NationStates Jolt Archive

My latest magazine that I am subscribing to is Foreign Affairs. An essay was written by one of my favorite essayists, Francis Fukuyama. Among what he said was that North Korea was prone to collapse. That got me thinking. You see, Kim Jong-Il derives a significant amount of power from his personal cult. There are actually stories that people died saving portraits of Kim Jong-Il during that train crash a few months back. So should a hit team be sent to North Korea? If so, who would be best disposed to do it? What would happen afterwards? Would North Korea collapse, or would a new leader seize power?

Oh, I also forgot to add that I'm very hawkish when it comes to Korea. But I am now thinking that this may be just as effective as a war, but at a lower human and economic cost.

Delta force hunter-killer team.

My latest magazine that I am subscribing to is Foreign Affairs. An essay was written by one of my favorite essayists, Francis Fukuyama. Among what he said was that North Korea was prone to collapse. That got me thinking. You see, Kim Jong-Il derives a significant amount of power from his personal cult. There are actually stories that people died saving portraits of Kim Jong-Il during that train crash a few months back. So should a hit team be sent to North Korea? If so, who would be best disposed to do it? What would happen afterwards? Would North Korea collapse, or would a new leader seize power?

North Korea would collapse and the humanitarian insanity to follow would be equal to Iraq and the Indian tsunami thing combined.

EDIT:

I can only imagine what kind of new mental disorders might have surfaced in this place.

North Korea would collapse and the humanitarian insanity to follow would be equal to Iraq and the Indian tsunami thing combined.
We can handle it. The world can quickly mobilize billions of dollars to North Korea, and I'm sure that the regional governments plus the US would donate. South Korean troops would oversee distribution. But I wonder if there will be an insurgency in that country. If so, it'd probably be worse than Iraq, as the insurgents would hide in the mountains. Nevertheless, c. 1 million troops should be able to secure an area the size of Mississippi.

For gods sake leave North Korea alone, anything anyone does is only going to make everything a whole lot worse, trying to forcibly remove a personality cult is just stupid you have to let them die naturally or choas will ensue, and no amount of long term raod maps to peace will help you.

EDIT: North Korea is not a threat to the rest of the world if its left alone, and can i just say to the pweson who posted above.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, remove your i love the world goggles and think for a moment, if we rush in there and start poking North Korea about all we're going to do is cause trouble, billions of dollars my hide, the North Koreans i guarantee you would end up even poorer than they are now.

Ahh, the bliss of naïveté

Hmm . . . I'd like to see Kim gone, but not through an assassination - if people revere the guy that much I think it would cause widespread chaos through NK

I see him as a butcher who starves the hell out of his people and spends all his money on his nuclear program and the army. You fill in the blanks. I'd prefer a revolution of the people of North Korea to finish him but I doubt that 'ell happen soon.

Actually,

I can't name the guy but he was was involved there.

He said that assassination was a bad idea!

KJII at least looks at the world(ie the Net) and is interest in things.

There are some generals that could take over and he said they make JKII look like a sweet man.....

Hmm . . . I'd like to see Kim gone, but not through an assassination - if people revere the guy that much I think it would cause widespread chaos through NK
Oh it would initially. But I think that people will realize very quickly that Kim Jong-Il was not divine. That being said, the widespread chaos should settle down after a few months, and it would not spread south of the 38th parallel (which will probably be left with its mines and fences for quite some time.

Actually,

I can't name the guy but he was was involved there.

He said that assassination was a bad idea!

KJII at least looks at the world(ie the Net) and is interest in things.

There are some generals that could take over and he said they make JKII look like a sweet man.....
However, any new leader would not have the time to secure power before their was a national uprising that threatened his rule. The military might not even support him, thinking that the "Dear Leader" might issue orders from beyond the grave.

The North Korean regime is a truly amazing one, what they have manged to do with their poor people is astonishing and im sure the USA is taking notes right now. But i must tell you that there is true feeling there that Kim is their rightful leader not only based on some kind of shinto but proper deep rooted belief in him. I dont believe he's a threat to anyone but his people, IF HES LEFT ALONE. And im afraid his people will suffer whether aomeone steps in or not, at leaqst under him they have basic amenities.

thinking that the "Dear Leader" might issue orders from beyond the grave.

