NationStates Jolt Archive

This is a pretty interesting article. What say you on all this?


Sun 16 Jan 2005




CIA gives grim warning on European prospects

NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN


THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

Well, first of all, if I trusted anybody to tell me what the world would be like in fifteen years, it wouldn't be the CIA.
But I certainly hope not. I think that adopting one currency across national bounds(although as I understand it this is a little separate from the EU) is an extremely important step toward ending poverty around the world.

Remember, the CIA is only worth listening to when it says something that goes against the Bush administration.

:rolleyes:



Don't read this literally

The European Union is too bureaucratic for its own good, I think. (example: laws like that Cheddar cheese can only come from Cheddar, England). It would seem to me that nothing would really change if it it breaks apart. I mean, isn't the UK (and probably some of the Scandinavian nations) just in it for the free trade?

Remember, the CIA is only worth listening to when it says something that goes against the Bush administration.

:rolleyes:

Don't read this literally

The CIA couldn't find its own ass with both hands.

The agency that failed to identify the upcoming fall of the Soviet Union.
The agency that said there were WMD in Iraq.
The agency that couldn't run a single secret operation in Central America without it being all over the New York Times.

I think the paragraph about research isn't accurate. More recently bio-tech companies have been growing in Europe. Europe is especially likely to become the centre for genetic and stem cell research as the US has an increasling moral attitude towards these areas of research, whereas Europe has been taking a more relaxed attitude. However, countries such as the UK will have to target animal rights activists, which have threatened to become more violent in their protests against bio-tech research. Large drug companies have already threatened to pull out of the UK if they can nopt be guarenteed a safe working in environment.

The article also states an 'if' in its main point. 15 years is a long time to realise the problems of an ageing population, indeed, the UK is already discussing the solutions to such problems.

To me this report seems highly biased against Europe. It seems, according to the CIA, that everything bad in the world over the next few decades will happen to Europe and no other nation or bloc. The CIA doesn't really seem to be basing their predictions on any special evidence, so I say their guess is as good as ours. Most of their predictions are based on huge assumptions; assumptions that the EU won't change and evolve over the next 20 years, which is a foolish thing to do considering how much the world has changed in the last 20 years.

The European Union is too bureaucratic for its own good, I think. (example: laws like that Cheddar cheese can only come from Cheddar, England). It would seem to me that nothing would really change if it it breaks apart. I mean, isn't the UK (and probably some of the Scandinavian nations) just in it for the free trade?

i agree compleetly, form the UK perspective the EU is used as a monatary battery to draw funds off when we need to build a big infastructure project we cant be bothered funding ourselves. The downside of such a collapse would be felt through the sciences in this country, our govenrment has pulled almost all its spending from scinece, in my father's work the overwhelming majority of the money to support his government lab has to come from the EU or the few private enterprises clever enough to fund projects and not let everyone else do all the development work.

appart from the cash injection the collapse of the EU would go pritty un-noticed by the UK in my simple oppinion. and then i can claim my rightful throne as the one true emperor of europe!!

Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population.

No need to worry about that, plans to increase the age of retirement are already underway. Hooray for working at the age of 75!

Most EU nations have been at zero population growth for over a decade. Combining their nations gives some economic leeway and strength they would not possess as individuals.

They have incentive to stay together. There are combinatorial effects they get that they would want to keep.

ZPG makes it hard to maintain a youthful work force, a youthful source of intellect, and a source of soldiers for military adventurism.

Ageing populations in combination with ZPG is a recipe for decline.

Seems like a nice ploy for preventing Americans worrying about the same problem in the USA.

Problems at home, Let the Intelligence services solve it for you by distracting peoples attention. See this thread (http://forums2.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=389653)

1) Having skimmed through this document, I saw no mention of the UK economy, which is very strong ATM

2) Exactly what kind of authority is an American intellegence agency (a phrase that would seem to be an oxy-moron after the failings in Iraq) to comment on the political/economic and social evolution of a continent that is far older than their county, let alone their institution, in terms of national origin. I think it would be far more logical for European observers to examine Europes future.

3) In terms of population growth, the US has a simmilar problem to Europe. The baby boomer generation will far outnumber the younger generation, thus creating an inverted population prymiad.

Why is the CIA suddenly now in the business of making economic forecasts?

Shouldn't that be the business of economists, rather than spies?

And why does it not surprise me that their forecast is, "Europe will fail and fall apart because its economy isn't enough like America's"?

