NationStates Jolt Archive

I have come to the conclusion that it is possible that George W. Bush did not win Ohio in the election, and hence should not be President for a second term. My conclusion is based in part on statistical information in a paper published by the University of Pennsylvania. The paper was cited by another in an article below:

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/Expldiscrpv00oPt1.pdf

Not content with merely reading a paper from a supposed university, I made sure to locate the website of this university to confirm it is in good academic standing, which it appears to be. (http://www.upenn.edu)

If you've never taken a statistics class, then the paper may be a little confusing. But the gist of it is that the odds of the exit polls in Ohio being as wrong as they apparently were are small. In fact, you'd have better odds of winning a derby whilst riding a horse with two broken legs.

What the paper suggests is that the results COULD be wrong, indeed likely ARE wrong. But WHY they are wrong is a matter open to conjecture. I myself suspect that Bush's supporters went over the line to ensure his re-election, but that the President's campaign itself was not involved. There's no smoking gun here to say, "HEY! THERE WAS ELECTION FRAUD!"

But there IS troubling data that needs to be resolved, given the fact that we are talking about the election of a president. I urge my fellow Americans in general and Ohioans in particular to read this paper. Then write everybody they can get their hands on. If there was cheating, it cannot be allowed to succeed.

Guys, let's face it. The world is going to be stuck with Bush + the imperialist gang for four more years.

I don't even have to look at the sites to question the election since I was watching the polling live right with most everyone here.

The exit polls and 'actual' results were waaay off just by looking at the pie chart. They just don't fluctuate that wildly.

Surprising the media hasn't jumped on this like they should. Would make a great story.

We lost, face it, they elected him even if we did win that vote(which we didn't) we still would have lost the popular vote, which granted would have been horribly ironic, but the people wanted him.

Actually there were several flaws with the exit polls. Amongst the flaws were that they were too heavily weighted towards urban areas, when in reality, the areas which had a very high rate of growth were not the urban areas, but the suburban and rural areas. And the balancing act that they do to figure it out was off.

The exit polls also had too many female voters. Who traditionally vote more heavily democrat.

But, please tell, me. How can an incomplete poll, which only asked SOME people be incorrect when compared with the election that asked all the voters.

It wasnt about fraud. Kerry's a quitter. I respect Gore because even when he lsot, he lost fighting. Kerry threw in the towel right away and didn't even back up his VP, who wanted to count every damned vote in Ohio. It would have been worth a shot, even if it were a lost cause; after all, what did he have to lose? Besides, it would have given Bush's second term less legitimacy, with that many more people believing he didn't really win.

The Democrats need to pick fighters. They need people with charisma. They need to pick people who pay attention to the polls but aren't slaves to them; they need people who don't come off as flip-floppers. They also need the awesome power of James Carville. Clinton utilized Carville and campaigned like a champion. It takes someone like him to bring down the Bush machine.

Guys, let's face it. The world is going to be stuck with Bush + the imperialist gang for four more years.

Had Kerry not conceded, there might be hope, but he passed on the opportunity to question the results. So should we all.

I have come to the conclusion that it is possible that George W. Bush did not win Ohio in the election, and hence should not be President for a second term. My conclusion is based in part on statistical information in a paper published by the University of Pennsylvania. The paper was cited by another in an article below:


Glad you decided it ... now that we got that solved

I have come to the conclusion that it is possible that George W. Bush did not win Ohio in the election, and hence should not be President for a second term. My conclusion is based in part on statistical information in a paper published by the University of Pennsylvania. The paper was cited by another in an article below:

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/Expldiscrpv00oPt1.pdf

Not content with merely reading a paper from a supposed university, I made sure to locate the website of this university to confirm it is in good academic standing, which it appears to be. (http://www.upenn.edu)

If you've never taken a statistics class, then the paper may be a little confusing. But the gist of it is that the odds of the exit polls in Ohio being as wrong as they apparently were are small. In fact, you'd have better odds of winning a derby whilst riding a horse with two broken legs.

What the paper suggests is that the results COULD be wrong, indeed likely ARE wrong. But WHY they are wrong is a matter open to conjecture. I myself suspect that Bush's supporters went over the line to ensure his re-election, but that the President's campaign itself was not involved. There's no smoking gun here to say, "HEY! THERE WAS ELECTION FRAUD!"

But there IS troubling data that needs to be resolved, given the fact that we are talking about the election of a president. I urge my fellow Americans in general and Ohioans in particular to read this paper. Then write everybody they can get their hands on. If there was cheating, it cannot be allowed to succeed.
Get out your tin foil hats, folks . . .

Not unless the republicans managed to falsify about 56,000 or so votes. Possible, but highly unlikely.

Reading the paper, I so far, without seeing his Part 2, see nothing indicating any sort of fraud. His first table showed 11 battleground states, with 10 of them showing Bush doing better than the predicted results. I believe some of those states actually have Democratic governors? Are you seriously suggesting that fraud took place on that massive a scale? And look who's calling the kettle black? Election workers in Philadelphia arrived early on election day and noticed something curious - several thousand votes already tallied on some of their voting machines - oops! And here's a telling quote, which proves the paper is nothing more than wishful conjecture, from the paper:
"In summary, I'd rather have NEP data, but no one is going to see those until well into 2005 ... that said, I believe this CNN data are good, and can be used to generate some highly suggestive findings."

"Without access to the data and methodology, we cannot model the sample characteristics precisely."

He picks and chooses, decides CNN's data best supports his theory, and then undercuts the validity of his own argument by stating he does not even know the methodology, much less the actual data, upon which he is basing his statistical findings.

yeah.....Bush isnt the rightful president.....and Adolf Hitler is still alive and currently living in New Mexico....please just accept the truth instead of making up things

yeah.....Bush isnt the rightful president.....and Adolf Hitler is still alive and currently living in New Mexico....please just accept the truth instead of making up things
And Elvis has left the building . . .

I'm still pissed about the 2000 election. He didn't win then, and now he's screwing it up for another 4 years that he didn't deserve.

I'm still pissed about the 2000 election. He didn't win then, and now he's screwing it up for another 4 years that he didn't deserve.
There are 3 million more people that believe he does than believe he doesn't.

There are 3 million more people that believe he does than believe he doesn't.
Never mind, you were too dense to get my point, I guess.

Never mind, you were too dense to get my point, I guess.
Then by all means, enlighten me.

Never mind, you were too dense to get my point, I guess.
Fits ... specialy with someone who appears too dense to make the point

Get out your tin foil hats, folks . . .
:upyours: Keep drinking the Kool-Aid...

:upyours: Keep drinking the Kool-Aid...
Me and something like 60,600,000 others ...
My, a little bitter, aren't we?

Whatever you do probably will not change anything so just sit back and enjoy the ride and try again in 4 years.