How much do you know about the personality Cult in North Korea?

The North Korean regime is a truly amazing one, what they have manged to do with their poor people is astonishing and im sure the USA is taking notes right now. But i must tell you that there is true feeling there that Kim is their rightful leader not only based on some kind of shinto but proper deep rooted belief in him. I dont believe he's a threat to anyone but his people, IF HES LEFT ALONE. And im afraid his people will suffer whether aomeone steps in or not, at leaqst under him they have basic amenities.
Especially when Kim Jong Il and his father engineered a giant famine, or cutting the power generation capacity by half. He can easily get food and fuel, but importing them is apparantly too big of a threat. How can life get any worse for those people?

They can die, and a lot of them will if we interfere (more of course than do already) im not saying the current regime is good, but its the best that can at them moment be hoped for. I dont want to see another country slip under.

However, any new leader would not have the time to secure power before their was a national uprising that threatened his rule. The military might not even support him, thinking that the "Dear Leader" might issue orders from beyond the grave.

Actually, they already believe his dad does. Kim Il Sung is Korea's 'Eternal Leader', and Kim Jong Il only rules in practice.

How much do you know about the personality Cult in North Korea?
I've read a little on it. Kim Jong-Il tries to portray himself as the best, strongest, and smartest human beign that has ever lived, and has glorified himself by surrounding his life with religious symbology. For example, his birth was, according to him, on a mountain associated by Koreans with the creation of the Earth. When he was born, as he goes on, the stars fell out of the sky. He also glorifies his father's role in the Japanese resistence (even though Kim Il-Sung was simply a Soviet puppet). A cult based on a single person is a cult of fools, or in the North Koreans' case, a cult of the brainwashed.

They can die, and a lot of them will if we interfere (more of course than do already) im not saying the current regime is good, but its the best that can at them moment be hoped for. I dont want to see another country slip under.
I think the South Korean government would be far better for the North. Besides, assuming that the South absorbs the North Korean military into their's, a million people will be fed, standards of living will instantly rise (assuming they get benefits), and any operation afterwards can be done with a North Korean face.

Well Kim will probably die of his own excesses before his time, I haven't heard if he's fathered any children. If he has and they're old enough they'll slide into power, if not the strongest general will get the slot.

I don't see it leading to a collapse of NK communism. The Stalin cult was just as bad and communism hung on for half a century after he was gone.

Let me also say that the damage would be less with the full support of the Asian quintet, being Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the US. I believe that with diplomatic coordination, damage would be minimal.

The North Korean regime is a truly amazing one, what they have manged to do with their poor people is astonishing and im sure the USA is taking notes right now. But i must tell you that there is true feeling there that Kim is their rightful leader not only based on some kind of shinto but proper deep rooted belief in him. I dont believe he's a threat to anyone but his people, IF HES LEFT ALONE. And im afraid his people will suffer whether aomeone steps in or not, at leaqst under him they have basic amenities.

Number 1: You are an idiot
Number 2: The North Koreans are brainwashed from birth to believe kim jong il is the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Number 3: He is the greatest threat to his people, see #4
Number 4: the psycho is more than willing to let his people starve and freeze to death. basic amenities are all his people can hope for, and thats only if the army doesn't take them all.
Number 5: The North Korean people deserve a better life then what they have under that troll of a leader.
Number 6: You are an idiot

Let us for the moment assume it is a good idea to kill KJI (I tend to think so anyway).

Consider the practical aspects of getting it done. It is hard, probably a lot harder than you realize.

You get a team in - how? You can have them walk over from South Korea, land them on the coast, or airdrop - all of which have a chance of detection, and don't get you all that close. They would stand out, being non-asian and about a foot taller than everyone. You need to get them to KJI's palace or wherever he resides. He probably has a mile or more of security buffer zone, and thousands of guards in the immediate vicinity. How many people do you have in your team? How are they armed? Can they really get into a well-defended facility that they probably don't have a map of before the thousands of guards swarm over them? I think not.