I mean, come on guys, read the subtext.

As for the EU bureaucracy thing... granted that lack of oversight leads to bloat, but the Cheddar cheese thing? Come on. In my local supermarket I can buy Cheddar cheese from Scotland, Ireland... all perfectly legally.

A certain amount of the bad stuff you hear in the UK about the EU is true, but an awful lot of it has been made up out of thin air - mostly by the editor of The Sun.

2) Exactly what kind of authority is an American intellegence agency (a phrase that would seem to be an oxy-moron after the failings in Iraq) to comment on the political/economic and social evolution of a continent that is far older than their county, let alone their institution, in terms of national origin. I think it would be far more logical for European observers to examine Europes future.
What does the time a country has been around have to do with anything? Its not like Europeans have people who have been around since the Middle Ages. The length of a country's timeline by itself dosen't effect its citizens' analytical abilities.

What does the time a country has been around have to do with anything? Its not like Europeans have people who have been around since the Middle Ages. The length of a country's timeline by itself dosen't effect its citizens' analytical abilities.

Well I think Europe, having been a significent economic power for far longer than America, knows how to run itself. America has very little experiance on which to base its analysis, which is untrue of Europe.

Let's see here: CIA talks bad about EU/Euro. economy. This is likely to be another one of their ffflops. No one really knows what the world will be like in 2020. We will have to wait and see what it is like.

Well I think Europe, having been a significent economic power for far longer than America, knows how to run itself. America has very little experiance on which to base its analysis, which is untrue of Europe.

Europe has not been a significant economic power for anything approaching the length of time the USA has - inidividual European states certainly have been but a united Europe is only marginally older than East Timor, so by your twisted logic we would be better off listening to the CIA.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

Well, difficult prediction, as it already does surpass most European countries. The problem is that by 2020 at current rates, it will easily surpass that of the USA, which by that time will have collapsed under its debt burden anyway.

Maybe the CIA actually got something right in this report after all.

The CIA couldn't find its own ass with both hands.

The agency that failed to identify the upcoming fall of the Soviet Union.
The agency that said there were WMD in Iraq.
The agency that couldn't run a single secret operation in Central America without it being all over the New York Times.

So who did identify the upcoming fall of the Soviet Union? Nobody of any stature that I can think of.
And which agencies said there weren't WMDs in Iraq? Certainly no intelligence agencies connected to any member of the UN (including France, China, Russia, Germany, Syria).

The CIA has its faults, but don't lambast it just for being American.

Well I think Europe, having been a significent economic power for far longer than America, knows how to run itself. America has very little experiance on which to base its analysis, which is untrue of Europe.
When experts from a particular country analyze something, they're not just limited to their own country's history. I'm not saying the report is right, but simply because an American wrote it dosen't mean its wrong. "Europe" and "America" may have been around for different amounts of time, but because it isn't Europe and America making the report, an individual is.

If the CIA is forcasting economic recessions and downfalls, it should look in its own backyard. With the radical changes to the economy due to wide and obscene amounts of money spent on military related issues and very little put into maintain the economy and taking a laissez-faire approach, the US has writing it's own ticket to economic failure.

Ah, I wouldn't put too much stock into any thing the CIA has to say, honestly.

Europe has not been a significant economic power for anything approaching the length of time the USA has - inidividual European states certainly have been but a united Europe is only marginally older than East Timor, so by your twisted logic we would be better off listening to the CIA.

Europe as a continent, not as a unit.

I've had questions about the viability of the EU for a while. There are such cultural differences, let alone the language barriers, both tremendous obstacles. I do hope that the EU survives, but, with this info, it just seems to be a really tough run for the next 15-20 years. If it makes it beyond that, then it should be pretty good.

If the CIA is forcasting economic recessions and downfalls, it should look in its own backyard. With the radical changes to the economy due to wide and obscene amounts of money spent on military related issues and very little put into maintain the economy and taking a laissez-faire approach, the US has writing it's own ticket to economic failure.
The government doesn't maintain the economy! Laissez faire approach is what made us successful!

Though it might be true.
I hope it is not really.
I like the Euro.

Unification.
Bling bling. No more poverty.
"We" hate socialism.

It is a good test.
To see if it works for them
And even if not...

...At least they did try.
Which deserves praise and not spite.
Experiment more!

Hmm. This Haiku thing is growing on me.

Europe as a continent, not as a unit.

And Turkey, what then?
Catastrophe Arab style!
Why can't we be friends?

