NationStates Jolt Archive

Do you think that the Iraqi elections comming up later this month will be good for Iraq?

I want to think that they will, but I honesty dont know. Iran has accused the US and Israel of rigging the elections to make it better for us. And Jordan's King accused Iran of trying to influence the elections to make it better for them. He says that over 1 million Iranians have gone into Iraq to vote in the election to influence the vote to make it more Iranian friendly.

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What I find amusing is the assumption that once the elections are held, all hostilities will cease.

Sure, unless their is fraud, which is 99.99% likely, whatever happens it will be 300 times worse than what happened in Ukraine.

It will show them the way to Democracy. whether or not they stay the course is entirely up to them.

What I find amusing is the assumption that once the elections are held, all hostilities will cease.

Here, here!

As if an election to terrorists will be like garlic to Dracula.

if the elected leader is someone the gorillas don't like they will probably find a way to kill him... unfortunatly

It will show them the way to Democracy. whether or not they stay the course is entirely up to them.

What a load of garbage. You should write speeches for politicians.

The Iraqis want a real democracy. They also want the US out. "Staying the course" doesn't even enter the scenario since terrorists will likely bomb the Hell out of polling stations and everyone who values their lives will intend to stay clear of them on election day. Big problems and Catch-22s abound.

The main problem here is if the elections will even be valid or even HELD.

If it happens, it will be for the betterment of Iraq. But that's a pretty damn big if.

I think that we should shut down the streets where polling statsions are. That would eliminate the problem of car bombs. And we put snipers on roof tops around, just incase. And Armed gaurds at polling places, at least 10 per station.

I think the question should be will the elections due any good in Iraq.

I think the question should be will the elections due any good in Iraq.

that pretty much what it says.

What I find amusing is the assumption that once the elections are held, all hostilities will cease.

And just who is making such "assumptions?"

Sure, unless their is fraud, which is 99.99% likely, whatever happens it will be 300 times worse than what happened in Ukraine.

Sounds like the naysayers before the elections in Afghanistan. :headbang:

1) You either have elections or dont
2) IF you dont have elections, well then just bring saddam back, it would be better
3) If you have elections, things either go right or wrong
4) IF these elections go alright, you will still have to wait two or three more elections in iraq to see if the democracy spirit in the country is set in (that is like wait 15 more years)
5) If elections dont go alright, then you may have further uprising against the US, civil war, etc.

Now, in these elections you will have a truck load of candidates:
- Your local religious zealot
- US supported guys
- Other people

The only ones that stand a chance are the religious people, and the US supported guys. With 80% of the population, the shiites will control the goverment. It is likely that one of them will go to power. You have the US supported guys, but even if these win fairly, it is likely that their victory wont be recognized. Hell, whoever wins will have to sell is ass to have is victory recognized. Most likely, you will have national unity goverments. That would sound fine, except that you have the sunnis. And these wont accept the outcome, whatever that one may be. So 20% of the population will be against you, after the elections. And it is possible that many shiites wont accept the outcome (Al sadr anyone?), whatever that may be. So the elections will be a big if.
Know that in the best case scenario, the US will still have to stay more 20 years in iraq to be able to proclaim it established a stable democracy in the middle east. Much will change before that. But that is the future, not on our hands.

People said that the elections in Afghanistan were going to be bad, but infact they went smoothly. And the very first ballot casted was an Afgani woman.

People said that the elections in Afghanistan were going to be bad, but infact they went smoothly. And the very first ballot casted was an Afgani woman.

As important as the elections, is the aftermath of the elections.

Word as it, that you cant leave kabul, because afghanistan is still just too dangerous.


edit: Okay, perhaps im pessimist. But we can only prove i am wrong in the long run.. so..

Apparently there was widespread cheating during the Afghani elections, the BBC reported it but I didn't see it anywhere else. But "our man" Kharzai won so no-one really cared enough to investigate.

that pretty much what it says.


Well not exactly. The question actually has a taint of optimism, like things can actually get better for Iraq. I see the elections as problematic, depending on how it goes the situation could be much worse for the US and far more violent in Iraq.

1) You either have elections or dont
2) IF you dont have elections, well then just bring saddam back, it would be better
3) If you have elections, things either go right or wrong
4) IF these elections go alright, you will still have to wait two or three more elections in iraq to see if the democracy spirit in the country is set in (that is like wait 15 more years)
5) If elections dont go alright, then you may have further uprising against the US, civil war, etc.

Now, in these elections you will have a truck load of candidates:
- Your local religious zealot
- US supported guys
- Other people

The only ones that stand a chance are the religious people, and the US supported guys. With 80% of the population, the shiites will control the goverment. It is likely that one of them will go to power. You have the US supported guys, but even if these win fairly, it is likely that their victory wont be recognized. Hell, whoever wins will have to sell is ass to have is victory recognized. Most likely, you will have national unity goverments. That would sound fine, except that you have the sunnis. And these wont accept the outcome, whatever that one may be. So 20% of the population will be against you, after the elections. And it is possible that many shiites wont accept the outcome (Al sadr anyone?), whatever that may be. So the elections will be a big if.
Know that in the best case scenario, the US will still have to stay more 20 years in iraq to be able to proclaim it established a stable democracy in the middle east. Much will change before that. But that is the future, not on our hands.

The elections are not going to end the rebellion. They will be as effective in doing so as the elections in South Vietnam were at ending that conflict.

Success of democracy in Iraq depends on how the rebellion is ended. If (as appears likely) Bush wishes for a large Iraqi internal security force to do the bloody and brutal crushing the rebellion, then the newly elected government is likely to become rather unpopular for doing the American's dirty work. This unpopular government will however have at it's disposal a large, brutal, bloodied internal security force. Such governments generally do not favor democracy.

How can you have a free democratic country.

When you have foreign armies, walking down the street and in control. Really any election is a joke untill after the imperialists leave.

Let's just say that we get the Iraqis to have 55% turnout nationwide. And by pure chance a fairly secular government is elected. I'd say under those conditions we'd see a gradual drop in violence, since the government will be more Iraqi than the American installed governments.

Admittedly the impact won't be immediate, and their probably will be a sudden upsurge in attacks, but after that the number will slow, and the insurgents who just fight in their hometowns with the belief that they're defending them will probably also be made more calm.

And an arguement that the elections will have sufficient turnout is the fact that we still find long lines at Iraqi army and police recruitment centers, even though those lines, and the soldiers after recruitment are heavily targeted by terrorists.

The US will be in Iraq for at least another decade, but this is the first step in a long complex design towards being able to pacify the coutnry.

Democracy cannot work in Iraq, the elections will do nothing but split the nation even more, while continuing to propagate a weak central government.

ever eat at arbies? they put fetus in the chili.

Democracy cannot work in Iraq, the elections will do nothing but split the nation even more, while continuing to propagate a weak central government.

I wish I were this concise. Bravo.