The only practical way to kill KJI is with a tactical nuke.

Then again, knowing him, his palace is probably in the middle of a city.

Let us for the moment assume it is a good idea to kill KJI (I tend to think so anyway).
Consider the practical aspects of getting it done. It is hard, probably a lot harder than you realize.

You get a team in - how? You can have them walk over from South Korea, land them on the coast, or airdrop - all of which have a chance of detection, and don't get you all that close. They would stand out, being non-asian and about a foot taller than everyone. You need to get them to KJI's palace or wherever he resides. He probably has a mile or more of security buffer zone, and thousands of guards in the immediate vicinity. How many people do you have in your team? How are they armed? Can they really get into a well-defended facility that they probably don't have a map of before the thousands of guards swarm over them? I think not.

The only practical way to kill KJI is with a tactical nuke.
Then again, knowing him, his palace is probably in the middle of a city.

Okay, so in theory we're killing KJI, we'll suppose for a minute we're not sending in Robert Evans to do it too. His patterns would have to be recognized, doubles taken into account, security avoided or nutralized, and the kill confirmed. The best way then is to strike while he is en-route between locations or while arriving at a public event. Both have serious drawbacks. The alternative is to destory utterly a localtion he confirmed to be at.

En-route is the most obvious, since it prevents static defenses or heavy crowds from getting in the way, but its also the easiest way to fool the attackers. Decoys, traps, doubles, all highly probably from a paranoid and slightly crazy dictator.

The tac nuke option is just absurd, needless and almost certain to lead to retaliation. Even a low-yield device carries an enourmous political cost; far more than a simple assassination attempt. Destroying his convoy with a cruise missle or a conventional warhead would be just as effective, there are bunker busters in our conventional stocks should we decide to level a bunker or secure location.

Personally I don't think assassinations are likely from the outside anyway, FAR too little is known about the nation to even guess how many doubles KJI has, where he goes, when he goes there, or how long he stays.

Okay, so in theory we're killing KJI, we'll suppose for a minute we're not sending in Robert Evans to do it too. His patterns would have to be recognized, doubles taken into account, security avoided or nutralized, and the kill confirmed. The best way then is to strike while he is en-route between locations or while arriving at a public event. Both have serious drawbacks. The alternative is to destory utterly a localtion he confirmed to be at.

En-route is the most obvious, since it prevents static defenses or heavy crowds from getting in the way, but its also the easiest way to fool the attackers. Decoys, traps, doubles, all highly probably from a paranoid and slightly crazy dictator.

The tac nuke option is just absurd, needless and almost certain to lead to retaliation. Even a low-yield device carries an enourmous political cost; far more than a simple assassination attempt. Destroying his convoy with a cruise missle or a conventional warhead would be just as effective, there are bunker busters in our conventional stocks should we decide to level a bunker or secure location.

Personally I don't think assassinations are likely from the outside anyway, FAR too little is known about the nation to even guess how many doubles KJI has, where he goes, when he goes there, or how long he stays.

You raise some good points. I agree, en route is probably the best option. A second-best may be at a major event such as a speech.

Okay, suppose you have several agents on the ground for direct observation, they either illuminate the target with a laser designator or feed GPS coordinates or both. However there are some big problems in using cruise missiles. First they are subsonic and can be intercepted by missiles or aircraft, and they certainly show up on radar. I think the PRC defenses might be able to catch maybe two-thirds of a ten-missile salvo. Second, they have a long time of flight, about two hours (!) at max range and maybe 15-20 minutes at minimum practical ranges... the latest generation (which has only been available for a year) can be reprogrammed in flight, but it takes time... it would be damn hard to score a close hit on a moving target. You obviously can't overfly with planes, that's way too dangerous. What you need is more along the lines of a 120mm laser-guided mortar. You can hide one or two of those in the general area, say within 15km, and when the time comes you can hit with a dozen shells within seconds. And then you have to bug out.

Come to think of it, even if such an attempt does not succeed it would be very useful... and there's no reason it can't be repeated, is there?