Europe as a continent, not as a unit.


1) what does "not as a unit" mean in refferance to your claims.

2) Are you claiming that Europe as a landmass is older than America as a landmass?

3) If by continent you somehow mean "developed civilization", then shouldnt the world be flocking to African economists/spy agencies? Maybe Indian ones, I am not sure which had a developed civilization first.

Your logic is bizarre to say the least.

So who did identify the upcoming fall of the Soviet Union? Nobody of any stature that I can think of.
And which agencies said there weren't WMDs in Iraq? Certainly no intelligence agencies connected to any member of the UN (including France, China, Russia, Germany, Syria).

The CIA has its faults, but don't lambast it just for being American.

Exactly, I mean FFS, just because of a few mistakes out of many successes, makes the people that work there stupid? The CIA employs all kinds of people, economists, statisticians, Poli Sci People, etc. that are very smart and know what they are doing. Although I will definitely admit the ADMINISTRATION of the CIA is messed up, that doesn't make the people who work there stupid.

Economic predictions by anyone are notoriously unreliable. However, that doesn't mean 'if we continue to do this, what will be the outcome' type of predictions are useless, they give warnings so people can change their actions and avoid catastrophes.

I don't know that the CIA has said anything particularly new. Most European economists and policy makers are aware that their welfare systems are unsustainable, hopefully they'll do something to change them.

Incidentally, the CIA did say to Reagan that, in their assessment, the Soviet Union couldn't sustain an arms race. And they were right.

I wouldnt be suprised if that happened, first of all, the CIA is very accurate, second of all, Europe is just too different, the thing is, they are so different, they dont speak the same language, the culture is to different, and so is their econemy. My guess, a Euro civil war, I have always thought it to be true. Than, another huge wave of European immigrants will come hear.

To me this report seems highly biased against Europe. It seems, according to the CIA, that everything bad in the world over the next few decades will happen to Europe and no other nation or bloc. The CIA doesn't really seem to be basing their predictions on any special evidence, so I say their guess is as good as ours. Most of their predictions are based on huge assumptions; assumptions that the EU won't change and evolve over the next 20 years, which is a foolish thing to do considering how much the world has changed in the last 20 years.

It said NATO would brake up. How is that biased against Europe?

I wouldnt be suprised if that happened, first of all, the CIA is very accurate, second of all, Europe is just too different, the thing is, they are so different, they dont speak the same language, the culture is to different, and so is their econemy. My guess, a Euro civil war, I have always thought it to be true. Than, another huge wave of European immigrants will come hear.

I hope you are being sarcastic, but in case you are not then:
The CIA is very accurate??? WMDs, agood case in point, the bay of pigs, another, blazing success, history shows the CIA to be less accurate than your average gypsy fortune teller.

Europe is different, but no more so then the USA. Yes we have more languages, but nearly everyone, except the French, speaks enough English to be able to communicate with one another. The USA has its equivalent of the french in the Tex-Mex and Florida Cubans, who speak wonderful Spanish, but no English.

The economy, hum, how is the economy across Europe different. The same central bank, the same basic principles, ah, variations in taxation. State taxes, ever heard of them? Variation in law, State laws. etc. etc.

If the USA as a federation of states is a cohesive unit, then so is Europe.

The issue of Turkey, is something completely different. As I posted elsewhere, I believe that Brazil has a better claim on being admitted to the EU than Turkey does. The EU is an association of culturally linked nation states. Turkey does not share this culture.

I hope you are being sarcastic, but in case you are not then:
The CIA is very accurate??? WMDs, agood case in point, the bay of pigs, another, blazing success, history shows the CIA to be less accurate than your average gypsy fortune teller.

Europe is different, but no more so then the USA. Yes we have more languages, but nearly everyone, except the French, speaks enough English to be able to communicate with one another. The USA has its equivalent of the french in the Tex-Mex and Florida Cubans, who speak wonderful Spanish, but no English.

The economy, hum, how is the economy across Europe different. The same central bank, the same basic principles, ah, variations in taxation. State taxes, ever heard of them? Variation in law, State laws. etc. etc.

If the USA as a federation of states is a cohesive unit, then so is Europe.

The issue of Turkey, is something completely different. As I posted elsewhere, I believe that Brazil has a better claim on being admitted to the EU than Turkey does. The EU is an association of culturally linked nation states. Turkey does not share this culture.

Did I say anything about Turkey? I dont think I did.

