq is probably going to become a second Vietnaim. Of course my reasoning assumes an intelligent President. But as everyone outside of the US and about 48% of Americans know, we don't have one of those.
The Black Forrest
02-02-2005, 03:04
Syria.

I remember a BBC report where the guy was walking down some street in Damascus and pointing out offices for the terror groups.

Asad Jr is nothing like his old man so he is a token leader.

Supposedly many of the foreign fighters were crossing the border from Syria.


Iran: Sounds like it but I am not sure. But then again who knows what's in the Shrubs head. Again the BBC had a broadcast about the changing of times for Iran. The guy pointed out a recent anti-us protest(this was pre 9/11) and the protestors were all old. Guys from the 79. They didn't have the young. He went to a few spots in the hills around Tehran where the young would go party. Kind against the rules of the theocratic goverment.

I don't know the Iraq invasion did for the general attitude but the guy back then felt Iran would change on it's own. The people may not like the US, but they really didn't love the hardliners either..

Time will tell.......
Sankaraland
02-02-2005, 09:28
The S. Vietnamese resistance had the leadership of the NLF and the support of the population ... the Iraqi resistance has a politically bankrupt leadership that is systematically alienating any popular support it has while it is weakened militarily with every campaign.