NationStates Jolt Archive

For the moment, anyhow. But hopefully, South Korea will continue its moratorium on illegal nuclear activity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a..54F3Aqem4&refer=us
So now, we don't have to worry about a region-wide arms race.

That's nuclear arms race. The often-overlooked naval arms race in that region is greater than anything seen since the middle years of the cold war. Pretty much every country with interests in the South China Sea is stocking up on surface warships and missile technology.

That's nuclear arms race. The often-overlooked naval arms race in that region is greater than anything seen since the middle years of the cold war. Pretty much every country with interests in the South China Sea is stocking up on surface warships and missile technology.
However, that is farther south. I'm talking about the area around North East Asia, being China, Russia, Japan, the two Koreas, and possibly Taiwan.The South China Sea is little more than a local dispute, and considering the interconnectedness of the Asian economies, I doubt anyone will let it go beyond just that: a dispute.

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan actually have by far the greatest interests in the South China Sea - energy security. It is where over three quarters of their oil passes through, on its way from the ME Gulf, and LNG from Indonesia. Should China and Vietnam or Indonesia and someone else have a squabble over some reef and the interpretation of UN maritime property law, believe me the big guys up north will get involved. Even a one week disruption of trade routes will mean a massive screw up of their finely balanced energy logistics. Their economic interconnectedness isn't going to count for much if yet another one of the increasingly frequent naval confrontations there, results in tankers being forced to take a detour and lights going off in one of their cities.

You are wrong, the naval buildup there is worrying and very unhelpful.

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan actually have by far the greatest interests in the South China Sea - energy security. It is where over three quarters of their oil passes through, on its way from the ME Gulf, and LNG from Indonesia. Should China and Vietnam or Indonesia and someone else have a squabble over some reef and the interpretation of UN maritime property law, believe me the big guys up north will get involved. Even a one week disruption of trade routes will mean a massive screw up of their finely balanced energy logistics. Their economic interconnectedness isn't going to count for much if yet another one of the increasingly frequent naval confrontations there, results in tankers being forced to take a detour and lights going off in one of their cities.

You are wrong, the naval buildup there is worrying and very unhelpful.
That is only one battlefield of this drama, and it may not be the most important in the near future. The countries in the north are now fighting for oil supplies from Russia. On top of that, however, no country except Malaysia is in Asia, and a net exporter of oil or gas. Japan and South Korea have virtually no domestic reserves. So I fail to see how this is a big concern. Sooner or later, the separate countries will realize that it is more to all of their interests to work together on this issue.

I think everyone in asia should buy a puppy, except not eat it this time. This would help them understand that 2+2=22

Or they may continue to pursue individual import agreements and view uninterrupted tanker traffic as a national security issue. Thus a badly timed naval p---- sizing contest between a pair of countries, has the potential to seriously piss off a third party.

Or they may continue to pursue individual import agreements and view uninterrupted tanker traffic as a national security issue. Thus a badly timed naval p---- sizing contest between a pair of countries, has the potential to seriously piss off a third party.
That, however, has the potential to happen anywhere, at any time. You're just more worried about it because you work in the energy industry, and your belief that the free market can't save us from your industry's doom and gloom scenario.

True, but it makes sense to consider worst case scenarios. It's why any decent electrical power system will have a ridiculous amount of failsafes and redundancy built in. Energy security's enemy is complacency. :)

True, but it makes sense to consider worst case scenarios. It's why any decent electrical power system will have a ridiculous amount of failsafes and redundancy built in. Energy security's enemy is complacency. :)
Everything's worst enemy is complacency. But the worst case scenario is only what can happen, and not necessarily what will happen. I guess I'm a die hard optimist at heart.

And I did look up a bit about this arms race. Half of the reason behind this is just simply prestige. China has always wanted a navy, and now has the money to build a decent one. Now the other countries are spooked into doing the same thing, and trying to show that they are not a tributary state of China's. The thing I worry about most, however, is that it is naval. My country, the US, has the world's only blue-water navy. Sure, the UK can send an aircraft carrier to bomb the hell outta the US if it really wanted to, but such an operation could never sustain itself more than a month. The US can sustain it for as long as they want. But our naval hardware is quite numerous and advanced, and the Chinese are not traditionally seaferring, nor do they place as great an emphasis on their navy as the US. So I guess I shouldn't worry too much.

When will all these countries realize that the US is the only country responsible enough to have a nuclear arsenal?

When will all these countries realize that the US is the only country responsible enough to have a nuclear arsenal?
Don't know. Next.

Just because they may not have nuclear weapons now, does not prevent them from buying them or components on the black market or obtaining them through other means.

Instead of focusing on an arms race or naval race, the world should take care to try and do something to alleviate the tension between North and South Korea before they threaten to destroy each other and leave the rest of their region in wake of their destruction.

Just because they may not have nuclear weapons now, does not prevent them from buying them or components on the black market or obtaining them through other means.

Instead of focusing on an arms race or naval race, the world should take care to try and do something to alleviate the tension between North and South Korea before they threaten to destroy each other and leave the rest of their region in wake of their destruction.
Preventing South Korea from acquiring nukes, however, serves to keep the problem under control. Besides, if the North uses nukes, then the US response will be on par with Armageddon.
As for resolving the crisis, I personally favor an invasion of the north, but that's just me.

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