Second of all, econemy is not taxes. Econemy is like farming, industry. And there is about as much difference their as in the US. Bad ex. by me. Anyway, I would like to see the EU succeed, I just think they spent too much time apart. With the US, we started as one country with a handful of states, we only got more united in time (after the civil war.) Hey, noone knows whats going to happen. I think personally there will be a Euro civil war, but certainly not in any of our lifetimes. And who knows, unlike the US civil war, maybe it will end in the good for the (European) people.

Did I say anything about Turkey? I dont think I did.

No the Turkey bit, was not in reply to you, but to some opinions stated on the previous page.

Second of all, econemy is not taxes. Econemy is like farming, industry. And there is about as much difference their as in the US. Bad ex. by me. Anyway, I would like to see the EU succeed, I just think they spent too much time apart. With the US, we started as one country with a handful of states, we only got more united in time (after the civil war.) Hey, noone knows whats going to happen. I think personally there will be a Euro civil war, but certainly not in any of our lifetimes. And who knows, unlike the US civil war, maybe it will end in the good for the (European) people.


The USA started as a collection of Indian nations, and was forced into being one nation by a whole series of conflicts. Europe has also had a large, and at times long running series of conflicts, which it is now begining to move beyond. History of conflict is no deterrent to future co-operation.

About the economy I think we agree that no region the size of Europe, USA, Canada, Australia, Brazil or Russia can possibly be homogeneous with regard to industry, farming, forestry, fishing, services, and manufacturing. The differences between regions just make the strength of the union across these regions stronger.
A farming region, say France or Poland, needs the products of an industrial region, Germany, the UK, which in turn need the products of the farmers. This happens in the USA. North Dakota needs the products of Ohio, which in turn needs the products of North Dakota.

I do not forsee an internal military war in Europe, whilst the EU exists.

Did I say anything about Turkey? I dont think I did.

Second of all, econemy is not taxes. Econemy is like farming, industry. And there is about as much difference their as in the US. Bad ex. by me. Anyway, I would like to see the EU succeed, I just think they spent too much time apart. With the US, we started as one country with a handful of states, we only got more united in time (after the civil war.) Hey, noone knows whats going to happen. I think personally there will be a Euro civil war, but certainly not in any of our lifetimes. And who knows, unlike the US civil war, maybe it will end in the good for the (European) people.

The first and second world wars can be described as European civil wars. It was to prevent such events, that the EU was dreamed of.

And to those that "foresee" the fall of the EU.. the EU is in the minds of many europeans. It isnt just about economy unity, it is about brotherhood. I will leave you with an old speech, about the union of the peoples of Europe. Curiously, it was made far before the EU was ever formed.

Gentlemen, if someone four centuries ago, at a time when war raged from parish to parish, from parish to parish, from town to town, from province - if someone had said to Lorraine, to Picardy, to Normandy, to Brittany, to Auvergne, to Province, to Dauphine, to Burgundy, 'A day will come when you will no longer wage war, when you will no longer raise men of arms against each other, when it will no longer raise men of arms against each other, when it will no longer be said that Normans have attacked the men of Picardy, and the men of Lorraine have driven back those of Burgundy; that you will still have differences to settle, interests to discuss, certainly disputes to solve, but do you know what you will have in place of men on foot and horseback, in place of guns, falconets, spears, pikes, and swords? You will have a small box made of wood, which you will call a ballot box. And do you know what this box will bring forth? An assembly, an assembly in which you will all feel you live, an assembly which will be like your own soul, a supreme and popular council which will decide, judge, and solve everything in law, which will cause the sword to fall from every hand and justice to rise in every heart. And this event will say to you, 'There ends your right, here begins your duty. Lay down your arms! Live in peace!"

On that day you will be conscious of a common thought, common interests, and a common destiny. You will clasp each other's hands and you will acknowledge that you are sons of the same blood and the same race. On that day you will no longer be hostile tribes, but a nation. You will no longer be Burgundy, Normandy, Brittany, Provence, you will be France. On that day your name will no longer be war, but civilization.

Well, you say today - and I am one of those who say it with you - all of us here, we say to France, to England, to Prussia, to Austria, to Spain, to Italy, to Russia, we say to them, 'A day will come when your weapons will fall from your hands, a day when war will seem absurd and be as impossible between Paris and London, St. Petersburg and Berlin, Vienna and Turin, as today it would seem impossible between Rouen and Amiens, Boston and Philadelphia.

A day will come when there will be no battlefields, but markets opening to commerce and minds opening to ideas. A day will come when the bullets and bombs are replaced by votes, by universal suffrage, by the venerable arbitration of a great supreme senate which will be to Europe what Parliament is to England, the Diet to Germany, and the Legislative Assembly to France.

A day will come when a cannon will be a museum-piece, as instruments of torture are today. And we will be amazed to think that these things once existed! A day will come when a cannon will be a museum-piece, as instruments of torture are today. And we will be amazed to think that these things once existed!

A day will come when we shall see those two immense groups, the United States of America and the United States of Europe, stretching out their hands across the sea, exchanging their products, their arts, their works of genius, clearing up the globe, making deserts fruitful, ameliorating creation under the eyes of the Creator, and joining together to reap the well-being of all.

Victor Hugo

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.
a reason for much further economic and political union within the EU. Individually European countries will be economically overtaken, but together - actually together, ie. unified - perhaps we will do better.
makes more sense than going it alone.

I think the EU has largely been a success and hopefully will continue to be so.

It's nice that for the first time in European history there is genuine peace throughtout huge chunks of land that have been at war for centuries. Also, there is a growing realisation that if Europe can't act as a unit, we'll be hugely overshadowed by India and China before too long, as well as the US remaining far more powerful than us economically, unless their deficit catches up with them.

The EU has achieved many things, most recently a start to improved human rights in Turkey. Possibly the greatest thing about the EU is that to join a country has to abolish the death penalty. This gives us some moral ground over the other superpowers (former, present & future).

It always seems a bit strange to me that many Americans both moan about having to come to Europe's aid all the time AND criticise us for trying to act as one at the same time!

:headbang: Did I say anything about Turkey? I dont think I did.

Second of all, econemy is not taxes. Econemy is like farming, industry. And there is about as much difference their as in the US. Bad ex. by me. Anyway, I would like to see the EU succeed, I just think they spent too much time apart. With the US, we started as one country with a handful of states, we only got more united in time (after the civil war.) Hey, noone knows whats going to happen. I think personally there will be a Euro civil war, but certainly not in any of our lifetimes. And who knows, unlike the US civil war, maybe it will end in the good for the (European) people.


The Chambers 'English' Dictionary defines economy as (1)The thrifty management of money (2) Organisation of money and resources: the country's economy. Farming, Industry, although are indeed a country's resources, are part of a country's infra-structure and not solely it's economy.

Yes there are differences within the family of nations that make up the EU and with expansion it brings new challenges; however I am more inclined to agree with an optimistic view of increased trade between member states and the drawing closer of those states as part of a democratic union which is less relient on the USA, than with a doom and gloom report from an organisation (the CIA) which has got it wrong on more than one occasion.

This kind of scare mongering does make you wonder what the US establishment is most frightened of - surely it can't be a prosperous, independant Europe who no longer relies solely on the US !

As for the point with regards to a Euro civil war, not really sure where this comes from - especially as you say not in our lifetimes - obviously if you look forward over a large span of time there is a likelyhood for national conflicts, however I cannot see how you could look at the current situation in Europe and feel that long term civil war is on the cards ! It is as likely as the US declaring war on Canada (hang on a minute, now it's my turn for a bad example)

So you don't think the CIA makes a very good case for the demise of the EU? Well, the EUObserver makes pretty much the same case. The author points out several of the things we are confused about. Why the rush to end national sovereignity? Why the rush to government by bureaucrats? Anyway it's some interesting stuff.



European Union collapse looming
Written by Lisbeth Kirk

EUObserver



The two authors, ANDREAS OLDAG, former EU correspondent in Brussels for the Süddeutsche Zeitung and HANS-MARTIN TILLACK, Stern’s correspondent in the EU capital, know the inner life of the European Union very well.

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – It is not only the German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder who has recently decided to go his own way in international politics. Two well-known German journalists are now going beyond the pale, as well.

In a new 400-page book named "Raumschiff Brüssel - Wie die Demokratie in Europa scheitert" (The Brussels Spaceship - How Democracy Fails in Europe), to be published on Tuesday, they paint a damaging insider portrait of the European Union.

The two authors, Andreas Oldag, a former Brussels correspondent for the Süddeutsche Zeitung and Hans-Martin Tillack, Stern’s current correspondent in the EU capital, know the inner life of the European Union very well. The book explains in detail, and with numerous examples, how the European institutions function – or more precisely how they do not function.

No person or institution is singled out for the failures and malfunctioning of the European Union. Mr Tillack and Mr Oldag find fault with the system as a whole.

Each topic is dealt with in a separate chapter. There include ones on the Commission, the Council, the Parliament, the EU summits, the Presidencies, the governments and the Convention on the Future of Europe. The book manages to give a real insight into the inner working of the different institutions and their complicated interaction in Brussels.

Tips for newcomers in Brussels
The book does not tell anything that is new for most bureaucrats and correspondents in the "space centre" Brussels. But much of the information might be interesting for people outside.

Before entering the EU, for example, it might be helpful for diplomats in the 10 new member states to know that representatives may only speak at council meetings if they are opposed to proposals. This was something the Austrians were unaware of in their first council meetings

Another useful tip for newcomers might be that the officials from the Northern part of Europe normally show up in office at eight in the morning to take their turn of the day and insist on leaving at five. The first Southerners are not likely to be seen before 9 in the morning and have no problems with staying late in the evening. So whether a decision is passed easily or not can depend on whether a meeting is scheduled for 8am or 6pm.

Prodi - a weak president
The Commission President Romano Prodi is portrayed as very weak. The book lists his notorious slip-ups such as when he called the Stability and Growth Pact stupid and when he implied to the Irish that it did not matter what they voted in the Nice Treaty as enlargement would go ahead anyway.

On the big-bang enlargement with a planned 10 new countries to enter the EU on 1 May 2004, the authors claim that everybody in Brussels knows the major risks – but they are not being discussed. The European Union is in major crisis and 25 members could bring about collapse, the book warns.

Lacking political opposition and a critical press
The book also tells of journalists in Brussels, who are not working entirely in the interest of their readers but also as heralds for the European idea.

It is not that the Brussels-based bureaucrats are any better or worse than their counterparts at home. The difference is that those in Brussels are not living under the constant pressure of having a political opposition or a critical press.

The fundamental failures in the structures of the European Union cause many absurdities but because the system is not scrutinised enough, these errors are not corrected.

"It is not those responsible for mismanagement, irregularities and self-service mentality who are punished in Brussels, but those who point to the problems," the book says.

Criticism and opposition may not be pleasant, but without it the European Union is at major risk.

Scandals and absurdities
"Raumschiff Brüssel" refers to the many scandals and ridiculous situations which have occurred over the last years in the EU - from the fall of the Santer Commission in 1999 to the disputed perks and payments systems for officials and politicians.

It is revealed how boring Commission meetings are and how the heads of states behave behind the well-guarded and opaque European summits.

What happened in the late night hours at the Nice summit? What is ANTICI - the famous system developed to communicate the latest disputes and decisions inside the summits to the officials at lower level who do not have a seat inside the meeting room.

What is the Concour - the system where the EU in 1998 alone examined 30,000 candidates hoping to become the highly-paid EU officials of the future, only 475 were employed in the end. How are they chosen?

The book sheds light on these and many other questions.

The empty cockpit of the space ship
Now, who is in charge of this huge system which has stripped national parliaments of much of their power and hidden them inside very complicated decision-making structures meaning that few understand what is really going on?

According to the book, 50 per cent of all legislation originates in Brussels. 360,000 journeys are made to the EU capital every year as part of working groups preparing for council decisions. In the Council, only 15-20% of decisions are taken by ministers, 80-85% of European legislation is agreed among civil servants.

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http://www.euobserver.com/index.phtml?aid=10557

This crushing desire to show that the EU is failing has to have come from somewhere. It is actually nothing new


US sees Europe integration as threat
The United States, for decades after World War Two an ardent supporter of European integration, increasingly sees closer unity on the continent as a threat, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt said on Tuesday. Mr Verhofstadt wrote in a column in Germany's Handelsblatt business daily that the United States saw the euro as a competitor to the dollar and European Union moves for more defence cooperation as a threat to Us global dominance. He said the EU, taking in 10 new members next year, wanted a bigger voice on the world stage and to be treated as an equal partner, not a competitor, by the United States. "The international emancipation of the EU is as unavoidable as it is desirable," Mr Verhofstadt wrote. The Belgian premier was due to deliver a speech in Berlin on the EU later on Tuesday. "I regret that the United States now all too often sees integration as orientated against its own interests," he said. "This distrust is a break with Us policy in the first four decades of European integration," he said. "Up until the start of the 1990s, the United States encouraged Europe to integrate."

http://www.lidiotduvillage.com/article.php3?id_article=2024

Reuters